Goldfish's Way Too Early Draft Rankings 2024 (All Up)

[Forge]

18 minutes ago, stl4life07 said:

Yeah I would be shocked if the Rams do miss that 2nd round pick next season. I also think part of the Rams trading up (which they tried to trade up in the 1st round) is bc they had 11 draft picks coming into the draft. It was tied for the most picks in the league. They Rams didnt really have that many big holes to fill and they just wanted day 1 impact starters. So if they identified Fiske as a day 1 impact starter then yes it made sense to trade for him and not sacrifice any of their 3rd round picks in Corum (who will be very valuable to the offense) and Kenchins who could end up being another impact starter at some point next season possibly even day 1 although Im not banking on it. So the Rams come away saying they have four potential day 1 impact starters (Verse, Fiske, Kenchins, and Karty), plus a valuable player to the offense in Corum who is essentially similar to Kyren so if Kyren gets hurt or is taking play(s) or a series off the offense wont go in the tank like it did last season without Kyren. So again no I dont think the Rams will miss that 2nd round pick. Plus it wouldnt shock me if the Rams manage next draft to trade down in the 1st round to get back that 2nd round pick worse case scenario. And I think they will get an extra 3rd next season too as a comp so while its not a 2nd I think they will still feel good about two 3rd's next year.

 

I'm very confused by this paragraph. 

They wanted to trade up in part because they had so many picks this year?  But in order to do that, the primary piece they gave up for the Fiske trade was a day two pick next year and that makes sense because they didn't want to sacrifice third round picks this year? But didn't you say that they had too many picks this year? Like, they added in that late round pick of course and maybe that's what you're referring to, but that was very confusing. 

 

But yes, they do have an extra third round pick next year. That helps, but it was still an insane trade from a pick value perspective. Ultimately won't matter if he's good. 

[stl4life07]

3 minutes ago, Forge said:

I'm very confused by this paragraph. 

They wanted to trade up in part because they had so many picks this year?  But in order to do that, the primary piece they gave up for the Fiske trade was a day two pick next year and that makes sense because they didn't want to sacrifice third round picks this year? But didn't you say that they had too many picks this year? 

Very confusing. 

But yes, they do have an extra third round pick next year. That helps, but it was still an insane trade from a pick value perspective. Ultimately won't matter if he's good. 

Ok so to clear it up the Rams wanted day 1 or at least impact starters for this season. I feel like they identified Fiske as that guy and had they kept their original 2nd round pick they wouldve gotten a nice guy but they probably felt like he wouldnt have been that day 1 impact starter. And so with all the picks they had this year and even potentially next season to use those picks on players that alot of them might not be a day 1 impact starter wouldnt make sense. Especially when they are trying to fix the defense post Donald. Its going to take alot to even try to replace him so the more impact starters they feel like they can get the better. So trading up for Fiske they felt like right away they have Verse and Fiske that can come in day 1 and be impact starters to go with Turner and Young that they drafted last year. 

I even said that the Rams werent going to trade down. I knew if they couldnt trade up on Night 1 of the draft they for sure was going to trade up Night 2 and thats what they did. Now I didnt think it wouldve been for Fiske. I thought maybe DeJean Cooper or a receiver. But it all made sense after seeing them draft Fiske. So thats what I mean. The Rams had a ton of draft picks this year and they hit it out of the ball park last year with finding impactful starters and then looking forward to next year with the picks like the Rams werent concern with keeping all those picks or even trading down to get more. They just want to get impactful starters and thats what they believe they did this draft. 

[Sllim Pickens]

1 hour ago, Superduperman said:

I don't see Vaki as a project. I think he's ready to go as a special teams star.

Not a project, just that we went out of our way to get him.  Projects are fine to be drafted and all teams do it. It’s when you give up multiple assets and future draft capital for a guy that is risky.  And Vaki needs to make a big impact on special teams to be worth giving up all of that.  If he is just a special teams player that gets a few tackles then I can’t see that pick being worth it. 

[goldfishwars]

3 hours ago, Soko said:

How can you say “my team’s great at getting value in the draft” and also “losing a second round pick won’t hurt” in the same post? If they’re so great at making picks, then shouldn’t a SRP be a hot commodity for them?

It’s almost as if picks are capital and not just a one-for-one exchange for a college prospect. 

