Game Day Thread: week 5 Broncos at Jets

[Broncofan]

15 minutes ago, AKRNA said:

I don't think our team is good enough right now to draft a QB high. There's a school of thought that believes you have to have a good enough team around a rookie QB that you can contend for a championship during his rookie deal. The amount of money required to re-sign top shelf QB talent saps your funds too much to put together a supporting roster after that point.

 

12 minutes ago, germ-x said:

Yeah, but you can’t go into it thinking like that.  If you think you have a franchise QB you take him and worry about the rest later.  

For sure you don't spend a top pick on a QB if he's not a franchise QB.  But, if he's a franchise QB it's an absolute no-brainer to take the shot, if you don't have one already.   The ability to field a better team is so much better when you have a rookie-deal QB - the savings are just unreal (look at what a journeyman QB costs, as a contrast).   And that bargain lasts up to 5 full years, with the 5th year option.  The price is that year 1 is almost for certain a throwaway  year - but that's exactly why it was a no-brainer to take Josh Rosen at 1.5 this year.   The problem was taking that shot meant basically saying 2018 was a throwaway - and that's exactly where Elway failed.   His myopia in thinking that we could somehow contend in 2018 led to the disaster choice of Keenum over rookie QB when Cousins chose MIN (which while Cousins would have been a huge upgrade, at 28M+, no way we could be good enough - which is why going rookie QB was the no-brainer call with Darnold/Rosen there in reach).

2018 wasn't even close to a year for contention, but a good year to develop a rookie QB.   Doing that would have also allowed us to not spend on win-now guys, either.  Hindsight is obviously 20-20, but that's been the call most who've realized how bad our roster really is, have been calling for.  I get Elway's not built to think that way - but that's also why we're in this 3-year purgatory, and by the looks of it, probably 4.   Better Elway just realizes this is going to take more than 1 offseason to fix now (better if he realized it last year and didn't throw away 36M/2 on Keenum, but that's a sunk cost now).

There's no coincidence that if you get a franchise QB in a rookie deal, suddenly contention is that much easier.   The key though is that the QB should be the real deal.   Lynch wasn't.   IMO there were 2 no-brainers, although many said Mayfield was as well.  The killer part is we passed on it.    The danger will be if Elway reaches for a QB who's not a franchise guy in Rd1 - we've seen that before.   It's just truly unfortunate that the true franchise guy was there at 1.5, and Elway thought Keenum was able to afford us the ability to pass - and at 36M/2 years, to boot.    

As for 2019, it's hard to say.   Really, there's only 1 guy I feel safe calling him franchise-level - Justin Herbert.  I don't see anyone else with that certainty.  That means it will cost a mint to get him.   I hate to say it, but even though few teams need QB as much, there are enough that the price will be SKY-high to get him.   So we're left once again in the 2018 position where we almost wish for a premium pick - or pray Kelly has real hope.  

I agree 100 percent if a franchise-level guy is there, you take him.   It makes team building so much easier.  But it's not worth reaching for the wrong guy out of need, either.   The sad part was 2018 was absolutely that year to go franchise-QB hunting in Rd1...but hey, Case Keenum was gritty, a leader, and a winner where we didn't need to think long-term, right?   SMH...so awful.   Man.

[germ-x]

1 minute ago, Broncofan said:

 

You don't spend a top pick on a QB if he's not a franchise QB.  If he's a franchise QB it's an absolute no-brainer.   The ability to field a better team is so much better when you have a rookie-deal QB.   And that lasts up to 5 full years.  The price is that year 1 is almost for certain a throwaway  year - but that's exactly why it was a no-brainer to take Josh Rosen at 1.5 this year.   2018 wasn't even close to a year for contention, but a good year to develop a rookie QB.   Doing that would have also allowed us to not spend on win-now guys, either.  Hindsight is obviously 20-20, but that's been the call most who've realized how bad our roster really is, have been calling for.  I get Elway's not built to think that way - but that's also why we're in this 3-year purgatory, and by the looks of it, probably 4.   Better Elway just realizes this is going to take more than 1 offseason to fix now (better if he realized it last year and didn't throw away 36M/2 on Keenum, but that's a sunk cost now).

