2018 Draft RB Thread

[VanS]

11 hours ago, Chwf3rd25 said:

John Kelly and Mark Walton are both frustratingly underhyped right now.  I think it'll change eventually but it's pretty crazy how little they get talked about with their incredibly exciting skillsets.

I agree with this sentiment. There are 5 first round RBs IMO:

1. Saquon Barkley (Penn State) - reminds me of Fred Taylor....hopefully he can stay healthy and fulfill his potential

2. Rashaad Penny (San Diego St.) - reminds me Curtis Martin...such an explosive runner

3. Ronald Jones II (USC) - basically a clone of Jamaal Charles

4. John Kelly (Tennessee) - physical tough runner

5. Mark Walton (Miami) - dynamic explosive runner

- I'm working on comps for John Kelly and Mark Walton.  But I feel good about the other 3.

[CalhounLambeau]

3 minutes ago, VanS said:

1. Saquon Barkley (Penn State) - reminds me of Fred Taylor.

That's a really good stylistic comparison.

Fred Taylor was such a rare guy. Not many people are that laterally explosive at 6'1" 235.

I watch his Youtube highlights all the time just for fun.

[Jlash]

15 minutes ago, VanS said:

I agree with this sentiment. There are 5 first round RBs IMO:

1. Saquon Barkley (Penn State) - reminds me of Fred Taylor....hopefully he can stay healthy and fulfill his potential

2. Rashaad Penny (San Diego St.) - reminds me Curtis Martin...such an explosive runner

3. Ronald Jones II (USC) - basically a clone of Jamaal Charles

4. John Kelly (Tennessee) - physical tough runner

5. Mark Walton (Miami) - dynamic explosive runner

- I'm working on comps for John Kelly and Mark Walton.  But I feel good about the other 3.

Pretty sure you posted this before, but you're not a Guice fan right?

[Forge]

On 1/31/2018 at 7:41 PM, sherm said:

Chase Edmonds is late rd RB Kyle Shannahan can work with.

I'm an edmonds fan, so I'd be okay with this. Needs to stop bouncing everything to the outside though. Thats not going to work at the next level. Needs to get better about finding small creases on the interior to get through. 

[VanS]

32 minutes ago, Jlash said:

Pretty sure you posted this before, but you're not a Guice fan right?

I was bothered by his performance against Florida in 2016.  That was as close to an NFL defense as he's faced and he struggled.  He's not very big, he's not great at breaking tackles, and he doesn't have great wiggle/make u miss ability.   I'm never big on running backs whose best skill set is hitting the home run when there is a crease but can't really make people miss or break tackles.

Not saying he'll be a bust.  But I'm just not feeling him as a prospect.  I would take Sony Michel over him as well personally.

[VanS]

41 minutes ago, CalhounLambeau said:

That's a really good stylistic comparison.

Fred Taylor was such a rare guy. Not many people are that laterally explosive at 6'1" 235.

I watch his Youtube highlights all the time just for fun.

Yeah I was watching his highlights today and was struck by how similar they are to Barkley's.  The only difference between the two is Saquon is about 2 inches shorter and he looks to have a thicker base.  Hopefully that translates to better durability and health.  Cause the only thing that kept Fred Taylor from being a Hall of Fame RB was nagging injuries early in his career.  Otherwise he was special.

[Chwf3rd25]

4 hours ago, MSURacerDT55 said:

I agree about Kelly, I love his competitive nature and how hard he runs, my only question is his long speed, I can't wait to see what his 40 time is, he could easily be he flavor of the month with a good 40 time.

I don’t really care that much about a RBs 40 time unless it’s awful

[BleedTheClock]

4 hours ago, CalhounLambeau said:

That's a really good stylistic comparison.

Fred Taylor was such a rare guy. Not many people are that laterally explosive at 6'1" 235.

I watch his Youtube highlights all the time just for fun.

Probably my favorite RB of all-time (if you count Alstott as a FB).