[goldfishwars]

7 hours ago, INbengalfan said:

Drafted by Bengals in the 5th round, put on practice squad, and immediately snatched away by the Eagles.  My only gripe with any Darrin Simmons decision in 20 plus years.

Man I was so convinced he went he went undrafted because of the famous snatching off the PS bit, that I didn’t even bother to look it up. Weird how often teams that drafted kickers get so antsy after. 

[goldfishwars]

3 hours ago, stl4life07 said:

Ok so to clear it up the Rams wanted day 1 or at least impact starters for this season. I feel like they identified Fiske as that guy and had they kept their original 2nd round pick they wouldve gotten a nice guy but they probably felt like he wouldnt have been that day 1 impact starter. And so with all the picks they had this year and even potentially next season to use those picks on players that alot of them might not be a day 1 impact starter wouldnt make sense. Especially when they are trying to fix the defense post Donald. Its going to take alot to even try to replace him so the more impact starters they feel like they can get the better. So trading up for Fiske they felt like right away they have Verse and Fiske that can come in day 1 and be impact starters to go with Turner and Young that they drafted last year. 

I even said that the Rams werent going to trade down. I knew if they couldnt trade up on Night 1 of the draft they for sure was going to trade up Night 2 and thats what they did. Now I didnt think it wouldve been for Fiske. I thought maybe DeJean Cooper or a receiver. But it all made sense after seeing them draft Fiske. So thats what I mean. The Rams had a ton of draft picks this year and they hit it out of the ball park last year with finding impactful starters and then looking forward to next year with the picks like the Rams werent concern with keeping all those picks or even trading down to get more. They just want to get impactful starters and thats what they believe they did this draft. 

Yeah we get the Rams really wanted Fiske, that’s why I said it was right player at the wrong price. Saying ‘well they really wanted him’ over and over doesn’t make it less true. 

[stl4life07]

13 minutes ago, goldfishwars said:

Yeah we get the Rams really wanted Fiske, that’s why I said it was right player at the wrong price. Saying ‘well they really wanted him’ over and over doesn’t make it less true. 

Thats not my point. I was saying people making a big deal about the trade up for him is being way overblown. If you follow me enough on here you know how I feel about draft picks. Ive said it over and over again that people make a huge deal about them. Especially when it comes to trading them away. If Fiske ends up being exactly what the Rams thought he would be for them who cares about next years 2nd round pick. 

Edited May 9 by stl4life07

[goldfishwars]

1 hour ago, stl4life07 said:

Thats not my point. I was saying people making a big deal about the trade up for him is being way overblown. If you follow me enough on here you know how I feel about draft picks. Ive said it over and over again that people make a huge deal about them. Especially when it comes to trading them away. If Fiske ends up being exactly what the Rams thought he would be for them who cares about next years 2nd round pick. 

Okay, that's how you feel about it - but it's not what other people do. So what do we do now? 

If you check out Bill Barnwell's article, research into these trades shows that teams trading up only landed a better player 42% of the time. 47% of the time the team trading back ending up with a better asset - that's without factoring in the additional capital given up. 

https://www.espn.co.uk/nfl/story/_/id/40052203/should-teams-trade-nfl-draft-lessons-deals-2024-class-winners-losers

Sure, but my team had a grade two rounds higher on that player, so why should that apply?

When I talk about teams trading down, the comment I hear most often from both fans and executives is the player their team just acquired is the exception to the rule. Sure, trading up might be a bad idea, but if a team has one first-round grade left on its board and a player's still there at the top of Round 3, that's a good time to trade up, right?

Maybe. Teams do land some of their trade-ups, as I've written about above. There are a few issues with that specific logic, though. One is that virtually every trade-up is in a scenario in which a team has a much higher grade on a player than where it currently sits on the board. If a team has a third-round grade on a player and it's drafting in the third round, there's usually not much of a reason to give up more draft capital to jump ahead of the pack and grab him. Even given that every trade-up is for a player higher on that team's board than where he'll be drafted, we know they don't succeed at a high rate.

The second issue with the logic is that the price paid for that player is no longer in line with where he's being drafted. Take this past weekend and the trade the Rams made with the Panthers in Round 2. To move up from No. 52 to No. 39, the Rams sent No. 155 and a 2025 second-round pick to Carolina, grabbing defensive tackle Braden Fiske in the process. As ESPN's Seth Walder noted, this was the largest overpay by a team on Day 2 in at least the past six drafts.

