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9 hours ago, Jerry said:

You asked a question, and I answered it.  Obviously, I didn't think he was worth his top 15 pick.  

Like I said at the very end of my post, I honestly think Bowers is going to be a much better player in the NFL.

I bolded and underlined that part, so you'll see it this time.  Someone else responded to your post saying that while players like Gronk, Kelce, Gonzalez, other TE greats, weren't drafted in the top 15, it doesn't take away from the fact that players like Kelce and Gronk are major reasons why their teams won the SB.  If Bowers has a Kelce/Gronk type impact at TE for the Raiders, then he will be worth the 13th pick in the draft and every penny we end up paying him.

Seriously, if there was a redraft of the years where Gronk and Kelce were drafted, I'd bet everything I own they both go in the top 15 of their respective drafts.

My question was when was the last time a top 15 TE posed good value?  Your answer was Vernon Davis and I said we obviously have differing opinions on what value is.  Davis, a top 10 pick who averaged 540/4 is terrible value.  I don't understand how someone can try to justify that production as being a good value with the 6th pick in the 1st round.  A 4rd round TE can put up similar numbers to that... 

As you point out if Bowers puts up number's over his career similar to three of the greatest TE's to ever pay the position, three HOFers, yes he will pose good value at 13.  Do you have any idea what the odds are that Brock Bowers ends his career being talked about in the same sentence as Tony G, Kelce or Gronk..... Very small. 

A few other things, Tony G was drafted in the top 15.  The correct answer to my question of when the last time a top 15 TE posed good value in the 1st round was 1997 when Tony G was selected 13th overall.  Kelce and Gronk were helpful in winning SB's but it sure helps when you have Tom Brady and Pat Mahomes throwing them the ball...  I would venture to say that the QB's, Brady and Mahomes, had a much greater impact on winning those SB's. 

Back to my original point, since 1997 no TE has posed good value in the top 15 picks and as you point out for Bowers to pose good value he has to statically preform in line with 3 of the greatest to ever play the position.  Let's all hope that happens.

Edited by Frankie2Gunz
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On 8/12/2024 at 11:48 AM, RaidersForever said:

     I swore up and down to whoever would listen that JaMarcus was going to bust, the dude just had it written all over him (even my Dad thought I was crazy about it until JaMarcus started being JaMarcus). But I also can't say anything, because I was pounding the table for Brady Quinn.....

Not that it's particularly relevant for the Raiders, but I held strong on the Mark Sanchez camp for way too long. 

He had zilch for weapons in NY but rarely played so bad that I thought he didn't have "it". The team had some good success early on. I swore eventually he'd get somewhere with a real offensive mind and NFL worthy weapons and have at least a bit of a career Renaissance. 

Never happened. 

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5 hours ago, Frankie2Gunz said:

My question was when was the last time a top 15 TE posed good value?  Your answer was Vernon Davis and I said we obviously have differing opinions on what value is.  Davis, a top 10 pick who averaged 540/4 is terrible value.  I don't understand how someone can try to justify that production as being a good value with the 6th pick in the 1st round.  A 4rd round TE can put up similar numbers to that... 

As you point out if Bowers puts up number's over his career similar to three of the greatest TE's to ever pay the position, three HOFers, yes he will pose good value at 13.  Do you have any idea what the odds are that Brock Bowers ends his career being talked about in the same sentence as Tony G, Kelce or Gronk..... Very small. 

A few other things, Tony G was drafted in the top 15.  The correct answer to my question of when the last time a top 15 TE posed good value in the 1st round was 1997 when Tony G was selected 13th overall.  Kelce and Gronk were helpful in winning SB's but it sure helps when you have Tom Brady and Pat Mahomes throwing them the ball...  I would venture to say that the QB's, Brady and Mahomes, had a much greater impact on winning those SB's. 

Back to my original point, since 1997 no TE has posed good value in the top 15 picks and as you point out for Bowers to pose good value he has to statically preform in line with 3 of the greatest to ever play the position.  Let's all hope that happens.

This is such a nonsense argument.

