Goldfish's Way Too Early Draft Rankings 2024 (All Up)

[ramssuperbowl99]

6 minutes ago, onejayhawk said:

I think that is stone crazy. 

Missing the playoffs, maybe. Fewer than five wins, no way. The offense won't get worse and the defense should be much better.

I think they're in the 16-24 range by draft order, but very high on this list.

 

Edited May 10 by ramssuperbowl99

[onejayhawk]

Just now, ramssuperbowl99 said:

I think they're in the 16-24 range by draft order, but very high on this list.

That is not what you said earlier. 

Far from it.

[ramssuperbowl99]

1 minute ago, onejayhawk said:

That is not what you said earlier. 

Far from it.

Bolded it for you:

29 minutes ago, ramssuperbowl99 said:

I think Chicago should be one of the favorites to be high on this list next year.

Every year we see the same theme, teams that made bad decisions earlier pick near the top, have massive needs they can't address in FA, and pick a guy in the 1st round to plug a hole. Then, the Eagles/Steelers/Ravens/Pats/Packers take whoever is left because they didn't have any urgent needs. And they're good players in a good situation so they develop, which means those teams don't have needs, and the cycle repeats.

I bet they're picking in the 16-24 range so BPA is going to be a top 10-ish guy when 18 QB go in the 1st round again, and they have the Panthers pick plus their own in the 2nd so they can find pass rush or OL or whatever really easily in either spot.

Same thing you see in personal finance, rich people make better decisions with their money.

[goldfishwars]

19 hours ago, ramssuperbowl99 said:

I'm curious @goldfishwars have you taken your rankings and done any stats on how much draft capital corresponds to where they end up?

There definitely should be some positive correlation, but it'd be interesting if we think the r2 would be like 0.3 or 0.7, or what it should be in an "ideal ranking".

Yeah here you go, draft capital at the start of the draft by trade value versus where I ranked them. 

1. Arizona (9,462) - 4
2. Washington (8,419) -  6
3. Chicago (6,660) -  3
4. Los Angeles Chargers (6,445) -  7
5. New England (6,319) -  12
6. Atlanta (6,269) -  32
7. Green Bay (6,059) -  19
8. Minnesota (5,767) -  23
9. New York Giants (5,468) -  11
10. Cincinnati (5,428) -  8
11. Las Vegas (5,192) -  13
12. Philadelphia (5,107) -  2
13. Los Angeles Rams (5,106) -  10
14. Jacksonville (5,057) -  29
15. Tennessee (4,978) -  28
16. Pittsburgh (4,943) -  1
17. Carolina (4,922) -  27
18. Indianapolis (4,920) -  14
19. New Orleans (4,480) -  26
20. Tampa Bay (4,433) -  21
21. Denver (4,420) -  18
22. San Francisco (4,405) -  15
23. Baltimore (4,242) -  20
24. New York Jets (4,239) -  22
25. Buffalo (4,192) -  16
26. Seattle (4,072) -  17
27. Houston (3,938) -  30
28. Dallas (3,803) -  24
29. Kansas City (3,781) -  9
30. Detroit (3,758) -  5
31. Miami (3,467) -  25
32. Cleveland (2,088) -  31
 

Edited May 11 by goldfishwars

[goldfishwars]

More stats! Perceived value was only a small part of my evaluation, as scheme fit, price paid, need and, I don't know, just vibes were more important to how I felt about a class in general.