There's no coincidence that if you get a franchise QB in a rookie deal, suddenly contention is that much easier.   The key though is that the QB should be the real deal.   Lynch wasn't.   IMO there were 2 no-brainers, although many said Mayfield was as well.  The killer part is we passed on it.    The danger will be if Elway reaches for a QB who's not a franchise guy in Rd1 - we've seen that before.   It's just truly unfortunate that the true franchise guy was there at 1.5, and Elway thought Keenum was able to afford us the ability to pass - and at 36M/2 years, to boot.    

As for 2019, it's hard to say.   Really, there's only 1 guy I feel safe calling him franchise-level - Justin Herbert.  I don't see anyone else with that certainty.  That means it will cost a mint to get him.   I hate to say it, but even though few teams need QB as much, there are enough that the price will be SKY-high to get him.   So we're left once again in the 2018 position where we almost wish for a premium pick - or pray Kelly has real hope.  

I agree 100 percent if a franchise-level guy is there, you take him.   It makes team building so much easier.  But it's not worth reaching for the wrong guy out of need, either.   The sad part was 2018 was absolutely that year to go franchise-QB hunting in Rd1...but hey, Case Keenum was gritty, a leader, and a winner where we didn't need to think long-term, right?   SMH...so awful.   Man.

I wasn’t a Rosen fan, so I disagree with the thought we should’ve taken him, but fully understand your point.

[Broncofan]

3 minutes ago, germ-x said:

I wasn’t a Rosen fan, so I disagree with the thought we should’ve taken him, but fully understand your point.

I honestly think as long as he isn't hurt - Rosen is as safe as they come for franchise level rookie QB's.   And the thing is, the rules are so ridiculously weighed to protect QB's, the risk is mitigated big-time with QB's for injury.   He's the most natural thrower, and the most intelligent guy at reading D's (Darnold's the most gifted in QB-specific skills and youth , Mayfield's the most refined but with limited tools, and Allen's got the generational Favre-arm, and great physical skills, but so raw, Lamar Jackson better throwing but almost as raw as Allen in QB brain skills).  

It's a moot point, but man, if Josh Allen or Josh Rosen are franchise QB's (or worse, both)....and Kelly isn't the guy...man.   Going to be really tough to watch them knowing we had a clear shot and passed...for Case freaking Keenum.  Man.     I pray Elway just lucks out and Kelly shows something, or we somehow get close enough to get Herbert.   The trifecta disaster of reaching for a guy who's not really worth a 1st round pick, looms large, given how thin the QB class is at the top-end for 2019.

[AKRNA]

56 minutes ago, jolly red giant said:

I have to say that I have resisted the idea of blowing up the roster and starting a rebuild - but it is looking more and more like that is what is needed. I said a couple of weeks ago that I didn't like Von's demeanour in the presser - and he has been a shadow of himself the last two weeks.

Roby, Marshall, Stewart, Davis, Wolfe on defence, Kennum, Leary, Veldheer, Booker, DT could probably do with retiring (and I really like him), can we get another season or two out of Sanders - Bolles to RT (unless he develops the smarts to play LT over the rest of the season.

We have some decent to good young players - I liked that Sutton didn't give up on the INT and chased it down at the 1 yd line (and that was after getting his ankle rolled) - I think the basis for a decent roster is there - but we do need some changes.

Last point - I defended taking Chubb - but it will really hurt if Rosen (and Allen) turn out to be good QBs.

I felt the same way. I just had no idea how far our defense had fallen although the signs of it were apparent last season.

 Last week the excuse for them was they'd been on the field too long. Can't use that this week.

Giving up 323 yards rushing to a team that was averaging 88 per game is a bit much.

[thebestever6]

I don't see it as a necessity to completely blow this team up it has talent. I really think coaching and scheme are at an all time low. This team has a bunch of yes men.

This team will have a top 10 pick another draft like last year and this team is in business. 

 

This offense especially with this ground game and reinvigorated weapons are ideal for a young qb. So lets see what kelly has and if not go back to the drawling board. 

[thebestever6]

God there's people all over mhr wanting vj fired and kubiak to be reinserted as head coach it's not that simple. 

 

I think Keenum sucking is gonna make the colin Kaepernick collusion case winnable for him lol.

