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2018 Free Agency - Prospects for GB


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Just now, Packerraymond said:

1.6 touchdowns a year. That worth the almost 500 yards more a season Jones has averaged the last 4 years? No.

So you use per year for touchdowns, but not yards? 

How about we compare it this way...

.1 extra touchdowns a game.
--vs--
32 extra yards a game.

Dalton
--vs--
Ryan

Yes.  I take the extra points. 

 

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Just now, Outpost31 said:

So you use per year for touchdowns, but not yards? 

How about we compare it this way...

.1 extra touchdowns a game.
--vs--
32 extra yards a game.

Dalton
--vs--
Ryan

Yes.  I take the extra points. 

 

Well we'll never agree on this. The points can be scored by anyone. Those 32 yards could be 3-4 first downs that extend drives to points. 

Anything used to keep Julio out of the top 5 is just grasping. You're probably alone again on this just like trading the best QB in the league.

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Targeted rate: Julio = # 1

Catch rate:   Julio =   # 100 at 60.9 %

Yards per catch: Julio = # 10

https://www.teamrankings.com/nfl/player-stats/

 

Julio draft capital = same draft capital to acquire Jennings, Jones, Jordy, Finley, Driver, Quarless, Lee, Starks, Kuhn... aka all of the the 2010 Super Bowl Champion skill players.

Its true, I ciphered it up  :)

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22 minutes ago, Shanedorf said:

Targeted rate: Julio = # 1

Catch rate:   Julio =   # 100 at 60.9 %

Yards per catch: Julio = # 10

https://www.teamrankings.com/nfl/player-stats/

 

Julio draft capital = same draft capital to acquire Jennings, Jones, Jordy, Finley, Driver, Quarless, Lee, Starks, Kuhn... aka all of the the 2010 Super Bowl Champion skill players.

Its true, I ciphered it up  :)

To me, the catch rate is explained easily by the target numbers. 

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to me, its just jousting around with stats.  WR's don't really matter

Calvin Johnson, TO, Moss, Fitzgerald, Julio, OBJ, Antonio Brown, Dez, AJ Green - all of the top fan favorites and stud WRs - none of em have a ring.

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13 minutes ago, Shanedorf said:

to me, its just jousting around with stats.  WR's don't really matter

Calvin Johnson, TO, Moss, Fitzgerald, Julio, OBJ, Antonio Brown, Dez, AJ Green - all of the top fan favorites and stud WRs - none of em have a ring.

Nothing in the NFL matters anymore if you don't have a QB or an all decade defense. Still receiver is probably one of the more fun positions to watch a truly dominant guy play.

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17 hours ago, Packerraymond said:

Well we'll never agree on this. The points can be scored by anyone. Those 32 yards could be 3-4 first downs that extend drives to points. 

Anything used to keep Julio out of the top 5 is just grasping. You're probably alone again on this just like trading the best QB in the league.

Seriously?  You value yards over points?!?!  Nobody ever won a game because they had more yards.  Wins are counted by points.

Again, Outpost isn't alone in his viewpoint (though you like to say that to him) Julio is a talented guy, but other than blowing up against an undermanned Packer secondary in the playoffs he's not top five, probably top ten though.

Points win games. That's the fact.

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30 minutes ago, Dubz41 said:

Seriously?  You value yards over points?!?!  Nobody ever won a game because they had more yards.  Wins are counted by points.

Again, Outpost isn't alone in his viewpoint (though you like to say that to him) Julio is a talented guy, but other than blowing up against an undermanned Packer secondary in the playoffs he's not top five, probably top ten though.

Points win games. That's the fact.

Its not just about the yards but also TOP and field position. Yards may not win you a game but they certainly don't hurt to have. 

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18 hours ago, JBURGE said:

Stats aren't everything lol

This was common with Favre and his interceptions. 

Bottom line, if a QB throws a lot of interceptions, they have a problem with interceptions.
If a receiver as good as Julio Jones lacks touchdowns, something is missing in his game. 

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2 hours ago, Dubz41 said:

Seriously?  You value yards over points?!?!  Nobody ever won a game because they had more yards.  Wins are counted by points.

Again, Outpost isn't alone in his viewpoint (though you like to say that to him) Julio is a talented guy, but other than blowing up against an undermanned Packer secondary in the playoffs he's not top five, probably top ten though.

Points win games. That's the fact.

If Atlanta was having problems scoring points that'd be one thing. The years they were bad are the years Ryan was bad. 

If Davante Adams has 1500 yards and 5 TDs but Jimmy Graham has 13 TD catches did Adams have a bad year?

There are other people to score the points, the backs, the other receivers, tight ends, etc...

If you told me Adams could have 1000 yards and 10 TDs or 1500 yards and 5 TDs I'll take the yards every time. That means he's moved us closer to the end zone 500 yards more. It will probably mean more team points, I couldn't care less how many individual TDs go to Adams.

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59 minutes ago, Outpost31 said:

This was common with Favre and his interceptions. 

Bottom line, if a QB throws a lot of interceptions, they have a problem with interceptions.
If a receiver as good as Julio Jones lacks touchdowns, something is missing in his game. 

Something that magically disappears from the 1 yardline to the red zone?

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You keep using Davante Adams. Davante Adams has had 22 touchdowns in his last two seasons.  He had 6 touchdowns last year with Brett Hundley throwing to him.  That's twice as many touchdowns with Hundley last year as Jones had with Ryan. 

Who is better, Clarice?  Hundley or Ryan?  (Not trying to insult you, I just watched the Hannibal trilogy). 

I am NOT trying to suggest Adams is better than Julio or that I'd prefer Adams to Julio, but Adams clearly has a skillset that Julio Jones does not have, and that skillset happens to be more valuable in the red zone than Julio's.  Julio does NOT have that step that Adams has or that body control in the red zone.  Adams has half the pure speed as Julio Jones, and yet he finds ways to get into the endzone by breaking ankles and absolute will.  He has that knack for getting open in the red zone that Julio simply doesn't have. 

Julio Jones is not the most complete receiver in the league.  That's Antonio Brown and if you say otherwise, you're just wrong.  Brown is the closest thing in the NFL right now to Jerry Rice. 

If the game was on the line and my team was in the red zone with Aaron Rodgers at QB, I would take Davante Adams or even Jordy Nelson over Julio Jones. 

And in this argument, you really gotta stop using one season.  This problem with Julio scoring touchdowns is not a one season thing.  It has been going on for his entire career.  You and I had this exact same argument last year and you said you'd admit it's a pattern unrelated to luck if Julio had under 8 touchdowns in 2017 (assuming health).  Julio played in all 16 games and had three touchdowns and you continue to neglect it. 

@Packerraymond, if Julio Jones plays in 16 games and Matt Ryan plays in 16 games this season and Julio has under 7 touchdowns, will you admit that it is a pattern unrelated to luck and that Julio has a problem scoring touchdowns?  I'll keep this going his entire career if I have to.  Nobody is arguing that Julio Jones is a bad receiver.  Nobody is arguing that Julio Jones is not a freak athlete.  Nobody is arguing that Julio Jones is not a top ten QB. 

The argument is that he struggles to make it into the end zone. 

6.83 touchdowns a healthy starting season for Julio.  Compared to 10.4 touchdowns a healthy starting season for Brown.  It's an element that's missing from his game, and you can't use yards for Julio compared to Brown. 

If you looked at the prime years of all the receivers active in the NFL right now, Julio would probably be the fourth or fifth best receiver in the NFL when looking at all aspects.  He is not the best receiver in the league. 
 

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