2018 Free Agency - Prospects for GB

[Arthur Penske]

My tin hat side thinks the reason gutey has target TE and CB ( more to come) in free agency is because there’s an edge he really wants in round 1.

[squire12]

6 minutes ago, ArthurPensky said:

My tin hat side thinks the reason gutey has target TE and CB ( more to come) in free agency is because there’s an edge he really wants in round 1.

Very well could be.  TE also take a while to produce in the NFL and EDGE rushers rarely reach FA.  Plenty of CB hit the market in FA.  

[pacman5252]

I’d love to see us target a TE to develop in the 3rd or 4th. R Rodgers isn’t worth bringing back and Kendrick’s will be off the team in 2019. We’ll be back in a similar spot in 12 months. Giving a guy like Ian Thomas a year to develop could pay dividends 

 

[Rodjahs12]

3 hours ago, ArthurPensky said:

My tin hat side thinks the reason gutey has target TE and CB ( more to come) in free agency is because there’s an edge he really wants in round 1.

I think this has more to do with the TE and CB market always being much stronger than the EDGE class. 

[vegas492]

20 hours ago, Sasquatch said:

On this topic of opinions by both Packer fans and sportswriters, I got into a heated discussion at the 19th Hole following a round of golf with a close friend.  He postulated that the Packers are in rebuild mode - I argued the opposite with my premise being, “we’re not in rebuild mode so long as Rodgers is still our franchise QB!”  

My point was that GB is certainly retooling, and trying to fill some major holes, but as long as Rodgers is healthy and playing at a high level, there’s no way this team is in rebuild mode.  Heck, look at the Saints.  They went from very average to a very dominant NFC team in just one year.  Teams that are rebuilding don’t have that kind of quick turn-around.  Am I wrong here?  

Granted, several barley pops were consumed by this time, but my golf buddy and I were very much at odds with each other, and because neither of us could listen or understand each other’s logic, we left the clubhouse bar shouting obscenities at one another.  Yeah, stupid I know, but we each felt very strongly about our positions.  Just because 1265 welcomed a new GM, defensive and offensive coordinators, and several other coordinator positions, along with several key personnel changes already, doesn’t automatically mean we’re in rebuild mode. Or am I stoned?

I think you will get your answer in the draft.  If Gute stays at #14 or trades up...re-tool.  If he trades down and accumulates more picks, then actually picks at those spots and we carry a ton of rookies into camp?  That is a re-build.

Personally, I think it is a re-tool.  But, this off-season has been a step back in terms of players.  And a step forward in terms of coaches.  Unsure about how to view the front office and the 3 heads of power.

[Ham Sammich]

5 minutes ago, vegas492 said:

 

Personally, I think it is a re-tool.  But, this off-season has been a step back in terms of players. 

I guess? But, it's March 30th. Nearly every offseason would be a step back in terms of players on March 30th if you set that as your cutoff. 

[vegas492]

1 minute ago, Ham Sammich said:

I guess? But, it's March 30th. Nearly every offseason would be a step back in terms of players on March 30th if you set that as your cutoff. 

I'm usually more optimistic about developing players on the roster.  I'm not so much this year.  Rookies are fine and dandy, but most take time to develop, that is why guys in year 2-4 are so important.  We whiffed in 2015, 2016 is looking pretty good but the injured guys from 2017 is a long list.  Again, not as optimistic as I've been in the past.  2015 was a killer.

[Ham Sammich]

2 minutes ago, vegas492 said:

I'm usually more optimistic about developing players on the roster.  I'm not so much this year.  Rookies are fine and dandy, but most take time to develop, that is why guys in year 2-4 are so important.  We whiffed in 2015, 2016 is looking pretty good but the injured guys from 2017 is a long list.  Again, not as optimistic as I've been in the past.  2015 was a killer.

Maybe, but I think you could argue the 2017 draft class will make them substantially better. 2/3 of your RB depth chart will have another offseason with Rodgers and one of those guys should return with a much better sense of pass protection. 

Both Josh Jones and Kevin King played an extensive amount of snaps last year. Even marginal improvement there (Jones with an easier playbook and King with a healthier shoulder) improves them on that side of the ball immensely. 

Graham for Nelson is probably a wash these days. You lose Burnett, but you still have $17 million in cap space. So, I just don't see a major drop off in talent on the roster between years. Especially if you consider getting Rodgers back since they were 4-1 with him before he went down. 

[Sasquatch]

@vegas492 @Ham Sammich  Interesting perspectives.  Taken both of your points into consideration, I’ll make this suggestion.  “If” GB grabs a few more solid vets in FA, and “if” they draft a defensive stud in round one that can make an immediate impact on the roster this season, and Gutey hits in the draft in general, then there’s hope for GB to make the most of Rodgers remaining years with this team - which would clearly be a re-tool and not a rebuild.  There’s several things that could de-rerail this, however, including injuries to key personnel (especially Rodgers), missing in the draft, etc, that could force GB into more of a rebuild model.  As you both have said, it’s still too soon to tell, and when I see my golf buddy today, that’s exactly what I’m going to tell him.  

[TheBitzMan]

I honestly think it is somewhere in between as a whole. They are rebuilding the defense but re-tooling the offense. 

[Sasquatch]

9 minutes ago, TheBitzMan said:

I honestly think it is somewhere in between as a whole. They are rebuilding the defense but re-tooling the offense. 