[AKRNA]

Hey @lomaxgrUK, if you get a chance pay a bit of attention to Billy Turner. I'm curious what we've go there.  Thanks!

[Broncofan]

OK got home from Canadian Thanksgiving, and not much to be thankful football-wise...except the kids.  But I should mention the few pluses:

1.  The kids - Sutton, Hamilton and the RB's really flashed again.   As much as I didn't like Sutton in Rd2 (wanted to hit CB or TE with Isiaih Oliver or Goedert, and that concern was borne out, and hit WR later), he's clearly proven worth it.    

2.  DT / Sanders - one of them has to go, and it's most likely DT given Sutton fits his profile better, but we should recognize they weren't the issue.  Frankly, they bailed Keenum out of some bad balls - the last TD, while meaningless, was notable for the fact DT had his guy beat...and Keenum lame-ducked another ball, DT just beat his guy in a jump ball for it.  

And.....really, that's about it.

A few observations on our problems:

1.  Our pass pro took another step back today.  McGovern & Paradis both blew assignments today on key plays, and the T's got beat (or took bad holding penalties).   They've not been a problem at all there, so it's not like this is a bad sign for them, but just fitting on how much we struggle as a unit.  The T's didn't even face tough EDGE's this week, and still had issues.    The killer sequence of being at their 40, taking a hold (yes, it was Bolles), then 2nd and 23, and then a bad punt, then the Crowell TD to tie things up 7-7 - let's get real, we weren't winning this one, but man, that was a very deflating sequence of events.   We just aren't good at all in pass pro, and we have to start scheming more help for our T's.  Sucks, esp. given the weapon we have with Lindsay, but until our protection and QB play improves, it is what it is.

2.  The vets we rely on to form the foundation of our trenches - Davis, Marshall, Wolfe, Gotsis (after a nice fumble force on the first series), and yes Peko...got just royally abused.  Those were mile-wide lanes that the NYJ power run game created (I did think this was a vulnerability, but man, this was just awful how we lost at the point of attack).   We also have to take Chubb and Von to task as they did an awful job in setting the edge for run D - Chubb in particular, got really turned around on the big chunk plays today.   Again, he's not the reason we lost, but he really went through a learning experience today.   It happens, but it shouldn't be hidden, either. 

3.  Our CB's went back to being roasted.    CHJ took our Enunwa...and the rest of the Jets WR's just took care of business.   At least this should prevent Elway from making a colossal mistake on a 2nd contract on Roby.

4.  Our ST's really sucked in punt coverage today - NYJ's K struggled with a missed chip shot, but their punt return team showed why they got such a high DVOA ranking.

5.  Keenum was once again late on so many reads, and so terribly inaccurate.   Weather, night, rain, cold - no excuses.   He's just awful.   

6.  Finally, the lack of preparation for this game was eye-opening.   For all the furor of cutting Marquette King for "performance" issues - if we were really serious about that, both Keenum and VJ would be sitting on the bench, and letting someone else play (I know Kelly isn't ready quite yet, but let's face it, our P is NOT the problem that it was made out to be - yes, could have been way better...but QB/playcalling has been a much bigger problem). 

So, we suck at the trenches on D, can't stop the pass or run, and we can't pass block, and our QB is a journeyman.  

Well, at least we have the kids.  And sooner or later, we'll get to see what Kelly brings for 2019+.  So there's that.  

Normally, I look forward to @lomaxgrUK's analysis - I kinda feel sorry for him this week.   Much respect as always, but this feels like unfair punishment to him.

[lomaxgrUK]

2 hours ago, Broncofan said:

Normally, I look forward to @lomaxgrUK's analysis - I kinda feel sorry for him this week.   Much respect as always, but this feels like unfair punishment to him.

Haha, don't feel sorry for me. In a really messed up way, I am quite looking forward to seeing exactly where (I feel) it went wrong. My initial assertions seem to match yours on Offense - poor pass pro on 3rd and long (I've mentioned this several times) and we then combine that with Case being late in getting the ball out.

