Week 5 GDT - Green Bay (2-1-1) @ Detroit (1-3)

[SSG]

29 minutes ago, Ragnar Danneskjold said:

I don't think he is valued highly enough to be criminally over rated.  From what I have read in this thread, the argument over Jones not getting the majority of the carries stems from two knee injuries last year, a training camp injury this year, and whatever he injured Sunday that lead people to question if he has the durability to play that many downs.  How many carries Jones gets has nothing to do with Williams.  Besides, it wasn't Williams fault that Jones was suspended two games and thus not available.  

Williams is an acceptable rotational back.   Not sure where all the venom about him comes from.  

There is no venom, I just want the best players on the field.  Almost half of Williams carries this year have been for LESS THAN 3 yards.  In comparison, 43% of Jone's carries over his career have gone for 5 or more yards which is the best rate in the league over that span.  Despite this, Williams is our starter and Jones isn't seeing the field until the second quarter.  That's my issue.  I don't think its a coincident that Williams has started every game and we've started every game with a punt on our first offensive possession (We scored points on the first series Jones seen the field against Washington and a TD against Buffalo on his first series).

I've seen very little mentioned about Jone's injuries (which IMO are a little overblown) and more so Williams pass pro.  

Edited October 3, 2018 by SSG

[Ragnar Danneskjold]

2 minutes ago, SSG said:

There is no venom, I just want the best players on the field.  Almost half of Williams carries this year have been for LESS THAN 3 yards.  Despite this, he's our starter and Jones isn't seeing the field until the second quarter.  That's my issue.  I don't think its a coincident that Williams has started every game and we've started every game with a punt on our first offensive possession (We scored points on the first series Jones seen the field against Washington and a TD against Buffalo on his first series).

I've seen very little mentioned about Jone's injuries (which IMO are a little overblown) and more so Williams pass pro.  

I could be wrong, but I would guess that half of Jones have been for less than three as well.  Those plays are typically due to breakdowns in run blocking.

Seems to me the difference has been Jones is better when he gets to the second level and can make guys miss.

Watch the play where Jones gets shaken up on Sunday- it is the play following his last carry.  Look at the blocking technique- it is what caused him to have to leave the field.  He still has work to do to be a complete back.  He has to get to the point where he can block without hurting himself before the team can successfully game plan around him.

[squire12]

4 minutes ago, Ragnar Danneskjold said:

I could be wrong, but I would guess that half of Jones have been for less than three as well.  Those plays are typically due to breakdowns in run blocking.

Seems to me the difference has been Jones is better when he gets to the second level and can make guys miss.

Watch the play where Jones gets shaken up on Sunday- it is the play following his last carry.  Look at the blocking technique- it is what caused him to have to leave the field.  He still has work to do to be a complete back.  He has to get to the point where he can block without hurting himself before the team can successfully game plan around him.

Jones:  5/17 have been for less than 3 yards.  

Date	Tm	Opp	Quarter	Time	Down	ToGo	Location	Score	Detail	Yds	EPB	EPA	Diff
2018-09-30	Packers	Bills	1	0:38	1	10	GNB 31	6-0	Aaron Jones left end for 30 yards (tackle by Rafael Bush)	30	1.000	2.980	1.98
2018-09-23	Packers	Redskins	3	5:33	1	10	GNB 32	17-28	Aaron Jones middle for 17 yards (tackle by Montae Nicholson)	17	1.070	2.190	1.12
2018-09-30	Packers	Bills	3	14:59	1	10	GNB 25	16-0	Aaron Jones right tackle for 11 yards (tackle by Jordan Poyer)	11	0.610	1.330	.72
2018-09-23	Packers	Redskins	1	0:52	1	10	WAS 38	0-14	Aaron Jones right end for 10 yards (tackle by Mason Foster)	10	3.050	3.710	.66
2018-09-30	Packers	Bills	4	9:11	2	10	GNB 19	19-0	Aaron Jones middle for 9 yards (tackle by TreDavious White)	9	-0.390	0.100	.49
2018-09-23	Packers	Redskins	1	0:11	1	10	WAS 28	0-14	Aaron Jones right end for 8 yards (tackle by Da'Ron Payne and Montae Nicholson)	8	3.710	4.250	.54
2018-09-30	Packers	Bills	2	9:21	1	10	GNB 43	13-0	Aaron Jones right guard for 6 yards (tackle by Ryan Lewis and Matt Milano)	6	1.800	2.060	.26
2018-09-30	Packers	Bills	4	14:45	2	10	GNB 33	19-0	Aaron Jones middle for 4 yards (tackle by Rafael Bush and Lorenzo Alexander)	4	0.590	0.430	-0.16
2018-09-23	Packers	Redskins	2	3:43	2	4	GNB 30	3-21	Aaron Jones middle for 3 yards (tackle by Da'Ron Payne)	3	0.810	0.500	-0.31
2018-09-23	Packers	Redskins	2	3:01	3	1	GNB 33	3-21	Aaron Jones left end for 3 yards (tackle by Preston Smith)	3	0.500	1.330	.83
2018-09-30	Packers	Bills	2	14:25	3	1	BUF 30	6-0	Aaron Jones right guard for 3 yards (tackle by Taron Johnson and Trent Murphy)	3	2.940	3.780	.84
2018-09-30	Packers	Bills	2	11:09	1	3	BUF 3	12-0	Aaron Jones left tackle for 3 yards, touchdown	3	6.510	7.000	.49
2018-09-30	Packers	Bills	3	11:54	1	10	BUF 20	16-0	Aaron Jones middle for 2 yards (tackle by Nate Orchard)	2	4.240	3.960	-0.28
2018-09-23	Packers	Redskins	3	5:02	1	10	GNB 49	17-28	Aaron Jones left guard for 1 yard (tackle by Montae Nicholson and Mason Foster)	1	2.190	1.780	-0.41
2018-09-30	Packers	Bills	4	12:38	2	6	BUF 46	19-0	Aaron Jones right end for no gain (tackle by Jordan Poyer)	0	2.250	1.550	-0.70
2018-09-30	Packers	Bills	4	9:51	1	10	GNB 19	19-0	Aaron Jones right end for no gain (tackle by Eddie Yarbrough and Trent Murphy)	0	0.150	-0.390	-0.54
2018-09-30	Packers	Bills	2	13:47	1	10	BUF 27	6-0	Aaron Jones right end for -3 yards (tackle by Jerry Hughes)	-3	3.780	2.830	-0.95

