Offseason Rumor Thread

[BleedTheClock]

2 minutes ago, jrry32 said:

There's a huge difference between improving a skill you've consistently displayed and improving a skill you have not. 

His feet and mechanics were greatly improved during the Senior Bowl and Pro Day. It led to improved accuracy. I know it doesn't mean it's a fixed issue, but he clearly has been working on this already.

I remember thinking the same thing about Carson Wentz as a draft prospect. Thought he wasn't inaccurate, but he did have some accuracy problems tied to sloppy footwork. He showed up to the combine with improved footwork mechanics both in the pocket and on the move and it led to increased accuracy. I overlooked this improvement and was not a Wentz fan. I also didn't like that he played for a crap school and thought his jump to the pros would be rough. I don't want to make the same mistake with Allen.   Am I comparing Allen to Wentz? No, but I'm bringing up a recent example of a QB improving his footwork which led to increased accuracy.

 

And I don't think accuracy is as much of a big deal as others do in regards to Josh. Is he Tom Brady out there dropping perfect dimes? No, but he's not nearly as inaccurate at his completion percentage would lead people to believe. His detractors keep pointing to that number, but refuse to contextualize it.

[jrry32]

29 minutes ago, BleedTheClock said:

His feet and mechanics were greatly improved during the Senior Bowl and Pro Day. It led to improved accuracy. I know it doesn't mean it's a fixed issue, but he clearly has been working on this already.

I remember thinking the same thing about Carson Wentz as a draft prospect. Thought he wasn't inaccurate, but he did have some accuracy problems tied to sloppy footwork. He showed up to the combine with improved footwork mechanics both in the pocket and on the move and it led to increased accuracy. I overlooked this improvement and was not a Wentz fan. I also didn't like that he played for a crap school and thought his jump to the pros would be rough. I don't want to make the same mistake with Allen.   Am I comparing Allen to Wentz? No, but I'm bringing up a recent example of a QB improving his footwork which led to increased accuracy.

 

And I don't think accuracy is as much of a big deal as others do in regards to Josh. Is he Tom Brady out there dropping perfect dimes? No, but he's not nearly as inaccurate at his completion percentage would lead people to believe. His detractors keep pointing to that number, but refuse to contextualize it.

I'm talking about anticipation. 

[jrry32]

33 minutes ago, Superman(DH23) said:

Jrry big armed qbs rarely throw with anticipation in college for the simple fact that they dont have to.  Thats what people dont get about the big arm, its not about how far you can throw, its about how tight the window can be for you to throw into.  Allen simply has an ability to put the ball in spots the other qbs in this draft cant.

And that's why big-armed QBs often fail to live up to their draft status.

[Superman(DH23)]

3 minutes ago, jrry32 said:

And that's why big-armed QBs often fail to live up to their draft status.

Theres also a long legacy of examples of big armed qbs who learn to throw with anticipation in the league.  To me thats why the work ethic is so important. Russell didnt have that work ethic, Stafford did. But thats also why its hard to be an nfl talent scout.  One thing that doesnt seem to get better with work ethic is ball security and thats why Darnold would absolutely scare the hell out of me as an evaluator.

[jrry32]

9 minutes ago, Superman(DH23) said:

Theres also a long legacy of examples of big armed qbs who learn to throw with anticipation in the league.  To me thats why the work ethic is so important. Russell didnt have that work ethic, Stafford did. But thats also why its hard to be an nfl talent scout.  One thing that doesnt seem to get better with work ethic is ball security and thats why Darnold would absolutely scare the hell out of me as an evaluator.

Care to share the success stories?

[Superman(DH23)]

5 minutes ago, jrry32 said:

Care to share the success stories?

Stafford, Favre, Newton, Cutler, Rodgers to an extent (didnt show the same arm strength but he had some real problems with anticipation at Cal), Roethlisberger.  LIS its a long list.  Virtually every successful strong armed qb came into the league not throwing with anticipation and had to learn to adjust to it bc the windows get tight.  Just like every average armed qb came into the league already throwing with anticipation but still had to improve it and learn what they could and could not throw.

[jrry32]

5 minutes ago, Superman(DH23) said:

Stafford, Favre, Newton, Cutler, Rodgers to an extent (didnt show the same arm strength but he had some real problems with anticipation at Cal), Roethlisberger.  LIS its a long list.  Virtually every successful strong armed qb came into the league not throwing with anticipation and had to learn to adjust to it bc the windows get tight.  Just like every average armed qb came into the league already throwing with anticipation but still had to improve it and learn what they could and could not throw.

Newton and Cutler never became great anticipatory throwers. Favre is too long ago for me to comment. Stafford showed the ability in college. Rodgers and Ben are too far back for me to comment, but I have doubts that both lacked the ability in college.

[Broncofan]

22 minutes ago, jrry32 said:

Newton and Cutler never became great anticipatory throwers. Favre is too long ago for me to comment. Stafford showed the ability in college. Rodgers and Ben are too far back for me to comment, but I have doubts that both lacked the ability in college.