I really, really didn't see that coming from our run Defense. Intrigued to see where it went wrong. I've harped on all year about how predictable our Defense is on 1st down in our Nickel - Cover 1, every time. The deep Safety will always shade to the side of the formation with 2 WR's on, so the Jets put 2 WR's to the right of the formation knowing it would leave Anderson 1v1 with Roby to the left. Yeh, that didn't end well for us.

I know people keep saying, "you went away from the run". I actually agree with VJ's take from midweek - to score points in this league with any consistency, you need explosive plays and you need them on 1st down when Defense's can't say you're passing with 100% certainty (like they can on 3rd and long).

Yes, our running game has been good, but no team in the NFL can run on 1st down (consistently) when a Defense is expecting it. I don't know why people seem to ignore this; the league is just too athletic now to simply line men up and try and run it down their throat. Musgrave knows that we can't afford to get into 3rd and 6 after two running plays because a) Case isn't good enough to consistently move the chains in this scenario and b) our OL can't consistently hold up.

A lot of the local beat writers seem to be using the same narrative about coming away from the run, but I just think that's a bit of a lazy take. Just look at the rest of the league and tell me a good Offense that runs on 1st and 2nd down then throws on 3rd down; I bet you can't. The worst starting QB's in the league tend to have (their version of) success when throwing on 1st down because you get the more favourable looks - Blake Bortles is a prime example of this.

The fact is, this team has too many overpaid players and a poor QB (the QB fits both of these narratives) - that's a recipe for disaster in this league.

[Broncofan]

3 hours ago, lomaxgrUK said:

Haha, don't feel sorry for me. In a really messed up way, I am quite looking forward to seeing exactly where (I feel) it went wrong. My initial assertions seem to match yours on Offense - poor pass pro on 3rd and long (I've mentioned this several times) and we then combine that with Case being late in getting the ball out.

I really, really didn't see that coming from our run Defense. Intrigued to see where it went wrong. I've harped on all year about how predictable our Defense is on 1st down in our Nickel - Cover 1, every time. The deep Safety will always shade to the side of the formation with 2 WR's on, so the Jets put 2 WR's to the right of the formation knowing it would leave Anderson 1v1 with Roby to the left. Yeh, that didn't end well for us.

I know people keep saying, "you went away from the run". I actually agree with VJ's take from midweek - to score points in this league with any consistency, you need explosive plays and you need them on 1st down when Defense's can't say you're passing with 100% certainty (like they can on 3rd and long).

Yes, our running game has been good, but no team in the NFL can run on 1st down (consistently) when a Defense is expecting it. I don't know why people seem to ignore this; the league is just too athletic now to simply line men up and try and run it down their throat. Musgrave knows that we can't afford to get into 3rd and 6 after two running plays because a) Case isn't good enough to consistently move the chains in this scenario and b) our OL can't consistently hold up.

A lot of the local beat writers seem to be using the same narrative about coming away from the run, but I just think that's a bit of a lazy take. Just look at the rest of the league and tell me a good Offense that runs on 1st and 2nd down then throws on 3rd down; I bet you can't. The worst starting QB's in the league tend to have (their version of) success when throwing on 1st down because you get the more favourable looks - Blake Bortles is a prime example of this.

The fact is, this team has too many overpaid players and a poor QB (the QB fits both of these narratives) - that's a recipe for disaster in this league.

I do think getting away from the run cost us the KC game.   That’s a valid take.  And we don’t run enough.   

The point you make about chunk plays though is spot-on in today’s NFL.    You can’t grind out 14 play drives each time.  It’s great when you can do it - but you need the ability to have a quick strike O too.  Ironically the only O that can be short-game heavy - the ones with great QB’s, because they don’t make as many mistakes in read / execution that guys like Keenum fail regularly at.   Or have that generational elite D.   But in either situation you create a situation with less margin for error and other parts of the team pick up that area.   With Keenum as QB we literally fail because creating multiple QB-must-win points each drive it’s inevitable he will fail.   

If we have the 2015 once in a generation D it works.  Or a powerful trench team on both sides.  We have neither.  And not likely to be that way for years.   So finding the cheap franchise QB is so key.  

