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furti

Jay Train's fantasy value

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I am wondering whether to buy into Ajayi as a workhorse RB this year in fantasy or not. One side of me thinks we are going to witness the same rotation as in every year in the post Shady era. My other part thinks, after three complete season there is going to be a rusher with 200+ attempts. 

The below figures show how much the nr 1 RB ran the ball in the last three season and their share compared to the total rushes (all players included). Btw, this is going to be the 5th consecutive year where the leading rusher for the Eagles is a different player. Last time it happened was between 1983-1987 (Oliver - Montgomery - Jackson - Byars - Cunningham)

2015: DeMarco Murray 193 rushes (44%)

2016: Ryan Mathews 155 (35%) - missed three games

2017: LeGarrette Blount 173 (37%)

2018 (AVG of 3 years): Jay Ajayi 174 (39%). 

Deuce already told Jay was going to be the featured back, but we all know this is not going to be a one man show. There is lot of talk he walks at the end of the season (I hope that is not the case), and him hiring Rosenhaus does not seem like improving his chances to remain. Let's assume they let him walk, isn't the wise move to hand him the ball as many times as possible, as a) you do not have to be "afraid" about his longer term health, and b) with better stats he would possibly net a better contract somewhere else thus most probably a better compensatory pick next year. 

Any chance Ajayi cracks the 200 mark? Do you see him havin 1,000 yards? 

 

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Honestly, I'm buying late round/flier stock in Clement before im spending the kind of pick it'll take to get Ajayi

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I am not sure about that. He is a decent pass catcher and he was involved in the passing game last year. He is definitely going to be a first and second down player, but he will have his catches. Overall the RBs will be more involved in the passing game in my view.

 

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The Eagles backfield was a no-go zone in terms of fantasy last year. Why do we think things will be different this year? Logic says we'll have another deep rotation. It's a big risk spending a draft pick on any of them in fantasy, unless it's late in the draft.

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Posted (edited)

Drafting any Eagles RB is like Drafting a Patriot. Hard to tell which one will go off that particular week. 

With Sproles coming back, Ajayi is losing receiving touches. With the way Clement looked towards the end if the season, Ajayi is losing touches.

If he drops, sure but like Pete said not as a Early first 5-6 Rd type pick. After that depends on the board IMO.

I am actually hopeful he gets force feed until his leg falls off. There is potential upside though.

Edited by Nabbs4u

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After Sproles gets hurt, Clement will be a legit fantasy RB. Jay's going to be one of the TD-reliant fantasy backs.

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Jay for north and south with Clement and Sproles acting as HB/receiving threat. Sounds good to me. 

That's it for now. 

Mastercheddaar

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Posted (edited)

Look Ajayi will be the best of the bunch by seasons end IMO but it's once again like picking a Patriots RB. Never know from week to week which one of the 3-4 will be featured.

Edited by Nabbs4u

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So you guys think his current adp is overrated? Around 40ish-50ish? I think he has a very good chance for at least 1000 scrimmage yards and lord knows how many tds. I mean that is what you can realistically expect from a guy like Fitz as well, but still he is ranked way higher. I have faith in Ajayi.

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Agree with everyone else, it's going to be a RBCC again. If he stays healthy all year I could see him hitting 200 carries, 1000 YFS, 8 TDs, but that's going to be scattered. We'll ride with the hot hand. Ajayi will probably have the type of fantasy season where he has a 20 pt game followed by a 4 pt game, rinse and repeat.

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I'm going after Clement pretty aggressively in my dynasty league. If he has a big year, he is the only Eagles RB under contract after this year.

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Posted (edited)

If it's standard scoring,  ajayi might be an rb3. If it's ppr, clement might be an rb3. I wouldn't plan on using our rbs as anything more than a bye week play or injury replacement if an rb1 or rb2 gets hurt.

You never know though.  We throw a lot on 1st and 2nd down. Maybe teams blanket ertz more and our rbs get thrown to instead. 

Edited by Jeezla

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If Josh Adams doesn't need foot surgery he and Clement will eat into Ajayi's snaps. Add Sproles on 3rd down...

 

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1 hour ago, nlesthought said:

If Josh Adams doesn't need foot surgery he and Clement will eat into Ajayi's snaps. Add Sproles on 3rd down...

 

Hard for Josh Adams to cut into snaps when he won't even make this team

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