Top 50 Picks Versus My Pre-Draft Rank

1. Christian Mahogany | IOL | Boston College - Lions
2. Malik Washington | WR | Virginia - Dolphins
3. Michael Pratt | QB | Tulane - Packers
4. Mekhi Wingo | DL | LSU - Lions
5. Cornelius Johnson | WR | Michigan - Chargers
6. Kris Abrams-Draine | CB | Missouri - Broncos
7. Jaheim Bell | TE | Florida State - Patriots
8. Johnny Wilson | WR | Florida State - Eagles
9. Kalen King | CB | Penn State - Packers
10. Edefuan Ulofoshio | LB | Washington - Bills
11. Spencer Rattler | QB | South Carolina - Saints
12. Beaux Limmer | OC | Arkansas - Rams
13. Hunter Nourzad | OC | Penn State - Chiefs
14. Kamal Hadden | CB | Tennessee - Chiefs
15. DJ James | CB | Auburn - Seahawks
16. Jarvis Brownlee | CB | Louisville - Titans
17. Mohamed Kamara | EDGE | Colorado State - Dolphins
18. Dylan Laube | RB | New Hampshire - Raiders
19. Dominick Puni | OL | Kansas - 49ers
20. Brenden Rice | WR | USC - Chargers
21. Jaden Hicks | S | Washington State - Chiefs
22. Xavier Thomas | EDGE | Clemson - Cardinals
23. Christian Haynes | IOL | Connecticut - Seahawks
24. TJ Tampa | CB | Iowa St - Ravens
25. Troy Franklin | WR | Oregon - Broncos
26. Justin Rogers | DL | Auburn - Cowboys
27. Myles Harden | CB | South Dakota - Browns
28. Tyrone Tracy | RB | Purdue - Giants
29. Tanner Mclachlan | TE | Arizona - Bengals
30. Daequan Hardy  | CB | Penn State - Bills
31. Dylan McMahon | OC | North Carolina State - Eagles
32. Kitan Oladapo | S | Oregon State - Packers
33. Payton Wilson | LB | NC State - Steelers
34. Brandon Dorlus | DL | Oregon - Falcons
35. Theo Johnson | TE | Penn State - Giants
36. Khristian Boyd | DL | Northern Iowa - Saints
37. Javontae Jean-Baptiste | EDGE | Notre Dame - Commanders
38. Myles Cole | EDGE | Texas Tech - Jaguars
39. Caelen Carson | CB | Wake Forrest - Cowboys
40. Jared Wiley | TE | TCU - Chiefs
41. Cam Hart | CB | Notre Dame - Chargers
42. Javon Baker | WR | UCF - Patriots
43. Khyree Jackson | CB | Oregon - Vikings
44. MJ Devonshire | CB | Pittsburgh - Raiders
45. Sedrick Van Pran | OC | Georgia - Bills
46. Malik Mustapha | S | Wake Forest - 49ers
47. Austin Booker | EDGE | Kansas State - Bears
48. Junior Colson | LB | Michigan - Chargers
49. Jer'Zhan Newton | DL | Illinois - Commanders
50. Sataoa Laumea | OL | Utah - Seahawks
 

Top 50 Picks In Draft Capital Gained Versus My Pre-Draft Rank

1. Dominick Puni | OL | Kansas - 49ers
2. Jer'Zhan Newton | DL | Illinois - Commanders
3. Christian Mahogany | IOL | Boston College - Lions
4. Christian Haynes | IOL | Conneticut - Seahawks
5. Cooper DeJean | DB | Iowa - Eagles
6. Malik Washington | WR | Virginia - Dolphins
7. Kris Abrams-Draine | CB | Missouri - Broncos
8. Jackson Powers-Johnson | OL | Oregon - Raiders
9. Mekhi Wingo | DL | LSU - Lions
10. Graham Barton | OL | Duke - Buccaneers
11. Adonai Mitchell | WR | Texas - Colts
12. Troy Franklin | WR | Oregon - Broncos
13. Zach Frazier | IOL | West Virginia - Steelers
14. Junior Colson | LB | Michigan - Chargers
15. Kingsley Suamataia | OT | BYU - Chiefs
16. Spencer Rattler | QB | South Carolina - Saints
17. Edefuan Ulofoshio | LB | Washington - Bills
18. Byron Murphy II | DL | Texas - Seahawks
19. Quinyon Mitchell | CB | Toledo - Eagles
20. Payton Wilson | LB | NC State - Steelers
21. Jarvis Brownlee | CB | Louisville - Titans
22. Hunter Nourzad | OC | Penn State - Chiefs
23. Johnny Wilson | WR | Florida State - Eagles
24. Cooper Beebe | IOL | Kansas State - Cowboys
25. Jaden Hicks | S | Washington State - Chiefs
26. Michael Pratt | QB | Tulane - Packers
27. TJ Tampa | CB | Iowa St - Ravens
28. Mohamed Kamara | EDGE | Colorado State - Dolphins
29. Xavier Thomas | EDGE | Clemson - Cardinals
30. Theo Johnson | TE | Penn State - Giants
31. Brock Bowers | TE | Georgia - Raiders
32. Brandon Dorlus | DL | Oregon - Falcons
33. DJ James | CB | Auburn - Seahawks
34. Javon Baker | WR | UCF - Patriots
35. Khyree Jackson | CB | Oregon - Vikings
36. Kool-Aid McKinstry | CB | Alabama - Saints
37. Cornelius Johnson | WR | Michigan - Chargers
38. Keon Coleman | WR | Florida State - Bills
39. Trey Benson | RB | Florida State - Cardinals
40. Rome Odunze | WR | Washington - Bears
41. Jaheim Bell | TE | Florida State - Patriots
42. Troy Fautanu | OL | Washington - Steelers
43. Kamal Hadden | CB | Tennessee - Chiefs
44. Nate Wiggins | CB | Clemson - Ravens
45. Tyrone Tracy | RB | Purdue - Giants
46. Adisa Isaac | EDGE | Penn State - Ravens
47. Beaux Limmer | OC | Arkansas - Rams
48. Jared Wiley | TE | TCU - Chiefs
49. Terrion Arnold | CB | Alabama - Lions
50. Laiatu Latu | EDGE | UCLA - Colts
 

