2018 Draft Eligible QB Thread

[rickyt31]

I do agree what was said about Allen, there are things he should work on. I just think if you plug him at a program like USC or other programs, his numbers would look a lot better. People barley remember that Wyoming have a football program. His tape will be really important.

 

Currently checking out Browning right now. Will be interesting to see how he does without Ross.

[smokeybandit]

Max Browne will do nothing at Pitt.  Pitt was in extreme desperate need for a QB with no one on the roster after Nate Peterman left.  So they took Browne.  

[Scout]

If you're looking for this years out of nowhere 1st round QB, watch for Stidham at Auburn and Lee at Nebraska. Both are transfers so they don't have 2016 film, but both have a lot of arm talent. Interesting to see how they develop as both are 2019 Seniors. 

[coach4fu]

Still think Mike White will shoot up boards.

[CWood21]

On 8/13/2017 at 4:29 PM, Forge said:

On tape, I do expect to see him get better. Last year was his first year of college. Andrew Luck completed 56% of his passes his first year as well, so I'm not going to be majorly concerned with it right now, so long as I see improvement this season. 

And I'm not trying to write him off, but in the era where offenses have literally become backyard touch football completing 60% of his passes isn't exactly a high bar to clear.  Last year, Baker Mayfield led all of NCAAF in CMP% at 71%.  There were 58 college QBs (including Baker Mayfield) that completed 60%+ of their passes.  That means, Josh Allen was in the bottom half in terms of completion percentage.

[IDOG_det]

13 hours ago, coach4fu said:

Still think Mike White will shoot up boards.

Who else do you like in this class?

[Lions017]

10 hours ago, CWood21 said:

And I'm not trying to write him off, but in the era where offenses have literally become backyard touch football completing 60% of his passes isn't exactly a high bar to clear.  Last year, Baker Mayfield led all of NCAAF in CMP% at 71%.  There were 58 college QBs (including Baker Mayfield) that completed 60%+ of their passes.  That means, Josh Allen was in the bottom half in terms of completion percentage.

Is completion percentage relevant in college? You can't compare him to all other college QB's when most of them run a spread offense. He runs a pro style offense and makes a lot of throws and decisions that other teams don't even attempt. 

[Fureys49ers]

11 minutes ago, Lions017 said:

Is completion percentage relevant in college? You can't compare him to all other college QB's when most of them run a spread offense. He runs a pro style offense and makes a lot of throws and decisions that other teams don't even attempt. 

He does, but that's where the problem is, or concern lies. He was making the throws and decisions that will be asked of him in the pros and proved to be questionable when making them. I'm a lot easier on QB prospects than most as I don't expect them to be finished products coming out of college and expect all to improve once they begin receiving NFL coaching. However Allen has 4 games with a 50% completion rate or lower, 50% against Nebraska, 38.9% against Colorado St., 45% against UNLV and 45% against SDSU, not exactly teams that have notable secondaries.

Now while I do agree the talent surrounding him isn't what other QBs have he's also not playing against the talent that other QBs are. Last year he did have an NFL caliber RB in Hill to take focus away from himself and help with play actions, had two receiving options now playing on NFL teams who have a legit chance to make their team in Hollister at NE and Gentry in Chicago, and a WR in CJ Johnson who is still developing but has potential to be playing for an NFL team in the future. QBs have definitely had worse weapons to work with.

He was only asked to throw the ball about 26 times a game while the offense averaged 43 carries a game. Now cartaintly some of those "carries" were Allen taking off from the pocket after dropping back for a pass but a lot were designed QB runs as well, to which he had varying success. My point is he certainly wasn't asked to carry the offense last year. He also finished the last quarter of the season, when the light started to shine on him, with question marks as his completion % fell, his yards and yards per attempt dropped, pretty much had a 1:1 TD:INT ratio all while his number of attempts increased. 

Dont get me wrong, the kid has a lot of talent but there are still a tremendous amount of question marks sureounding his game. Now being a first time starter last year I expect to see struggles and growing pains but would have liked to see improvement towards the the end of the season as opposed to regression when a lot of defenses began to take notice of the kid and when more was being asked for him. This upcoming year will be very telling, obviously, on not only what kind of QB Allen can be but what kind of kid he is by responding to all the 1st round/tons of potential talk but the end of last year is a bit concerning. 

[Ray Reed]

So apparently Mora thinks Rosen will also stay another year after this one. 

No Darnold and Rosen could make some of these fans hoping for a top 3 pick this year a liiiiitle nervous.