I thought about making this comparison before, but I think Barkley is more elusive. Taylor was very elusive, but Barkley is a little more so. The comparison makes sense, as I don't know if there are any other better ones to make. I have been searching for one for a while, but Fred Taylor is the closest one. A rich man's Fred Taylor, which is saying something.

 

@VanS I don't really get your Curtis Martin=Rashaad Penny comparison. When I think of explosive, Curtis Martin is not the guy that comes to mind. Martin was a patient runner with great toughness and elite vision. I don't think he was ever a really explosive runner. To be honest, I don't think Penny is all that great. I have him comped as a Tevin Coleman kind of runner. Coleman's a good player, but not worth a 1st round pick.

Side note about Penny: I've seen some crazy wide variations of prospect comparisons for him. I've seen him compared to scat backs, power backs, receiving backs, elite vision backs....the comparisons are all over the place with players that are unlike one another. I've seen him compared to Tevin Coleman (mine), Curtis Martin, Terrell Davis (wut?), Kareem Hunt, and Buck Allen to name a few. These comparisons are bizarrely all over the place IMO.

[BleedTheClock]

4 hours ago, VanS said:

I was bothered by his performance against Florida in 2016.  That was as close to an NFL defense as he's faced and he struggled.  He's not very big, he's not great at breaking tackles, and he doesn't have great wiggle/make u miss ability.   I'm never big on running backs whose best skill set is hitting the home run when there is a crease but can't really make people miss or break tackles.

Not saying he'll be a bust.  But I'm just not feeling him as a prospect.  I would take Sony Michel over him as well personally.

He's 5'11 and 220 pounds. That's a big runningback, dude.

 

And I don't agree that he's not great at making people miss. My only gripe with Guice is his indecisiveness behind the LOS. When he makes a decision and plants his foot in the ground and goes, he looks unbelievable. He tries to make the spectacular run all too often and ends up eating bigger losses than he needs to. But I've seen him spin and juke guys out with ease, especially looking at 2016 tape when he was in for Fournette. Is he top 10 elusive? Is he in the same category as Barkley in terms of elusiveness? No, but he's also 5'11 and 220. Not exactly a scat back. He's plenty elusive for a powerful runningback. I'd compare him to a faster Jay Ajayi.

[BleedTheClock]

Oh, and I hate John Kelly. He's the most boring RB prospect in this class. He has no elite trait, looks slow and stiff on film. I wouldn't draft him before the 6th round honestly. There are too many freaks at RB to justify taking a plodder like that so early.

Mark Walton is going to be a starter for someone. I wish he were a little more massful in the lower body, but he's got a similar skill set to that of Alvin Kamara--the RB, not the receiver. Plus Walton has better long speed. Walton runs very hard, breaks tackles, finishes runs with his shoulder, and has great speed and agility. He has a cut up frame, but lacks body mass. He's built like a ripped WR instead of a RB. He's going to run a 4.3-4.4 40 and end up getting taken in the 2nd round methinks.

[Jlash]

54 minutes ago, BleedTheClock said:

He's 5'11 and 220 pounds. That's a big runningback, dude.

But if you're 5'10 220 you're tiny. amirite @IDOG_det

 

Haha. I'm sorry I had to. Don't post any wiki links to things about straws.

[VanS]

2 hours ago, BleedTheClock said:

Probably my favorite RB of all-time (if you count Alstott as a FB).

I thought about making this comparison before, but I think Barkley is more elusive. Taylor was very elusive, but Barkley is a little more so. The comparison makes sense, as I don't know if there are any other better ones to make. I have been searching for one for a while, but Fred Taylor is the closest one. A rich man's Fred Taylor, which is saying something.

 

@VanS I don't really get your Curtis Martin=Rashaad Penny comparison. When I think of explosive, Curtis Martin is not the guy that comes to mind. Martin was a patient runner with great toughness and elite vision. I don't think he was ever a really explosive runner. To be honest, I don't think Penny is all that great. I have him comped as a Tevin Coleman kind of runner. Coleman's a good player, but not worth a 1st round pick.

