Broncos QB Battle - Siemian it is

[thebestever6]

27 minutes ago, BroncoBruin said:

Hard to sell your team on competing this year if you trade one of the No Fly Zone starters. Bad idea all around.

You're not looking at any variables you're taking the skip bayless approach and making blanket statements.

[1234567]

1 hour ago, BroncoBruin said:

Hard to sell your team on competing this year if you trade one of the No Fly Zone starters. Bad idea all around.

It's possible that they think his hamstring injury is gonna linger throughout the season. At his age, it sure could.. I doubt we re-sign him next year, so unless they know he's gonna stay healthy enough to be a pro bowl level player this season, why not get something for him while we can? I'd love for him to stay, but I do understand the logic. You're right though; that would definitely not sit well with the rest of the team. 

[BroncoBruin]

1 hour ago, thebestever6 said:

You're not looking at any variables you're taking the skip bayless approach and making blanket statements.

This is a complete joke of a response. It's also in no way true. Do better.

[BroncoBruin]

12 minutes ago, 1234567 said:

It's possible that they think his hamstring injury is gonna linger throughout the season. At his age, it sure could.. I doubt we re-sign him next year, so unless they know he's gonna stay healthy enough to be a pro bowl level player this season, why not get something for him while we can? I'd love for him to stay, but I do understand the logic. You're right though; that would definitely not sit well with the rest of the team. 

I don't think he'll be re-signed but they can get more value letting a team overpay him next year, and it doesn't disrupt team chemistry this year.

[thebestever6]

7 hours ago, AnAngryAmerican said:

Here's where my earlier baseball analogy doesn't work - and I had forgotten about it at the time - is that, unless Ward's play totally falls off the cliff this year, he is likely to get another decent-sized contract from another team in the offseason, meaning we can get a respectable compensatory pick, probably not a 3rd but a 4th. So we won't be walking away empty-handed when Ward leaves in the offseason. 

For what it's worth, Brandon Stokley and Troy Renck were just killing this idea on The Fan. Both agreed it would majorly disruptive to the locker room as TJ is one of the more popular, well-liked and better-respected players on the team. We just lost DeMarcus Ware, I really don't think it's wise that we jettison another veteran leader. TJ is also key on the field in terms of helping to setup coverages and direct traffic pre-snap. They said unless we're getting a big upgrade at a major position of need, trading TJ makes zero sense. I agree. I also think TJ is important in run defense and given that we didn't do a whole heck of a lot of upgrade that in the offseason, this is not a good idea just about any way you slice it. 

Local media and fans opinions mean very little to me when getting rid of a player. A lot of the perspectives are scewed.

If I told you Collins was gonna be the best player on New Yorks D last year honestly what would you say? You'd say im nuts and not all there. Given their big named players and free agent signings youd name 4 or 5 guys higher going into the season.

Maybe the infusion of youth and talent outweighs leadership we have no clue.

 

This move reminds me so much of getting rid of Prater the fan base loved him we all loved him. He kicked the Broncos to the playoffs in 2011. But McManus isn't half bad.

[champ11]

http://presnapreads.com/2017/08/29/nfl-quarterback-tiers-evaluations-ahead-of-the-2017-season/

Here's a particularly negative view on Siemian 

[germ-x]

3 hours ago, champ11 said:

http://presnapreads.com/2017/08/29/nfl-quarterback-tiers-evaluations-ahead-of-the-2017-season/

Here's a particularly negative view on Siemian 

Pro Football Focus isn't high on Siemian either.  Pro Football Focus tracks every throw and grades it and Siemian was their 28th ranked starter last season.  I've said it 1,000x now, but he wasn't good, not even close to it.  He had a couple of good games, but make no mistake he was part of the offenses problem last season.

I love Siemian too.  I love his grit, competitiveness, and toughness.  In those categories I think he's elite.  Physically, though, he's average at best.  He'll be a fan favorite and I think he is likely the starter for at least a few more years and will give any challengers a real competition, but Elway will be on the hunt for a QB of the future if it's not Lynch, which I personally don't think it is.  I expect Kelly, Lynch, and Siemian to compete for the job next year and I wouldn't be surprised if Kelly wins it in a few years if they don't find anything better.

[germ-x]

Remember when Kyle Sloter was the best QB on the roster?

[Broncofan]

On 8/21/2017 at 7:37 PM, Broncofan said:

Beat reports throughout the TC counted all the picks and pick-6's made.  Sloter wasn't immune to the issues all the QB's faced and Sloter didn't play on the 1's.  

If Sloter was lighting up the practices the coaches would likely take notice.   As much as the Lynch-ascension angle no doubt had Elway backing remember that he & Kubiak recognized when Sanchez as plan A was a massive mistake & went to Siemian over Lynch.  The same principle no doubt applies with Elway & VJ - for all the public talk refusing to name Siemian as a starter it was likely just that - a public talk for show because they called a competition for 2 weeks.  