[Forge]

25 minutes ago, Ray Reed said:

So apparently Mora thinks Rosen will also stay another year after this one. 

No Darnold and Rosen could make some of these fans hoping for a top 3 pick this year a liiiiitle nervous.

I saw that, but given Rosen's comments about school / athletics, I absolutely do not believe it. I could see Darnold not coming out and not be surprised. If Rosen doesn't declare (barring a major regression in his play during the season or a major injury), I'd be floored. 

[Scout]

I think this Rosen criticism is nothing but scuttlebutt over the comments he makes to the media. He's not afraid to speak his mind but that doesn't make him a bad dude.

[CWood21]

2 hours ago, Ray Reed said:

So apparently Mora thinks Rosen will also stay another year after this one. 

No Darnold and Rosen could make some of these fans hoping for a top 3 pick this year a liiiiitle nervous.

I feel like we go over this every year...what if the top QBs don't declare?

[IDOG_det]

3 hours ago, Ray Reed said:

So apparently Mora thinks Rosen will also stay another year after this one. 

No Darnold and Rosen could make some of these fans hoping for a top 3 pick this year a liiiiitle nervous.

He also wouldn't commit to that sentiment in the same statement. It is likely that Rosen leaves early.

[Ray Reed]

2 hours ago, IDOG_det said:

He also wouldn't commit to that sentiment in the same statement. It is likely that Rosen leaves early.

Fair enough. I certainly wouldn't be floored if he stayed, but with a great season after next year id say the odds would be 80/20 he leaves after those recent school comments.

[Mind Character]

***I'm assuming all posts/threads on the old version of the forum will be deleted soon so I'm reposting this due to its relevance for future discussion.*******

 

 

The 2018 QB Class

I'm multiple games in on various prospects and the 2018 QB class is filled with what I think are 5 Franchise QB types, 2 of them (Sam Darnold and Luke Falk) with immediate Day 1 Franchise QB impact and being on a different level in terms of overall skill for elite QB play than the other 3 (Josh Rosen, Josh Allen, Riley Ferguson) that possess major franchise QB upside but have more glaring deficiencies or limitations in their game that may ultimately prevent them from ascending to blue chip franchise QB status. After watching 8 games, I feel that people don't even know about Luke Falk's special poise and pocket awareness and how it is on the level of Darnold, albeit Luke's are isn't in the same universe as Darnold, Allen, or even Rosen. For a lot of people, that is the be all end all...I don't see it that way given his other great qualities, ability to throw with exceptional anticipation, and his natural whip delivery. less superior arm talent. If the players remain healthy, Sam Darnold and Josh Allen will go 1 and 2 b/c they have superior arm tools and look the part more than Falk.


Tier 1--Blue-chip QB1, Day 1 Franchise QB:

1.Sam Darnold, USC (8 games watched):
The Good: Uncanny poise, foot quickness, and power arm in the face of exterior and interior pressure. Pocket movement skills advanced. Elite deep ball velocity and pinpoint accuracy. Uncanny anticipation thrower instincts for such a young QB. See's it and processes early and has the confidence to let it rip before the WR is open.
The Bad: Tries to guide throws in at times instead of ripping it leading to poor mechanics and spotty inaccuracy. Jump shuffles a la Aaron rodgers but unlike Rodgers Darnold doesn't maintain a wide base so often finds himself out of rhythm on timing throws when outside pressure is beating down on him.

2a. Luke Falk, Wash. St.(10 games watched):
The Good: Elite poise, elite pocket movement under pressure. Routinely back shoulders when the CB is over the top. Great vision. Protypical pass set and shuffle rhythm where feet are always ready for a mechanically sound throw. Really spins it. Mike Leach's system has evolved and puts a ton of offensive line adjustments and receiver changing of routes at the line in the QBs hand---Faulk signals quickly and seems to diagnose the defense quickly. Self made walk on player that can take hard coaching.
The Bad: Fades in the pocket and throws off back foot too often. Sometimes short arms throws over the middle. Multiple games where defensive pressure had no chance to get to him due to great offensive scheming. Not sure about his knowledge in blitz pick up. A lot of five wide sets...would love to see him under center.

