ramssuperbowl99 Posted May 10 Share Posted May 10 (edited) 6 minutes ago, onejayhawk said: I think that is stone crazy. Missing the playoffs, maybe. Fewer than five wins, no way. The offense won't get worse and the defense should be much better. I think they're in the 16-24 range by draft order, but very high on this list. Edited May 10 by ramssuperbowl99 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
onejayhawk Posted May 10 Share Posted May 10 Just now, ramssuperbowl99 said: I think they're in the 16-24 range by draft order, but very high on this list. That is not what you said earlier. Far from it. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ramssuperbowl99 Posted May 10 Share Posted May 10 1 minute ago, onejayhawk said: That is not what you said earlier. Far from it. Bolded it for you: 29 minutes ago, ramssuperbowl99 said: I think Chicago should be one of the favorites to be high on this list next year. Every year we see the same theme, teams that made bad decisions earlier pick near the top, have massive needs they can't address in FA, and pick a guy in the 1st round to plug a hole. Then, the Eagles/Steelers/Ravens/Pats/Packers take whoever is left because they didn't have any urgent needs. And they're good players in a good situation so they develop, which means those teams don't have needs, and the cycle repeats. I bet they're picking in the 16-24 range so BPA is going to be a top 10-ish guy when 18 QB go in the 1st round again, and they have the Panthers pick plus their own in the 2nd so they can find pass rush or OL or whatever really easily in either spot. Same thing you see in personal finance, rich people make better decisions with their money. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
goldfishwars Posted May 11 Author Share Posted May 11 (edited) 19 hours ago, ramssuperbowl99 said: I'm curious @goldfishwars have you taken your rankings and done any stats on how much draft capital corresponds to where they end up? There definitely should be some positive correlation, but it'd be interesting if we think the r2 would be like 0.3 or 0.7, or what it should be in an "ideal ranking". Yeah here you go, draft capital at the start of the draft by trade value versus where I ranked them. 1. Arizona (9,462) - 4 2. Washington (8,419) - 6 3. Chicago (6,660) - 3 4. Los Angeles Chargers (6,445) - 7 5. New England (6,319) - 12 6. Atlanta (6,269) - 32 7. Green Bay (6,059) - 19 8. Minnesota (5,767) - 23 9. New York Giants (5,468) - 11 10. Cincinnati (5,428) - 8 11. Las Vegas (5,192) - 13 12. Philadelphia (5,107) - 2 13. Los Angeles Rams (5,106) - 10 14. Jacksonville (5,057) - 29 15. Tennessee (4,978) - 28 16. Pittsburgh (4,943) - 1 17. Carolina (4,922) - 27 18. Indianapolis (4,920) - 14 19. New Orleans (4,480) - 26 20. Tampa Bay (4,433) - 21 21. Denver (4,420) - 18 22. San Francisco (4,405) - 15 23. Baltimore (4,242) - 20 24. New York Jets (4,239) - 22 25. Buffalo (4,192) - 16 26. Seattle (4,072) - 17 27. Houston (3,938) - 30 28. Dallas (3,803) - 24 29. Kansas City (3,781) - 9 30. Detroit (3,758) - 5 31. Miami (3,467) - 25 32. Cleveland (2,088) - 31 Edited May 11 by goldfishwars 6 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
goldfishwars Posted May 11 Author Share Posted May 11 More stats! Perceived value was only a small part of my evaluation, as scheme fit, price paid, need and, I don't know, just vibes were more important to how I felt about a class in general. Top 50 Picks Versus My Pre-Draft Rank 1. Christian Mahogany | IOL | Boston College - Lions 2. Malik Washington | WR | Virginia - Dolphins 3. Michael Pratt | QB | Tulane - Packers 4. Mekhi Wingo | DL | LSU - Lions 5. Cornelius Johnson | WR | Michigan - Chargers 6. Kris Abrams-Draine | CB | Missouri - Broncos 7. Jaheim Bell | TE | Florida State - Patriots 8. Johnny Wilson | WR | Florida State - Eagles 9. Kalen King | CB | Penn State - Packers 10. Edefuan Ulofoshio | LB | Washington - Bills 11. Spencer Rattler | QB | South Carolina - Saints 12. Beaux Limmer | OC | Arkansas - Rams 13. Hunter Nourzad | OC | Penn State - Chiefs 14. Kamal Hadden | CB | Tennessee - Chiefs 15. DJ James | CB | Auburn - Seahawks 16. Jarvis Brownlee | CB | Louisville - Titans 17. Mohamed Kamara | EDGE | Colorado State - Dolphins 18. Dylan Laube | RB | New Hampshire - Raiders 19. Dominick Puni | OL | Kansas - 49ers 20. Brenden Rice | WR | USC - Chargers 21. Jaden Hicks | S | Washington State - Chiefs 22. Xavier Thomas | EDGE | Clemson - Cardinals 23. Christian Haynes | IOL | Connecticut - Seahawks 24. TJ Tampa | CB | Iowa St - Ravens 25. Troy Franklin | WR | Oregon - Broncos 26. Justin Rogers | DL | Auburn - Cowboys 27. Myles Harden | CB | South Dakota - Browns 28. Tyrone Tracy | RB | Purdue - Giants 29. Tanner Mclachlan | TE | Arizona - Bengals 30. Daequan Hardy | CB | Penn State - Bills 31. Dylan McMahon | OC | North Carolina State - Eagles 32. Kitan Oladapo | S | Oregon State - Packers 33. Payton Wilson | LB | NC State - Steelers 34. Brandon Dorlus | DL | Oregon - Falcons 35. Theo Johnson | TE | Penn State - Giants 36. Khristian Boyd | DL | Northern Iowa - Saints 37. Javontae Jean-Baptiste | EDGE | Notre Dame - Commanders 38. Myles Cole | EDGE | Texas Tech - Jaguars 39. Caelen Carson | CB | Wake Forrest - Cowboys 40. Jared Wiley | TE | TCU - Chiefs 41. Cam Hart | CB | Notre Dame - Chargers 42. Javon Baker | WR | UCF - Patriots 43. Khyree Jackson | CB | Oregon - Vikings 44. MJ Devonshire | CB | Pittsburgh - Raiders 45. Sedrick Van Pran | OC | Georgia - Bills 46. Malik Mustapha | S | Wake Forest - 49ers 47. Austin Booker | EDGE | Kansas State - Bears 48. Junior Colson | LB | Michigan - Chargers 49. Jer'Zhan Newton | DL | Illinois - Commanders 50. Sataoa Laumea | OL | Utah - Seahawks Top 50 Picks In Draft Capital Gained Versus My Pre-Draft Rank 1. Dominick Puni | OL | Kansas - 49ers 2. Jer'Zhan Newton | DL | Illinois - Commanders 3. Christian Mahogany | IOL | Boston College - Lions 4. Christian Haynes | IOL | Conneticut - Seahawks 5. Cooper DeJean | DB | Iowa - Eagles 6. Malik Washington | WR | Virginia - Dolphins 7. Kris Abrams-Draine | CB | Missouri - Broncos 8. Jackson Powers-Johnson | OL | Oregon - Raiders 9. Mekhi Wingo | DL | LSU - Lions 10. Graham Barton | OL | Duke - Buccaneers 11. Adonai Mitchell | WR | Texas - Colts 12. Troy Franklin | WR | Oregon - Broncos 13. Zach Frazier | IOL | West Virginia - Steelers 14. Junior Colson | LB | Michigan - Chargers 15. Kingsley Suamataia | OT | BYU - Chiefs 16. Spencer Rattler | QB | South Carolina - Saints 17. Edefuan Ulofoshio | LB | Washington - Bills 18. Byron Murphy II | DL | Texas - Seahawks 19. Quinyon Mitchell | CB | Toledo - Eagles 20. Payton Wilson | LB | NC State - Steelers 21. Jarvis Brownlee | CB | Louisville - Titans 22. Hunter Nourzad | OC | Penn State - Chiefs 23. Johnny Wilson | WR | Florida State - Eagles 24. Cooper Beebe | IOL | Kansas State - Cowboys 25. Jaden Hicks | S | Washington State - Chiefs 26. Michael Pratt | QB | Tulane - Packers 27. TJ Tampa | CB | Iowa St - Ravens 28. Mohamed Kamara | EDGE | Colorado State - Dolphins 29. Xavier Thomas | EDGE | Clemson - Cardinals 30. Theo Johnson | TE | Penn State - Giants 31. Brock Bowers | TE | Georgia - Raiders 32. Brandon Dorlus | DL | Oregon - Falcons 33. DJ James | CB | Auburn - Seahawks 34. Javon Baker | WR | UCF - Patriots 35. Khyree Jackson | CB | Oregon - Vikings 36. Kool-Aid McKinstry | CB | Alabama - Saints 37. Cornelius Johnson | WR | Michigan - Chargers 38. Keon Coleman | WR | Florida State - Bills 39. Trey Benson | RB | Florida State - Cardinals 