If Sloter was opening eyes vs better competition he'd be getting more buzz.  The fact he's even getting PS buzz (seems a lock) is a great accomplishment.  

But let's not get ahead of ourselves.   Remember the best QB performances in the preseason rarely count to much and when you factor playing in 1H vs 2H it means pretty much nothing to succeed in 2H preseason.   Don't believe me? Take a look at the preseason passing leaders since 2013-2016: 

 

2013 - Case Keenum, Matt Simms, Rex Grossman, Ryan Mallett, Brian Hoyer

2014 - Austin Davis, Scott Tolzien, Ryan Nassib, Jimmy G, Zach Mettenberger

2015 - Brett Hundley,, Colt McCoy, Matt McGloin, Joe Webb, Brock Osweiler

2016 - Stephen Morris, Dak Prescott, Tom Savage, Bryce Petty, Josh Johnson.  

Source - http://www.footballdb.com/stats/stats.html?lg=NFL&yr=2016&type=pre&mode=P&conf=&limit=all

Yes 3 names stand out - Hundley Prescott Jimmy G.   And a lot of guys who aren't NFL caliber even at backup levels.  And in Prescott / Jimmy G / Hundley's case a lot of their work came in the 1H.   And of course they were also seen as the next guys in line .   Maybe Sloter breaks the mold but the PS data tells us not to get too excited - and especially more so if it's guys playing in the 2H.  

Sloter has done all he can to stick to our PS - he should be lauded for that.   And he should get a shot as the season progresses to show if there is more there for sure.  But let's not project way ahead of ourselves.  That's probably the same thinking the coaches have and TBH it's hard to find fault here.   History supports this by a mile.  

Since the Sloter talk has been mostly in the PS Observations thread (a GD thread for Week 4 was pretty unnecessary) - to continue the Sloter talk from last night, where no doubt ppl will look back here first, I'll repost the above post from 10 days ago (in response to criticism that the coaching staff wasn't considering him for anything but the 3rd QB and likely PS) to highlight the problem with looking at preseason stats alone to judge Sloter or any QB - look at the list above, for the guys that excelled statistically in the PS.  Like Sloter, almost all of them faced the 2H D's, or in yesterday's case, the 2nd/3rd stringers on Week 4 (as 1st-string guys mostly sat out, or were really limited given the wish to avoid injury week 4 PS).  

Now, look at the 2017 stats list - http://www.footballdb.com/stats/stats.html?mode=P&yr=2017&lg=NFL&sort=passtds

They haven't sorted it yet, but look at the leaders, and what do you see?  Sure, guys like Brady, Carr, Wilson stood out - no surprise.  But they faced the 1st-string D's, and then left.   They won't get enough snaps to probably qualify for the filter when final top stats lists from PS come out.   No one doubts their #'s, not just because of their track record, but it was also done vs. the starting D's.   So who were the 2017 leaders?  Well:

Cooper Rush

Kyle Sloter

Kevin Hogan

Austin Davis

CJ Beathard

Then names like Trubisky (who played again behind Glennon so faced the subs), Bryce Petty, David Fales, Jake Rudock, Tyler Bray show up.  Sure, guys like Wentz, Stafford, Palmer & JimmyG show up around then too - but once again, those guys in the latter group played against the 1st-teamers, that group above and the Petty/Bray/Rudock/Fales group faced 2H D's with 2nd/3rd stringers (or in game 4, the whole game with 2nd/3rd string D).

So which group do you think fits more Sloter's profile from 2013-2017?   I'll save the trouble - it isn't the Carr/Brady/Wilson (or even Wentz/Carson Palmer/JimmyG section).   Again, this is why preseason stats are meaningless without context.   Watching the actual gameplay, and also factoring in who the QB is facing, is miles more important here.   

Sloter has done all he can to ensure he deserves a spot on the PS, no doubt.  Without injury to our backup, that would still be a fantastic outcome for him.  And given our injury situation with Lynch, Sloter may be our backup for the next few games.  But let's not go off meaningless PS stats to project readiness or greatness, or to kid ourselves on him being ready now to just be OK - if we actually need him to play meaningful snaps in regular season games, at his current level of development, we're in deep, deep trouble.  Anyone who actually watched the game can see where Sloter struggles when the game speed is a lot closer to true regular-season speed saw that.  There's some potential, but a lot of work to do.   

