2018 Free Agency - Prospects for GB

[AlexGreen#20]

5 hours ago, Packerraymond said:

So no athletic defensive players went in 2013-2016 after the 20s that were good?

Funny how Nick Collins came from a year we picked in the 20s, Kevin King and Josh Jones came from a year we had no first round pick. Nick Perry, Aaron Rouse, Justin Harrell, Montravious Adams, Mike Daniels, years we had more capital it still holds true with Hawk, Matthews, Raji. Ted found some upper echelon athletes. 2013-2016 marked a shift in how he drafted defensive players. Versatility and instincts became more regarded than sheer athletic ability. The Falcons and Saints expose exactly what that brought every time we play them in that dome. LIS, there is a reason Ted took King and Jones and Gute took it a step further. Our WRs were slowest in the NFL and I'm sure I'd they calculated speed in the post Shields era our DBs would have been too. We couldn't match up to athletes.

Just looking at pro bowlers which is far from foolproof

2013 had 15 players drafted after the 2nd round make a pro bowl. The Packers drafted 3 of them.

Darius Slay, Kwann Short, and Jamie Collins all went before the Packers second round pick. Those 3, Honey Badger, and Micah Hyde are the 5 defensive pro bowlers drafted after the first round.

2014 had 8 probowlers drafted after the first round. The Packers drafted one of them. DeMarcus Lawrence at 34 and Telvin Smith at 144 were the only defensive players.

2015 had 6 pro bowlers drafted. Landon Collins at 33 and Kwon Alexander at 124 we're the only defenders. DJ Alexander made it as a ST guy.

2016 had 9 pro bowlers drafted. Deion Jones at 52 Kevin Byard at 64, Yannick Ngouke at 69 and Joe Schoebert at 99 were the defenders.

13 defensive players drafted after the first round between 2013 and 2016 have made a pro bowl

That isn't none, but it sure as **** isn't alot, and one of those guys was picked by TT.

 

Just looking at it positionally you've got:

CB: Slay

S: Hyde, Mathieu, Byard, Collins

DT: Short

ILB: Collins, Smith, Alexander, Jones, Schoebert

Edge: Lawrence, Ngokue

Tells you what spots are highly coveted in that first round

[CWood21]

10 minutes ago, Shanedorf said:

Same challenge to you CWood....Worthy clearly wasn't worthy - but who was ? ( Devon Still was the other DT in consideration per Trgo, and Still flamed out in Cinci)

First off, I'm assuming you're aware of the planet theory.  That's a LARGE reason why Worthy ended up going as high as he did.  Big guys get drafted early and often, that's just the way the NFL works.  As for Fackrell, you don't get quality pass rushers late in the draft.  The success rate goes down ridiculously after the first round.  If you want a pass rusher whose going to make an impact, you better be willing to invest in them earlier.  Because they're not available later in the draft.

[AlexGreen#20]

4 minutes ago, CWood21 said:

Because he was a snap jumper in college, and that doesn't translate to the NFL.  Add on the fact that he was limited physically, and that was a guy that was overrated, myself included.  I'd rather gamble on someone who has the physical skillset, but was a bit rough around the edges.

I think you could make the argument that Worthy had the lateral movement skills and anchor to be a decent enough run defender who would occasionally get some pressure with snap jumping. Not an entirely useless player but not a high celling guy.

[Packerraymond]

19 minutes ago, Shanedorf said:

You still haven't answered the question of naming who the Packers should have drafted in those specific slots. You're ascribing the Packers choices to a philosophy, I'm ascribing the Packers choices to who was actually available in those slots.

Did the Packers pass on Ryan Shazier and take Jake Ryan ? If so, then you're philosophy concept has merit and the Packers scouts & front office need to figure out why they whiffed so badly.

But if you look at who was on the board at that spot, there really weren't any Ryan Shaziers available. Look at where Datone was selected, who was the better DL on the board at that spot ? You can't draft from an imaginary deck filled with superior athletes/players.

With the benefit of hindsight, who did the Packers miss out on when they selected Rollins, Ryan, Datone, Lowry, Fackrell and others ?

http://www.drafthistory.com/index.php/teams/packers

Same challenge to you CWood....Worthy clearly wasn't worthy - but who was ? ( Devon Still was the other DT in consideration per Trgo, and Still flamed out in Cinci)

Kyler Fackrell was the 88^th pick in the 2016 draft.  The next 4 LBs taken were:

Joe Schobert (from WI) to the Browns, pick 99

Joshua Perry to the Chargers, pick 102

BJ Goodson to the Giants, pick 109

Nick Kwiatkowski to the Bears, pick 113

I don’t know anything about any of them and that’s where I was hoping for some insight from others. Are these guys SparQ heroes ? Are they superior football players ? Would they have been a wiser/better choices, but TT's alleged philosophy shift caused the Packers to miss out ?

