2018 Draft RB Thread

[goldfishwars]

18 minutes ago, Jlash said:

I see lots of people talk about Michel's big knock being his lack of lateral agility, and how that may limit him being able to make people miss and such. And that's the same knock for Penny. Yet it seems to hurt Penny's stock in the minds of evaluator's much more than with Michel. They look pretty similar in size, so what's the big difference in people's minds? 

@AlNFL19's rankings are similar to what I mean. Limited agility, yet very explosive. But ranked very far apart.

Guessing the difference is the level of competition.

[Jlash]

21 minutes ago, goldfishwars said:

Guessing the difference is the level of competition.

I guess you're right.

But that's like saying Carson Wentz should've been rated way below other QB's with similar skill sets because of his competition. If you're looking at pro projections, you're looking at skills that translate. If two guys have similar translatable skills, and similar flaws you'd project them similarly at the next level, right?

[Danger]

On 2/7/2018 at 8:13 PM, BrownLeader said:

Looks like a 4.5 guy to me on the field.

Taylor ran a 4.42 combine and 4.38 pro day at 229lbs.

Have you watched him play???? Dude is easily 4.4, maybe high 4.3 on the field. His explosiveness is crazy. His acceleration is crazy.

[AlNFL19]

1 hour ago, Jlash said:

I see lots of people talk about Michel's big knock being his lack of lateral agility, and how that may limit him being able to make people miss and such. And that's the same knock for Penny. Yet it seems to hurt Penny's stock in the minds of evaluator's much more than with Michel. They look pretty similar in size, so what's the big difference in people's minds? 

@AlNFL19's rankings are similar to what I mean. Limited agility, yet very explosive. But ranked very far apart.

I think Michel is a better 3-down back who has some lacking agility, whereas Penny will often run through a guy and not make cuts past the first one. I think you have to look at the guys ahead of him - Chubb and Guice are arguably more explosive, while Johnson is one of the draft’s most well-rounded backs. Michel combines those traits better, so he grades out higher. I am a bit low on Penny though. 

[BrownLeader]

3 hours ago, Jlash said:

I see lots of people talk about Michel's big knock being his lack of lateral agility, and how that may limit him being able to make people miss and such. And that's the same knock for Penny. Yet it seems to hurt Penny's stock in the minds of evaluator's much more than with Michel. They look pretty similar in size, so what's the big difference in people's minds? 

@AlNFL19's rankings are similar to what I mean. Limited agility, yet very explosive. But ranked very far apart.

Michel is much more powerful and more elusive. He's also a better receiver.

Michel's lateral movement isn't bad imo. He's got quick feet and changes directions well enough to make guys miss in tight spaces.

Penny can change direction and is sudden enough that he's tough in space but he's not really elusive. He's fast but he's always upright and lacks power.

[goldfishwars]

1 hour ago, Jlash said:

I guess you're right.

But that's like saying Carson Wentz should've been rated way below other QB's with similar skill sets because of his competition. If you're looking at pro projections, you're looking at skills that translate. If two guys have similar translatable skills, and similar flaws you'd project them similarly at the next level, right?

Yeah I agree, but it’s just a bias that’s difficult to overcome. If my guy is real athletic against poor competition, is he really athletic? Or is he just better than these bozos? Wentz kind of had the perfect draft season, jumping through way more hoops than guys at better schools had to. At the end, there was really only ‘level of competition’ thrown at him in terms of flaws.

[BrownLeader]

1 hour ago, Danger said:

Have you watched him play???? Dude is easily 4.4, maybe high 4.3 on the field. His explosiveness is crazy. His acceleration is crazy.

If he gets a crease he can get into the endzone...all that really matters. But as a comp, I don't think he's as fast as Fred Taylor was. And tbh, I'd say he's arguably around the 4th/5th fastest on the field in this class, behind Hines, Jones, Penny and Michel. That said..doesn't really matter. He's fast enough.

[BrownLeader]

11 hours ago, AlNFL19 said:

7. Kerryon Johnson, Auburn ... I love his manipulative strides.

[AlNFL19]

1 hour ago, BrownLeader said:

He isn’t fast and has a weird gait, but on the tape I watched he was able to change his stride lengths to beat defenders in short areas or to generate power. 

[honkeytonk]

Hope Barkley likes Cleveland

[BleedTheClock]

On 2/9/2018 at 10:13 AM, AlNFL19 said:

I think Michel is a better 3-down back who has some lacking agility, whereas Penny will often run through a guy and not make cuts past the first one. I think you have to look at the guys ahead of him - Chubb and Guice are arguably more explosive, while Johnson is one of the draft’s most well-rounded backs. Michel combines those traits better, so he grades out higher. I am a bit low on Penny though. 