The Rams' trade-up for Braden Fiske was the most expensive Day 2 overpay of at least the last six drafts, according to ESPN's draft pick valuations.

Rams traded 52, 155 and a 2025 2nd to Carolina for 39. pic.twitter.com/JwUmYx6xeC

— Seth Walder (@SethWalder) April 29, 2024

Given the 10% discount on the future pick and the expectation it'll land at No. 48, the Rams paid nearly double the value of that No. 52 pick on the Stuart chart to land their defensive tackle. By Stuart's model, they sent the equivalent of the No. 8 pick to land Fiske, which means he has to be far more valuable than the typical second-round pick to make this deal pan out. Even by the more conservative Johnson chart, the trade haul sent to acquire Fiske equates to something like the No. 21 pick in a typical draft. I'm sure Los Angeles had a first-round grade on Fiske, but the price the front office paid means it would be breaking even if he plays like a solid first-round pick and would come up short otherwise.

Edited May 9 by goldfishwars

[goldfishwars]

4. Arizona Cardinals

This Class In One Sentence:

A lot of picks and a roster which needed them

Pre-Draft Needs (According to https://www.nflmockdraftdatabase.com/team-needs-2024)

WR, EDGE, CB, DL, IOL, OT, RB

Selections

4. Marvin Harrison Jr. | WR | Ohio State

27. Darius Robinson | DL | Missouri

43. Max Melton | CB | Rutgers

66. Trey Benson | RB | Florida State

71. Isaiah Adams | OL | Illinois

82. Tip Reinman | TE | Illinois

90. Elijah Jones | CB | Boston College

104. Dadrion Taylor-Demerson | S | Texas Tech

138. Xavier Thomas | EDGE | Clemson

162. Christian Jones | OT | Texas

191. Tejhuan Palmer | WR | UAB

226. Jaden Davis | CB | Miami

Best Pick

Marvin Harrison Jr. – Or, I should say the best decision was not getting cute at 4. Monti didn’t let those pre-draft videos of him cooking on the phones in 2023 go to his sizeable smooth head and took the most dynamic receiver prospect in years. Rookie wideouts rarely come out with such a complete profile, to the point that’s almost impossible to poke holes in MHJ's game. At 6’3 and 210, he’s an exceptional mover for his size and can win in the big game just as easily as shaking defenders loose with controlled, crisp route-running. He's going to be difficult to stop in the NFL. 

Worst Pick

Only minor quibbles at this end. With 13 selections available and a deep receiver class, I’d have liked an earlier double-dip there considering the thin depth on the roster. I’m guessing Tip Reinman probably hasn’t been selected with a Travis Kelce-esque upside in mind. At 27, Darius Robinson was probably more of a 2^nd round talent for me, even if I get the fit more than the decision to take him ahead of Jer'Zhan Newton. The decision to trade back at 35, whilst normally the smart thing to do, put them out of reach of both Cooper DeJean and Kool-Aid McKinstry and into the next tier of DB prospects. Something to note. 

Overall

I think it’s a very good class, which it should always have been given the capital at Arizona’s disposal and the fact their needs aligned well with the depth of the draft. Every 7 round mock I did had the Cards coming out with a handsome collections of players. And Monti and the gang spent well throughout, and particularly on day three. Bar some terrible luck it’s difficult to envisage Arizona not being a much improved team on the field in 2024, given the talent infusion and how well-coached they were last year. 

I like the Robinson and Melton selections, even if I had higher rated players available at both spots. Both are versatile gets which is probably their best asset. Robinson is long, powerful and has surprising quickness for his 285 pounds. It is notable that he did not test well as an edge rusher, which is where some thought his best position would be in the NFL. But he was really impressive at the Senior Bowl after battling injuries at Mizzou and I like the idea of setting him up to attack gaps in that odd front. Melton was another standout at the Senior Bowl where he was never overmatched. He has rare speed, an outstanding 1.51 ten yard split and sub 4.4 forty. But as is the case with many of the corners in this class, he has had struggles with more physical receivers and might do his best work operating inside.

Trey Benson is a good business at 66. He runs with violence and speed, and bounces defenders and can take it the distance on any given play. The old knee injury is one to watch there, and Florida State's hesitancy to use him as a bell cow. But the physical talent is fantastic. Isaiah Adams is decent at 71 as a nasty blocker with a finisher’s mentality. I’d like to see him move inside to guard, which is where he's likely to challenge for playing time early on. Tip Reinman was probably a little over drafted at 82 even if tight ends rarely come in that athletic/size package these days. But he can block for days standing up and on the move, which will help what they want to do on offense. It is notable that teams were coveting block first tight ends this year, bit ideally you want something a little more well-rounded on day two.

