2019 Draft Discussion

[CWood21]

6 hours ago, pacman5252 said:

I was listening to the Locked on Draft podcast yesterday and they went over the top 10 players at each position. One thing I though was interesting was how they tiered their edge players. They have it is as 1 Bosa, then Polite/Burns/Allen all as 2a/b/c (Burns highest floor, Polite best now with character concerns, Allen more potential but needs the most work). There might be a little internet group thought/eye of beholder come draft time.

I'd argue that's part of the appeal of this year's EDGE class.  If you want more of a twitchy pass rusher, you've got Jachai Polite and Brian Burns.  If you're looking for more of a stouter pass rusher, you've got Montez Sweat and Clelin Ferrell.  It's just more of a pick a type of pass rusher you prefer.  Last year's EDGE class seemed to be a bit short on the twitchy prospects with really only Harold Landry as the only guy I thought was in the twitchy mold.  2017 was pretty similar as well.  Seemed a bit heavier on the stouter EDGE.

[snackattack]

1 hour ago, CWood21 said:

Even if you don't take positional value into account, do you truly think there are only 5 players who are better than Jacobs?  I sure as hell don't.  I'm not even sure he's a Day 1 prospect.

Not necessarily disagreeing with you on how dj ranked jacobs. Was just commenting on “a running back” being that high

[snackattack]

 

1 hour ago, CWood21 said:

Your rankings should take into positional value into account.  You have the best punter come out in NFL history, are you immediately going to slap a first round grade on him?  No.  That's taking positional value into context.  There's also the much more broad statement with regards to positional value when it comes to selection.  If you're on the clock and you have an EDGE and a RB with similar values and needs are relatively the same, EDGE is more valuable because there's a shortage of quality pass rushers in a given draft.

I had first round grades on janikowski and ray guy personally. Kidding, but do kickers and punters even get graded the same way as the other players?

edit- pretty sure they dont get graded the same way.  Tried researching a few articles on how players are graded and most i saw ranked them based on their physical attributes, ability to create mismatches, win 1v1, whether a starter or situational player. None of these apply to kickers or punters so im standing by my original point

[Arthur Penske]

11 hours ago, CWood21 said:

I'd make the argument that Adrian Peterson was the last player drafted in that tier.  That was a really big blue chip tier, and he was the last one drafted.

In 2007? Revis and Patrick Willis for sure.  Weddle and Lynch turned out to be.

[CWood21]

7 minutes ago, Arthur Penske said:

In 2007? Revis and Patrick Willis for sure.  Weddle and Lynch turned out to be.

In hindsight yes.  But at the time, Adrian Peterson was the last in that elite tier.  That was probably my strongest draft at the top that I've seen.  Had 6 guys I thought you could seriously call blue chip prospects.

[Arthur Penske]

Just now, CWood21 said:

In hindsight yes.  But at the time, Adrian Peterson was the last in that elite tier.  That was probably my strongest draft at the top that I've seen.  Had 6 guys I thought you could seriously call blue chip prospects.

I'd  disagree with that. Everyone absolutely Loved Willis going into that draft. I remember seeing  him in the top 5 frequently.

[vegas492]

I have a lot of love for Devin White, ILB, LSU.  Read a lot about him.  Watched some highlights and my God that kid is a missile.  Watched some regular film....came away less impressed.  Going in, I thought White was a heavier version of Roquan Smith.  But Smith has awareness that White can't touch.  White looks slow to diagnose.  Feet stop moving when he doesn't know where the play is.  Takes some questionable angles.

I came away feeling like Roquan was a much better player.  And I'm now "soured" on White at #12.

I watched some Mack Wilson stuff.  I think he's better than White in many regards.  Much better feel for the passing game.  Better feet.  Better instincts.  Not quite as big, doesn't hit as hard, but he's much more assignment sure.  If Wilson is sitting there at #30, well, label me interested.

[Shanedorf]

I've mentioned this before but GB is heading into the 2019 draft with more draft capital than they've had in a very long time. And more draft capital than they are likely to have for a very long time. See link below ( about 2735 points vs about 1300 points in a "normal" Packer year)

https://www.drafttek.com/NFL-Trade-Value-Chart.asp?RequestTeam=gb

Given that, which, if any, players would have to be there at pick 4 or 5 to pull the trigger and move up ?