I don't like Rashaad Penny. He's pretty fast, but also runs upright and has zero wiggle. Michel is not an elite eluder, but he's not terrible like some are apparently making a narrative. He's plenty agile enough to make a jump cut and accelerate through the hole. Georgia is an I-Formation team that asks their runners to get downhill in a hurry. One cut & go backs. Zone teams are going to ask the RB to make a jump cut at the LOS and have a little more wiggle in their hips. Michel got downhill in a hurry because his OL was opening crater-like holes in the front 7. I don't need my RB to be cutting all over the place if he understands when to bury his head and go. Michel is a more consistently violent runner with more long speed and better vision. He has a little more wiggle, but neither is elusive enough to be considered a scat back.

I also think agility is a little overrated. If you're exceptionally agile it's going to pay off, but being pretty agile doesn't really do anything for me. Saquon Barkley is exceptionally agile. He'll make a significant amount of people miss in the NFL. Royce Freeman is pretty damn agile, but he's not going to make a significant amount of people in the NFL miss. I feel like there's a threshold to where agility becomes a part of your game and most RB prospects aren't going to be ahead of that threshold...at least ones that have the ability to be an every down RB.

 

 

-----------------------------------Tier #1 (Elite HOF caliber talents):

1. Saquon Barkley (Has it all. Size, speed, elite agility, hands, vision, production.)

-----------------------------------Tier #2 (Pro Bowl talent):

2. Derrius Guice (Almost tier 1, but he needs to be more consistently violent. Dances when a hole doesn't open up.)

3. Nick Chubb (Love how violent he runs. He gets downhill quickly and plows over dudes. No wasted yardage with Chubb on the field. Meh athlete.)

4. Mark Walton (Excellent athlete that can hit homeruns. Great hands. Not the largest dude in the world, but runs through people. Violent for a speed back.)

-----------------------------------Tier #3 (Above average NFL starter):

5. Sony Michel (A darn good runner that maximizes the blocking in front of him. A skilled receiver. Pretty violent for a smaller back, not unlike Walton. Just not as fast.)

6. Ronald Jones (Elite acceleration through the hole. Doesn't run with power and is brought down by pipsqueaks. He's not afraid, but he just can't shake tacklers.)

-----------------------------------Tier #4 (Good rotational RB's):

7. Akrum Wadley (Elusive for days. Excellent between the tackles runner despite his size. Knows how to churn and twist through small creases. Tough as nails.)

8. Kerryon Johnson (Has great vision and toughness as a runner. He'd be much higher if he had any real elusiveness or speed. Stiff athlete.)

9. Royce Freeman (Big back that plays soft. Has good hands and patience as a runner. Mediocre long speed. Great elusiveness for a big man, but the "big man" label doesn't translate.)

10. Kalen Ballage (Great frame and athletic traits. Fast. Great hands. Great size. Lacks vision, short burst, and consistent violence in the phone booth. Great potential though.)

HM: Bo Scarbrough (Has a niche in the NFL as the big bully RB. He'll find himself in a rotation, but he takes forever to build his speed. If he gets to the 2nd level clean, he's nightmarish.)

 

 

I don't think this RB class is as spectacular as others. I think it's certainly a good class, but I'm a little cautious to call it one of the all-time best RB classes like others have stated. That's cray cray talk to me.

[BrownLeader]

6 hours ago, BleedTheClock said:

8. Kerryon Johnson (Has great vision and toughness as a runner. He'd be much higher if he had any real elusiveness or speed. Stiff athlete.)

 

[BleedTheClock]

2 hours ago, BrownLeader said:

 

??? Neither of those clips put to rest my concerns with his speed or agility. That's a nice run early on, but he's not going to make people miss in the NFL and he's most certainly not going to run past anyone. He's not a very good NFL prospect. I like runners that sell out like he routinely does, but he isn't athletic enough.

[jrry32]

Phillip Lindsay won't be a special player, but he's going to stick in the NFL as a role player. His pass protection skills are incredibly impressive for a back his age.

[BrownLeader]

16 hours ago, BleedTheClock said:

??? Neither of those clips put to rest my concerns with his speed or agility. That's a nice run early on, but he's not going to make people miss in the NFL and he's most certainly not going to run past anyone. He's not a very good NFL prospect. I like runners that sell out like he routinely does, but he isn't athletic enough.

Well....he's not fast or especially agile. 

But he's got light, quick feet, can shift gears really well, change direction quickly and always runs with leverage. 

That's Beckwith he's eluding in the hole in that first gif. He makes guys miss all the time because he's got quick feet, strength and burst. Not always a clear whiff but he's slippery.

He's a good RB prospect because he's got elite vision, is a good blocker, good receiver and runs with violence. Pound for pound he's the most physical RB in this class and was the best SEC RB down the stetch. The potential knocks are his durability and just how good his burst really is. He's like a less durable version of Bills RB Fred Jackson.