Side note about Penny: I've seen some crazy wide variations of prospect comparisons for him. I've seen him compared to scat backs, power backs, receiving backs, elite vision backs....the comparisons are all over the place with players that are unlike one another. I've seen him compared to Tevin Coleman (mine), Curtis Martin, Terrell Davis (wut?), Kareem Hunt, and Buck Allen to name a few. These comparisons are bizarrely all over the place IMO.

Go watch some Curtis Martin highlights and Rashaad Penny highlights back to back.  To me they looked very similar in terms of build, running style, and gait.  Plus they have the same height/weight.

I don't compare guys based on equivalent success in the NFL.  I compare guys based on height/weight and the closeness in running/playing styles.  In this case, I'm also high on Rashaad Penny and think he will be a dynamic RB in the NFL.  Maybe not a Hall of Famer like Curtis Martin but a guy who puts up numbers and makes a few pro-bowls.

[jrry32]

7 hours ago, VanS said:

I agree with this sentiment. There are 5 first round RBs IMO:

1. Saquon Barkley (Penn State) - reminds me of Fred Taylor....hopefully he can stay healthy and fulfill his potential

2. Rashaad Penny (San Diego St.) - reminds me Curtis Martin...such an explosive runner

3. Ronald Jones II (USC) - basically a clone of Jamaal Charles

4. John Kelly (Tennessee) - physical tough runner

5. Mark Walton (Miami) - dynamic explosive runner

- I'm working on comps for John Kelly and Mark Walton.  But I feel good about the other 3.

He reminds me of a Vol from many years ago, Travis Henry. He just refuses to go down (note: this is not a joke about Henry's virility).

[VanS]

1 hour ago, BleedTheClock said:

He's 5'11 and 220 pounds. That's a big runningback, dude.

 

And I don't agree that he's not great at making people miss. My only gripe with Guice is his indecisiveness behind the LOS. When he makes a decision and plants his foot in the ground and goes, he looks unbelievable. He tries to make the spectacular run all too often and ends up eating bigger losses than he needs to. But I've seen him spin and juke guys out with ease, especially looking at 2016 tape when he was in for Fournette. Is he top 10 elusive? Is he in the same category as Barkley in terms of elusiveness? No, but he's also 5'11 and 220. Not exactly a scat back. He's plenty elusive for a powerful runningback. I'd compare him to a faster Jay Ajayi.

This is similar to the argument people made last year when it came to Christian McCaffrey and his size.  I questioned whether he could be a feature back because of his size.  I thought he was better served as a satellite back paired with another RB who would run between the tackles.  People who disagreed brought up the fact his height/weight was similar to LeSean McCoy.  I never saw that as a valid comp because McCoy carried his weight differently.  He never looked as small on the field as McCaffrey. 

Guys carry weight differently.  Two players can both be listed at 5'11" 220lbs and they could look totally different from a physical standpoint.  In Guice's case, he looks to me to be top heavy.  His upper body looks thick while his lower body looks skinny.  That is not what you want to see from a RB.  You want your RB to have thick legs so that he can break tackles.  I think this is why Derruis Guice has a tough time breaking tackles.  I don't think he's physically made for it.  This is a deep class of RBs and I would rather spend my capital if I need a RB on other guys who I think are safer bets to be great.

[VanS]

2 minutes ago, jrry32 said:

He reminds me of a Vol from many years ago, Travis Henry. He just refuses to go down (note: this is not a joke about Henry's virility).

I think I found an even better comp.  John Kelly = Priest Holmes

I randomly came upon this Priest Holmes video on YouTube.  Was watching it and shocked by how similar he was to John Kelly.  I checked the height/weight and it matched.  The running styles and gaits are also eerily similar.  I think this might be the closest comp possible for John Kelly.