Both Rodgers and Big Ben were cited for accuracy and placement.  Both got dinged for playing in spread systems and ARod for his frame / Tedford system and Big Ben for his small school background.   

[Superman(DH23)]

2 hours ago, jrry32 said:

Newton and Cutler never became great anticipatory throwers. Favre is too long ago for me to comment. Stafford showed the ability in college. Rodgers and Ben are too far back for me to comment, but I have doubts that both lacked the ability in college.

Newton has become much better than he displayed in college.  Cutler threw with great anticipation with Marshall, Royal, Jeffrey.  Outside of those 3, hes really lacked trust in his wrs and more sees guys get open.  Stafford was no where near an anticipatory thrower all the way into his 3rd season in the league.  Rodgers and Ben both showed accuracy, but again, they saw guys get open in college and then throw it to them.  I was probably on Ben earlier than most.  I watched him as a sophomore give a pretty darn good Iowa team fits. Kept my eye on him for 2 years after that and he was my #1 qb in 04.  He had a big arm good athleticism at his size, and was a terriffic leader.  He is the guy I look at and say this is what Allen could be.

[BleedTheClock]

7 minutes ago, Superman(DH23) said:

Newton has become much better than he displayed in college. 

I remember the HC or the OC (can't remember which one) saying that they literally told him to look at one WR pre-snap based on the concept and if he wasn't open, just run. And if you watch the tape, this is exactly how he played it 90% of the time. Newton was ridiculously raw for a QB prospect. He threw with zero anticipation or pacing. Is he amazing at that now? No, but his growth in this area has been immense. He was way more raw as a passer than Josh Allen is now and I don't think the Panthers regret taking him #1 overall. If Cam Newton carried his team to a Super Bowl, I have no doubts that a guy like Josh Allen could do the same thing someday.

[Soko]

2 hours ago, BleedTheClock said:

So that stat is a real thing. However, he doesn't throw a bunch of bubble screens. He throws a lot of quick stuff to his TE on stick routes, but these aren't cheap completions against vanilla zones that you see against spread teams. Most teams go man-up on Wyoming and bring heavy pressure. Very few teams ran man coverage against Mayfield, Rosen, and Darnold because it's extremely difficult to do against a spread attack. There were much easier and clearer throwing lanes for all of those QB's listed. I don't even see how you could argue that.

He threw a fair amount of easy screens/RB dump offs. I don’t have the numbers but I watched his games. 

30% of his completions traveled 0-5 yards in the air. If we’re talking about a quarterback that knew he was going to be facing pressure, I’d want him to be able to complete some short passes to help tire the rush. I know Wyoming’s offensive play calling was pretty lackluster and showed no inclination towards giving Allen extra help, but you’d expect a higher completion percentage from a guy that throws it short so often. 

I’m not knocking him for his offense the way some try to do with Mayfield - I’m saying that his results within what he was asked to do were only sub par.

2 hours ago, BleedTheClock said:

Josh Allen has seen more of what simulates NFL offense/defense than any of the other QB's in this class. There will be significantly less of a learning curve for him as a passer than there will be for the others. Whether or not he can improve his footwork consistency is one thing, but I'm not at all worried about how he handles NFL defenses. This is a legitimate concern for the other QB prospects that I don't have with Josh.

Allen may have seen more NFL style concepts (which is a statement I don’t get behind, honestly) but he’s also shown he isn’t exactly excelling against them. His competition isn’t going to get easier, so when a player struggled at a lower level of competition, that has to be a concern. 

Not that Allen “struggled” exactly, but he didn’t showcase his accuracy or technique as much as the others. He showcased his arm and legs, though.

2 hours ago, BleedTheClock said:

 

I know it seems like I'm Josh Allen's biggest supporter, but I'd be salty if the Browns took him at #1. Sam Darnold is the best QB in this draft class to me. And Baker/Rosen are safer than Allen. But people dropping this "4th round" garbage takes are hilarious. It's blatantly obvious who has watched the film on Allen and who is going along with popular and false narratives based around stupid player comparisons.

Well, I agree that saying he’s a 4th rounder is pretty off-the-mark. But I don’t think you’re discussing Allen with anyone who really thinks that. 

The completion & INT percentage get overblown but he isn’t a particularly consistent passer in terms of accuracy. His mechanics have shown improvement since the season ended, but I’m not really sold on it being a fix once live NFL games start (I would feel this way about any quarterback - it takes more than an offseason to create a base that he needs). 

As a player, he’s the clear bottom of the 4, for me - with Lamar Jackson close behind.

[BleedTheClock]

1 minute ago, Yin-Yang said:

He threw a fair amount of easy screens/RB dump offs. I don’t have the numbers but I watched his games. 

30% of his completions traveled 0-5 yards in the air. If we’re talking about a quarterback that knew he was going to be facing pressure, I’d want him to be able to complete some short passes to help tire the rush. I know Wyoming’s offensive play calling was pretty lackluster and showed no inclination towards giving Allen extra help, but you’d expect a higher completion percentage from a guy that throws it short so often. 