Bottom 50 Picks Versus My Pre-Draft Rank - Tbh more than a few here because I just didn't see them play - also don't necessarily think these are bad picks once you factor in scheme/likely usage etc

1. Tarheeb Still | CB | Maryland - Chargers
2. Jamal Hill | LB | Oregon - Texans
3. Tejhaun Palmer | WR | UAB - Cardinals
4. Keilan Robinson | RB | Texas - Jaguars
5. Micah Abraham | CB | Marshall - Colts
6. Michael Jerrell | OT | Findlay - Seahawks
7. Patrick McMorris | S | Cal - Dolphins
8. Marist Liufau | LB | Notre Dame - Cowboys
9. Ty'Ron Hopper | LB | Missouri - Packers
10. Joshua Karty | K | Stanford - Rams
11. Evan Williams | S | Oregon - Packers
12. Giovani Manu | OT | British Columbia - Lions
13. Jaden Davis | CB | Miami - Cardinals
14. Michael Jurgens | C | Wake Forest - Vikings
15. Levi Drake Rodriguez | DT | Texas A &M Commerce - Vikings
16. Solomon Byrd | EDGE | USC - Texans
17. AJ Barner | TE | Michigan - Seahawks
18. Daijahn Anthony | S | Mississippi - Bengals
19. Jonah Laulu | EDGE | Oklahoma - Colts
20. Jacob Monk | OC | Duke - Packers
21. Nick Samac | OC | Michigan State - Ravens
22. Tyrice Knight | LB | UTEP - Seahawks
23. Caedan Wallace | OT | Penn State - Patriots
24. Jawhar Jordan | RB | Louisville - Texans
25. Devaughn Vele | WR | Utah - Broncos
26. Jaylon Carlies | S | Missouri - Colts
27. Matt Goncalves | OL | Pittsburgh - Colts
28. Tip Reinman | TE | Illinois - Cardinals
29. Cam Little | K | Arkansas - Jaguars
30. Jaylen Key | S | Alabama - Jets
31. Tykee Smith | S | Georgia - Buccaneers
32. Josiah Ezirim | OT | Eastern Kentucky - Saints
33. Elijah Klein | OL | UTEP - Buccaneers
34. Tory Taylor | P | Iowa - Bears
35. Jaylan Ford | LB | Texas - Saints
36. Jordan Whittington | WR | Texas - Rams
37. Jarrian Jones | CB | Florida State - Jaguars
38. Jase McClellan | RB | Alabama - Falcons
39. Maason Smith | DL | LSU - Jaguars
40. Blake Fisher | OT | Notre Dame - Texans
41. Deantre Prince | CB | Mississippi - Jaguars
42. Jarrett Kingston | IOL | USC - 49ers
43. Nathan Thomas | OT | Louisiana - Cowboys
44. Ruke Orhorhoro | DL | Clemson - Falcons
45. Jordan Jefferson | DL | LSU - Jaguars
46. Zion Logue | DL | Georgia - Falcons
47. Zak Zinter | IOL | Michigan - Browns
48. Isaac Guerendo | RB | Louisville - 49ers
49. Patrick Paul | OT | Houston - Dolphins
50. Travis Clayton | OT | Basingstoke RFC - Bills
 

