Davante Adams signed extension with Packers

[Jakuvious]

36 minutes ago, CWood21 said:

Not really.  You pay based off of market value.  The most recent WR to sign a new deal was Alshon Jeffery, and Davante Adams has outproduced Jeffrey despite having a worse QB situation.  I might even make the argument that Adams is underpaid based on the extension that Jeffery just signed.

You said he's a damn good #2, not a bonafide #1. I don't generally associate that description with deserving top 5 per year money (and I expect it to still be top 5 at the end of the offseason.)

[SpeightTheVillain]

7 minutes ago, Jakuvious said:

You said he's a damn good #2, not a bonafide #1. I don't generally associate that description with deserving top 5 per year money (and I expect it to still be top 5 at the end of the offseason.)

Its just because his deal is up now. This is how it works.

2019 free agents include ODBJ, Kelvin Benjamin, Funchess, Diggs, Fitz.

He'll probably be top 15 to top 8 after that. That seems about right.

[DeSean Jackson]

56 minutes ago, CWood21 said:

Not really.  You pay based off of market value.  The most recent WR to sign a new deal was Alshon Jeffery, and Davante Adams has outproduced Jeffrey despite having a worse QB situation.  I might even make the argument that Adams is underpaid based on the extension that Jeffery just signed.

To be fair, eagles spread the ball out way more than the packers do. It’s alshons first season in the scheme and he was just starting to do good after like week 6.  We are way more balanced then the packers. Just look at the difference having jefferey is than not having him like last season, it opens up the other players big time. Give me jeffrey over a guy with Adams higher contact and huge concussion concerns. Plus, we could get out of Jeffrey’s contact in two years easy. 

[CWood21]

20 minutes ago, Jakuvious said:

You said he's a damn good #2, not a bonafide #1. I don't generally associate that description with deserving top 5 per year money (and I expect it to still be top 5 at the end of the offseason.)

Maybe I'm wording this poorly, but how many true bonafide #1 WRs are out there?  And when I say that, you know they're going to be the best receiver on the team no matter who else is on the roster?  To me, that list of players isn't very long and you've got guys like Antonio Brown, Julio Jones, DeAndre Hopkins, etc. as part of that tier.  But when you dig into that next tier, I believe Davante Adams has a legitimate argument for that next group.

[Jakuvious]

25 minutes ago, CWood21 said:

Maybe I'm wording this poorly, but how many true bonafide #1 WRs are out there?  And when I say that, you know they're going to be the best receiver on the team no matter who else is on the roster?  To me, that list of players isn't very long and you've got guys like Antonio Brown, Julio Jones, DeAndre Hopkins, etc. as part of that tier.  But when you dig into that next tier, I believe Davante Adams has a legitimate argument for that next group.

Okay, that's fairer. I took your wording to mean more that he's not the kind of guy you'd want at #1, just at #2. That's generally how KC fans used to always refer to Dwayne Bowe, for instance. Sounds like you mean just second tier. That makes it seem much more reasonable to me, then.

[JAF-N72EX]

25 minutes ago, Jakuvious said:

You said he's a damn good #2, not a bonafide #1. I don't generally associate that description with deserving top 5 per year money (and I expect it to still be top 5 at the end of the offseason.)

To be fair, Adams showed signs of a bonafide #1 this season even though the stat line don't show it. He was arguably their 2nd best skill position player all year(I'm particular to Jones - he's the real deal).

I may be remembering this a bit wrong so bare with me. There was one point time earlier in the season before Rodgers got injured(I think week 3?), it was late in the game and the Packers were in the red-zone. Rodgers threw a fade to Adams but either Rodgers' throw was off or Adams dropped it(I think the latter - don't remember) but the very next play they did same thing and it went for six. After the game, Rodgers said that Adams demanded him to do it again and guaranteed that it work and it did.