The next four selections are where the class takes a leap. Elijah Jones is a long perimeter corner at 6’2 and 185 who flew a little under the radar. He’s an excellent athlete, with a sub 4.5 forty with crazy jumps. Dadrion Taylor-Demerson has some slot/safety versatility. At under 5’11, there’s not ideal length and he is an older prospect. But he’s great both at coming down hill and smacking dudes, and in match/mirror coverage. I think that’s a smart pick. Xavier Thomas is enigmatic, but has an almost elite first step and genuine ‘wow’ plays on film. Christian Jones is another Senior Bowl participant who was very solid there. He's a surprising catch at 162 given how thirsty the league was for player who might hang at tackle.

[Hunter2_1]

2 hours ago, stl4life07 said:

 If you follow me enough on here you know how I feel about anything the Rams do

ftfy

You’re a very loyal fan Stl, I’ll give you that. They’ve got you on board come what may, no matter what.

[INbengalfan]

5 hours ago, goldfishwars said:

Man I was so convinced he went he went undrafted because of the famous snatching off the PS bit, that I didn’t even bother to look it up. Weird how often teams that drafted kickers get so antsy after. 

Bengals fans were equally antsy when they drafted McPherson in the fifth in 2020 for fear of him getting the same treatment.  Clearly they learned their lesson.

 

Elliott "lost" the training camp battle to Phat randy Bullock over the last kicks of the preseason.  Elliots was a 60 yarder (missed), while Bullock's was like a made 40 yarder.

 

That decision had Marvin Lewis' fingerprints all over it.

[Danger]

I liked Arizona's class, aside from the Robinson pick. Reiman was kind of a reach but when they had as many picks as they did it's whatever. I actually kind of would have preferred they tried to trade up from 27 with like one of those day 2 picks, maybe see about getting Terrion Arnold.

[stl4life07]

7 hours ago, goldfishwars said:

Okay, that's how you feel about it - but it's not what other people do. So what do we do now? 

If you check out Bill Barnwell's article, research into these trades shows that teams trading up only landed a better player 42% of the time. 47% of the time the team trading back ending up with a better asset - that's without factoring in the additional capital given up. 

https://www.espn.co.uk/nfl/story/_/id/40052203/should-teams-trade-nfl-draft-lessons-deals-2024-class-winners-losers

Sure, but my team had a grade two rounds higher on that player, so why should that apply?

When I talk about teams trading down, the comment I hear most often from both fans and executives is the player their team just acquired is the exception to the rule. Sure, trading up might be a bad idea, but if a team has one first-round grade left on its board and a player's still there at the top of Round 3, that's a good time to trade up, right?

Maybe. Teams do land some of their trade-ups, as I've written about above. There are a few issues with that specific logic, though. One is that virtually every trade-up is in a scenario in which a team has a much higher grade on a player than where it currently sits on the board. If a team has a third-round grade on a player and it's drafting in the third round, there's usually not much of a reason to give up more draft capital to jump ahead of the pack and grab him. Even given that every trade-up is for a player higher on that team's board than where he'll be drafted, we know they don't succeed at a high rate.

The second issue with the logic is that the price paid for that player is no longer in line with where he's being drafted. Take this past weekend and the trade the Rams made with the Panthers in Round 2. To move up from No. 52 to No. 39, the Rams sent No. 155 and a 2025 second-round pick to Carolina, grabbing defensive tackle Braden Fiske in the process. As ESPN's Seth Walder noted, this was the largest overpay by a team on Day 2 in at least the past six drafts.

The Rams' trade-up for Braden Fiske was the most expensive Day 2 overpay of at least the last six drafts, according to ESPN's draft pick valuations.

Rams traded 52, 155 and a 2025 2nd to Carolina for 39. pic.twitter.com/JwUmYx6xeC

— Seth Walder (@SethWalder) April 29, 2024

Given the 10% discount on the future pick and the expectation it'll land at No. 48, the Rams paid nearly double the value of that No. 52 pick on the Stuart chart to land their defensive tackle. By Stuart's model, they sent the equivalent of the No. 8 pick to land Fiske, which means he has to be far more valuable than the typical second-round pick to make this deal pan out. Even by the more conservative Johnson chart, the trade haul sent to acquire Fiske equates to something like the No. 21 pick in a typical draft. I'm sure Los Angeles had a first-round grade on Fiske, but the price the front office paid means it would be breaking even if he plays like a solid first-round pick and would come up short otherwise.

