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Jaguars extend QB Trevor Lawrence (5 years, $275M, $200M gtd)


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13 minutes ago, Soko said:

But if you want to include two other QBs who signed deals this offseason, the one with the worst year also signed the fattest deal, lol.

Pays to be the next guy who get's paid not the last guy.

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24 minutes ago, LinderFournette said:

Have fun with that tua extension.

I'm more high on Tua moving forward than most (especially outside fans). Personally I think he'll get almost as much as Trevor yearly but less years (or at least some kind of out after the 2nd or 3rd yr).

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8 minutes ago, Soko said:

QB1: 4016 yards, 21 TDs passing, 4 TDs rushing, 14 INT, 12 fumbles, 65.6% completion, 3.7 TD%, 2.5 INT%, 6.7 AY/A, 88.5 passer rating, 8-8 missed the playoffs.

QB2: 4044 yards, 28 TDs passing, 1 TD rushing, 10 INT, 8 fumbles, 64.3% completion, 4.9 TD%, 1.8 INT%, 7.3 AY/A, 94.6 passer rating, 9-8 made the playoffs and won a game.

One signed for $55M AAV, because “that’s the going rate for starting QBs”, the other signed for $33.3M AAV in the same offseason. 

FWIW, I understand Baker Mayfields don’t grow on trees and he largely had a better receiving group. But if you want to include two other QBs who signed deals this offseason, the one with the worst year for the fattest deal, lol.

With Lawrence, I think you're still paying for "what could be". I think Baker is gets paid for what he is now.  I don't think that's inherently bad...some of the best deals in history have been signed because a team signed someone early for what could be and had the guy hit, but of course there's some risk involved. Especially at this price point. You're also not getting a whole lot of value if he hits right now because he's up toward the top of the market anyway, but that could turn around as soon as next year if Dak is grabbing 60+

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1 minute ago, TheKillerNacho said:

I'm more high on Tua moving forward than most (especially outside fans). Personally I think we gets about the same yearly as this but less years (or at least some kind of out after the 2nd or 3rd yr).

I’m happier paying Tua than Lawrence sans injuries tbh. 

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Lawrence was scheduled to make $25.6M fully guaranteed on his 5th year rookie option

the 2025 franchise tag for QB is projected to be $42.1M.   that is not adding in the recent deals signed by QB.  average of top 5 is probably pushing it closer to $50M for a franchise tag.  so if 1 tag was $50M (+/- a couple M).  a 2nd tag is 120% of that tag, so now we are pushing toward $60M.

waiting to get a deal done carries some risk.  

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19 minutes ago, LinderFournette said:

I'm curious to see what the 49ers and dolphins do cuz I feel their schemes are very QB friendly

The Dolphins interest me the most because they spent HEAVY at WR and though the invested in the draft at some areas of need (OT, DE) it's not a guarantee they work out. I could see them maybe being the team that bucks the trend, or just rolls forward and tags Tua.

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1 minute ago, squire12 said:

Lawrence was scheduled to make $25.6M fully guaranteed on his 5th year rookie option

the 2025 franchise tag for QB is projected to be $42.1M.   that is not adding in the recent deals signed by QB.  average of top 5 is probably pushing it closer to $50M for a franchise tag.  so if 1 tag was $50M (+/- a couple M).  a 2nd tag is 120% of that tag, so now we are pushing toward $60M.

waiting to get a deal done carries some risk.  

Asking honestly bc im a cap idiot -

Aren’t those projected tags essentially what they are paying him anyway? why is that riskier?

 

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2 minutes ago, warfelg said:

The Dolphins interest me the most because they spent HEAVY at WR and though the invested in the draft at some areas of need (OT, DE) it's not a guarantee they work out. I could see them maybe being the team that bucks the trend, or just rolls forward and tags Tua.

the franchise tag is a nice concept as a waiting to see more plan, but it also is a locked in guaranteed amount that teams have to be able to fit that big cap charge under the cap.  

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1 minute ago, Soggust said:

Asking honestly bc im a cap idiot -

Aren’t those projected tags essentially what they are paying him anyway? why is that riskier?

 

the tags are guaranteed with a full amount cap hit.  there is no way to reduce the cap hit with back loading the contract and pushing money out into future years.  If you look at the big QB contracts, the average per year is big, the the cap hits in the first few years is smaller, so teams can still be active and add pieces to the roster for a playoff push.  

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2 minutes ago, Forge said:

With Lawrence, I think you're still paying for "what could be". I think Baker is gets paid for what he is now.  I don't think that's inherently bad...some of the best deals in history have been signed because a team signed someone early for what could be and had the guy hit, but of course there's some risk involved. Especially at this price point. You're also not getting a whole lot of value if he hits right now because he's up toward the top of the market anyway, but that could turn around as soon as next year if Dak is grabbing 60+

That’s definitely an element to it and upside/what you hope a guy becomes is a factor in every contract, as it should be. It’s a mix of upside vs proven value, but the problem is every other QBs come in heavier on the proven value part. Kyler’s probably the only one that was comparable, and I don’t think Arizona fans should be ecstatic about having Kyler around for that number, either.

Paying a guy strictly on what you think he’ll be is also how teams justify giving mediocre players big deals. Usually it’s not a QB (hello, Daniel Jones) and usually it’s someone like a role player off a championship team (Byron Maxwell, Arthur Jones, type), but there’s got to be some smarts here. I think Cousins, Goff, Hurts, and Lamar signing smaller AAVs than Burrow, despite signing after him (correct me if I’m wrong there), kind of put a wrench into “next man up”. Lawrence played worse than all of them, but got more.

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