"You can't win with players you don't have" (Pettine quote) 

"You can't draft players who aren't available"   (Wolf quote)

I don't have hours of free time to compile that list and it's a letter request anyway. Any GM would love to have you as an owner, can't make a bad pick if the other guys around you don't turn out? I disagree entirely. Datone busted hard, so did Pat Lee, are you telling me no matter what team picked them their career arc would've been the same? What if Deion Jones was coveted by a team who plays a more thumping 4-3 and he constantly got lost in the wash? Look at Casey Hayward, if he re-signed here are we talking about him as the best CB in the league? Any player could have an infinite amount of career paths based on who selected them, so it's a waste of time to look at your list and say "there were no good players" a GM should he judged on the players he selected to the team and how his evaluation placed them in those systems. Ted started off with a bang on the defense and went cold.

[Packerraymond]

16 minutes ago, AlexGreen#20 said:

Just looking at pro bowlers which is far from foolproof

2013 had 15 players drafted after the 2nd round make a pro bowl. The Packers drafted 3 of them.

Darius Slay, Kwann Short, and Jamie Collins all went before the Packers second round pick. Those 3, Honey Badger, and Micah Hyde are the 5 defensive pro bowlers drafted after the first round.

2014 had 8 probowlers drafted after the first round. The Packers drafted one of them. DeMarcus Lawrence at 34 and Telvin Smith at 144 were the only defensive players.

2015 had 6 pro bowlers drafted. Landon Collins at 33 and Kwon Alexander at 124 we're the only defenders. DJ Alexander made it as a ST guy.

2016 had 9 pro bowlers drafted. Deion Jones at 52 Kevin Byard at 64, Yannick Ngouke at 69 and Joe Schoebert at 99 were the defenders.

13 defensive players drafted after the first round between 2013 and 2016 have made a pro bowl

That isn't none, but it sure as **** isn't alot, and one of those guys was picked by TT.

 

Just looking at it positionally you've got:

CB: Slay

S: Hyde, Mathieu, Byard, Collins

DT: Short

ILB: Collins, Smith, Alexander, Jones, Schoebert

Edge: Lawrence, Ngokue

Tells you what spots are highly coveted in that first round

Maybe I'm not getting my point across, but where did I mention the Pro Bowl either? I'm simply saying Dom's early defense could match up with anyone athletically. Collins, Tramon, Shields, Burnett, Matthews, Raji, Neal, Hawk, Perry, Woods on, all guys he gave Dom that were top of the line athletes. Even guys that busted like Harrell, Rouse, Pat Lee and Jeremy Thompson had some good numbers. All of a sudden it was Damarious Randall, Quentin Rollins, Jake Ryan, Blake Martinez, Dean Lowry, Datone Jones (pretty solid athlete but position less), HHCD, etc. LIS when we played on turf that defense got exposed.

[Joe]

Half those guys couldn't stay healthy and we started drafting guys based on what they COULD be rather than what they were. It's an understatement that Dom should've been fired years before he actually was fired. Sure, Collins was a CB that got moved back to Safety, but there were very few questions as to where a BJ Raji, Matthews, or Perry would play. Perry has been a good elephant OLB when he's been healthy. However, we were trying to find the next Brett Keisel with Jones, who should've gone to a 4-3 scheme as he didn't have the bulk, strength, or twitch to play 3-4 DE at the next level. Randall was moved from S to CB because we were looking for speed at the position and it worked for a year until(like everyone else) injuries set in.

 

[squire12]

21 minutes ago, Packerraymond said:

Maybe I'm not getting my point across, but where did I mention the Pro Bowl either? I'm simply saying Dom's early defense could match up with anyone athletically. Collins, Tramon, Shields, Burnett, Matthews, Raji, Neal, Hawk, Perry, Woods on, all guys he gave Dom that were top of the line athletes. Even guys that busted like Harrell, Rouse, Pat Lee and Jeremy Thompson had some good numbers. All of a sudden it was Damarious Randall, Quentin Rollins, Jake Ryan, Blake Martinez, Dean Lowry, Datone Jones (pretty solid athlete but position less), HHCD, etc. LIS when we played on turf that defense got exposed.

Capers early success at his coaching stops then tailed off is as much of an influence as TT.

Capers wanted smart versatile players for the complex system he ran.  Possible TT was filling those requests.

[Shanedorf]

14 minutes ago, squire12 said:

Capers early success at his coaching stops then tailed off is as much of an influence as TT.