 

[BroncoSojia]

25 minutes ago, Broncofan said:

Since the Sloter talk has been mostly in the PS Observations thread (a GD thread for Week 4 was pretty unnecessary) - to continue the Sloter talk from last night, where no doubt ppl will look back here first, I'll repost the above post from 10 days ago (in response to criticism that the coaching staff wasn't considering him for anything but the 3rd QB and likely PS) to highlight the problem with looking at preseason stats alone to judge Sloter or any QB - look at the list above, for the guys that excelled statistically in the PS.  Like Sloter, almost all of them faced the 2H D's, or in yesterday's case, the 2nd/3rd stringers on Week 4 (as 1st-string guys mostly sat out, or were really limited given the wish to avoid injury week 4 PS).  

Now, look at the 2017 stats list - http://www.footballdb.com/stats/stats.html?mode=P&yr=2017&lg=NFL&sort=passtds

They haven't sorted it yet, but look at the leaders, and what do you see?  Sure, guys like Brady, Carr, Wilson stood out - no surprise.  But they faced the 1st-string D's, and then left.   They won't get enough snaps to probably qualify for the filter when final top stats lists from PS come out.   No one doubts their #'s, not just because of their track record, but it was also done vs. the starting D's.   So who were the 2017 leaders?  Well:

Cooper Rush

Kyle Sloter

Kevin Hogan

Austin Davis

CJ Beathard

Then names like Trubisky (who played again behind Glennon so faced the subs), Bryce Petty, David Fales, Jake Rudock, Tyler Bray show up.  Sure, guys like Wentz, Stafford, Palmer & JimmyG show up around then too - but once again, those guys in the latter group played against the 1st-teamers, that group above and the Petty/Bray/Rudock/Fales group faced 2H D's with 2nd/3rd stringers (or in game 4, the whole game with 2nd/3rd string D).

So which group do you think fits more Sloter's profile from 2013-2017?   I'll save the trouble - it isn't the Carr/Brady/Wilson (or even Wentz/Carson Palmer/JimmyG section).   Again, this is why preseason stats are meaningless without context.   Watching the actual gameplay, and also factoring in who the QB is facing, is miles more important here.   

Sloter has done all he can to ensure he deserves a spot on the PS, no doubt.  Without injury to our backup, that would still be a fantastic outcome for him.  And given our injury situation with Lynch, Sloter may be our backup for the next few games.  But let's not go off meaningless PS stats to project readiness or greatness, or to kid ourselves on him being ready now to just be OK - if we actually need him to play meaningful snaps in regular season games, at his current level of development, we're in deep, deep trouble.  Anyone who actually watched the game can see where Sloter struggles when the game speed is a lot closer to true regular-season speed saw that.  There's some potential, but a lot of work to do.   

 

I think the excitement is due in large part to Siemian and Lynch completely underwhelming the fanbase, but yeah your entire post is spot on

[Broncofan]

27 minutes ago, BroncoSojia said:

I think the excitement is due in large part to Siemian and Lynch completely underwhelming the fanbase, but yeah your entire post is spot on

That's fair.  Really only Siemian is the only capable 2017-only QB on our roster right now (not talking down the line, I mean next week).  If he goes down, we are screwed.  Problem is that Lynch isn't gone long enough to really consider IR'ing him, and the backup QB landscape is horrible (CK's issue with us from a pure football perspective is that his short-throw accuracy is awful and he's not great at quick reads...that's a no-can-do for a McCoy O, even as a backup.  I mean, it's a huge reason why Lynch is struggling right now, along with his mental game shortcomings in making quick reads, ball placement is a must).

[paul-mac]

I expect us to sign Christian Ponder or Austin Davis again.

[Broncofan]

5 minutes ago, paul-mac said:

I expect us to sign Christian Ponder or Austin Davis again.

Simply because he knows our team (even if it's a different scheme) I'd say Davis if we go the vet route.  

[paul-mac]

Just now, Broncofan said:

Simply because he knows our team (even if it's a different scheme) I'd say Davis if we go the vet route.  

 

Ponder was a Bronco in 2015 and Austin Davis last year, that's why I think it could be one of them. Although they're both vested veterans which means if they're on the roster week 1, they're salary becomes fully guaranteed (whereas if we sign them for week 2, it doesn't).

 

I could see us keeping Sloter as the backup for the LA game, then waive him, sign Davis/Ponder and sign Sloter to the practice squad.

[Broncofan]

Just now, paul-mac said:

 

Ponder was a Bronco in 2015 and Austin Davis last year, that's why I think it could be one of them. Although they're both vested veterans which means if they're on the roster week 1, they're salary becomes fully guaranteed (whereas if we sign them for week 2, it doesn't).

 

I could see us keeping Sloter as the backup for the LA game, then waive him, sign Davis/Ponder and sign Sloter to the practice squad.

Yeah the week 2 option seems the right call.   Obv with Ward they are thinking $ in a big way so waiting 1 week is likely the angle there.  Good call.