[Ragnar Danneskjold]

4 minutes ago, squire12 said:

Jones:  5/17 have been for less than 3 yards.  

Date	Tm	Opp	Quarter	Time	Down	ToGo	Location	Score	Detail	Yds	EPB	EPA	Diff
2018-09-30	Packers	Bills	1	0:38	1	10	GNB 31	6-0	Aaron Jones left end for 30 yards (tackle by Rafael Bush)	30	1.000	2.980	1.98
2018-09-23	Packers	Redskins	3	5:33	1	10	GNB 32	17-28	Aaron Jones middle for 17 yards (tackle by Montae Nicholson)	17	1.070	2.190	1.12
2018-09-30	Packers	Bills	3	14:59	1	10	GNB 25	16-0	Aaron Jones right tackle for 11 yards (tackle by Jordan Poyer)	11	0.610	1.330	.72
2018-09-23	Packers	Redskins	1	0:52	1	10	WAS 38	0-14	Aaron Jones right end for 10 yards (tackle by Mason Foster)	10	3.050	3.710	.66
2018-09-30	Packers	Bills	4	9:11	2	10	GNB 19	19-0	Aaron Jones middle for 9 yards (tackle by TreDavious White)	9	-0.390	0.100	.49
2018-09-23	Packers	Redskins	1	0:11	1	10	WAS 28	0-14	Aaron Jones right end for 8 yards (tackle by Da'Ron Payne and Montae Nicholson)	8	3.710	4.250	.54
2018-09-30	Packers	Bills	2	9:21	1	10	GNB 43	13-0	Aaron Jones right guard for 6 yards (tackle by Ryan Lewis and Matt Milano)	6	1.800	2.060	.26
2018-09-30	Packers	Bills	4	14:45	2	10	GNB 33	19-0	Aaron Jones middle for 4 yards (tackle by Rafael Bush and Lorenzo Alexander)	4	0.590	0.430	-0.16
2018-09-23	Packers	Redskins	2	3:43	2	4	GNB 30	3-21	Aaron Jones middle for 3 yards (tackle by Da'Ron Payne)	3	0.810	0.500	-0.31
2018-09-23	Packers	Redskins	2	3:01	3	1	GNB 33	3-21	Aaron Jones left end for 3 yards (tackle by Preston Smith)	3	0.500	1.330	.83
2018-09-30	Packers	Bills	2	14:25	3	1	BUF 30	6-0	Aaron Jones right guard for 3 yards (tackle by Taron Johnson and Trent Murphy)	3	2.940	3.780	.84
2018-09-30	Packers	Bills	2	11:09	1	3	BUF 3	12-0	Aaron Jones left tackle for 3 yards, touchdown	3	6.510	7.000	.49
2018-09-30	Packers	Bills	3	11:54	1	10	BUF 20	16-0	Aaron Jones middle for 2 yards (tackle by Nate Orchard)	2	4.240	3.960	-0.28
2018-09-23	Packers	Redskins	3	5:02	1	10	GNB 49	17-28	Aaron Jones left guard for 1 yard (tackle by Montae Nicholson and Mason Foster)	1	2.190	1.780	-0.41
2018-09-30	Packers	Bills	4	12:38	2	6	BUF 46	19-0	Aaron Jones right end for no gain (tackle by Jordan Poyer)	0	2.250	1.550	-0.70
2018-09-30	Packers	Bills	4	9:51	1	10	GNB 19	19-0	Aaron Jones right end for no gain (tackle by Eddie Yarbrough and Trent Murphy)	0	0.150	-0.390	-0.54
2018-09-30	Packers	Bills	2	13:47	1	10	BUF 27	6-0	Aaron Jones right end for -3 yards (tackle by Jerry Hughes)	-3	3.780	2.830	-0.95

do you have that data for williams too?

