Goldfish's Way Too Early Draft Rankings 2024 (All Up)

[stl4life07]

17 minutes ago, Jakuvious said:

I think the general point is that there's virtually no real correlation with draft position for kickers and punters transitioning to the NFL. The kickers that NFL teams deem good enough to be drafted are really no more or less likely to pan out than UDFAs, so drafting kickers typically just winds up being a waste. If you pull the top 50 kickers in NCAAF history for FG%, like 5 of them have been successful. And not even that successful, we're talking like Matt Gay and Evan McPherson and Kai Forbath as the best guys in the list. And I'm even counting Matt Bosher as a success because he turned out to be a pretty good punter. Three kickers were drafted last year and none of them topped 84% for FG%. The best K drafted last year was objectively Jake Moody, and he's still, at best, a controversial draft pick. The Pats drafted two kickers in the last 4 years, one never attempted a FG in a real game, and one went for 64% last year.

Basically, kickers from college to NFL are pretty much random, and teams have demonstrated no ability whatsoever to identify which ones are worth drafting, so there's basically no reason whatsoever to spend draft capital on one versus just bringing in multiple UDFAs for tryouts.

I get what you are saying I dont know what Karty is going to be in the NFL but honestly just from the prospects I still think he is the most important pick for the Rams. Rams fans know how badly the kicking situation was last season. I mean they had Crosby on the roster he was an upgrade over what he had. We didnt use him then released him. He goes to the Giants and helped the Rams win bc he missed potential GW kick. In the words of Skip Bayless, "Ive never seen anything like it" lol I still wish they wouldve never choose to walk away from Gay. He was a known successive reliable kicker in the building for the Rams. 

Edited May 9 by stl4life07

[HoboRocket]

1 hour ago, Danger said:

I liked Arizona's class, aside from the Robinson pick. Reiman was kind of a reach but when they had as many picks as they did it's whatever. I actually kind of would have preferred they tried to trade up from 27 with like one of those day 2 picks, maybe see about getting Terrion Arnold.

Yeah I love how smooth Arnold is and would have loved to get him. Or even when we saw the corners sliding try to trade up for Quinyon Mitchell! A trio of Quinyon, Sean Murphy-Bunting, and Garrett Williams could be sneaky good.

But both Darius Robinson and Max Melton were Cardinals the whole way. I linked them to the Cards in a few mocks pre-draft and the team met with each of them multiple times.

Darius Robinson is the exact embodiment of what this Front Office and coaching staff want in a player with his leadership, toughness, motor, and versatility. He has some of the best press conferences I've seen from a rookie ever. But yeah, not sure his ceiling is too high. I think if he has a perfect career, Cam Heyward is an interesting comp. But Robinson is probably a lot closer to a Frostee Rucker type guy who will play for a long time but may not get big numbers. The team met with Robinson a few times. I did have him at the top of tier 2 of the pass rushers.

Melton is another guy who met with the team, but he met with them three times I think. At the Senior Bowl, Combine, and Top 30. And I knew his name would come up a lot. He was one of the best matchups with MHJ and one of like two corners in the nation who shut him down. I thought the first meeting was more just to gather Intel about Marvin Harrison Jr and see how Melton competed with him. I think they fell in love with the competitor along the way. Melton is crazy athletic and tough-tough. Good but not great size so yeah, like Goldy said, he might be more of a slot. Which is true of almost all of the Cardinals' corners.

[Danger]

2 minutes ago, HoboRocket said:

Yeah I love how smooth Arnold is and would have loved to get him. Or even when we saw the corners sliding try to trade up for Quinyon Mitchell! A trio of Quinyon, Sean Murphy-Bunting, and Garrett Williams could be sneaky good.

But both Darius Robinson and Max Melton were Cardinals the whole way. I linked them to the Cards in a few mocks pre-draft and the team met with each of them multiple times.

