Random Packer News & Notes

[vegas492]

4 minutes ago, Leader said:

Andy Herman -   Also of note:

Preston Smith + Za'Darius Smith in 2019: +30.70
Preston Smith + Za'Darius Smith in 2020: +0.35

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A bit of a drop off there.....

Anyone who looked at the contracts when they were signed, could see that.  And it isn't different from most free agent contracts.

[Leader]

Andy Herman -   Some grade notes: Kevin King's -4.20 grade was the 2nd lowest grade I've ever given on defense in 4 years. The lowest grade prior to this over the past 2 years on defense was -2.10.

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Yup. Kevin chose the wrong day to have a bad day.

[Leader]

Just now, vegas492 said:

Anyone who looked at the contracts when they were signed, could see that.  And it isn't different from most free agent contracts.

Care to expound?
It was predictable they would take their foot off the gas?

[vegas492]

45 minutes ago, Leader said:

Care to expound?
It was predictable they would take their foot off the gas?

Sure.  I think if you look at the free agency thread for that year, it was either PackerRaymond or Cwood21 who made an excellent post about all those free agent deals and how they could be viewed as two year deals with team options at the end.

It isn't like that reporter broke any "news".  Anyone who looks at free agent deals knows the front end is lighter than the back end.

It just the smart thing to do, as those contracts were smart.  Here we are two years into deals for Amos, Z, P and Turner.

I'd argue we "hit" on all of them.

Now it is time to figure out what to do with them.  Z has outplayed his deal, so he's ripe for an extension.  P, well, he's the tougher one.  Amos?  Yah, I'd look to pay him again.  Turner?  I'm not sure, though I do like the player for the contract.

The only hiccup here is the cap.  No one expected the cap be flat, let alone go down when those deals were signed.

And that assumes that the post was talking about cap numbers.  Not sure if it was.  

[Leader]

52 minutes ago, vegas492 said:

Sure.  I think if you look at the free agency thread for that year, it was either PackerRaymond or Cwood21 who made an excellent post about all those free agent deals and how they could be viewed as two year deals with team options at the end.

It isn't like that reporter broke any "news".  Anyone who looks at free agent deals knows the front end is lighter than the back end.

It just the smart thing to do, as those contracts were smart.  Here we are two years into deals for Amos, Z, P and Turner.

I'd argue we "hit" on all of them.

Now it is time to figure out what to do with them.  Z has outplayed his deal, so he's ripe for an extension.  P, well, he's the tougher one.  Amos?  Yah, I'd look to pay him again.  Turner?  I'm not sure, though I do like the player for the contract.

The only hiccup here is the cap.  No one expected the cap be flat, let alone go down when those deals were signed.

And that assumes that the post was talking about cap numbers.  Not sure if it was.  

?  Herman's comment didnt reference or allude to contract matters. The thrust of Herman's comment (as I understood it) was that (based on his grading) both players under performed relative to last year.

[MrBobGray]

2 hours ago, Leader said:

Andy Herman -   Also of note:

Preston Smith + Za'Darius Smith in 2019: +30.70
Preston Smith + Za'Darius Smith in 2020: +0.35

///

A bit of a drop off there.....

Think this is less to do with Z and Preston themslves specifically though.  Pettine played them pretty differently this year compared to 2019.  2019 Fackrell was the primary drop backer, with Preston dropping if Fackrell was on the bench and he didn't want to just rush his front four.  They played Z across the line more, letting him stand-up and rush the center more.  Plus, as Martinez noted on his way out, they basically just let the Smiths pick their spot and the rest of the defense tried to make them right.  That's going to result in pretty good pressure numbers.

That being said, the numbers across the board for the defense are worse, which is a bigger issue.  Packers defense got notably worse in QB hits, TFL, QB knockdowns, passer rating, you name it.  For having a better rush group in 2020 than he did in 2019, does feel like he got less out of them.  I haven't done a nearly in depth enough look to know why though.

[Leader]

8 minutes ago, MrBobGray said:

Think this is less to do with Z and Preston themslves specifically though.  Pettine played them pretty differently this year compared to 2019.  2019 Fackrell was the primary drop backer, with Preston dropping if Fackrell was on the bench and he didn't want to just rush his front four.  They played Z across the line more, letting him stand-up and rush the center more.  Plus, as Martinez noted on his way out, they basically just let the Smiths pick their spot and the rest of the defense tried to make them right.  That's going to result in pretty good pressure numbers.

That being said, the numbers across the board for the defense are worse, which is a bigger issue.  Packers defense got notably worse in QB hits, TFL, QB knockdowns, passer rating, you name it.  For having a better rush group in 2020 than he did in 2019, does feel like he got less out of them.  I haven't done a nearly in depth enough look to know why though.

Okay.....but I'm fairly sure I saw something mid to 3/4's of the season in that compared Preston's drop back rate to last year - and they were pretty much even and the point made was: its not the drop backs. 

