Drafting big-armed QBs that flop

[bzane]

Exciting video of Kyle Boller throwing a football 80 yards from his knees and dropping into a toilet...... or something.

WARNING: Only 1:00 long, but annoying vid of two television idiots screaming at each other in a mock argument, one of them holding a Kyle Boller cut-out mask in front of his face in order to act the part of Kyle Boller. Viewers wishing to spare themselves the sophomoric "entertainment" can skip ahead to the 29-second mark to see the actual pass. A vivid example of an uncannily-strong arm that didn't avail its owner much:

 

[Chwf3rd25]

List of the "Big Arm/Toolsy But Raw" QB Prospects Drafted in the First Round:

2017

Patrick Mahomes - jury still out

2016

Paxton Lynch - bust

2015

Blake Bortles - dissappointment

2014

Cam Newton - hit

2008

Joe Flacco - hit

2007

Jamarcus Russell - miss

2003

Kyle Boller - miss

Not sure if i'm missing anyone or my memory is mistaken as to some of these guys.

 

[Ozzy]

13 hours ago, Chwf3rd25 said:

List of the "Big Arm/Toolsy But Raw" QB Prospects Drafted in the First Round:

2017

Patrick Mahomes - jury still out

2016

Paxton Lynch - bust

2015

Blake Bortles - dissappointment

2014

Cam Newton - hit

2008

Joe Flacco - hit

2007

Jamarcus Russell - miss

2003

Kyle Boller - miss

Not sure if i'm missing anyone or my memory is mistaken as to some of these guys.

 

 

I feel you did miss a few 1st round QBs which I posted earlier... Also guess it depends on ones definition of "Big Arm/Toolsy but Raw" as well.  I would view these guys as some what raw QB prospects coming out of college but had big arms.    

 

 

Cam Newton - (obviously raw and still is as a passer but has flashes of making some great throws and plays with his arm)

EJ Manuel - (was thought of as a great leader and personality for QB and had the size and a decent arm but just never worked)

JP Losman - (could run very well and had a cannon for an arm on the move)

Josh Freeman - (despite early success, had a 4,000 yard passing year, then before that two seasons of almost 3500 yards passing)

Daunte Culpepper - (was nice for him to sit out his first year, had some ok seasons but fumbled a ton and few a lot of INTs)

Ben Roethlisberger - (not a finished product coming into the league but had huge upside with his size and ability to throw rockets on the run)

Byron Leftwich - (nice big arm, had other issues with quickness in the pocket and release but tough kid and fine arm)

Ryan Leaf - (huge kid and huge arm, temperament was an issue indeed however)

Akili Smith - (super raw coming into the league but had a great arm)

Mitchell Trubisky (mostly because he only had 1 year as a full time starter in college)

 

 

[MSURacerDT55]

16 hours ago, Ozzy said:

What else is there for him to impress upon people?  Kid had a really big arm and could throw it extremely far.  He was not great in the pocket but when the ball left his hand it was impressive and it really is the main reason he was drafted because of that upside and raw throwing talent I think.   Was not as good with shorter passes though and that final SR year was not impressive either, still ok project QB for sure.     

His SR year was bad our OC was trash and was forcing him to be a square peg in a round hole, look at him and every other tOSU with Herman, they all were successful. This guy didn't know what he was doing, look at Cardale in 14 compared to 15, look at JT in 14 compared to any other year, look at Kenny Guiton and what Herman did with him in 2013, even Braxton did well with Herman. Your coordinators play a large part in putting you in position to be successful in a lot of cases.

[CalhounLambeau]

There is understandably a lot of confidence/arrogance with many people who have risen through the ranks in the NFL whether it be ownership, front office, coaches. The confidence people have in taking someone with strong genetic attributes and molding/fixing them is still something that's embedded in the DNA of many NFL people.

[MSURacerDT55]

Just now, CalhounLambeau said:

There is understandably a lot of confidence/arrogance with many people who have risen through the ranks in the NFL whether it be ownership, front office, coaches. The confidence people have in taking someone with strong genetic attributes and molding/fixing them is still something that's embedded in the DNA of many NFL people.

Careers as coaches are hinged on that as well, some coaches are intoxicated with tools.

[BleedTheClock]

On 4/15/2018 at 9:40 AM, Don Roshi said:

Has a "raw" QB prospect ever actually worked out? Especially one with a poor college career.

Cam Newton was beyond raw.

Matthew Stafford was pretty raw.

Joe Flacco was pretty raw.