Darius Robinson is the exact embodiment of what this Front Office and coaching staff want in a player with his leadership, toughness, motor, and versatility. He has some of the best press conferences I've seen from a rookie ever. But yeah, not sure his ceiling is too high. I think if he has a perfect career, Cam Heyward is an interesting comp. But Robinson is probably a lot closer to a Frostee Rucker type guy who will play for a long time but may not get big numbers. The team met with Robinson a few times. I did have him at the top of tier 2 of the pass rushers.

Melton is another guy who met with the team, but he met with them three times I think. At the Senior Bowl, Combine, and Top 30. And I knew his name would come up a lot. He was one of the best matchups with MHJ and one of like two corners in the nation who shut him down. I thought the first meeting was more just to gather Intel about Marvin Harrison Jr and see how Melton competed with him. I think they fell in love with the competitor along the way. Melton is crazy athletic and tough-tough. Good but not great size so yeah, like Goldy said, he might be more of a slot. Which is true of almost all of the Cardinals' corners.

oh I don't mind Melton, think he was a good pick given the circumstances.

To me Robinson only works exclusively as a 3-4 DE. Doesn't have the athleticism or tools to work as an EDGE in 4-3, or the size and strength to work as a DT in a 4-3 either.

[Forge]

2 hours ago, Danger said:

I liked Arizona's class, aside from the Robinson pick. Reiman was kind of a reach but when they had as many picks as they did it's whatever. I actually kind of would have preferred they tried to trade up from 27 with like one of those day 2 picks, maybe see about getting Terrion Arnold.

The robinson was the one that I didn't love as well. I Just never got there with him in terms of loving him as a prospect. Fine player and I think he's got a good shot at being a solid player in the nfl, not sure what comes over top that though. 

The Tip pick was a reach from consensus, and that's seldom a great idea, but I get why they fell in love with him. 

 

[Forge]

9 hours ago, stl4life07 said:

Yeah everyone has their opinions about the trade which I understand. And that last article of it being the most expensive Day 2 overpay of at least the last six drafts. Like what does that even mean?

It means that they have paid more to trade up in rounds 2-3 than anyone has in the last 6 drafts. Draft picks have a value (trade charts). They overpaid for the pick they got by a lot. There's certainly some variation in those trade value charts, but every team uses some form of them as far as I am aware. There  is a question on which trade chart you use. Personally, I prefer the Rich Hill one. I think Barnwell has frequently used the Chase Stuart one which is fine. The only one I don't really love is the Fitzgerald-Spielberger OTC one. 

9 hours ago, stl4life07 said:

Again if Fiske ends up being what the Rams think he will be for not just their defense but for their team in general bc the Rams do have a certain standard and culture set in place then it doesnt matter.

Absolutely. That's more or less grading the result and not the process of pick asset management or how a prospect is evaluated by the grader (in this case, Goldfish) at the time of their selection. If Jake Moody becomes Justin Tucker, nobody cares that they spent a third on him. It's still bad process to draft a kicker in the third round though. If Chicago had drafted JJ McCarthy first overall, and he became better than Caleb, it'd still be a pretty egregious process in my opinion even though ultimately the right result. 

9 hours ago, stl4life07 said:

And you have to remember too that the GM Les was on the Falcons staff when they traded all the way up to grab Julio Jones back in 2011. One might say that was alot to go get a receiver. But Julio changed the Falcons team. Help them get to a Superbowl and really shouldve won it but thats another story. And I dont think the Falcons regret or even care about what they gave up to go get Julio bc they wanted him, they went up and got him and he worked out just like they thought he would.

I mean, how many trades can I name where the result was a disaster? Naming an instance where it succeeds is not beneficial to the argument. There are examples on both sides. 

Nobody is arguing that Fiske couldn't be good enough to make the trade up worth it. That's a different thing. 