I’m not knocking him for his offense the way some try to do with Mayfield - I’m saying that his results within what he was asked to do were only sub par.

Allen may have seen more NFL style concepts (which is a statement I don’t get behind, honestly) but he’s also shown he isn’t exactly excelling against them. His competition isn’t going to get easier, so when a player struggled at a lower level of competition, that has to be a concern. 

Not that Allen “struggled” exactly, but he didn’t showcase his accuracy or technique as much as the others. He showcased his arm and legs, though.

Well, I agree that saying he’s a 4th rounder is pretty off-the-mark. But I don’t think you’re discussing Allen with anyone who really thinks that. 

The completion & INT percentage get overblown but he isn’t a particularly consistent passer in terms of accuracy. His mechanics have shown improvement since the season ended, but I’m not really sold on it being a fix once live NFL games start (I would feel this way about any quarterback - it takes more than an offseason to create a base that he needs). 

As a player, he’s the clear bottom of the 4, for me - with Lamar Jackson close behind.

Pretty fair assessment here. The only thing I'll argue is the bolded. He played much better in the Senior Bowl and showed the ability to play in the pocket and out on the run. He threw with touch, accuracy, and anticipation in the game. Was it a supremely small sample size? Absolutely. But I think the difference lies in him playing with other NFL caliber talent. It's pretty much impossible to play with composure and precision when you're running for your life and trying to throw to guys that are blanketed. Every teammate he has in the NFL will be the best players he's ever played with in his life. The competition will be better, bigger, stronger, and faster. But for once, we'll get to see whether or not Allen can actually play the game when given a fair shake.

 

The scariest thing about Josh Allen is what's unknown. Can he develop the traits that he was never really allowed to develop at Wyoming? Or am I, and other draftniks, drastically underselling his mental makeup? It's really hard to tell how to feel about Allen because admittedly, so much of what he can be is a projection. But this isn't freaking Logan Thomas or even EJ Manuel. Josh Allen is much more polished coming into the league than those fools AND he has a once in a lifetime arm. Once in a lifetime is often overstated, but I have never seen an arm like Allen's. It's better than JaMarcus Russell's IMO. I'm very intrigued with his skills and I really do believe that if he lands on a team that will give him time to sit and learn, he's going to become a great NFL QB. He could easily flop out of the league entirely and be the next Logan Thomas, but it'd honestly shock me. He's a great kid...a smart kid....with a hilarious amount of raw ability. We don't really know what Allen can be based on his college tape, but you see glimpses of what could make him an NFL HOF'er and then you see glimpses of what could make him a bust. I hate to say this, but you almost have to throw away the tape to a degree when looking at Josh because of the surrounding talent. They were beaten by San Jose State without Josh Allen. The same San Jose State team that lost by like 60 points to everyone they played other than Cal Poly & Wyoming. That program is a joke and would have dragged down any of these top QB's right along with it.

[Iamcanadian]

For what it is worth, talent wise Allen is the #3 QB in this draft behind Darnold and Rosen, however Rosen has a very serious red flag re: injuries and that alone drops him to #3 in the QB pecking order. If he was healthy, he would be challenging Darnold for the #1 spot.

So there is no way I would take Allen #1 overall based on his current talent level, it is all Darnold for me. That being said, Allen, if he works hard at his profession, certainly has the potential to top this class a few years down the road and will be a good pick for a team prepared to wait for his success. Cleveland is not that team. Their GM has 2 years to make good as their owner has fired every FO he has had after 2 seasons and he has already forced Dorsey to keep Hue as his HC even with his 1-31 seasons.

Cleveland needs a QB who can really produce by season 2, end of story and only Darnold has that potential as of now!!! 

Looking at Allen, he obviously needs to work on his accuracy even if he played on a college team that had few WR's who could get separation, he is not a fine tuned QB and needs to fix his mechanics if he wants success at the next level and that is why he will need more time to work on his game before he sees success.

If I was a GM and I believed strongly that Allen could fix his weaknesses and Haslam was not my owner/boss, I would draft him in a minute, but Cleveland is stuck with Haslam and that's life!!!  

[jrry32]

1 hour ago, BleedTheClock said:

I remember the HC or the OC (can't remember which one) saying that they literally told him to look at one WR pre-snap based on the concept and if he wasn't open, just run. And if you watch the tape, this is exactly how he played it 90% of the time. Newton was ridiculously raw for a QB prospect. He threw with zero anticipation or pacing. Is he amazing at that now? No, but his growth in this area has been immense. He was way more raw as a passer than Josh Allen is now and I don't think the Panthers regret taking him #1 overall. If Cam Newton carried his team to a Super Bowl, I have no doubts that a guy like Josh Allen could do the same thing someday.

Josh Allen can't run like Newton. There's no comparison. Newton.was unstoppable in college. Allen was quite stoppable in college.

[August4th]