Random Packer News & Notes

[R T]

30 minutes ago, Mr Bad Example said:

I once saw a draft guy point out that fans (and probably most pundits) are WAY obsessed with adding skill players, most GMs aren't. 5 1st round level WRs, unless something weird happens at least 2 or 3 of them should be there when GB picks. 

Because they watch the ball when they watch football so those that catch it and carry it have more value in their eyes. Same reason they overvalue LB's on defense, they are higher volume tacklers and are around the ball more than other positions.  

Edited April 6, 2022 by R T

[Brat&Beer]

WR's taken in top 21 picks:

2021: 4   (Ja'Marr Chase, Jalen Waddle, DeVonta Smith, Kadarius Toney)

2020: 4  (Henry Ruggs III, Jerry Jeudy, CeeDee Lamb, Jalen Reagor) Justin Jefferson was 22.

2019: 0

2018: 0

2017: 3  (Corey Davis, Mike Williams, John Ross)

 

[Kampfgeist]

43 minutes ago, R T said:

Because they watch the ball when they watch football so those that catch it and carry it have more value in their eyes. Same reason they overvalue LB's on defense, they are higher volume tacklers and are around the ball more than other positions.  

....or they recognize when you get a good one like De'Vondre Campbell they make a significant impact on your defense or when you get a good one like Davante Adams it significantly affects how teams have to gameplan and know that player is going to ruin it anyway

[R T]

6 minutes ago, Kampfgeist said:

....or they recognize when you get a good one like De'Vondre Campbell they make a significant impact on your defense or when you get a good one like Davante Adams it significantly affects how teams have to gameplan and know that player is going to ruin it anyway

Doesn't change what the positional value is of ILB's and WR's in the eyes of GM's versus a fan who watches the ball, regardless if a team has good ones or not.

[Kampfgeist]

52 minutes ago, R T said:

Doesn't change what the positional value is of ILB's and WR's in the eyes of GM's versus a fan who watches the ball, regardless if a team has good ones or not.

in the eyes of our GM's....which is an important distinction and I agree to your posts regarding this

Other very successful GM's (SB winning GM's) have valued the two positions highly (as well as RB's).  Ours do not.  I don't agree wholeheartedly with the approach, but I'm in the camp that believes we've been highly successful despite SB victories so I might disagree with the approach but not disappointed (if that makes any sense) 

   

 

[ThatJerkDave]

3 hours ago, craig said:

I think there is some level of hyperbole and extreme; and that Gute is subject to neither.  One extreme is "don't worry about it"; can go with wideouts as Malik, 3rd-day-pick, and some post-draft veteran cut, nobody will notice the difference, WR is an insignificant position that doesn't matter.  The other extreme is "desperate".  

It's a team game, and they usually play two WR, sometimes three.  No, they aren't as important as QB or edge or OT.  But they have roles within offense, and they do matter.  I don't think it's being weirdo WR-obsessed to figure it's more probable than not that Gute will use one of his first four picks on a WR?  Or does that expectation make me some naive stupid simpleton who understands nothing about football?  

I think my posts seem to lean toward "don't worry" but I am mostly commenting about taking a WR in the first round.  It very well could be true that the best player is a WR.  I absolutely agree with the bolded.  I am just saying that don't panic if "pick your flavor WR" is available at 22 and we pass, and said player goes before 28.  The draft isn't over on day 1.  We have 5 top 100 picks, and 11 picks overall.  

 

I also am probably a little higher on a couple of our guys than most.  I will acknowledge that the room is not ready, yet.  But take a look at Randall Cobb and Allen Lazard:

The biggest question about Cobb is whether or not he is healthy.  The last time he was fully healthy was 2019 with Dallas, and he had 800 yards on 83 targets.  He had his highest yards per reception in a while, but he has increased his catch percentage in the last two seasons.  He has also been above his career average in yards per catch in each of his last three seasons.  

