NFL News & Notes

[vegas492]

I knew that someone else would bring up the kicker.  I saw it, started typing and just stopped.  Thanks @squire12 !!

[Mr Bad Example]

2 hours ago, spilltray said:

Oh please explain it to me. Going for it on 4th cost them multiple games this year and will continue to cost them close games vs good teams. I don't see a rational argument to defend Campbell from literally throwing the game away because he doesn't know when to just take the points.

Quote

Under Campbell, the Lions have adopted a mentality of putting the foot down on an opponent to put a game away. The Lions exhibit that as well as anyone.

 

Detroit went for it on fourth down while winning 14 times, tied with the Browns for the most in the NFL. On those attempts, Detroit was successful 71.4 percent of the time, which included three touchdowns, the most of any team in the league.

Campbell and the Lions aren't settling for three points, they want touchdowns. Only the Colts (11) went for it on fourth down in the red zone in 2023 more often than the Lions (10) and Commanders (10). Detroit was successful on six of those attempts, three of which resulted in touchdowns.

 

In Campbell's head-coaching tenure, Detroit's 31 fourth-down attempts in the red zone are more than any other team. The Eagles (11) are the only team with more touchdowns in those situations than the Lions (10) and Chargers (10). Detroit has successfully converted on those fourth downs 54.8 percent of the time.

 

They go for it on 4th more than most and it leads to points.

 

And based on the SF game, analytics showed that his 4th down tries were in the realm of coin-flip decisions. And at least one of the failures was of execution more than anything. 

It's tough for me to criticise a coach who's going for it to win in defensible situations vs the standard NFL model of "cost your team the game by being overly conservative"

[spilltray]

36 minutes ago, Mr Bad Example said:

 

They go for it on 4th more than most and it leads to points.

 

And based on the SF game, analytics showed that his 4th down tries were in the realm of coin-flip decisions. And at least one of the failures was of execution more than anything. 

It's tough for me to criticise a coach who's going for it to win in defensible situations vs the standard NFL model of "cost your team the game by being overly conservative"

It's going to cost you more against the better teams. Analytics don't account for that.

[mikebpackfan]

3 minutes ago, spilltray said:

It's going to cost you more against the better teams. Analytics don't account for that.

Proper analytics would.  

[wgbeethree]

Reasonable (IMO) reasons to not be super duper scared of the Lions going forward from top to bottom.

1) The GM doesn't seem to care about positional value as much as most of us do.

2) The coach is aggressive to the point of being stupidly aggressive at times. 

3) The QB is good enough to win with but not good enough to really scare you.

4) The pass defense is really awful.

I can pretty easily see how their cup is half full if you're looking at it through honolulu blue tinted glasses but can just as easily see it as being half empty. 

[Brit Pack]

1 hour ago, squire12 said:

so drafting well for a few years is not the concern.... it is doing it over a long enough span of time to remain a top contender.  you mentioned 3 years, which is great

Your point was they are only draft great because of draft position in the first two rounds. I disagree this administration has been finding talent throughout the draft.

You can only judge for the last three years as that is when this administration has been in place. If they can identify and find talent in the past three years consistently I don't see why they can't carry on doing so.

[Mdpackfan22]

6 minutes ago, wgbeethree said:

Reasonable (IMO) reasons to not be super duper scared of the Lions going forward from top to bottom.

1) The GM doesn't seem to care about positional value as much as most of us do.

2) The coach is aggressive to the point of being stupidly aggressive at times. 

3) The QB is good enough to win with but not good enough to really scare you.

4) The pass defense is really awful.

I can pretty easily see how their cup is half full if you're looking at it through honolulu blue tinted glasses but can just as easily see it as being half empty. 

It takes awhile to change the culture of a team. What Brad Holmes and Dan Campbell have done has been nothing short of amazing. Everyone on this board would be very happy with the results they've gotten if we were in their situation. 

[spilltray]

9 minutes ago, Mdpackfan22 said:

It takes awhile to change the culture of a team. What Brad Holmes and Dan Campbell have done has been nothing short of amazing. Everyone on this board would be very happy with the results they've gotten if we were in their situation. 