9 hours ago, stl4life07 said:

Ill never forget in the 2013 draft the story was told bc the Rams were interested in drafting Alec Ogletree the linebacker from Georgia. Les didnt know if he should stay put and take him or trade back and hope he falls and they still take him. The agent said if you want your guy you better get him. Les did get cute and traded down from 22 to 30 and still got Ogletree but like you dont get cute when you want your guy. I felt like the Rams wouldve never been in position to get Ogletree in the 2013 draft if they didnt get cute and miss out on Bobby Wagner in the 2012 draft a year prior. And Im sure if they had to do that draft over again they wouldve made sure they ended up with Wagner instead of Isaiah Pead. So thats why I dont mind the Rams going up getting there guy. Right there. Les make sure you dont pass up on Wagner for Pead in the 2nd round again lol. Bc in doing so not only did you pass up on a HOF'er in Wagner for a bust in Pead but the next season you took a linebacker in the 1st round in Ogletree that you wouldnt have had to take if you wouldve drafted the linebacker Wagner the previous draft. 

One time Dallas wanted Paxton Lynch and couldn't get up to get him. They had to settle for Dak Prescott. 

Again, naming these hyper specific examples where it worked or didn't is silly. 

If your philosophy is "go and get your guy no matter what", that's fine. But I doubt that is a philosophy that is espoused by most. Especially those who are data driven. See, here's the thing to remember....nobody has figured out the NFL draft. There are no "expert" evaluators. So there is a whole lot of Dunning Kruger going on. NFL front offices who are sure that they couldn't have misfired on this prospect eval. No way, not them. Even you in a previous post said that it wasn't a big deal because they could just hit on later picks as though its a foregone conclusion lol. 

Data miners on the draft know that there are so many variables that account for an NFL prospect to succeed or fail that it makes the draft itself a wee bit random, which is why most don't love expensive trade ups. 

Ultimately, drafts are based on their results and not their processes. So nobody will care if they moved an extra second for Fiske if he succeeds. But this is about the here and now. Goldfish is looking at these draft classes in terms of his own evaluations of the prospects taken and the draft value / cost.  

[FrantikRam]

2 hours ago, stl4life07 said:

I see what you did lol

Its not even about being a loyal fan. I just see the track record of Les and McVay and they give me no reason to complain alot or even just constantly be nitpicky. I dont love every move that is made. For example, I still dont know why they didnt re-sign K Matt Gay? I know it was a money thing and the Rams thought that the 2023 season was a retool year but you still need a kicker and Gay was great for the Rams. So I feel like they missed the boat on that even if they didnt know last season was going to turn out the way it did the Rams could still use Gay for this upcoming season and not be put in position to draft a rookie kicker Joshua Karty. In which Im excited for but you dont know with kickers. So when you have one that has shown success in your building you keep them until they show you otherwise.

So yeah there are things I dont love but Im not going to constantly nitpick or complain bc the track record of Les and McVay have been good and plus I do try to see logic even if I might not like certain things. 

 

It is ironic that the one move you questioned is one of the best they've made - Gay was mediocre at best last year, definitely not worth the money and likely cost the Colts two wins.

As bad as our FG situation was, it likely only cost us against the Steelers.

[LuckyNumber11]

The reports were that the Cardinals had Melton over Dejean and Kool Aid, hence the trade down. I loved our class though. I think we’re going to surprise a lot of people this year

[Forge]

Just now, LuckyNumber11 said:

The reports were that the Cardinals had Melton over Dejean and Kool Aid, hence the trade down. I loved our class though. I think we’re going to surprise a lot of people this year

I loved Melton. 

I was upset you took him and the niners ended up with Green. Melton had been on my short list of second round picks for the 49ers basically all draft season 

[FrantikRam]

5 minutes ago, Forge said:

It means that they have paid more to trade up in rounds 2-3 than anyone has in the last 6 drafts. Draft picks have a value (trade charts). They overpaid for the pick they got by a lot. There's certainly some variation in those trade value chart's, but every team uses some form of them as far as I am aware. There  is a question on which trade chart you use. Personally, I prefer the Rich Hill one. I think Barnwell has frequently used the Chase Stuart one which is fine. The only one I don't really love is the Fitzgerald-Spielberger OTC one. 

