PackFanFB ("PatsFanFB") Mock Off-season V.1

[packfanfb]

Never done one of these before but for the first time in a long time I'm very excited about a potential active off-season for the Packers other than just the draft so here's my take. Feel free to like it, hate it, ignore it, buy me a beer, call me the dumbest human being on Earth or whatever else makes you happy: 

Expected Starting Cap Space = approximately $23,000,000 -- I think according to Spotrac its just north of $21 mil and Over the Cap about $23 mil

Roster Adjustments:

1. Cut Cobb (pre-June 1) -- Cap Savings: $9,450,000 (Dead Money = $3,250,000) --- I like Cobb but his contract is so ridiculous right now that I doubt we would even be able to trade him. That leaves only one real option IMO, letting him go. The dead money sucks, but the cap savings is worth it. 

2. Cut Bulaga (post-June 1) -- Cap Savings: $6,300,000 (Dead Money = $1,600,000) -- Another necessary sacrifice. I'm not a huge Spriggs fan but he at least played much better at RT than LT and between him and Murphy (and maybe a mid-round draft pick) we can hold down the RT spot. Bulaga is injury-prone and simply too costly. We need the money elsewhere. Cutting him after June 1 reduces the dead money by about half I believe. 

3. Extend/Restructure Nelson -- Cap Savings: around $6,000,000 for 2018. I'd extend Nelson to a 3-year, $19,500,000 type of deal, cutting his 2018 earnings about in half. Given his age and the prospects of finishing his career in GB, hopefully winning another SB, I think he'd go for it. Honestly, he isn't worth any more than that. 

*Notable non-move -- Clay Matthews. As tempting as it is to get rid of Matthews' entire $11,000,000+ contract (with no dead cap), our defense is simply too shaky to dispose of him. I also don't think he'd consider a pay reduction, so we bite the bullet and pay him. Probably his last year in GB. 

*Other note -- A Rodgers extension could still happen this off-season as well, which would likely have at least some impact on the 2018 cap. For now, I left that out. 

Expected Cap Following Adjustments = approximately $44,750,000

 

Free Agency

Resign Our Own: 

1. Quinton Dial -- 1 year, $900,000 -- similar to what he got last year. Wouldn't pay him much more than that based on his role and production. 

2. Richard Rodgers -- 3 years, $6,000,000 -- honestly I have no idea what type of market RRod has, but I'd like to bring him back. I'm not "happy" about a Kendricks, Rodgers, draft pick TE group but I can live with it. Personally, we've never been great at utilizing TEs in our offense and I'm totally against the Jimmy Graham idea. 

3. Jahri Evans -- 1 year, $2,000,000 -- Jahri decides he wants one more shot at a title and we convince him to come back. He starts one more year at RG. 

4. Brett Goode -- 1 year, $900,000 -- someone has to snap the ball and Crosby can't seem to maintain any consistency unless Goode is that guy, so resign him. 

5. Ahmad Brooks --  1 year, $2,000,000 -- I'm lukewarm about this but our Edge crop is so weak pre-draft that I'd like to bring Brooks back because I think he'll have a better year once healthy and under Pettine. We get him back at a discount versus last year. 

Rest of the crop -- CYA. Bid farewell to Burnett, House and Janis. Burnett gets way too much money elsewhere from some team like Cleveland, House is gone because we are about to upgrade, and Janis gets replaced by draft picks/current players as the ST guy. 

Expected Cap Following Resignings = approximately $37,950,000

 

Time to hunt...

Free Agent Additions: 

1. Kyle Fuller - 4 years, $42,000,000 -- these days, above-average/good CBs cost money. Fuller gets a deal similar to what Logan Ryan got last year from Tennessee (3yrs/$30mil). Less than what Butler or Johnson will cost. Cap hit -- approximately $10,500,000 (of course we could also back-load or front-load these types of deals -- for now just going with straight math) 

2. Demario Davis - 3 years, $14,500,000 -- I know I'm in the minority but I've been clamoring for an upgraded, stronger presence at ILB on this team for more years than I can count. I'm not a Jake Ryan guy, sorry. Davis I believe played under Pettine for at least a year in NY and would instantly bring strength, nastiness and leadership to the middle of our defense. He's a solid cover LB as well, better than our current crop. Pair him with Martinez and go. Cap hit -- approximately $4,800,000

