Draft Rumors

[Broncofan]

52 minutes ago, Iamcanadian said:

While Mayfield may indeed be a 15 talent, the demand for his services after Darnold, Allen and Rosen are gone, will drive his worth up into the 10 to 12 range where a huge bidding war will take place between Arizona and Buffalo. Buffalo has the extra picks to move up, but Arizona has the higher picks to offer, so some team will be getting an awful lot of extra assets on draft day.

The loser will settle for Jackson or possibly Keenum.

You're not including MIA - that's the other team that could go QB at 1.11.  I think Mayfield's floor is 1.15 - but I think he could easily go to NYJ if the first 3 QB are gone, or MIA at 1.11.  In that event, then it's down to Jackson at 1.15 (or earlier if it entices a team to try to move in front of ARI).   Now, if only 3 QB's go before 1.15, then ARI probably happily takes Mayfield...leaving BUF with Jackson in their sights.  But it's all out of their hands barring a crazy move into the NYJ area of picks - which is a steep price to pay for the 4th/5th QB in this draft).

This is probably one of the most unpredictable drafts in a while in trying to figure out the top 15 picks - usually there are some easy locks, it's hard to pidgeon hole any pick right now.   Trying to predict the order of how it will go down is insane.

[CWood21]

4 hours ago, Broncofan said:

You're not including MIA - that's the other team that could go QB at 1.11.  I think Mayfield's floor is 1.15 - but I think he could easily go to NYJ if the first 3 QB are gone, or MIA at 1.11.  In that event, then it's down to Jackson at 1.15 (or earlier if it entices a team to try to move in front of ARI).   Now, if only 3 QB's go before 1.15, then ARI probably happily takes Mayfield...leaving BUF with Jackson in their sights.  But it's all out of their hands barring a crazy move into the NYJ area of picks - which is a steep price to pay for the 4th/5th QB in this draft).

This is probably one of the most unpredictable drafts in a while in trying to figure out the top 15 picks - usually there are some easy locks, it's hard to pidgeon hole any pick right now.   Trying to predict the order of how it will go down is insane.

I mean, predictable in the sense of knowing where every player is going?  It's no different than any other draft in that sense.  In having a general idea of where players are going to go?  Not any more or less than any other year.  We're pretty sure we're going to see at least 3 QBs in the top 5, probably four in the top 12.

[Broncofan]

23 minutes ago, CWood21 said:

I mean, predictable in the sense of knowing where every player is going?  It's no different than any other draft in that sense.  In having a general idea of where players are going to go?  Not any more or less than any other year.  We're pretty sure we're going to see at least 3 QBs in the top 5, probably four in the top 12.

That's fair, but usually we know stuff like Garrett (or Clowney, etc.) going 1.1, or Solomon Thomas top 3.... when it's a QB draft, we know that Goff-Wentz are 1-2, or Winston-Mariota.  This year, we can't even agree who the 1st/2nd guys are overall, and certainly are all over the place on the 1-2-3 order for the top 3 QB's.  That type of uncertainty is usually seen in the 2nd half of Rd1, not the very top.

[CWood21]

2 minutes ago, Broncofan said:

That's fair, but usually we know stuff like Garrett (or Clowney, etc.) going 1.1, or Solomon Thomas top 3.... when it's a QB draft, we know that Goff-Wentz are 1-2, or Winston-Mariota.  This year, we can't even agree who the 1st/2nd guys are overall, and certainly are all over the place on the 1-2-3 order for the top 3 QB's.  That type of uncertainty is usually seen in the 2nd half of Rd1, not the very top.

I mean, there's a difference between a clear cut top prospect (i.e. Myles Garrett) and everyone else.  And Solomon Thomas wasn't the lock for the top 3 that I think you're led to believe.  Not to mention, we're discussing this almost two months out from the draft.  We're going to have a better idea of the picks a few days before the draft.  Not really a fair comparison to make.

[Broncofan]

3 minutes ago, CWood21 said:

I mean, there's a difference between a clear cut top prospect (i.e. Myles Garrett) and everyone else.  And Solomon Thomas wasn't the lock for the top 3 that I think you're led to believe.  Not to mention, we're discussing this almost two months out from the draft.  We're going to have a better idea of the picks a few days before the draft.  Not really a fair comparison to make.

If we get to a consensus that plays out, totally fair take.  It is early to call this with any certainty - I just have a strong feeling we won't get any consensus on the top 5 order, when it's all said and done.  But that's a gut feeling, certainly not a certainty (or close) at this point.   FWIW, we are 6 weeks out, but point taken.

[Iamcanadian]

I believe there is almost a consensus on the top QB's, people just do not want to accept it, because it rubs them as inaccurate, but the scouts and GM's have likely made up their minds by now.

1) Darnold

2) Rosen 

3) Allen,  if Allen has made huge strides working with a pro style QB coach over the last 2 months and has shown significant progress, he could even challenge Darnold, but right now, he is only #3., if not, this will likely be his spot.