Tier 2- Franchise QB, Superstar Upside:

2b. Josh Rosen, UCLA:(10 games watched)
The Good: Sidenote--will be the most misunderstood prospect when people finally start to watch him and realize his game doesn't always "jump off the tape." Those that have heard all the hype that he's the next Luck-type will be shocked at his lack of major arm strength and will in a reactionary fashion call him "overhyped, the next Matt Leinart, and not good." They'll miss that although he's not Luck what he is, is the best technicien in terms of pocket movement work and throws with uncanny anticipation on the level of phillip rivers coming out of college. The best pinpoint ball placement on drive routes with timing. More pinpoint accurate and better anticipatory thrower version of Andy Dalton. Constantly puts the ball in places to maximize run after catch and to protect the WR.
The Bad: Arm strength is uneven and often marginal. Slow-footed athlete. Decision-making seizes up under pressure. Holds the ball too long waiting for the primary receiver to come open instead of moving on to the net read. Tends to stare things down too much. Needs a sturdier front foot when inside pressure comes as a result he tends to fade when perceiving pressure with the result being inaccurate passes.

2c (but is 1a off of talent alone). Josh Allen, Wyoming- the magical unicorn (7 games watched):
The Good: More deep ball power velocity than Mahomes. A-plus athlete. Rare Unicorn type throws outside the pocket. What he does in terms of throwing the ball outside the pocket on the run is a notch above Mahomes and Manziel and more in line with Rodgers in terms of fitting the ball in the smallest of windows on the sideline.
The Bad: Some of the worst late throw interceptions of all time. Inconsistent decision maker. Believes no throw is impossible. Over strides and poor mechanics lead to the ball sailing. Flees the pocket too soon. Poise is great on one play than really bad next. When he runs cold, it can be hard to watch as there becomes a snowballing of poor decisions.

5. Riley Ferguson, Memphis: (8 games watched)
The Good: Ultra competitor. Can be a force on the field with his competitive spirit to the point where his teammates come alive on the sideline and raise their level of play in critical moments based on his energy. Gunslinger in the truest of senses. Deep ball bucket thrower extraordinaire.
The Bad: Pocket movement and footwork is underdeveloped and inconsistent. Not a great anticipation thrower. Needs to be in the West-Coast two read Deep to Boundary offense as he struggles with opposite side of the field 1,2 progression reading. Escapes to run from the blitz instead of trying to win in the pocket. Would be perfect in Saints offense as Drew Brees successor.


Tier 4: Potential Franchise QB---Developmental Starter with Good Tools and Traits

6. Lamar Jackson, Louisville
The Good: Beyond elite running ability there is some overlooked Big time arm talent. All his throws are all whipped arm from the upper body as he has the worst lower body mechanics and narrow base in the history of football (overstated but it's awful). Does a good job stepping up in the pocket to throw.
The Bad: The most narrow base thrower in the history of the game. Basically up on his toes with no leverage or weight transfer from back to front leg.. Who the hell is not coaching him on this?? Narrow base with his feet together in his passing set lead to all inaccuracies, all misses.

7. Brett Rypien, Boise St.
The Good: Great anticipation thrower. Understands the proper footwork for pro-WR routes that allow perfect timing on velocity throws. Nice deep ball drop in the bucket thrower. Has a full grasp of the audible game and getting the offense out of bad situations.
The Bad: Arm strength may be a serious issue in the pro game. Needs to get the ball out faster in the redzone. Tends to hold onto the ball to avoid mistakes too often in the redzone foregoing plays that are there and need to be made. Needs to play more free and let it rip.

7. Baker Mayfield, Oklahoma
The Good: When he's hot, he's a franchise changing QB with his blitz avoidance movement, ability to win inside and out the pocket, and deep ball accuracy.
The Bad: Hot and cold on decision making in the same quarter. Too inconsistent with footwork. Throws too many 50/50 balls.


Tier 5--Developmental QBs with Tools:

8. Mason Rudolph, Ok St.
The Good: Great sideline timing thrower. Good accuracy thrower on the deep post.
The Bad: Parachute on his deep ball. Doesn't respond to inside pressure with the ability to sidestep or move up to find a new platform to throw.

9. Quinton Flowers, USF
The Good: A gamer. Will be the biggest riser. David Garrard type with more explosive athleticism and big time arm. Clutch performer with the ability to win and slide in the pocket to throw on timing.
The Bad: Escapes pressure to run when remaining patient might provide a big time passing opportunity. Needs to work on throwing with anticipation


The Next 3: ---Need to watch more but saw some limitations that I didn't like.

12. Trace McSorley, PSU
13. Jake Browning, Washington
14. Jarrett Stidham, Auburn



All-Overrated But will get a lot of love
Drew Lock, Missouri: Feet in mud, statue, can't handle the rush.
Nick Fitzgerald, Miss St: Feet in mud, feet stuck under pressure, can only throw in a clean pocket