~50% of first round picks bust. So what is really considered "value". You're saying Bowers needs to put up HOF level numbers to be good value as the #13 overall pick, which is just asinine.

If Bowers averaged 540/4 for 8-10 years in your example, that's a hell of a lot of "value" vs. selecting a prospect who busts or doesn't earn a second contract.  

In your Vernon Davis example, who provided more value? Davis with his 15 year career at pick 6 or Michael Huff at pick 7?

Now - before you cherry pick the 2006 NFL draft in hindsight, the point is the draft is a crapshoot, ~50% of players selected in round 1 bust. Saying a TE has to put up HOF numbers to be good "value" when ~50% of the picks will be quickly washed out of the league is again, nonsense. 

 

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4 hours ago, big_palooka said:

This is such a nonsense argument.

~50% of first round picks bust. So what is really considered "value". You're saying Bowers needs to put up HOF level numbers to be good value as the #13 overall pick, which is just asinine.

If Bowers averaged 540/4 for 8-10 years in your example, that's a hell of a lot of "value" vs. selecting a prospect who busts or doesn't earn a second contract.  

In your Vernon Davis example, who provided more value? Davis with his 15 year career at pick 6 or Michael Huff at pick 7?

Now - before you cherry pick the 2006 NFL draft in hindsight, the point is the draft is a crapshoot, ~50% of players selected in round 1 bust. Saying a TE has to put up HOF numbers to be good "value" when ~50% of the picks will be quickly washed out of the league is again, nonsense. 

 

Top 10 guys imo have to turn out great to justify the pick. Now mid to late first and beyond get some slack. But top 10  gotta be great those picks are too valuable to be wasted. Positionally te’s and wrs esp are at the mercy of the qb to get them the ball. see adams last year barely got 1k yards and he’s arguably the goat. Bowers just has to answer consistently and impressively when called upon imo

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10 hours ago, Frankie2Gunz said:

My question was when was the last time a top 15 TE posed good value?  Your answer was Vernon Davis and I said we obviously have differing opinions on what value is.  Davis, a top 10 pick who averaged 540/4 is terrible value.  I don't understand how someone can try to justify that production as being a good value with the 6th pick in the 1st round.  A 4rd round TE can put up similar numbers to that... 

As you point out if Bowers puts up number's over his career similar to three of the greatest TE's to ever pay the position, three HOFers, yes he will pose good value at 13.  Do you have any idea what the odds are that Brock Bowers ends his career being talked about in the same sentence as Tony G, Kelce or Gronk..... Very small. 

A few other things, Tony G was drafted in the top 15.  The correct answer to my question of when the last time a top 15 TE posed good value in the 1st round was 1997 when Tony G was selected 13th overall.  Kelce and Gronk were helpful in winning SB's but it sure helps when you have Tom Brady and Pat Mahomes throwing them the ball...  I would venture to say that the QB's, Brady and Mahomes, had a much greater impact on winning those SB's. 

Back to my original point, since 1997 no TE has posed good value in the top 15 picks and as you point out for Bowers to pose good value he has to statically preform in line with 3 of the greatest to ever play the position.  Let's all hope that happens.

So, you legit already had the answer to your own question.  Thanks for wasting my time.

I genuinely believe Bowers will be worth the 13th overall pick if he stays healthy and we resign him after his rookie contract.  I know you keep knocking Vernon Davis but he did end his career 11th in receiving yards by a TE and 7th in TDs all time for TEs.  It's still a relatively good career.  I know 540 yards per season doesn't look great when compared to WRs, but the guy was a pretty good player.

Anyway, stupid conversation with differing opinions.  I'll say it for like the 4th time, Bowers has a really, really good chance of being worth the 13th overall pick.

Edited by Jerry
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6 hours ago, big_palooka said:

This is such a nonsense argument.

~50% of first round picks bust. So what is really considered "value". You're saying Bowers needs to put up HOF level numbers to be good value as the #13 overall pick, which is just asinine.

If Bowers averaged 540/4 for 8-10 years in your example, that's a hell of a lot of "value" vs. selecting a prospect who busts or doesn't earn a second contract.  