Bottom 50 Picks Versus My Pre-Draft Rank by Trade Value - Same caveat as above

1. Bo Nix | QB | Oregon - Broncos
2. Michael Penix Jr. | QB | Washington - Falcons
3. Ruke Orhorhoro | DL | Clemson - Falcons
4. JJ McCarthy | QB | Michigan - Vikings
5. Maason Smith | DL | LSU - Jaguars
6. Jayden Daniels | QB | LSU - Commanders
7. Caedan Wallace | OT | Penn State - Patriots
8. Marist Liufau | LB | Notre Dame - Cowboys
9. Kamari Lassiter | CB | Georgia - Texans
10. JC Latham | OT | Alabama - Titans
11. Chop Robinson | EDGE | Penn State - Dolphins
12. Ty'Ron Hopper | LB | Missouri - Packers
13. Blake Fisher | OT | Notre Dame - Texans
14. Xavier Worthy | WR | Texas - Chiefs
15. Matt Goncalves | OL | Pittsburgh - Colts
16. Tip Reinman | TE | Illinois - Cardinals
17. Patrick Paul | OT | Houston - Dolphins
18. Jordan Morgan | OT | Arizona - Packers
19. Xavier Legette | WR | South Carolina - Panthers
20. Evan Williams | S | Oregon - Packers
21. Tykee Smith | S | Georgia - Buccaneers
22. Jonathon Brooks | RB | Texas - Panthers
23. Cole Bishop | S | Utah - Bills
24. Taliese Fuaga | OT | Oregon State - Saints
25. Ricky Pearsall | WR | Florida - 49ers
26. Calen Bullock | S | USC - Texans
27. Tyrice Knight | LB | UTEP - Seahawks
28. Darius Robinson | DL | Missouri - Cardinals
29. AJ Barner | TE | Michigan - Seahawks
30. Jarrian Jones | CB | Florida State - Jaguars
31. Giovani Manu | OT | British Columbia - Lions
32. Edgerrin Cooper | LB | Texas A&M - Packers
33. Marshawn Kneeland | EDGE | Western Michigan - Cowboys
34. Delmar Glaze | OL | Maryland - Raiders
35. Zak Zinter | IOL | Michigan - Browns
36. Tarheeb Still | CB | Maryland - Chargers
37. Trevin Wallace | LB | Kentucky - Panthers
38. Amarius Mims | OT | Georgia - Bengals
39. Tory Taylor | P | Iowa - Bears
40. Layden Robinson | OL | Texas A&M - Patriots
41. Jordan Jefferson | DL | LSU - Jaguars
42. Cedric Gray | LB | North Carolina - Titans
43. Javon Foster | OT | Missouri - Jaguars
44. Luke McCaffrey | WR | Rice - Commanders
45. Isaac Guerendo | RB | Louisville - 49ers
46. Isaiah Adams | OL | Illinois - Cardinals
47. Jacob Monk | OC | Duke - Packers
48. McKinnley Jackson | DL | Texas A&M - Bengals
49. Bucky Irving | RB | Oregon - Buccaneers
50. Keilan Robinson | RB | Texas - Jaguars
 

 

[ramssuperbowl99]

1 hour ago, goldfishwars said:

Yeah here you go, draft capital at the start of the draft by trade value versus where I ranked them. 

1. Arizona (9,462) - 4
2. Washington (8,419) -  6
3. Chicago (6,660) -  3
4. Los Angeles Chargers (6,445) -  7
5. New England (6,319) -  12
6. Atlanta (6,269) -  32
7. Green Bay (6,059) -  19
8. Minnesota (5,767) -  23
9. New York Giants (5,468) -  11
10. Cincinnati (5,428) -  8
11. Las Vegas (5,192) -  13
12. Philadelphia (5,107) -  2
13. Los Angeles Rams (5,106) -  10
14. Jacksonville (5,057) -  29
15. Tennessee (4,978) -  28
16. Pittsburgh (4,943) -  1
17. Carolina (4,922) -  27
18. Indianapolis (4,920) -  14
19. New Orleans (4,480) -  26
20. Tampa Bay (4,433) -  21
21. Denver (4,420) -  18
22. San Francisco (4,405) -  15
23. Baltimore (4,242) -  20
24. New York Jets (4,239) -  22
25. Buffalo (4,192) -  16
26. Seattle (4,072) -  17
27. Houston (3,938) -  30
28. Dallas (3,803) -  24
29. Kansas City (3,781) -  9
30. Detroit (3,758) -  5
31. Miami (3,467) -  25
32. Cleveland (2,088) -  31
 

Thanks, I can grab the rest of the data. With 7 years of threads, I've got some other ideas that might be interesting to see, like how the GFW ranking compares to point differential in years 1, 2, 3, and 4 of a draft class, or how GFW ranking in one year compares to the next. Any other ideas?