Absolutely. That's more or less grading the result and not the process of pick asset management or how a prospect is evaluated by the grader (in this case, Goldfish) at the time of their selection. If Jake Moody becomes Justin Tucker, nobody cares that they spent a third on him. It's still bad process to draft a kicker in the third round though. If Chicago had drafted JJ McCarthy first overall, and he became better than Caleb, it'd still be a pretty egregious process in my opinion even though ultimately the right result. 

I mean, how many trades can I name where the result was a disaster? Naming an instance where it succeeds is not beneficial to the argument that it shouldn't be done. There are examples on both sides. 

Nobody is arguing that Fiske couldn't be good enough to make the trade up worth it. That's a different thing. 

One time Dallas wanted Paxton Lynch and couldn't get up to get him. They had to settle for Dak Prescott. 

Again, naming these hyper specific examples where it worked or didn't is silly. 

If your philosophy is "go and get your guy no matter what", that's fine. But I doubt that is a philosophy that is espoused by most. Especially those who are data driven. See, here's the thing to remember....nobody has figured out the NFL draft. There are no "expert" evaluators. So there is a whole lot of Dunning Kruger going on. NFL front offices who are sure that they couldn't have misfired on this prospect eval. No way, not them. Even you in a previous post said that it wasn't a big deal because they could just hit on later picks as though its a foregone conclusion lol. 

Data miners on the draft know that there are so many variables that account for an NFL prospect to succeed or fail that it makes the draft itself a wee bit random, which is why most don't love expensive trade ups. 

Ultimately, drafts are based on their results and not their processes. So nobody will care if they moved an extra second for Fiske if he succeeds. But this is about the here and now. Goldfish is looking at these draft classes in terms of his own evaluations of the prospects taken and the draft value / cost.  

 

Yea a lot of Rams fans won't care about it because under Snead/McVay, trades involving draft picks have been pretty good for us.

But ultimately its an unknown, and the irony is even goldfish didn't knock it TOO much. Almost everyone is speaking highly of the Rams draft in spite of that trade. Trading the 2nd round pick didn't really bother me, but expecting other people to not comment on it doesn't make sense, especially when the comments are essentially "man they paid a lot for that" - just a factual statement. In NFL history its possible nobody has ever paid that much for that pick.

[Daniel]

I liked the Cards draft, but I think I would have had them a little lower.  They had a ton of capital and top picks, so they should have come away with a haul.

[MKnight82]

21 hours ago, goldfishwars said:

Ben Sinnott at 53 is fresh from an impressive Senior Bowl and an even more impressive workout at the Combine. He’s good after the catch, and there are shades of Sam Laporta to his game, also in the way he doesn’t really impact the game as a blocker

I liked your writeup on Washington but my only criticism would be that Sinnott was actually listed as a FB/TE hybrid in college because he had a lot of blocking responsibilities. Chris Cooley did a whole breakdown on him and talked about him being like an old school Joe Gibbs H Back player which is a hybrid FB/TE position. I think Sinnott's blocking is quite good. 

[LuckyNumber11]

It’s funny with a lot of the Cardinals picks. The main criticism on some of them is always like “I really like this player, but it’s earlier than I would have drafted them” especially with regards to Robinson, Melton and Reiman. It’s just an interesting area to be in. 

[goldfishwars]

7 minutes ago, MKnight82 said:

I liked your writeup on Washington but my only criticism would be that Sinnott was actually listed as a FB/TE hybrid in college because he had a lot of blocking responsibilities. Chris Cooley did a whole breakdown on him and talked about him being like an old school Joe Gibbs H Back player which is a hybrid FB/TE position. I think Sinnott's blocking is quite good. 