Timing-wise....that comment was made before Gary's snap count going up - which (for a period of time at least) seemed to boost Preston's output - which again, would call the drop back rate into question.

Z - I couldnt tell you what happened.

[MrBobGray]

3 minutes ago, Leader said:

Okay.....but I'm fairly sure I saw something mid to 3/4's of the season in that compared Preston's drop back rate to last year - and they were pretty much even and the point made was: its not the drop backs. 

Timing-wise....that comment was made before Gary's snap count going up - which (for a period of time at least) seemed to boost Preston's output - which again, would call the drop back rate into question.

Z - I couldnt tell you what happened.

Right but it's not just the drop back rate that's important here, it's the when and why.  Preston being the primary drop backer means that he's getting less of the premium rushes in the pressure package.  The Smith/Smith/Clark/Fackrell front had the advantage of having two guys who could drop, whereas with Smith/Smith/Gary/Clark if anyone's dropping it's guaranteed to be Preston.  

I'm not saying that Preston didn't fall off, I don't have enough time watching film this year to know for sure one way or the other.  But every time I made it a point to watch Preston through a game I thought he played pretty well.

[Leader]

22 minutes ago, MrBobGray said:

Right but it's not just the drop back rate that's important here, it's the when and why.  Preston being the primary drop backer means that he's getting less of the premium rushes in the pressure package.  The Smith/Smith/Clark/Fackrell front had the advantage of having two guys who could drop, whereas with Smith/Smith/Gary/Clark if anyone's dropping it's guaranteed to be Preston.  

I'm not saying that Preston didn't fall off, I don't have enough time watching film this year to know for sure one way or the other.  But every time I made it a point to watch Preston through a game I thought he played pretty well.

Understood....but......

If Preston's drop back % isnt increasing......if 2019/2020 levels are the same....who cares how many guys could do it last year.

The % is consistent - meaning (in theory...) - his rush attempts should be consistent as well - no?

Add on: Did his snap count increase from last year? Maybe he just wore down?

 

Edited January 26, 2021 by Leader

[skibrett15]

For those of you saying the packers abandoned the run too soon.  No.  They abandoned the run down 28-10.  

[MrBobGray]

1 hour ago, Leader said:

Understood....but......

If Preston's drop back % isnt increasing......if 2019/2020 levels are the same....who cares how many guys could do it last year.

The % is consistent - meaning (in theory...) - his rush attempts should be consistent as well - no?

Add on: Did his snap count increase from last year? Maybe he just wore down?

 

So think of it like this:

Not all pass rushing snaps are made equal.  Rushing as part of a four man pressure package on 3rd and 15 is a lot more likely to produce a positive rush than rushing as part of a base 3-4 against 12 personnel running play action.  So it's not just how many bites at the apple a pass rusher gets, but specifically the kind of bites he's getting.  You can eat an apple a lot faster with five big bites than you can twenty tiny nibbles, essentially.

So working with this, the more players you have that you feel comfortable dropping into coverage, the more different ways you can utilize them.  If you drop Preston and Fackrell equally, each gets half of the pressure snaps to rush the passer.  In 2020, you only have one OLB you want to drop, which means any time you want to run a fire zone type blitz it's Preston who's the blitz replacement.  This results in Preston getting a smaller proportion of the ideal rush snaps, since he doesn't get to be part of the rush group on snaps that are most likely to result in pressure.

That being said, his numbers are way down across the board from last year, despite having a lower snap count.  I can't pretend I feel confident saying for sure the reasons why that is, only that from a personal eye test POV he didn't look like a different player to me this year.

[Leader]

Andy Herman -   LeRoy Butler should be in some Hall of Fame for how he's reacted to and put up with not being selected to the Hall of Fame.

[CWood21]

On 1/25/2021 at 9:20 PM, Leader said:

Ross Uglem -  Lucas Patrick is gonna be the center. They are going to be more than happy to run Barnes and Martin out there at ILB for like $1.2M combined.

They opted for Elgton Jenkins when Linsley was out for injury.  He's #2 on the C order behind Linsley IMO.

[CWood21]

On 1/26/2021 at 10:17 AM, Leader said:

Care to expound?
It was predictable they would take their foot off the gas?

I don't think it was taking their foot off their gas.  The Packers got production from Preston Smith in 2019 that isn't repeatable.

[Leader]

1 minute ago, CWood21 said:

They opted for Elgton Jenkins when Linsley was out for injury.  He's #2 on the C order behind Linsley IMO.

True - 74 was the immediate fill in.

I cant say what was in Uglem's head when he made his comment or how strongly he's advocating for it versus just throwing it out there (which is pretty much all I was doing). Has Patrick ever filled in at Center? I cant recall it actually, but I dont fine tune in to OL matters during the game. If the announcers dont say anything good chance I dont see it

But - should the C position open up full season, perhaps they decide to leave Jenkins at LG and give someone else shot at it from training camp on out. We shall see.