First thought is that this strongly backs up what I think we all intuitively knew, that these rankings prioritize efficient use of draft capital. Still I'm a bit surprised, this is a smaller correlation than I expected. Unless teams spend their value wisely, they are only getting 20 cents on the dollar.

Second thought is Detroit and KC crushed it.

 

Edited May 11 by ramssuperbowl99

[squire12]

10 minutes ago, ramssuperbowl99 said:

Thanks, I can grab the rest of the data. With 7 years of threads, I've got some other ideas that might be interesting to see, like how the GFW ranking compares to point differential in years 1, 2, 3, and 4 of a draft class, or how GFW ranking in one year compares to the next. Any other ideas?

First thought is that this strongly backs up what I think we all intuitively knew, that these rankings prioritize efficient use of draft capital. Still I'm a bit surprised, this is a smaller correlation than I expected. Unless teams spend their value wisely, they are only getting 20 cents on the dollar.

Second thought is Detroit and KC crushed it.

 

It would be interesting to look back at previous rankings and see how they do compared to player production.   Profootball reference has AV (Approximate value... here is 2020 draft https://www.pro-football-reference.com/years/2020/draft.htm)

[Soko]

17 hours ago, onejayhawk said:

I think that is stone crazy. 

Missing the playoffs, maybe. Fewer than five wins, no way. The offense won't get worse and the defense should be much better.

High on this list = / = picking high in the draft.

[43M]

20 hours ago, RuskieTitan said:

These Steeler homers are out of control.

@goldfishwars, brilliant and insightful writeups and post draft analysis, as always....and not just because you have the Steelers at number 1.      Omar has done very well drafting, even though I really question some of his logic this offseason, especially at CB and WR.   And I still think QB will hold this team back...but I exoected as much after losing Ben.

I dont always agree with your assessments, but I always appreciate how much knowledge, effort and research you put into these.    I look forward to this after every draft.

Well done!

[NVRamsFan]

On 5/8/2024 at 6:59 PM, Forge said:

I'm very confused by this paragraph. 

They wanted to trade up in part because they had so many picks this year?  But in order to do that, the primary piece they gave up for the Fiske trade was a day two pick next year and that makes sense because they didn't want to sacrifice third round picks this year? But didn't you say that they had too many picks this year? Like, they added in that late round pick of course and maybe that's what you're referring to, but that was very confusing. 

 

But yes, they do have an extra third round pick next year. That helps, but it was still an insane trade from a pick value perspective. Ultimately won't matter if he's good. 

Considering the author of what you quoted being confused is to be expected. 

[NVRamsFan]

Congrats Steelers and their fans on the first trophy of the year! Always a good read and appreciated GF

[Hunter2_1]

It’s not homerish from Steelers fans to agree that their draft was the best (on paper).

 

 

 

…..this time.

Edited May 12 by Hunter2_1

[onejayhawk]

On 5/11/2024 at 5:25 AM, goldfishwars said:

29. Kansas City (3,781) -  9
30. Detroit (3,758) -  5

 

On 5/11/2024 at 6:58 AM, ramssuperbowl99 said:

Second thought is Detroit and KC crushed it.

🫡

I'd say so.

[Tk3]

On 4/29/2024 at 4:48 PM, goldfishwars said:

'I have my team's draft ranked higher' - Fan of Team

if it makes you feel better, EVERY year you are more optimistic on the Bills draft than I am

It helps me be more excited, so thank you for that

[Tk3]

On 5/4/2024 at 11:20 AM, Trentwannabe said:

Hot take:

Khalil Shakir will be viewed as top 15-20 WR after the season and Samuel will have a career year being back with Joe Brady.

As a long time Gabe Davis truther (former), I am now a card carrying Khalil Shakir truther