 

You've posted this multiple times here and I have to push back a little bit. The concept of a DC having early success and then tailing off isn't a Capers thing- it happens to every DC. I wrote a lengthy post about Vic Fangio, noting the exact same pattern of early success, followed by tailing off, followed by getting fired. Fangio is a very good DC, but he's also been fired 9 times in his career. Its a nature of the beast in the NFL. Wade Phillips was fired for sucking in Dallas, then got a boatload of talent in Denver and was back to not sucking. Until the talent dropped off, the winning slowed down and Wade was let go. Lather, rinse, repeat

If you go to Buffalo Bills blogs, you'll see them griping about Pettine and lauding Sean McDermott . Lather, rinse, repeat

[squire12]

6 minutes ago, Shanedorf said:

You've posted this multiple times here and I have to push back a little bit. The concept of a DC having early success and then tailing off isn't a Capers thing- it happens to every DC. I wrote a lengthy post about Vic Fangio, noting the exact same pattern of early success, followed by tailing off, followed by getting fired. Fangio is a very good DC, but he's also been fired 9 times in his career. Its a nature of the beast in the NFL. Wade Phillips was fired for sucking in Dallas, then got a boatload of talent in Denver and was back to not sucking. Until the talent dropped off, the winning slowed down and Wade was let go. Lather, rinse, repeat

If you go to Buffalo Bills blogs, you'll see them griping about Pettine and lauding Sean McDermott . Lather, rinse, repeat

So all GM'S suck at drafting talent after a few years of having a new DC?

[Packerraymond]

33 minutes ago, squire12 said:

Capers early success at his coaching stops then tailed off is as much of an influence as TT.

Capers wanted smart versatile players for the complex system he ran.  Possible TT was filling those requests.

I doubt Capers would've wanted to re-invent the wheel after the early success we had. IMO the sudden emphasis on versatility came from Ted wanting a young roster yet realizing the injury bug had done us in a lot. 

[Shanedorf]

 I'll stop flogging PR and dive a little deeper into the idea of a philosophical change.

All of these front office guys grew up in Wolf-World and Ron had some famous things to say about what types of players they needed to win in Green Bay WI:

“But what happened with the pick of Buckley is suddenly, we all realized, you can't play with little defensive backs in Green Bay. You can't play with little people up there in November and December. It's too hard. We had to get big people and a certain kind of person. So maybe that failed, but in the end result, we won because of it."

There are set parameters for Height Weight Speed etc in GB and most of them hearken back to Ron Wolf and his collection of very talented lieutenants. There are also certain parameters in terms of what type of citizens will thrive in Green Bay WI

The question becomes: Do you build a team to win at Lambeau in December/January or do you build a team to win at ATL or at N.O. for example ?

There is a difference in how you value certain traits for each venue. With AR under center, what's the best move ?

There has also been a seismic shift in the NFL rules, making it harder on DBs and defenses- what's the correct adjustment ? Do you still want bigger DBs, or do you now value speed more than height for example ? Should the Packers opt for ball skills since GB will often have a lead ? Or should they opt for different traits ?

What is the best philosophy going forward and is it reasonable to expect that you'll be able to draft those guys drafting at an average spot of # 28 ?

Will the Sparq heroes be able to handle the cold, wet field - or does the Frozen Tundra favor different types of players ?

 

[Shanedorf]

6 minutes ago, squire12 said:

So all GM'S suck at drafting talent after a few years of having a new DC?

No, what happens is that success = winning = worse draft picks.

Great article from 538 sports

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/no-team-can-beat-the-draft/

[squire12]

25 minutes ago, Shanedorf said:

No, what happens is that success = winning = worse draft picks.

Great article from 538 sports

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/no-team-can-beat-the-draft/

I am quite familiar with the concept

 

[AlexGreen#20]

1 hour ago, Packerraymond said:

Maybe I'm not getting my point across, but where did I mention the Pro Bowl either? I'm simply saying Dom's early defense could match up with anyone athletically. Collins, Tramon, Shields, Burnett, Matthews, Raji, Neal, Hawk, Perry, Woods on, all guys he gave Dom that were top of the line athletes. Even guys that busted like Harrell, Rouse, Pat Lee and Jeremy Thompson had some good numbers. All of a sudden it was Damarious Randall, Quentin Rollins, Jake Ryan, Blake Martinez, Dean Lowry, Datone Jones (pretty solid athlete but position less), HHCD, etc. LIS when we played on turf that defense got exposed.

Comparing 1st and 2nd round picks to guys like Ryan, Martinez, and Lowry just isn't a fair comparison.

[Packerraymond]

15 minutes ago, AlexGreen#20 said:

Comparing 1st and 2nd round picks to guys like Ryan, Martinez, and Lowry just isn't a fair comparison.

So you disagree entirely with the premise our defense got less athletic? I don't get your point here. I've heard you say that we aren't athletic but now you're fighting me saying that.