So, to some degree I’d agree, but let me pose this thought: other than replacing the defensive coordinator, how is this year any different than past years?  Every year for just about as far back as I can remember, GB has lost key personnel to free agency - just like this year.  It’s not like we’re Seattle, at least not yet anyway, with regard to the defense.  

[TheBitzMan]

Just now, Sasquatch said:

So, to some degree I’d agree, but let me pose this thought: other than replacing the defensive coordinator, how is this year any different than past years?  Every year for just about as far back as I can remember, GB has lost key personnel to free agency - just like this year.  It’s not like we’re Seattle, at least not yet anyway, with regard to the defense.  

I definitely agree on the player aspect of it but I think bringing in a new coordinator who has a completely different scheme can't be overstated. I also think shipping Randall out, signaled a change in culture/attitude. Which is why I tend to lean towards a rebuild on D.

As a whole it is clearly not a rebuild IMO. You don't rebuild with the best QB in the game on the back nine of his career and make the signings they have in a full rebuild.

[vegas492]

1 hour ago, Ham Sammich said:

Maybe, but I think you could argue the 2017 draft class will make them substantially better. 2/3 of your RB depth chart will have another offseason with Rodgers and one of those guys should return with a much better sense of pass protection. 

Both Josh Jones and Kevin King played an extensive amount of snaps last year. Even marginal improvement there (Jones with an easier playbook and King with a healthier shoulder) improves them on that side of the ball immensely. 

Graham for Nelson is probably a wash these days. You lose Burnett, but you still have $17 million in cap space. So, I just don't see a major drop off in talent on the roster between years. Especially if you consider getting Rodgers back since they were 4-1 with him before he went down. 

Kevin King played an extensive amount of snaps?  380.  Jones was at 700+.  That's a lot of snaps.  700.  You know that Josh Hawkins played more snaps than King?  Randall as a rookie had 750.  King was banged up and didn't play much at all.

Running back.  Jones is coming off of injury.  Williams is no game breaker.  Monty is injury prone.  

I look at the roster from this point last year to where it is now.  Rodgers is Rodgers.

2015 was a killer draft.  

Sorry, but I don't see the improvement as I have in the past.  King is still an injury risk, Mo quit on his team last year, Jimmy is fine.  Corner is much worse.  And it is a passing league.

Sure things can get better with second wave free agents, Matthews would help.  Breaux would be okay, but again, we are adding two injury risk guys to this team.  

If you want to be more optimistic, have at it.  

[craig]

1 hour ago, vegas492 said:

I'm usually more optimistic about developing players on the roster.  I'm not so much this year.  Rookies are fine and dandy, but most take time to develop, that is why guys in year 2-4 are so important.  We whiffed in 2015, 2016 is looking pretty good but the injured guys from 2017 is a long list.  Again, not as optimistic as I've been in the past.  2015 was a killer.

I feel kinda the same.  I've usually been a believer in +D, but not sure that many guys have made significant "2nd year jumps" in recent years.  So maybe my hopes/expectations are a bit muted. 

Other than 1st and maybe 2nd round picks, draft picks aren't likely to play much or help much for this rookie year.  

To get a strong roster boost for this season, I think we'd want to be seeing some *good* contributions and major emergence from recent draft picks who haven't done much.  Spriggs, Murphy, Lowry, Davis, Fackrell are 2016 picks who haven't added value yet.  From 2017, Adams, Biegel, Yancey, and Amichi are picks that didn't give value last year.  

Would really like to see several guys from those pools emerge as good players who deserve snaps and are value players for a championship team.  **If** Yancey or Davis emerged as legit quality NFL receivers, that could really help out the bad receiving group.  **IF* Spriggs or Murphy or Amichi or Patrick emerged as perfectly legit RG/RT guys, guys who could be capably starting on a championship offense, that would be huge.  *IF* Biegel and/or Adams emerged as good players and pass rushers, and Lowry maybe improved at least a little in run-D and perhaps created at least a teensy bit of pass-rush, that could help both pass and run defense.  

Need some of those guys to emerge as capable rotation players, playmakers sometimes, not just as roster-fillers.  

[vegas492]

29 minutes ago, Sasquatch said:

@vegas492 @Ham Sammich  Interesting perspectives.  Taken both of your points into consideration, I’ll make this suggestion.  “If” GB grabs a few more solid vets in FA, and “if” they draft a defensive stud in round one that can make an immediate impact on the roster this season, and Gutey hits in the draft in general, then there’s hope for GB to make the most of Rodgers remaining years with this team - which would clearly be a re-tool and not a rebuild.  There’s several things that could de-rerail this, however, including injuries to key personnel (especially Rodgers), missing in the draft, etc, that could force GB into more of a rebuild model.  As you both have said, it’s still too soon to tell, and when I see my golf buddy today, that’s exactly what I’m going to tell him.  

The two best moves, in my mind, that GB has made this off-season is Philbin and Pettine.

Rodgers will always give them a chance.  Rookies at corner can have impact.  Edge rushers?  Okay impact, but those guys typically turn it on in years 2 and later.

Vets in free agency now are still there for a reason.  Diminishing play, age, injury concerns.  I don't count on them at all.  Will be happily surprised if one produces nicely, and I think that Matthews could.

I believe that if Rodgers is to serious contend for another title, it will be because some younger kids take huge steps forward.  Looking at the continued development of Kenny Clark, Blake Martinez and Davante Adams.  And they could all get better.  Would be nice for 2017 draft class to step up...King, Josh, Adams, Biegle.