3. Donte Moncrief -- 4 years, $30,000,000 -- Moncrief's market is hard to judge for me given his down year last year but I think he probably goes in the $7 - $8 mil area. The money, plus Philbin and Hostler, plus Aaron Rodgers entices Moncrief to choose us. Instantly becomes WR 2 on the outside with Adams, giving us more freedom to move Nelson into the slot. Cap hit -- approximately $7,500,000

4. Tavon Wilson (with Draft 1 scenario) -- 2 years, $2,200,000 -- Personally, I'm not big on the idea of giving Burnett's money to another high-priced safety. We drafted Jones No. 2 last year so we hope he develops in that role. However, unlike the Ted years, Gute makes the smart play and adds a veteran to compete with Jones and/or be a security blanket if needed. Wilson is a vet player, big hitter and a change in scenery could bring him back to his NE days versus his last year or so in Det. Cap hit -- $1,100,000 

        * Alternative FA signing (with Draft 2 scenario) -- Tramon Williams - 1 year, $2,000,000 -- if Draft 2 happens, likely making Wilson an unnecessary pick-up, I'd be all for a Tramon / GB reunion. Say what you want but Tramon had a fine year last year, probably better than any CB on our roster. Guy still has the instincts to play the game and has played under Pettine. If at 34, he's comfortable with a back-up role, I'd sign him yesterday.

*Other note -- while I've been clamoring for a backup QB signing and wouldn't oppose it, I'm not expecting it to happen. I think GB will role with Hundley as QB 2 again. 

Expected Cap Following FA Moves = approximately $14,050,000

 

Draft -- disclaimer: No trades in this draft, which is probably unlikely to happen given our pick volume, but just picks in this one. 

1. Marcus Davenport (UTSA) -- EDGE -- ideal to address the pass rush first thing. Davenport can likely play up or down so Pettine gets some flexibility plus hopefully an explosive pass rusher, which we desperately need. 

      * Alternative pick: Derwin James (FSU) -- SS -- On one hand, this pick does not make a ton of sense to me given we drafted Jones last year No. 2; however, I happen to think James is going to be an impact player and I don't want to pass on him simply because we drafted Jones (who had an up/down year 1). Losing Burnett still leaves a hole that James could fill immediately. 

2. Christian Kirk (TAM) -- WR -- replaces Cobb. He's an electric slot guy that I think is more Golden Tate than Cobb (that's a good thing). 

       * Alternative pick: Dorance Armstrong (Kansas) -- EDGE -- more I read about him the more I like. Gives us the EDGE guy we need after picking James in the 1st. 

3(a). James Hearns (Louisville) -- EDGE -- I've been saying all off-season I want two EDGE players in the top 3 rounds. We need some new blood in that unit, preferably some athletes. Hearns is a pretty polished pass rusher. Add him and Davenport to the unit for Pettine to play with. 

        * Alternative pick: Troy Fumagalli (UW) -- TE -- We resigned RRod and by-passed a bigger named TE in FA so need to get a guy by rounds 3 or 4 to add to the unit. Fumagalli does everything pretty well. 

3(b). Mike Gesicki (PSU) -- TE -- he's the best available TE option under Draft 1 so we nab him. 

        * Alternative pick: Dante Pettis (WASH) -- WR -- fast WR with great punt return abilities, only this one is drafted where expected compared to Trevor Davis. 

4. D.J. Reed (Kansas St.) -- CB -- we added Fuller in FA, allowing us to wait until Round 4 to go CB. Reed adds depth to back-end of the unit. 

        * Alternative pick: Ade Aruna (Tulane) -- EDGE -- has good length and raw pass rush ability. Supposedly a "sleeper" prospect. 

5a. Natrell Jamerson -- (UW) -- SS -- A do-it-all player who is thrown into the mix with Jones, Tavon Wilson and the FS group. 

        * Alternative pick: Jaylen Dunlap (Illinois) -- CB -- in Draft 2, we wait until Round 5 to go CB, because again, adding Fuller reduces the need to go high like in years' past. 

5b. Austin Corbett (Nevada) -- G/T -- I think the 5th round is a perfect spot to pick up a few depth OL guys and we start with Corbett (No alternative picks from here on out)

5c. Brett Toth (Army) -- T -- he's from Army. 

5d. Nathan Shepard (Fort Hays State) -- DE/DT -- small school prospect. Overall, I like our DL but we have 100 draft picks so we add a guy. 

6. Shaquem Griffin (UCF) -- ILB -- yes the guy with one hand. I don't care. He's a beast and I think he can thrive on ST even with one hand. Been seeing a lot of reports some teams may take a chance on him in the 7th, but I'd nab him one round early because even with one hand he's probably better than what's on the board at this point. 

