Breakout Defense of 2024

[Daniel]

2 hours ago, Dr A W Niloc said:

You gotta love their positional Ease Of Schedules for the ground game, at least:

==  AFC-S  Offensive Ease of Schedule Overall and by Position, Frequencies  ==

Off 0301  QB EofS Fr | RB EofS Frequency | WR EofS Fr | TE EofS Fr || Win/Loss
EoS 2024 '24 2023    |'24 2023 Rn Ps Use |'24 2023    |'24 2023    || '24-[23]
                     |                   |            |            || 
1st Tenn   9 [18] 3  |  1 [11] 21 10  16 | 11 [28] 28 |  1 [ 2] 23 ||  12-[18]
 24 Indi  23 [26] 15 | 21 [31] 11 28 T20 | 16 [22] 13 |  8 [21] 16 ||  11 [11]
 30 Jkvl  26 [ 7]  5 | 24 [30] 16 25 T23 | 19 [32] 14 | 18 [19]  6 ||  24-[25]
 31 Hous  21 [27] 12 | 26 [ 2] 25 30  30 | 24 [31]  7 | 24 [ 7] 13 ||  28-[ 5]

Now the draft, a RT then three defenders, makes more sense.

They're playing him at left, but we'll see.  The big difference from last year's defense is gonna be the secondary.  Titans have been lackluster at CB for years, now with a proven elite DB coach as the DC, and Chris Harris also coaching CBs, and of course, La'Jarius Sneed, the Titans will have a good group of corners.

The Edge group is the same.  The DLs success will depend on if Sweat is what Sweat fans think, or if he's just a nose tackle without the stamina to play 3 downs.

Then the LBs I think are headed straight for mediocrity.  Murray is an elite athlete, and that's about it, and Gray is a polished player, but he's still a rookie, and he's gonna have to wear the green dot.

Still, good DBs, a mediocre LB group, and a mediocre Edge group can be a good defense if Sweat does what they think he can.  If you can't double team Jeff Simmons every play, he wrecks havoc.  It won't be an elite defense by any stretch, but it could be better than average if things go well.

[General Tso]

On 5/10/2024 at 3:19 AM, Hunter2_1 said:

GB, Chicago, LAR

 

I think their defences will be pretty serious 

From 1 to Chiefs, how serious we talking?

[AngusMcFife]

8 hours ago, BlaqOptic said:

Hendrickson is literally a top 8 Edge in this league. You point to 8 sacks the year prior while ignoring 14 the year before that and 13 the year before that. Not to mention no Edge has created more turnovers as a result of pressure than him over the past 3 years per NGS.

 

8 hours ago, Soko said:

So 25.5 the last two years? And 27.5 the two year prior to that (14 and 13.5)? Lmao. Must be only like 7 above average edge rushers in the league.

I would go with these players over Hendrickson. Tell me where I'm off.

Myles Garrett
TJ Watt
Micah Parsons
Maxx Crosby
Danielle Hunter
Khalil Mack
Josh Allen
Brian Burns
Nick Bosa

I would then consider Reddick, Will Anderson, Thibodeaux, Sweat, Hutchinson.

I think most would agree that he is not in the same stratosphere of players in his division like Garrett or Watt. No where near the impact of Parsons.

I'm just saying as a Ravens fan who has watched several games with Hendrickson, he doesn't have any elite traits or is someone you have to gameplan against. Yes he has good technique and instincts but you don't go into the game thinking "what are we going to do about Hendrickson?" It's good for him that he accumulate a bunch of stats on a bad team last year but his production coincided with the Bengals having their worst defense is years. When he has his best year and the Bengals have their worst year, that shows maybe he is not having much impact on the game.

Also 28 tackles is a pretty low stat even for a DE. Look at the totals for other sack leaders and they are in the 30s, 40s, and 50s. I don't see him as a well rounded player, just an edge who can work his way to sacks but is not someone you put extra attention to because he isn't that explosive.

[Soko]

12 hours ago, AngusMcFife said:

Hendrickson is IMO an average DE. Yes he had 17.5 sacks last year but 8 the year prior.

17.5 in 2023, 8 in 2022, 14 in 2021, 13.5 in 2020.

4 hours ago, AngusMcFife said:

I would go with these players over Hendrickson. Tell me where I'm off.

Khalil Mack

17 in 2023, 8 in 2022, 6 in 2021, 9 in 2020. 

4 hours ago, AngusMcFife said:

Josh Allen

17.5 in 2023, 7 in 2022, 7.5 in 2021, 2.5 in 2020. 

4 hours ago, AngusMcFife said:

Brian Burns

8 in 2023, 12.5 in 2022, 9 in 2021, 9 in 2020. 

4 hours ago, AngusMcFife said:

I would then consider Reddick, Will Anderson, Thibodeaux, Sweat, Hutchinson.

Sweat is egregious, Reddick is comparable, the rest are pure projection as none of them have been nearly productive as young players. If you’re saying you think Hendrickson will be average going forward and would take the likes of Thibodeux, Anderson, etc. above him, then that’s one thing. But if you’re trying to compare what they’ve already shown on the field, no.