 

[AlexGreen#20]

18 minutes ago, SSG said:

There is no venom, I just want the best players on the field.  Almost half of Williams carries this year have been for LESS THAN 3 yards.  In comparison, 43% of Jone's carries over his career have gone for 5 or more yards which is the best rate in the league over that span.  Despite this, Williams is our starter and Jones isn't seeing the field until the second quarter.  That's my issue.  I don't think its a coincident that Williams has started every game and we've started every game with a punt on our first offensive possession (We scored points on the first series Jones seen the field against Washington and a TD against Buffalo on his first series).

I've seen very little mentioned about Jone's injuries (which IMO are a little overblown) and more so Williams pass pro.  

You're going to see that when one guy is taking the bulk of the short yardage carries. 

Nobody is disputing that Jones is a better pure runner than Williams, what does need to be disputed is that Williams is a complete scrub running the ball. He's not great, but he's not John Kuhn. 

[Ragnar Danneskjold]

Not to put too fine a point on it, 9 of 17 were fro 3 or less for Jones.  

[AlexGreen#20]

1 minute ago, Ragnar Danneskjold said:

Not to put too fine a point on it, 9 of 17 were fro 3 or less for Jones.  

And all 8 of the ones that weren't are from "1st/2nd and 10 situations"

[Ragnar Danneskjold]

2 minutes ago, AlexGreen#20 said:

And all 8 of the ones that weren't are from "1st/2nd and 10 situations"

What is the source for that table?  That is really useful stuff!

[SSG]

11 minutes ago, Ragnar Danneskjold said:

I could be wrong, but I would guess that half of Jones have been for less than three as well.  Those plays are typically due to breakdowns in run blocking.

Seems to me the difference has been Jones is better when he gets to the second level and can make guys miss.

Watch the play where Jones gets shaken up on Sunday- it is the play following his last carry.  Look at the blocking technique- it is what caused him to have to leave the field.  He still has work to do to be a complete back.  He has to get to the point where he can block without hurting himself before the team can successfully game plan around him.

Seen on Twitter that 43% of Jone's carries have went for 5 or more yards since last year which is the highest rate in the NFL over that span.  Jones is more explosive, has better vision and is able to make players miss.  

[AlexGreen#20]

2 minutes ago, Ragnar Danneskjold said:

What is the source for that table?  That is really useful stuff!

Pro Football Reference

[Ragnar Danneskjold]

Just now, SSG said:

Seen on Twitter that 43% of Jone's carries have went for 5 or more yards since last year which is the highest rate in the NFL over that span.  Jones is more explosive, has better vision and is able to make players miss.  

But again, no one argues that fact.

You don't think the availability issue is real, others don't agree.  We will see how this all plays out.  I hope he stays healthy, but I have my concerns given what I have seen.

[SSG]

8 minutes ago, Ragnar Danneskjold said:

Not to put too fine a point on it, 9 of 17 were fro 3 or less for Jones.  

Just pointing pointing out that I said LESS than 3 yards. So almost half his carries have gone for 2 or fewer yards which is pretty miserable production even if he is a "short yardage back".

[AlexGreen#20]

1 minute ago, SSG said:

Seen on Twitter that 43% of Jone's carries have went for 5 or more yards since last year which is the highest rate in the NFL over that span.  Jones is more explosive, has better vision and is able to make players miss.  

Nobody is debating any of that. 

However:

He's not as effective as a pass blocker as Williams

He's not as effective as a short yardage back as Williams

He's not as effective as a pass catcher as Montgomery.

If you want to be able to use any of those specialties without tipping the play and reducing their effectiveness, those other backs also need carries. Additionally, do you really want to run Jones into the ground with 300 carries in a season? Get him a solid 200 carry and try and spare him the abuse. 

[SSG]

1 minute ago, Ragnar Danneskjold said:

But again, no one argues that fact.

You don't think the availability issue is real, others don't agree.  We will see how this all plays out.  I hope he stays healthy, but I have my concerns given what I have seen.

Availability for Jones is no more of an issue than availablity for Rodgers.  Injuries happen, I don't think you keep your best player off the field because you are scared he might get hurt.  

[AlexGreen#20]

Just now, SSG said:

Just pointing pointing out that I said LESS than 3 yards. So almost half his carries have gone for 2 or fewer yards which is pretty miserable production even if he is a "short yardage back".

We're also sitting with the 12th best "Power" success rate per Football Outsiders with Williams carrying almost all of those reps

Defined as: 

• Power Success: Percentage of runs on third or fourth down, two yards or less to go, that achieved a first down or touchdown. Also includes runs on first-and-goal or second-and-goal from the two-yard line or closer. This is the only statistic on this page that includes quarterbacks.