In your Vernon Davis example, who provided more value? Davis with his 15 year career at pick 6 or Michael Huff at pick 7?

Now - before you cherry pick the 2006 NFL draft in hindsight, the point is the draft is a crapshoot, ~50% of players selected in round 1 bust. Saying a TE has to put up HOF numbers to be good "value" when ~50% of the picks will be quickly washed out of the league is again, nonsense. 

 

Exactly. If he's a pro bowl tight end, that would be bad value? Especially when his and Mayer's games are complementary, not overlapping.

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5 hours ago, NCOUGHMAN said:

Top 10 guys imo have to turn out great to justify the pick. Now mid to late first and beyond get some slack. But top 10  gotta be great those picks are too valuable to be wasted. Positionally te’s and wrs esp are at the mercy of the qb to get them the ball. see adams last year barely got 1k yards and he’s arguably the goat. Bowers just has to answer consistently and impressively when called upon imo

Bowers wasn't a top 10 pick. Totally agree about the QB. I have zero doubt Bowers will answer consistently. He will be the #1 pass option in the offense when Adams vacates. Now they need to find a QB who can get him the ball consistently. 

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5 hours ago, Jerry said:

So, you legit already had the answer to your own question.  Thanks for wasting my time.

I genuinely believe Bowers will be worth the 13th overall pick if he stays healthy and we resign him after his rookie contract.  I know you keep knocking Vernon Davis but he did end his career 11th in receiving yards by a TE and 7th in TDs all time for TEs.  It's still a relatively good career.  I know 540 yards per season doesn't look great when compared to WRs, but the guy was a pretty good player.

Anyway, stupid conversation with differing opinions.  I'll say it for like the 4th time, Bowers has a really, really good chance of being worth the 13th overall pick.

Anyone scoffing at Vernon Davis's production over 15 years is trying to hard to make a point. If I drafted Vernon Davis 13th overall and he had that productive and long of a career, I'd take that pick all day. 

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3 hours ago, MrOaktown_56 said:

Exactly. If he's a pro bowl tight end, that would be bad value? Especially when his and Mayer's games are complementary, not overlapping.

Some people still don't understand what Brock Bowers is as a player. They just tossed him in the TE bucket and moved on. Those people are about to see first hand.

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6 hours ago, Jerry said:

So, you legit already had the answer to your own question.  Thanks for wasting my time.

I genuinely believe Bowers will be worth the 13th overall pick if he stays healthy and we resign him after his rookie contract.  I know you keep knocking Vernon Davis but he did end his career 11th in receiving yards by a TE and 7th in TDs all time for TEs.  It's still a relatively good career.  I know 540 yards per season doesn't look great when compared to WRs, but the guy was a pretty good player.

Anyway, stupid conversation with differing opinions.  I'll say it for like the 4th time, Bowers has a really, really good chance of being worth the 13th overall pick.

I’ll be really happy if Bowers ‘only’ gets 540 yards average but helps us overcome our red zone issues. If he can have a big impact in doing that, it’ll make a big difference in the win/loss column. 

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7 minutes ago, Darbsk said:

I’ll be really happy if Bowers ‘only’ gets 540 yards average but helps us overcome our red zone issues. If he can have a big impact in doing that, it’ll make a big difference in the win/loss column. 

I think he will outpace 540 yards per season.  But yeah, ending his career in the top 15 in yards receiving by a TE and top 10 in TDs for a TE (Vernon Davis like stats) would be a pretty successful career.

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3 minutes ago, Jerry said:

I think he will outpace 540 yards per season.  But yeah, ending his career in the top 15 in yards receiving by a TE and top 10 in TDs for a TE (Vernon Davis like stats) would be a pretty successful career.

Yeh, I think he’ll exceed that yardage too. I think he’s going to be moved around a lot and play a high percentage of snaps overall. Like to see him at FB and in the slot. 

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1 hour ago, big_palooka said:

Bowers wasn't a top 10 pick. Totally agree about the QB. I have zero doubt Bowers will answer consistently. He will be the #1 pass option in the offense when Adams vacates. Now they need to find a QB who can get him the ball consistently. 

Carson Beck would be awesome.

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