4 hours ago, AngusMcFife said:

I think most would agree that he is not in the same stratosphere of players in his division like Garrett or Watt. No where near the impact of Parsons.

I'm just saying as a Ravens fan who has watched several games with Hendrickson, he doesn't have any elite traits or is someone you have to gameplan against. Yes he has good technique and instincts but you don't go into the game thinking "what are we going to do about Hendrickson?" It's good for him that he accumulate a bunch of stats on a bad team last year but his production coincided with the Bengals having their worst defense is years. When he has his best year and the Bengals have their worst year, that shows maybe he is not having much impact on the game.

Also 28 tackles is a pretty low stat even for a DE. Look at the totals for other sack leaders and they are in the 30s, 40s, and 50s. I don't see him as a well rounded player, just an edge who can work his way to sacks but is not someone you put extra attention to because he isn't that explosive.

The logic in your post “17.5 this year, but only 8 last year” apparently applies to Hendrickson alone, as half the players you mentioned had lower totals in 2022 (and most of them had lower 2021s and 2020s) or are projecting going forward. Your argument’s all over the place, first it was low sack total in 2022 (which is confirmed cherry-picking, given his production in 3/4 other years and most of those other players with low 2022s), then it’s career year on a bad defense (which, again, cherry picks 2023), game planning (anecdotal), and now tackles.

Hendrickson isn’t an average player. If he’s an average player, then one has to wonder why an average player is one of the most consistent and productive players in the NFL as his position. If you wanna say he’s not a game breaker or elite DE, I think most would agree. Saying he’s average is hilarious.

[Hunter2_1]

9 hours ago, General Tso said:

From 1 to Chiefs, how serious we talking?

I think we’re firmly in the Don Cheadle, 14 year old fans, Smoky Hickory flavour of seriousness here

[AngusMcFife]

4 hours ago, Soko said:

17.5 in 2023, 8 in 2022, 14 in 2021, 13.5 in 2020.

17 in 2023, 8 in 2022, 6 in 2021, 9 in 2020. 

17.5 in 2023, 7 in 2022, 7.5 in 2021, 2.5 in 2020. 

8 in 2023, 12.5 in 2022, 9 in 2021, 9 in 2020. 

Why are you only including sack totals?

Part of why I'm not terribly impressed by Hendrickson is that he is one-dimensional.

His total solo tackles for the past 4 years are:

28
22
21
22

Meanwhile Mack had 57 last year, along with 17 sacks. He's just a much more dangerous and versatile defender when healthy.

Josh Allen had 17.5 sacks and 43 solo tackles, I'd much rather have him going forward. Obviously an ascending player who does much more on the field than Hendrickson.

Brian Burns I consider to be easily a better player, he's just mired on a terrible team. Just open your eyes and watch the tape. He's not going to get sack totals when opposing offenses always have the lead and can dictate the game. 

Quote

Sweat is egregious, Reddick is comparable, the rest are pure projection as none of them have been nearly productive as young players. If you’re saying you think Hendrickson will be average going forward and would take the likes of Thibodeux, Anderson, etc. above him, then that’s one thing. But if you’re trying to compare what they’ve already shown on the field, no.

I mean, I've watch them all play. I'd rather have a twitchy guy with upside that teams are afraid of than ole reliable Hutchinson who will get you a sack once a game due to his high-motor and patient rush style, but is not a threat to whip a starting caliber OT with a lightning first step or bull rush with incredible strength. Traits matter. 

If I'm going into a game vs the Bengals, Hendrickson is not really a concern. You have to block him, obviously, but he's not a disruptive pass rusher.

Quote

The logic in your post “17.5 this year, but only 8 last year” apparently applies to Hendrickson alone, as half the players you mentioned had lower totals in 2022 (and most of them had lower 2021s and 2020s) or are projecting going forward. Your argument’s all over the place, first it was low sack total in 2022 (which is confirmed cherry-picking, given his production in 3/4 other years and most of those other players with low 2022s), then it’s career year on a bad defense (which, again, cherry picks 2023), game planning (anecdotal), and now tackles.

I'm allowed to create whatever criteria I choose. Who are you to tell me otherwise? You are really criticizing me for bringing more evidence to the table? I'm not allowed to amend my initial statement? You have no authority here.

I watch the games, I've seen plenty of Hendrickson, and my opinion is his impact on the field is less than what it shows on the stat sheet.

Quote

Hendrickson isn’t an average player. If he’s an average player, then one has to wonder why an average player is one of the most consistent and productive players in the NFL as his position. If you wanna say he’s not a game breaker or elite DE, I think most would agree. Saying he’s average is hilarious.

Fair enough, I'll back off that he's average. He's an above average pass rusher and IMO a below average run defender. Overall I'll give him an above average grade, but let's not pretend this is some difference maker here. 

If we can return to the main topic, my point is if your best player is a high-motor guy who will give you 1 sack a game but nothing else, your defense probably won't be good.

[Armbar]

3 hours ago, AngusMcFife said:

Why are you only including sack totals?