4) Mayfield - considerable distance between himself and the top 3

5) Jackson

6) Rudolph

As for the top 5 picks, I can see possibly 5 of the top six drafting teams being involved in trades, because there will be a rush on QB's right out of the gate! Cleveland will take their guy at #1, but what happens with 2, 3, 4, 5, and 6 is anybody's guess.

[Tugboat]

4 hours ago, Iamcanadian said:

I believe there is almost a consensus on the top QB's, people just do not want to accept it, because it rubs them as inaccurate, but the scouts and GM's have likely made up their minds by now.

1) Darnold

2) Rosen 

3) Allen,  if Allen has made huge strides working with a pro style QB coach over the last 2 months and has shown significant progress, he could even challenge Darnold, but right now, he is only #3., if not, this will likely be his spot.

4) Mayfield - considerable distance between himself and the top 3

5) Jackson

6) Rudolph

As for the top 5 picks, I can see possibly 5 of the top six drafting teams being involved in trades, because there will be a rush on QB's right out of the gate! Cleveland will take their guy at #1, but what happens with 2, 3, 4, 5, and 6 is anybody's guess.

You seem really convinced there's a clear hierarchy of QBs in this draft.  Even though we've seen and heard of clear indications that this isn't necessarily the case.  Lamar Jackson being the obvious big wildcard in that, but we've had all sorts of reports that different teams prefer different guys even among the rest of the group.

I think it's entirely possible we could see at least 4, maybe even 5 teams walk away from the draft with one of their Top-2 ranked QBs.  That's what makes this QB class, and draft in general so intriguing right now.

[jetskid007]

Not necessarily a rumor, but you look at all the "insiders" out there who are beginning to release their post combine mocks and they all have Darnold/Allen as the two top QBs taken in varying orders followed by Rosen/Mayfield also in varying orders. Jeremiah and Zierlien routinely go out of their way to state how mocks are what he's hearing vs. what he feels and both have Allen as the 2nd QB off the board (FWIW, Jeremiah ranks Allen as his 4th best QB; Zierlien has him 5th). Others who have jumped on the bandwagon: McShay, Reuter, Miller (I know, I know), Iyer, Mayock, Kiper, Banks... the list keeps growing, which makes you wonder if these guys are hearing something. Why else would they flip-flop Rosen and Allen?

[goldfishwars]

Man Zerlein has the Browns trading up from four to take Josh Allen, there’s something poetically perfect about that if it happens.

[Tugboat]

45 minutes ago, goldfishwars said:

Man Zerlein has the Browns trading up from four to take Josh Allen, there’s something poetically perfect about that if it happens.

It honestly wouldn't shock me...especially from the Browns (though maybe this time it's different?).  But i don't get this at all.  If you want a QB and value him higher than 4, and you have the 1st pick...just take the guy at #1 man.  Why goof around and get cute with it, if you're committed enough to trade up from #4 to get that guy?  Just seems like the same sort of thinking that caused them to worry overly about "getting value"...by passing on Wentz in the first place.

[goldfishwars]

7 minutes ago, Tugboat said:

It honestly wouldn't shock me...especially from the Browns (though maybe this time it's different?).  But i don't get this at all.  If you want a QB and value him higher than 4, and you have the 1st pick...just take the guy at #1 man.  Why goof around and get cute with it, if you're committed enough to trade up from #4 to get that guy?  Just seems like the same sort of thinking that caused them to worry overly about "getting value"...by passing on Wentz in the first place.

Yep.

And just absolutely the worst place for Josh Allen to land, whatever you think of him. 

[Tugboat]

1 minute ago, goldfishwars said:

Yep.

And just absolutely the worst place for Josh Allen to land, whatever you think of him. 

Yeah.  That too really.  Nothing like a raw guy with a somewhat problematic hero complex to begin with, being asked to come in and save a zero win franchise that seems to chew QBs up and spit them out better than anyone else around.  With a HC who i'd put zero faith in developing a guy like Allen successfully.  

[jetskid007]

7 hours ago, goldfishwars said:

Man Zerlein has the Browns trading up from four to take Josh Allen, there’s something poetically perfect about that if it happens.

I think when all is said and done, Allen is going #1. They’ll give him the Carson Palmer treatment (sit entire first year), and he’ll be the starter next year. McCarron bets on himself and puts tape out in an offense he knows, has a chance to get a mega deal in 2019 (will only be 29). That’s how I’m reading this

[MWil23]

7 hours ago, goldfishwars said:

Yep.

And just absolutely the worst place for Josh Allen to land, whatever you think of him. 

It's worst case scenario for both parties involved and I want no part of it.

[Kip Smithers]

If teams are gonna pass on Rosen because essentially he sounds too mature then NFL teams are dumber than I thought. I have never understood this insatiable need for players, most notably QBs, to hide their personality. Why do people prefer false humility over real honesty? 

Rosen is gonna make some teams look like fools.