 

Arm strength is super important. You can't get the football into tight windows--the only windows that exist in the NFL--if you have a pea shooter. I think it's overkill at a certain point and passing a threshold is all you really need to be able to do, but we significantly devalue how important that skill is. I don't look for combine/pro-day arm strength. I need to see it on tape manifested by throwing between defenders. Josh Allen has the ability to get the ball to well covered WR's because it gets on them so fast the defenders can't even break on the ball. That's a special talent. I think it's worth bumping him up the board taking this into consideration. The problem for him is, that Darnold and Mayfield also have strong enough arms to do those things as well. And they don't have as many issues with accuracy.

So yeah, arm strength is very important, but it shouldn't be a make-or-break factor for your QB's so long as they don't have a weak arm. Being able to throw it 80 yards or 60 off of one knee is cool, but it doesn't move the needle for me. Being able to throw from awkward angles on the run into tight seams does impress me and it's something that Josh Allen does very well.

 

Not all big-armed QB's are made alike. Some have other traits that will allow them to be successful and others don't. Don't draft guys with big arms that played in dink 'n dunk systems and can't throw the ball accurately. Don't draft big-armed QB's that have no leadership skills and can't deal with pass rushers.

 

This thread is pretty much specifically designed for Josh Allen, am I right? He's more than just a big arm who can't be accurate. I challenge everyone to go watch 5 tapes of Allen and come back and tell me he's not worthy of a high draft pick. And it's not just because of his arm talent. That obviously stands out above all else, but he's a great leader, scans the field, makes pro style reads and throws pro style routes, he has zip on his throws, and is a stud athlete when it comes to avoiding rushers and making spectacular plays out of nothing. He has other tools than just having a strong arm. Also, I challenge you to watch his WR's. They are blanketed every single play while Allen is forced to run for his life behind a hodge-podge of dog poop that they call the Wyoming OL. He misses his fair share of throws he NEEDS to make. But his completion percentage is more a result of the scheme he plays in and the lack of talent around him. While people will look to the drop rate and say it's not THAT bad, look at the "WR's getting open" rate. Nobody's ever open in that scheme. Compare that to Oklahoma, where their spread offense has guys sitting open at all 3 levels seemingly every play. Not a slight at Baker, but I think if you switched the two QB's, people would be talking about how bad Baker's completion percentage was in college.

Daniel Jeremiah put it best the other day. With Josh Allen injured, Wyoming lost to San Jose State. San Jose State won 2 games last year. And their other win was against Cal Poly. None of their other contests were even close. San Jose State is a wretched football team. And they beat Wyoming without Allen.  Wyoming had literal dog turds playing the other 21 positions. People don't seem to be letting this sink in hard enough when factoring in whether or not Allen will be a successful NFL player. You can't expect him to look like a world-beater when he's running for his life trying to determine which blanketed WR he's going to throw it to.

[RandomCampBody]

Can't really compare Josh Allen to Cam Newton, Cam dominated the best conference in college football and was the best player on the field while winning a national championship and Heisman trophy. Josh Allen isn't even close to Newton.

[Mox]

On ‎4‎/‎15‎/‎2018 at 3:53 PM, Scout said:

He also beat FSU and Alabama though 

And wasn't even supposed to play his senior season because of a car accident.

[Groink]

Kyle Boller was horrid.  He had a big arm and that was it.  He could not play the game of football at a competent level in college, why they thought they could make that work at the next level is beyond me.  If someone compares Allen to Boller (I've seen this comparison) then I can pretty much see they don't know what they're talking about.  It tells me they haven't watched any tape.

[BleedTheClock]

11 hours ago, RandomCampBody said:

Can't really compare Josh Allen to Cam Newton, Cam dominated the best conference in college football and was the best player on the field while winning a national championship and Heisman trophy. Josh Allen isn't even close to Newton.

Cam Newton was playing with other studs. Josh Allen is playing with a bunch of mongoloids. I don't think he's as good as Cam, but if you put Cam on this Wyoming team, they have the same record they had with Allen. Don't kid yourself.

[mission27]

On 4/15/2018 at 7:51 AM, JaguarCrazy2832 said:

Is anyone else frustrated by the constant attention that big-armed QBs with accuracy/anticipation issues get year after year? As if GMs remember you cant teach size and arm strength but teaching someone mechanics and how to be accurate is so easy. Does this frustrate you guys as well? Just seems like every year there are guys rated so much higher on boards because they are 6'6'' and can throw it a mile and for the most part those guys dont get the help they need. I feel like part of this is because of another thread I've mentioned before where guys that need to develop and are drafted highly are never afforded the opportunity to sit for long anymore before they are thrust into the starting role. 