If Campbell keeps shooting himself in the foot, and they either pay Goff 50/yr or dont replace him, it could easily fall apart quickly.

[Mazrimiv]

The DET pass defense came in at #16 by DVOA.  Not really awful.  Rush defense was #1

Edited February 6 by Mazrimiv

[wgbeethree]

34 minutes ago, Mazrimiv said:

The DET pass defense came in at #16 by DVOA.  Not really awful.  Rush defense was #1

I could be totally wrong but I believe they went from historically bad for a couple years until 1/2 way through 2022 to pretty good from there until 1/2 way through 2023 and then back to really awful at the end.

They did give up over 300 yards passing 5 of their last 6 games.

 

[wgbeethree]

59 minutes ago, Mdpackfan22 said:

It takes awhile to change the culture of a team. What Brad Holmes and Dan Campbell have done has been nothing short of amazing. Everyone on this board would be very happy with the results they've gotten if we were in their situation. 

Zero pecent chance! You know this board better than that!

Devils advocate.....

Sewell and Hutchinson were no brainers. We'd give 0 credit.

Then you used 4 top 40 picks on a RB, WR, TE, and ILB? We'd go nuts about position value.

We absolutely rage about questionable clock management and every single 4th that doesn't work.

At absolute LEAST 1/3 of this board would HATE the Lions team building and coaching philosophy if it was ours. It's not unreasonable to think the same people would feel the same way about a rival.

[squire12]

1 hour ago, Brit Pack said:

Your point was they are only draft great because of draft position in the first two rounds. I disagree this administration has been finding talent throughout the draft.

You can only judge for the last three years as that is when this administration has been in place. If they can identify and find talent in the past three years consistently I don't see why they can't carry on doing so.

Maybe read my post again, especially the final sentence.

10 hours ago, squire12 said:

Detroit has definitely drafted well the last few years.  Helps to have high picks and multiple of them in round 1/2.  Hitting on day 3 picks at a high % is easier said than done over a long enough number of years

 

[Brit Pack]

17 minutes ago, wgbeethree said:

Then you used 4 top 40 picks on a RB, WR, TE, and ILB? We'd go nuts about position value.

Except we have used top 40 picks on Watson WR, Quay ILB and Musgrave TE (pick 42). So the Packers don't give a crap about positional value either!!!

I wish people will stop fascinating about their top picks and look what they have drafted in rounds 3 and later:

St. Brown, Kerby, McNeil, Melifonu, Barnes, Rodriguez and Houston. That's just in two drafts

[Brit Pack]

2 minutes ago, squire12 said:

Maybe read my post again, especially the final sentence.

 

The jist of your posts are around the point that they have had high picks and that has what has made them successful, ignoring the fact that they have drafted well in later rounds also. You don't seem to mention those players nor how they have navigated FA and done well there also.

I don't feel you are giving credit where credit is due and instead focusing on the high picks they have had and attributing that to their success.

Hutchinson, Sewell, Gibbs, Decker, Ragnow, Campbell and all top 20 picks.  Lets see how well Detroit finds quality players picking late 20s

[squire12]

3 minutes ago, Brit Pack said:

The jist of your posts are around the point that they have had high picks and that has what has made them successful, ignoring the fact that they have drafted well in later rounds also.

Maybe read it again.  Ill bold it for you.

10 hours ago, squire12 said:

Detroit has definitely drafted well the last few years.  Helps to have high picks and multiple of them in round 1/2.  Hitting on day 3 picks at a high % is easier said than done over a long enough number of years

3 minutes ago, Brit Pack said:

You don't seem to mention those players nor how they have navigated FA and done well there also.

Has Detroit had a noticeably higher % success rate than other teams in their Faa signings?  

3 minutes ago, Brit Pack said:

I don't feel you are giving credit where credit is due and instead focusing on the high picks they have had and attributing that to their success.

Hutchinson, Sewell, Gibbs, Decker, Ragnow, Campbell and all top 20 picks.  Lets see how well Detroit finds quality players picking late 20s

Ive acknowledged their success at later round picks and how the high early picks have been helpful in adding difference making talent to the roster.  Moving forward, how well they continue to draft will play a big role in whether they can remain in their current top 3-5 status of NFC contenders.