40. Rome Odunze | WR | Washington - Bears 41. Jaheim Bell | TE | Florida State - Patriots 42. Troy Fautanu | OL | Washington - Steelers 43. Kamal Hadden | CB | Tennessee - Chiefs 44. Nate Wiggins | CB | Clemson - Ravens 45. Tyrone Tracy | RB | Purdue - Giants 46. Adisa Isaac | EDGE | Penn State - Ravens 47. Beaux Limmer | OC | Arkansas - Rams 48. Jared Wiley | TE | TCU - Chiefs 49. Terrion Arnold | CB | Alabama - Lions 50. Laiatu Latu | EDGE | UCLA - Colts Bottom 50 Picks Versus My Pre-Draft Rank - Tbh more than a few here because I just didn't see them play - also don't necessarily think these are bad picks once you factor in scheme/likely usage etc 1. Tarheeb Still | CB | Maryland - Chargers 2. Jamal Hill | LB | Oregon - Texans 3. Tejhaun Palmer | WR | UAB - Cardinals 4. Keilan Robinson | RB | Texas - Jaguars 5. Micah Abraham | CB | Marshall - Colts 6. Michael Jerrell | OT | Findlay - Seahawks 7. Patrick McMorris | S | Cal - Dolphins 8. Marist Liufau | LB | Notre Dame - Cowboys 9. Ty'Ron Hopper | LB | Missouri - Packers 10. Joshua Karty | K | Stanford - Rams 11. Evan Williams | S | Oregon - Packers 12. Giovani Manu | OT | British Columbia - Lions 13. Jaden Davis | CB | Miami - Cardinals 14. Michael Jurgens | C | Wake Forest - Vikings 15. Levi Drake Rodriguez | DT | Texas A &M Commerce - Vikings 16. Solomon Byrd | EDGE | USC - Texans 17. AJ Barner | TE | Michigan - Seahawks 18. Daijahn Anthony | S | Mississippi - Bengals 19. Jonah Laulu | EDGE | Oklahoma - Colts 20. Jacob Monk | OC | Duke - Packers 21. Nick Samac | OC | Michigan State - Ravens 22. Tyrice Knight | LB | UTEP - Seahawks 23. Caedan Wallace | OT | Penn State - Patriots 24. Jawhar Jordan | RB | Louisville - Texans 25. Devaughn Vele | WR | Utah - Broncos 26. Jaylon Carlies | S | Missouri - Colts 27. Matt Goncalves | OL | Pittsburgh - Colts 28. Tip Reinman | TE | Illinois - Cardinals 29. Cam Little | K | Arkansas - Jaguars 30. Jaylen Key | S | Alabama - Jets 31. Tykee Smith | S | Georgia - Buccaneers 32. Josiah Ezirim | OT | Eastern Kentucky - Saints 33. Elijah Klein | OL | UTEP - Buccaneers 34. Tory Taylor | P | Iowa - Bears 35. Jaylan Ford | LB | Texas - Saints 36. Jordan Whittington | WR | Texas - Rams 37. Jarrian Jones | CB | Florida State - Jaguars 38. Jase McClellan | RB | Alabama - Falcons 39. Maason Smith | DL | LSU - Jaguars 40. Blake Fisher | OT | Notre Dame - Texans 41. Deantre Prince | CB | Mississippi - Jaguars 42. Jarrett Kingston | IOL | USC - 49ers 43. Nathan Thomas | OT | Louisiana - Cowboys 44. Ruke Orhorhoro | DL | Clemson - Falcons 45. Jordan Jefferson | DL | LSU - Jaguars 46. Zion Logue | DL | Georgia - Falcons 47. Zak Zinter | IOL | Michigan - Browns 48. Isaac Guerendo | RB | Louisville - 49ers 49. Patrick Paul | OT | Houston - Dolphins 50. Travis Clayton | OT | Basingstoke RFC - Bills Bottom 50 Picks Versus My Pre-Draft Rank by Trade Value - Same caveat as above 1. Bo Nix | QB | Oregon - Broncos 2. Michael Penix Jr. | QB | Washington - Falcons 3. Ruke Orhorhoro | DL | Clemson - Falcons 4. JJ McCarthy | QB | Michigan - Vikings 5. Maason Smith | DL | LSU - Jaguars 6. Jayden Daniels | QB | LSU - Commanders 7. Caedan Wallace | OT | Penn State - Patriots 8. Marist Liufau | LB | Notre Dame - Cowboys 9. Kamari Lassiter | CB | Georgia - Texans 10. JC Latham | OT | Alabama - Titans 11. Chop Robinson | EDGE | Penn State - Dolphins 12. Ty'Ron Hopper | LB | Missouri - Packers 13. Blake Fisher | OT | Notre Dame - Texans 14. Xavier Worthy | WR | Texas - Chiefs 15. Matt Goncalves | OL | Pittsburgh - Colts 16. Tip Reinman | TE | Illinois - Cardinals 17. Patrick Paul | OT | Houston - Dolphins 18. Jordan Morgan | OT | Arizona - Packers 19. Xavier Legette | WR | South Carolina - Panthers 20. Evan Williams | S | Oregon - Packers 21. Tykee Smith | S | Georgia - Buccaneers 22. Jonathon Brooks | RB | Texas - Panthers 23. Cole Bishop | S | Utah - Bills 24. Taliese Fuaga | OT | Oregon State - Saints 25. Ricky Pearsall | WR | Florida - 49ers 26. Calen Bullock | S | USC - Texans 27. Tyrice Knight | LB | UTEP - Seahawks 28. Darius Robinson | DL | Missouri - Cardinals 29. AJ Barner | TE | Michigan - Seahawks 30. Jarrian Jones | CB | Florida State - Jaguars 31. Giovani Manu | OT | British Columbia - Lions 32. Edgerrin Cooper | LB | Texas A&M - Packers 33. Marshawn Kneeland | EDGE | Western Michigan - Cowboys 34. Delmar Glaze | OL | Maryland - Raiders 35. Zak Zinter | IOL | Michigan - Browns 36. Tarheeb Still | CB | Maryland - Chargers 37. Trevin Wallace | LB | Kentucky - Panthers 38. Amarius Mims | OT | Georgia - Bengals 39. Tory Taylor | P | Iowa - Bears 40. Layden Robinson | OL | Texas A&M - Patriots 41. Jordan Jefferson | DL | LSU - Jaguars 42. Cedric Gray | LB | North Carolina - Titans 43. Javon Foster | OT | Missouri - Jaguars 44. Luke McCaffrey | WR | Rice - Commanders 45. Isaac Guerendo | RB | Louisville - 49ers 46. Isaiah Adams | OL | Illinois - Cardinals 47. Jacob Monk | OC | Duke - Packers 48. McKinnley Jackson | DL | Texas A&M - Bengals 49. Bucky Irving | RB | Oregon - Buccaneers 50. Keilan Robinson | RB | Texas - Jaguars 5 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ramssuperbowl99 Posted May 11 Share Posted May 11 (edited) 1 hour ago, goldfishwars said: Yeah here you go, draft capital at the start of the draft by trade value versus where I ranked them. 1. Arizona (9,462) - 4 2. Washington (8,419) - 6 3. Chicago (6,660) - 3 4. Los Angeles Chargers (6,445) - 7 5. New England (6,319) - 12 6. Atlanta (6,269) - 32 7. Green Bay (6,059) - 19 8. Minnesota (5,767) - 23 9. New York Giants (5,468) - 11 10. Cincinnati (5,428) - 8 11. Las Vegas (5,192) - 13 12. Philadelphia (5,107) - 2 13. Los Angeles Rams (5,106) - 10 14. Jacksonville (5,057) - 29 15. Tennessee (4,978) - 28 16. Pittsburgh (4,943) - 1 17. Carolina (4,922) - 27 18. Indianapolis (4,920) - 14 19. New Orleans (4,480) - 26 20. Tampa Bay (4,433) - 21 21. Denver (4,420) - 18 22. San Francisco (4,405) - 15 23. Baltimore (4,242) - 20 24. New York Jets (4,239) - 22 25. Buffalo (4,192) - 16 26. Seattle (4,072) - 17 27. Houston (3,938) - 30 28. Dallas (3,803) - 24 29. Kansas City (3,781) - 9 30. Detroit (3,758) - 5 31. Miami (3,467) - 25 32. Cleveland (2,088) - 31 Thanks, I can grab the rest of the data. With 7 years of threads, I've got some other ideas that might be interesting to see, like how the GFW ranking compares to point differential in years 1, 2, 3, and 4 of a draft class, or how GFW ranking in one year compares to the next. Any other ideas? First thought is that this strongly backs up what I think we all intuitively knew, that these rankings prioritize efficient use of draft capital. Still I'm a bit surprised, this is a smaller correlation than I expected. Unless teams spend their value wisely, they are only getting 20 cents on the dollar. Second thought is Detroit and KC crushed it. Edited May 11 by ramssuperbowl99 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
squire12 Posted May 11 Share Posted May 11 10 minutes ago, ramssuperbowl99 said: Thanks, I can grab the rest of the data. With 7 years of threads, I've got some other ideas that might be interesting to see, like how the GFW ranking compares to point differential in years 1, 2, 3, and 4 of a draft class, or how GFW ranking in one year compares to the next. Any other ideas? First thought is that this strongly backs up what I think we all intuitively knew, that these rankings prioritize efficient use of draft capital. Still I'm a bit surprised, this is a smaller correlation than I expected. Unless teams spend their value wisely, they