Two or three weeks later, after Rodgers' injury, the Packers were on a 4th and 1(?) in the red zone late in the game and camera spanned over Rodgers giving Hundley a call(presumably they had already discussed the play) and sure enough, it Hundley to Adams on a fade in the same exact same fashion. left side, one-on-one man coverage. 

Things like this, to me, shows the traits of a leader and the potential to be a bonafide #1 imo.  

That said, they did overpay him a bit. However, if you look at their WR position, moving forward, I don't think it's that bad. 

[incognito_man]

2 hours ago, patriotsheatyan said:

Paying an average number two 14 million a year? 

 

Thompson ensuring that Rodgers will never win another SB. 

I remember when I was in Junior high and didn't know any of the players are other teams too ha

[Jakuvious]

40 minutes ago, SpeightTheVillain said:

Its just because his deal is up now. This is how it works.

2019 free agents include ODBJ, Kelvin Benjamin, Funchess, Diggs, Fitz.

He'll probably be top 15 to top 8 after that. That seems about right.

He's #4 overall right now. He'll still be top 10 by then. People constantly overestimate the change in market when trying to justify deals. Yes, the money goes up. No, that does not mean guys like Benjamin, Funchess, and Watkins are going to be signing $15M per year deals. Again, not saying the deal isn't justified, as I've stated, haven't seen enough of Adams to say. But we've been through all this in the Jeffery thread already. This notion that $15M per year deals are going to get slung around to guys with 600ish receiving yards is non-sense.

[SpeightTheVillain]

3 minutes ago, Jakuvious said:

He's #4 overall right now. He'll still be top 10 by then. People constantly overestimate the change in market when trying to justify deals. Yes, the money goes up. No, that does not mean guys like Benjamin, Funchess, and Watkins are going to be signing $15M per year deals. Again, not saying the deal isn't justified, as I've stated, haven't seen enough of Adams to say. But we've been through all this in the Jeffery thread already. This notion that $15M per year deals are going to get slung around to guys with 600ish receiving yards is non-sense.

Not only do I think that at least one of those three will get paid that much by some team, but Adams would definitely make this on the open market.

Its just the market

[incognito_man]

5 minutes ago, Jakuvious said:

He's #4 overall right now. He'll still be top 10 by then. People constantly overestimate the change in market when trying to justify deals. Yes, the money goes up. No, that does not mean guys like Benjamin, Funchess, and Watkins are going to be signing $15M per year deals. Again, not saying the deal isn't justified, as I've stated, haven't seen enough of Adams to say. But we've been through all this in the Jeffery thread already. This notion that $15M per year deals are going to get slung around to guys with 600ish receiving yards is non-sense.

The numbers are misleading. He was extended this year, so part of his contract is spread of 5 years, not 4. His cap hit avg is less than what is stated.

[CWood21]

12 minutes ago, incognito_man said:

I remember when I was in Junior high and didn't know any of the players are other teams too ha

Don't waste your breath incog.

[Jakuvious]

2 minutes ago, incognito_man said:

The numbers are misleading. He was extended this year, so part of his contract is spread of 5 years, not 4. His cap hit avg is less than what is stated.

Not particularly relevant to the debate I'm having there. Not debating the amount of money, just debating how many others will match it in the near future. Regardless of how the cap hit is spread, it is 4 new years and 68M new dollars. It'll be recorded as $14.5M per year, despite the actual signing bonus spread. But whether that's good or not isn't what I disagree with. It's the idea that up to 11 other players are going to get deals bigger than that in the near future that I disagree with. Per my discussion with Cwood I don't know enough about Adams to say whether the value is good or not. It's just every extension we get some post saying "yeah, but 10-15 other players will be making more money than them within an offseason or two" and it just isn't true. The inflation isn't that rapid.

[Jakuvious]

16 minutes ago, SpeightTheVillain said:

Not only do I think that at least one of those three will get paid that much by some team, but Adams would definitely make this on the open market.