12 + 30 and maybe a sweetener of either another player, a late pick, a future pick gets GB into that range. We've often talked about the exorbitant cost of moving up in round 1 and how it just doesn't make sense. Does that mean "never" ? There are no circumstances that would ever allow for it ?

GB would still have a full slate of selections at # 12 in every round, so the exorbitant cost doesn't destroy the rest of the draft the way it would in other years

So 2019 is sorta of a test case of the oft-repeated mantra. Is moving way up in round 1 an inviolable rule ?
I'm not advocating for or against it, I'm merely looking at the unique circumstances of 2019 and wondering what the large-brained posters at FF think
And if your answer is "yes" or  "maybe" , which select few players would need to be available to make it a serious consideration ? ( Bosa is gone)

[vegas492]

I've thought about that, too, Shanedorf.  The issue with getting Khalil Mack was the picks and the compensation.  What if we could move that two picks, grab the player, and not have to pay the high salary?  For me?  That's Bosa or Josh Allen.  And that is about it.  Much love here for Q Williams, but for me, it is all about the EDGE and getting a game wrecker.

I'd also give up a 4'th to move up a spot or two to secure Ferrell.

[squire12]

5 minutes ago, vegas492 said:

I've thought about that, too, Shanedorf.  The issue with getting Khalil Mack was the picks and the compensation.  What if we could move that two picks, grab the player, and not have to pay the high salary?  For me?  That's Bosa or Josh Allen.  And that is about it.  Much love here for Q Williams, but for me, it is all about the EDGE and getting a game wrecker.

I'd also give up a 4'th to move up a spot or two to secure Ferrell.

Pretty hard to move up for a non- QB and giving up that type of draft capital.    Mack was a known entity, All Pro level player that was going to cost a huge salary.  The draft picks are cheap, but very far from being a known entity All Pro.  If GB was 1 player away, I could consider a big move up more seriously, but there are a lot of holes and moving up lessens the options to potentially fill those holes.

[vegas492]

14 minutes ago, squire12 said:

Pretty hard to move up for a non- QB and giving up that type of draft capital.    Mack was a known entity, All Pro level player that was going to cost a huge salary.  The draft picks are cheap, but very far from being a known entity All Pro.  If GB was 1 player away, I could consider a big move up more seriously, but there are a lot of holes and moving up lessens the options to potentially fill those holes.

Holes for sure.

Allen is a really nice EDGE piece, though.  He's the one I'd do the deal for.  No one else.  GB would still have all their other picks to fill holes.  And they would have a kid with some tremendous upside and ability on the EDGE.

[AlexGreen#20]

14 hours ago, snackattack said:

 

I had first round grades on janikowski and ray guy personally. Kidding, but do kickers and punters even get graded the same way as the other players?

edit- pretty sure they dont get graded the same way.  Tried researching a few articles on how players are graded and most i saw ranked them based on their physical attributes, ability to create mismatches, win 1v1, whether a starter or situational player. None of these apply to kickers or punters so im standing by my original point

Typically what happens is Blesto sends out their specialist list rankings. And then the ST coach goes through that list and makes any adjustments to it. Those guys are then slotted in between tiers basically. 

If you end up at a tier break with your pick, you let your scouts pound the table for their guy, including the ST coach and cap guy.

The GM then makes the decision based on his own evaluation of the team needs. 

 

Is at least my understanding of the situation.

[CWood21]

1 hour ago, Shanedorf said:

Given that, which, if any, players would have to be there at pick 4 or 5 to pull the trigger and move up ?

None.  Bosa is the only one you'd consider moving up for, but it's generally unwise to move up.

[rcon14]

Just now, CWood21 said:

None.  Bosa is the only one you'd consider moving up for, but it's generally unwise to move up.

This is where I'm at as well. Enjoy the draft capital we have this year, don't burn it all to move up.

[CWood21]

Just now, rcon14 said:

This is where I'm at as well. Enjoy the draft capital we have this year, don't burn it all to move up.

I'm kinda interested in wheeling and dealing.  Move down from 12 to the late teens (16-29), pick up a 3rd and then move up from our 2nd round pick with a 4th round pick.  3 picks inside the top 36 is pretty appealing to me.  Just kinda depends on how the board breaks down.