are only getting 20 cents on the dollar. Second thought is Detroit and KC crushed it. It would be interesting to look back at previous rankings and see how they do compared to player production. Profootball reference has AV (Approximate value... here is 2020 draft https://www.pro-football-reference.com/years/2020/draft.htm) 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Soko Posted May 11 Share Posted May 11 17 hours ago, onejayhawk said: I think that is stone crazy. Missing the playoffs, maybe. Fewer than five wins, no way. The offense won't get worse and the defense should be much better. High on this list = / = picking high in the draft. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
43M Posted May 11 Share Posted May 11 20 hours ago, RuskieTitan said: These Steeler homers are out of control. @goldfishwars, brilliant and insightful writeups and post draft analysis, as always....and not just because you have the Steelers at number 1. Omar has done very well drafting, even though I really question some of his logic this offseason, especially at CB and WR. And I still think QB will hold this team back...but I exoected as much after losing Ben. I dont always agree with your assessments, but I always appreciate how much knowledge, effort and research you put into these. I look forward to this after every draft. Well done! 5 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NVRamsFan Posted May 12 Share Posted May 12 On 5/8/2024 at 6:59 PM, Forge said: I'm very confused by this paragraph. They wanted to trade up in part because they had so many picks this year? But in order to do that, the primary piece they gave up for the Fiske trade was a day two pick next year and that makes sense because they didn't want to sacrifice third round picks this year? But didn't you say that they had too many picks this year? Like, they added in that late round pick of course and maybe that's what you're referring to, but that was very confusing. But yes, they do have an extra third round pick next year. That helps, but it was still an insane trade from a pick value perspective. Ultimately won't matter if he's good. Considering the author of what you quoted being confused is to be expected. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NVRamsFan Posted May 12 Share Posted May 12 Congrats Steelers and their fans on the first trophy of the year! Always a good read and appreciated GF Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hunter2_1 Posted May 12 Share Posted May 12 (edited) It’s not homerish from Steelers fans to agree that their draft was the best (on paper). …..this time. Edited May 12 by Hunter2_1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
onejayhawk Posted May 12 Share Posted May 12 On 5/11/2024 at 5:25 AM, goldfishwars said: 29. Kansas City (3,781) - 9 30. Detroit (3,758) - 5 On 5/11/2024 at 6:58 AM, ramssuperbowl99 said: Second thought is Detroit and KC crushed it. 🫡 I'd say so. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tk3 Posted May 12 Share Posted May 12 On 4/29/2024 at 4:48 PM, goldfishwars said: 'I have my team's draft ranked higher' - Fan of Team if it makes you feel better, EVERY year you are more optimistic on the Bills draft than I am It helps me be more excited, so thank you for that Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tk3 Posted May 12 Share Posted May 12 On 5/4/2024 at 11:20 AM, Trentwannabe said: Hot take: Khalil Shakir will be viewed as top 15-20 WR after the season and Samuel will have a career year being back with Joe Brady. As a long time Gabe Davis truther (former), I am now a card carrying Khalil Shakir truther Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Join the conversation
You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.