Its just the market

Last year's largest WR free agent deals were either 1 year deals or well below that (I'm talking like 40% below that.) Pryor on a 1 year $6M deal. Jeffery on a 1 year $14M deal. DeSean Jackson signed for $11M per. Garcon got $9.5M per. Maclin got $5.5M per. Kenny Stills got $8M per. Marshall got $6M per. So you had one deal over $11M per year, and that was a guy with a 1400 yard season on his resume who signed a 1 year prove it deal. You're expecting multiple guys in the next two free agencies to see a 40% - 60% increase in the contract value that equivalent players got the prior offseason. That's not going to happen. If they were elites, sure. But we're talking about guys that can't crack 750 yards.

It's like 10-15% per year at the top end. If that. And much less as you go down the ranks. Yes, that leads to Adams getting about 25% more than a guy like Baldwin got almost two years ago. But that doesn't translate to Sammy Watkins getting literally twice the contract of Kenny Stills or Terrelle Pryor did one year earlier.

[CWood21]

30 minutes ago, Jakuvious said:

Not particularly relevant to the debate I'm having there. Not debating the amount of money, just debating how many others will match it in the near future. Regardless of how the cap hit is spread, it is 4 new years and 68M new dollars. It'll be recorded as $14.5M per year, despite the actual signing bonus spread. But whether that's good or not isn't what I disagree with. It's the idea that up to 11 other players are going to get deals bigger than that in the near future that I disagree with. Per my discussion with Cwood I don't know enough about Adams to say whether the value is good or not. It's just every extension we get some post saying "yeah, but 10-15 other players will be making more money than them within an offseason or two" and it just isn't true. The inflation isn't that rapid.

Except it's not really as inaccurate as you're making it to believe.  Inflation doesn't necessarily mean substantial jumps in salary.  Last offseason, the franchise tag for WRs was $15.7M.  Going back to just 2015, that franchise tag value for WR was $12.8M.  That means the average salary is going up.  That's going to continue to jump because there are enough WRs who aren't making very much right now that are going to end up making more.  When you've got guys like Mike Evans, OBJ, Brandin Cooks, etc. who are all making relatively insignificant money set to make significantly more money.

[Jakuvious]

5 minutes ago, CWood21 said:

Except it's not really as inaccurate as you're making it to believe.  Inflation doesn't necessarily mean substantial jumps in salary.  Last offseason, the franchise tag for WRs was $15.7M.  Going back to just 2015, that franchise tag value for WR was $12.8M.  That means the average salary is going up.  That's going to continue to jump because there are enough WRs who aren't making very much right now that are going to end up making more.  When you've got guys like Mike Evans, OBJ, Brandin Cooks, etc. who are all making relatively insignificant money set to make significantly more money.

The franchise tag isn't representative of average salary, though. It's the top 5. That jumps in large leaps because every time someone close to being the best at their position comes up, they demand the #1 contract and it raises all of the top 5 positions effectively (the prior #5 is now #6 and not effecting it, #4 is #5, etc.) If OBJ gets a deal $2M per year higher than Brown, which wouldn't be unlikely, it actually jumps the franchise tag up a full $1M. The franchise tag going up that much can be caused by just a couple top 5 contracts, it doesn't mean all salaries are going up a few million dollars. That would break the cap quickly. That difference between '15 and '17 is basically just Brown and Hopkins. Other franchise tags jumped substantially less in that time because less guys jumped to the top of the board.

This all just means that between 2015 and 2017, elite guys got eliter money. That doesn't translate to mid-tier free agent WRs getting $7M more per year.

It also should be noted that the inflation is more notable at the top as well. The tag difference there is 22% over two years. In line with the 10-15% per year that I mentioned before anyways. That still doesn't lead to guys like Sammy Watkins and Kelvin Benjamin sky rocketing to $15M per year. If we take them to be the near future equivalents in value of what Kenny Stills or Terrelle Pryor were last year, they should be moving up to $9M or $11M per year contracts in the next year or two. NOT $15M per year. More than they would've a year or two ago, yes. But not more than Davante Adams just got (or what Jeffery got before.)