Yeah everyone has their opinions about the trade which I understand. And that last article of it being the most expensive Day 2 overpay of at least the last six drafts. Like what does that even mean? Again if Fiske ends up being what the Rams think he will be for not just their defense but for their team in general bc the Rams do have a certain standard and culture set in place then it doesnt matter. And you have to remember too that the GM Les was on the Falcons staff when they traded all the way up to grab Julio Jones back in 2011. One might say that was alot to go get a receiver. But Julio changed the Falcons team. Help them get to a Superbowl and really shouldve won it but thats another story. And I dont think the Falcons regret or even care about what they gave up to go get Julio bc they wanted him, they went up and got him and he worked out just like they thought he would. 

Ill never forget in the 2013 draft the story was told bc the Rams were interested in drafting Alec Ogletree the linebacker from Georgia. Les didnt know if he should stay put and take him or trade back and hope he falls and they still take him. The agent said if you want your guy you better get him. Les did get cute and traded down from 22 to 30 and still got Ogletree but like you dont get cute when you want your guy. I felt like the Rams wouldve never been in position to get Ogletree in the 2013 draft if they didnt get cute and miss out on Bobby Wagner in the 2012 draft a year prior. And Im sure if they had to do that draft over again they wouldve made sure they ended up with Wagner instead of Isaiah Pead. So thats why I dont mind the Rams going up getting there guy. Right there. Les make sure you dont pass up on Wagner for Pead in the 2nd round again lol. Bc in doing so not only did you pass up on a HOF'er in Wagner for a bust in Pead but the next season you took a linebacker in the 1st round in Ogletree that you wouldnt have had to take if you wouldve drafted the linebacker Wagner the previous draft. 

 

[Jakuvious]

12 hours ago, stl4life07 said:

As for Karty, Im just going off of what PFF College Football Analyst Max Chadwick said about Karty. And all those kickers you named he said based on the numbers that he tracked with kickers Karty was rated higher but the tracker hasnt gone that far back I think so yeah. Again he called Karty special. We dont know how he will do in the NFL but in college thats what he was referring too and so Im excited to see how he does in the NFL.  

I think the general point is that there's virtually no real correlation with draft position for kickers and punters transitioning to the NFL. The kickers that NFL teams deem good enough to be drafted are really no more or less likely to pan out than UDFAs, so drafting kickers typically just winds up being a waste. If you pull the top 50 kickers in NCAAF history for FG%, like 5 of them have been successful. And not even that successful, we're talking like Matt Gay and Evan McPherson and Kai Forbath as the best guys in the list. And I'm even counting Matt Bosher as a success because he turned out to be a pretty good punter. Three kickers were drafted last year and none of them topped 84% for FG%. The best K drafted last year was objectively Jake Moody, and he's still, at best, a controversial draft pick. The Pats drafted two kickers in the last 4 years, one never attempted a FG in a real game, and one went for 64% last year.

Basically, kickers from college to NFL are pretty much random, and teams have demonstrated no ability whatsoever to identify which ones are worth drafting, so there's basically no reason whatsoever to spend draft capital on one versus just bringing in multiple UDFAs for tryouts.

[stl4life07]

6 hours ago, Hunter2_1 said:

ftfy

You’re a very loyal fan Stl, I’ll give you that. They’ve got you on board come what may, no matter what.

I see what you did lol

Its not even about being a loyal fan. I just see the track record of Les and McVay and they give me no reason to complain alot or even just constantly be nitpicky. I dont love every move that is made. For example, I still dont know why they didnt re-sign K Matt Gay? I know it was a money thing and the Rams thought that the 2023 season was a retool year but you still need a kicker and Gay was great for the Rams. So I feel like they missed the boat on that even if they didnt know last season was going to turn out the way it did the Rams could still use Gay for this upcoming season and not be put in position to draft a rookie kicker Joshua Karty. In which Im excited for but you dont know with kickers. So when you have one that has shown success in your building you keep them until they show you otherwise.

So yeah there are things I dont love but Im not going to constantly nitpick or complain bc the track record of Les and McVay have been good and plus I do try to see logic even if I might not like certain things.