Allen Lazard is quietly putting up pretty good numbers.  He is just not flashy, and isn't getting the targets because Davante was so good.  Look at Lazard compared to James Jones.  Very similar yards per catch, with a higher catch percentage.  Is Allen Lazard a superstar in the making? No, I don't think so.  Can we probably count on him to put up 6-800 yards given more targets? I do think so.

Lazard:  https://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/L/LazaAl00.htm

Jones:  https://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/J/JoneJa04.htm

Cobb:  https://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/C/CobbRa00.htm

If we can get 60ish receptions from both Cobb and Lazard, I think we have a pretty decent base for a committee of WRs.  This won't be the 2011 group, but that doesn't mean there is no hope.  

[Mr Bad Example]

1 hour ago, ThatJerkDave said:

Allen Lazard is quietly putting up pretty good numbers.  He is just not flashy, and isn't getting the targets because Davante was so good.  Look at Lazard compared to James Jones.  Very similar yards per catch, with a higher catch percentage.  Is Allen Lazard a superstar in the making? No, I don't think so.  Can we probably count on him to put up 6-800 yards given more targets? I do think so.

I like the comparison of Lazard to Jones....people mention him like he's revered, but his ceiling was "deluxe #3"; if he was  your 2 or 1, you probably wanted that spot improved. But give him 100 tgts and he was good for 60-800. 

[CWood21]

10 hours ago, ThatJerkDave said:

I also find it incredibly lazy when mock drafts just put their highest ranked WR not taken at the Packers slot.  Especially when there are Watson and Pierce that are right up Green Bay's alley just probably not in the 20s.  

I honestly don't take it personally.  I usually just end up laughing them off anyways.  I mean, if it came down to it do you think you could make an accurate pick for say the Ravens or Titans?  It's all just talking points.

[CWood21]

10 hours ago, Arthur Penske said:

Eh, maybe not to the level fans are concerned, but I think Murphy's, Gutey, and MLFs comments show WR/ pass catcher is a clear priority. Especially when they know Rodgers won't be happy. I see a vet and two WRs and maybe a TE taken somewhat early. 

There's a stark difference between priority and desperation.  Being desperate means the Packers would be walking away with a WR with one (or both) of their FRPs no matter what the board dictates.  Priority means that if two positions are equally valued, you take the position of greater need.

[CWood21]

5 hours ago, Brat&Beer said:

WR's taken in top 21 picks:

2021: 4   (Ja'Marr Chase, Jalen Waddle, DeVonta Smith, Kadarius Toney)

2020: 4  (Henry Ruggs III, Jerry Jeudy, CeeDee Lamb, Jalen Reagor) Justin Jefferson was 22.

2019: 0

2018: 0

2017: 3  (Corey Davis, Mike Williams, John Ross)

2019 and 2018 were both viewed as "bad" WR drafts, so I'm not sure they really provide any valuable information there.  I don't think it has the depth of 2020, but I'd argue it's a similar class to that year.

[Sandy]

4 hours ago, R T said:

Doesn't change what the positional value is of ILB's and WR's in the eyes of GM's versus a fan who watches the ball, regardless if a team has good ones or not.

You mean the WRs who are all signing huge mega-deals are not valued by the GMs offering said mega-deals?

[AlexGreen#20]

4 minutes ago, Sandy said:

You mean the WRs who are all signing huge mega-deals are not valued by the GMs offering said mega-deals?

The GMs of their non-incumbent teams?

[Sandy]

6 minutes ago, AlexGreen#20 said:

The GMs of their non-incumbent teams?

Diggs has been cumbent for a few years now.

[AlexGreen#20]

Just now, Sandy said:

Diggs has been cumbent for a few years now.

Davante and Tyreke were not. 

[Sandy]

4 minutes ago, AlexGreen#20 said:

Davante and Tyreke were not. 

I guess I don't see the point. GMs value WRs enough to trade lots of draft picks and give lots of money to them. Teams that have invested heavily in the position have been rewarded with deep playoff runs in recent years.

It's not exactly a hot take that WRs are considered a premium position by a lot of team decision makers in the league.