I guess the high-potential is something teams salivate over like a pitcher with a rocket arm or a big man in basketball that is 7'0 and can move but does anyone think this is a constant issue in the NFL?

Tbf there are plenty of counter examples where the big body, big arm guy was the right pick... 

Big Ben was the tall guy with the cannon from the small school in the 2003 draft, went third behind Eli and Rivers, but probably was the best QB in that draft, first ballot HOF

Jay Cutler, same deal, never fully panned out but was a starter for 10 years and much better than Young or Leinart

Joe Flacco, same deal, isn't great, but again 10 year starter, won a Super Bowl, Ravens have to be happy with that pick 

Matthew Stafford, big arm, plenty of accuracy issues, is now one of the best QBs in the league, much better than Sanchez who was more of the complete package but didn't have the arm talent

Cam Newton, ditto, he's a superstar 

I'm sure there are plenty of other examples but being very tall and having a great arm are valuable traits.  There are a lot of different profiles to success in the NFL.  There's a reason teams keep picking these guys.

 

[mission27]

On 4/16/2018 at 10:11 AM, Ozzy said:

 

I feel you did miss a few 1st round QBs which I posted earlier... Also guess it depends on ones definition of "Big Arm/Toolsy but Raw" as well.  I would view these guys as some what raw QB prospects coming out of college but had big arms.    

 

 

Cam Newton - (obviously raw and still is as a passer but has flashes of making some great throws and plays with his arm)

EJ Manuel - (was thought of as a great leader and personality for QB and had the size and a decent arm but just never worked)

JP Losman - (could run very well and had a cannon for an arm on the move)

Josh Freeman - (despite early success, had a 4,000 yard passing year, then before that two seasons of almost 3500 yards passing)

Daunte Culpepper - (was nice for him to sit out his first year, had some ok seasons but fumbled a ton and few a lot of INTs)

Ben Roethlisberger - (not a finished product coming into the league but had huge upside with his size and ability to throw rockets on the run)

Byron Leftwich - (nice big arm, had other issues with quickness in the pocket and release but tough kid and fine arm)

Ryan Leaf - (huge kid and huge arm, temperament was an issue indeed however)

Akili Smith - (super raw coming into the league but had a great arm)

Mitchell Trubisky (mostly because he only had 1 year as a full time starter in college)

 

 

Add Jay Cutler to this list. 

Jay Cutler was the guy in 2006. He is also by far the most successful QB to come out of that draft, like him or not.

[mission27]

People also forget how raw Matt Stafford was.  The guy completed 57% of his passes in college throwing to Mohammed Massaquoi and AJ Green.  He was basically drafted because he had a big arm.

[Tugboat]

Physical tools are still valued for a reason.  Sure, plenty of bigtime project QBs with big arms have busted...but frankly, a lot of QBs of all shapes and sizes have busted.  It's the nature of the position.  A lot of them simply won't make it in the NFL.  I think it's a bit of confirmation bias to just look at all the big and tall, big arm guys and assume they're the only ones who bust at a fairly alarming rate.  It's realistically just QBs in general who bust or disappoint at a scary rate...and big arm projects certainly aren't immune to that.  It's the nature of the position, because there's really no such thing as a "solid rotational quarterback".    They either pan out as quality starters, or teams look to replace them.  Very Pass-Fail.  Simple as that.

I mean, you want to talk about "QBs who profile as busts"...it's the guys with noodle arms that are probably the biggest risk.  iirc There's basically one guy, maybe 2 now in the combine era who have thrown 50mph or less and made it as "starters" in the NFL.  Tyrod Taylor...and maybe Deshaun Watson, though the jury is still probably out on that longer-term.  The number of starting caliber QBs who fall below that typical 54-55mph threshold is also exceptionally short, and the odds of success in general even as long-term NFLers goes down drastically.  Why do teams keep drafting these guys who lack the arm to throw the ball with velocity???  

Physical tools still matter.  That includes arm strength in a QB.  Just the same as it includes a guy like Lamar Jackson's physical tools as a running threat, despite falling into that major "danger zone" for QB velocity clocked at 49mph at the combine.  Teams are desperate for QBs largely because a lot of them don't make it, and will overlook any number of serious flaws trying to strike gold.  Just seems the "raw with a big arm" profile gets the most negative attention.