Part of why I'm not terribly impressed by Hendrickson is that he is one-dimensional.

His total solo tackles for the past 4 years are:

28
22
21
22

Meanwhile Mack had 57 last year, along with 17 sacks. He's just a much more dangerous and versatile defender when healthy.

Josh Allen had 17.5 sacks and 43 solo tackles, I'd much rather have him going forward. Obviously an ascending player who does much more on the field than Hendrickson.

Brian Burns I consider to be easily a better player, he's just mired on a terrible team. Just open your eyes and watch the tape. He's not going to get sack totals when opposing offenses always have the lead and can dictate the game. 

I mean, I've watch them all play. I'd rather have a twitchy guy with upside that teams are afraid of than ole reliable Hutchinson who will get you a sack once a game due to his high-motor and patient rush style, but is not a threat to whip a starting caliber OT with a lightning first step or bull rush with incredible strength. Traits matter. 

If I'm going into a game vs the Bengals, Hendrickson is not really a concern. You have to block him, obviously, but he's not a disruptive pass rusher.

I'm allowed to create whatever criteria I choose. Who are you to tell me otherwise? You are really criticizing me for bringing more evidence to the table? I'm not allowed to amend my initial statement? You have no authority here.

I watch the games, I've seen plenty of Hendrickson, and my opinion is his impact on the field is less than what it shows on the stat sheet.

Fair enough, I'll back off that he's average. He's an above average pass rusher and IMO a below average run defender. Overall I'll give him an above average grade, but let's not pretend this is some difference maker here. 

If we can return to the main topic, my point is if your best player is a high-motor guy who will give you 1 sack a game but nothing else, your defense probably won't be good.

Drugs r bad, mmkay?

[AFlaccoSeagulls]

Seahawks have way too much talent with Mike Mac not to be at least top 10 next year. Not sure if they're going to be elite in year 1, but they'll probably be very good.

[Forge]

5 minutes ago, AFlaccoSeagulls said:

Seahawks have way too much talent with Mike Mac not to be at least top 10 next year. Not sure if they're going to be elite in year 1, but they'll probably be very good.

I'm not buying the linebackers or secondary (outside of Spoon, of course) yet

[KhanYouDigIt]

I think Jags D makes a sizeable leap under Nielsen.

[AFlaccoSeagulls]

35 minutes ago, Forge said:

I'm not buying the linebackers or secondary (outside of Spoon, of course) yet

If their front seven plays to the level of talent they have there, I don't think the LB's are cause for concern but they're definitely not Patrick Queen and Roquan Smith, that's for sure.

[Warhorse]

Guess I'll set my own parameters because I see odd responses. It didn't ask for best....or even improved defense. It said "breakout". In my world, that would have to be bottom third of the league only....making eye widening improvement. 

Also, defensive rankings can be quite misleading.

Browns ranked #1 for total defense at 270/gm, yet allowed 44 TD's. (ranked 16th in total offense)

Chiefs ranked #2 for total defense at 290/gm. only allowed 32 TD's. (ranked 9th in total offense)

The Jets ranked #3 for total defense at 292/gm. allowed 36 TD's. (ranked 31th in total offense)

 

So regardless of the numbers ranking, I feel the Jets defense is the best in the NFL, considering the lack of support from their offense. I'm pointing this out just to say how subjective this all is. But if I had to pick a team in the bottom third to "break out" (I hear Klaus Meine everytime I type this).....it would be the Steelers, followed by the Bronco's, followed by the Colts. 

[onejayhawk]

18 hours ago, General Tso said:

From 1 to Chiefs, how serious we talking?

You aren't leaving much room, if any.

[sparky151]

Regarding Hendrickson, he scores favorably compared to other top pass rushers.

PFF has him 6th overall, with 20 sacks for the season, tied with TJ Watt for the league lead. He was 3rd in pressure %, behind Parsons and Huff. 

 

[El Ramster]

On 5/10/2024 at 10:19 AM, Superduperman said:

The Lions can play the run, and with Reader they'll continue to. When it comes to improving the pass defense enough for the Lions to have a breakout, you have two options; you can add to the pass rush and plan for it to make the coverage better, or you can add to coverage and plan for it to improve the pass rush. The Lions took the latter approach, but I was hoping for the former.

Bruh that secondary trash as hell. It got lit up like an sos sign from an island. Thing was set on fire. You lost good players too this off season. Dunno. But till I see it I won’t believe it. Don’t think you have great pass rushers either besides dude from Michigan. He’s gonna get held a lot more without calls this season too. The dreaded star treatment come for everyone. 
 

 

on paper it should be the Steelers. They’re going to field a nasty defense. I truly believe Joey Porter JR is top 5 talent and his numbers as a starter proved it. Watt never ever gets doubled either from that scheme. He has some monster up front! Yet steeler fans act like he has no help. Brother, the fact that he never sees doubles or triples should be a testament. Another 17-20 sack season from him. And Minkah is animal in the back end. Think Pitt returns with a legendary defense this year minus injuries. 

Edited May 14 by El Ramster