7. Some QB -- I don't care nor do I know about 7th round QBs. Just draft a guy. 

7b? I've seen some reports that we may be getting another 7th round pick for the McCray deal to Buffalo but I cannot confirm so I'll leave this blank for now. 

 

 

 

 

 

[MacReady]

Next mock draft I see that has us cutting Bulaga is getting reported. 

[MantyWrestler]

I agree with those about Bulaga. If he stays healthy he’s worth the money. A superstar? No but good enough. 

Dont understand cutting House and then signing Tramon Williams.

Although I like Moncrief it is a very good year for WR I’m rhe draft. Save the money there. 

Not bad effort. 

[jleisher]

I understand your Bulaga cut, and agree, if he's not healthy and able to perform as the Packers need, then yeah, cut him.  A agree with MantyWrestler about the House / Williams thing.  Like the work you did with alternate picks.  Thanks!

[Arthur Penske]

Like the Fuller signing.

[AlexGreen#20]

This is one of the better ones I've seen:

The big complaint is obviously Bulaga. It's not like you've drafted an OT or signed a guy who's going to step into that role. You have the money on hand to keep him and still have a very healthy roll over into next year. 

I think you underestimate what Demario Davis will sign for, but that's ultimately neither here nor there. He was a really good player this year who I could see getting paid second tier ILB money. 

Tavon Wilson sucks, and I have no faith that Tramon Williams won't regress back to the norm. He's going to be 36 years old next year. I'd still rather ride with House. With that said, low dollar shots on veterans is fine.  

I wouldn't be at all shcoked if Kirk sneaks into the first round. 

Honestly if you remove the part about cutting Bulaga this is basically my favorite mock of the offseason.

[pgwingman]

This mock is well done, well formatted,  and very thorough. Kudos on that. 

Onto my critique/question

I'm not sure I understand the Moncrief move. The Andrew Luck injury situation has obviously muddied the waters, but let's take a look at the stats:

Year    Yds/TD (Moncrief)     Yds/TD (Cobb)

2017          391/2                          653/4

2016          307/7                          610/4

2015           733/6                         829/6

2014           444/3                         1287/12

Moncreif is 24, Cobb is 27 years old. I get that we need new blood at WR, and I get that Cobb has not played to his contract, but I just don't see it. Since you had to eat $3.25M of Cobbs salary, and you are paying Moncrief $7.5M, you'd be spending $10M on a guy who's never played as well as your current $10M guy.

[Haha21]

Love it outside of cutting Bulaga, nice job! I would be thrilled if it panned out this way for us. Fuller would be awesome in FA, I think that would finally solidify our starters at CB, just need to add some depth at that point.  

[packfanfb]

17 hours ago, AlexGreen#20 said:

This is one of the better ones I've seen:

The big complaint is obviously Bulaga. It's not like you've drafted an OT or signed a guy who's going to step into that role. You have the money on hand to keep him and still have a very healthy roll over into next year. 

I think you underestimate what Demario Davis will sign for, but that's ultimately neither here nor there. He was a really good player this year who I could see getting paid second tier ILB money. 

Tavon Wilson sucks, and I have no faith that Tramon Williams won't regress back to the norm. He's going to be 36 years old next year. I'd still rather ride with House. With that said, low dollar shots on veterans is fine.  

I wouldn't be at all shcoked if Kirk sneaks into the first round. 

Honestly if you remove the part about cutting Bulaga this is basically my favorite mock of the offseason.

If not Bulaga would you try to trim and gain cap elsewhere? I was looking for other possible cuts that made sense.

[Toddfather]

I get Bulaga has injury history, but do you risk 12 because that amount of money? If you want to talk about the best possible o line for next season you have to include Bulaga. 

[AlexGreen#20]

10 hours ago, packfanfb said:

If not Bulaga would you try to trim and gain cap elsewhere? I was looking for other possible cuts that made sense.

Not really. I think you've trimmed most of the fat off this roster. 

[ThatJerkDave]

I would rather get rid of Jordy if we are jettisoning a WR. He is older, and has a smaller dead cap hit than Cobb.  Jordy also seemed to disappear when Rodgers was out.  The way he played last season, I don't want him around for three more.  

[Kenrik]

9 hours ago, DavidatMIZZOU said:

I would rather get rid of Jordy if we are jettisoning a WR. He is older, and has a smaller dead cap hit than Cobb.  Jordy also seemed to disappear when Rodgers was out.  The way he played last season, I don't want him around for three more.  

Its like watching your dog struggle through the last few years.