Yeah, my bad. A good move run blocker, but lacks strength to be effective at that in-line imo.

[AZ_Eaglesfan]

Arizona definitely needed a ton of talent influx and while I didn't love every pick they made I think they checked a lot of boxes. I feel like they drafted some lower ceiling higher floor guys at spots which honestly I don't mind for a team that desperately needs impact early on.

[goldfishwars]

3. Chicago Bears

This Class In One Sentence:

The window on winning is officially open, use it wisely

Pre-Draft Needs (According to https://www.nflmockdraftdatabase.com/team-needs-2024)

QB, WR, EDGE, OT

Selections

1. Caleb Williams | QB | USC

9. Rome Odunze | WR | Washington

75. Kiran Amegadjie | OT | Yale

122. Tory Taylor | P | Iowa

144. Austin Booker | EDGE | Kansas State

Best Pick

I mean, Caleb at number 1 is such a no-brainer that I’ll go with Rome Odunze at 9. He’s got classic X receiver dimensions and can succeed in all areas of the field due to his fluidity as a mover and his ability to make contested catches. Combined with his competitive nature, it’s very difficult to envision a world where he doesn’t flourish in the NFL. And the fact the Bears can stick him on a field with DJ Moore and Keenan Allen, I don’t think there’s been a better situation for a rookie first round receiver, or the quarterback taken first overall.  

Worst Pick

I suppose I don’t get the Tory Taylor selection at 122 given you’ve just set your team up to not have to punt much. I mean, it’s 122 so who cares but also how many of these Punt Gods go on to exceed or match those expectations? I get that he’s a bit of a legend in that facet of the game so it’s not egregious, but at 26 years old and with plenty of mileage on that boot to consider, it’s only okay here at best. 

Overall

It’s a difficult team to place on a list like this because the class is small with only five selections, but the talent add is huge and capable of turning this franchise on its head. To be able to select the highest-rated quarterback prospect in years and a genuine go-to calibre wide receiver in one first round is a blessing. It’s been a fascinating process to watch since Ryan Poles became GM in Chicago and the rebuild began. The roster has been furnished well and runs deep at most spots, and now they were able to select first overall via a trade which allowed them to properly assess Justin Fields. 

Let’s talk about Caleb, then - the purple chip talent, a creative thrower of the football inside and outside of structure, and a quarterback with uncanny third-eye field vision. There are moments at USC, where he hung onto the ball to play hero a little too often. But with his elastic arm talent, there is always a chance to make plays deep into the down. And when he’s on, and nobody wants to make the comparison because of the trajectory of where that player is, there is a Mahomes-level playmaking talent there. And I love that he has the personality for the stage he’s stepping into, the scene isn’t too bright – he’s ready for it. And I love that he’s in Chicago, man, it’s been bleak at quarterback there forever.

The Bears might have gone offensive line at 9 if Odunze was off the board, so it made sense to come away with at least a development project there with their third selection. Kiran Amegadjie gives them that, with his enormous length and over 36-inch pipes. It’s been difficult to get any quality film on this guy, but you see flashes of dominance you want from a dude beating up on lawyers and accountants. His acclimation to the league could take time and with Braxton Jones giving serviceable play at tackle, he should get the seasoning he needs. 

Austin Booker arrived in Chicago as a result of the Bears giving the pick to Buffalo in exchange for Ryan Bates and then trading for it in exchange for next year’s fourth. Normally, I’d be against giving up a higher pick in the following year’s draft for the short-term return now – but this is a fairly complete roster and he was seen as a day two-level project by many. He hasn’t been playing the position for long but is lengthy and already refined with his hand usage. At 6’5, he’s the sort of lengthy profile which has thrived in Eberflus’s defensive fronts and he could find playing time as a DPR during his rookie season. 

Edited May 9 by goldfishwars