Put another way - if we had Darnold / Rosen or Mayfield (who I will fully own I had my doubts on and still don’t think he’s long term as good as the first 2 but he’s swaying me to being worth 1.5 - albeit a moot point) - we’d probably still be 2-3.  Or even 1-4.   But we’d have so much real hope long term.   Now if Kelly has something real then it’s much better.  Of course it just means Elway got lucky but hey I’ll taje lucky over good right now.  We certainly didn’t get lucky with 36M/2 Keenum. 

[jolly red giant]

If you want to blow up the roster - here is what you got

Player - cap hit - dead money

Case Keenum – 21m – 10m

D Thomas – 17.5m – 3.5m

E. Sanders – 12.5m – 2.5m

Derek Wolfe – 13m – 2.5m

Ron Leary – 9.5m – 1.75m

Brandon Marshall – 9m – 4m

Darian Stewart – 6.4m – 2.8m

Todd Davis – 5m – 2m

 

Getting rid of the lot of them saves 65m and added to pre-existing cap space totals 93m in cap space for 2019 - with 27 players under contract.

 

Free-Agents that would need to be looked at to possibly resign -

Shaq Barrett

Matt Paradis

Shane Ray

Billy Turner

Bradley Roby (not at the moment)

Shelby Harris

J Heuerman

Casey Kreiter

E. Wilkerson

Matt LaCosse

Dymonte Thomas

Tim Patrick

[Royal_VT]

Know what sucks? This forum is at its best when we are a bad team lol.

[BroncoBruin]

I'd only keep Sanders from that group. And only re-sign Paradis and Shelby Harris from the list of free agents. 

[anewdawn]

I don't fault Elway for the Keenum signing.  When we signed him I had strong doubts he would have the same type of year as he did with the Vikes but having watched a few of the Viking games last year I was convinced he would be a decent qb for us.  So I thought like Elway too and thought we don't need to go qb at 1.5. and I was so hoping Chubb would be there.  So things unfolded nicely if you thought like Elway.  But man what a kick in the nuts the play of Keenum is.  I am bewildered at how bad his play is.  I am usually an optimist with regard to the broncos but even during the KC game I felt like KC was using "a rope a dope" type game and would pull it together and beat us.  Our coaches helped KC out huge.  

     I also had a bad feeling re the Jets game.  I stopped watching at about the 20 minute game point as I went with my wife to my parents for our Thanksgiving dinner.  My son was stunned I was going to stop watching the game (as my parents do not have NFL ticket).  I told him perhaps it was my negativity affecting the team as it appears I have no confidence in them at all.  So I left and watched the Lions defeat the Packers as my son fed me texts about what was going on with my beloved broncos.    

     Perhaps we have to admit that we have become the Seahawks 2.0.  You have a great team for a couple of years and then win it but maintaining that  calibre team can't be done in today's NFL.  As key pieces are let go and the team starts to falter remaining players question the moves done by management and anger rises and spreads like a cancer self destructing the team.  Bottom line the Seahawks had to do a major overhaul and I don't think we are far behind.  

     It's like this team has cancer and a lot of it.  And maybe not so much anger any more (as both the offence and defense now suck)  but rather just hopelessness and lack of confidence (meaning lack of faith in our coaching too).  Speaking of which, I am really starting to question the Bolles pick.  He was a beast in college as he was a man playing amongst boys.  Clearly the 25 year old draftee is proving to be out of his element in the big leagues.  His stupid penalties are too deflating for this pathetic offence.    Like the first one where the throw was to Lindsay.  On that play Bolles is asked to hold up the defender for what - half a second and he can't even do that.

     Alas, we have some great young pieces but some of the vets from our Superbowl team may have to go to get away from "glory days thinking" as those days have sadly come and gone!  Hopefully we get them back quick............  

     

[thebestever6]

21 minutes ago, anewdawn said:

I don't fault Elway for the Keenum signing.  When we signed him I had strong doubts he would have the same type of year as he did with the Vikes but having watched a few of the Viking games last year I was convinced he would be a decent qb for us.  So I thought like Elway too and thought we don't need to go qb at 1.5. and I was so hoping Chubb would be there.  So things unfolded nicely if you thought like Elway.  But man what a kick in the nuts the play of Keenum is.  I am bewildered at how bad his play is.  I am usually an optimist with regard to the broncos but even during the KC game I felt like KC was using "a rope a dope" type game and would pull it together and beat us.  Our coaches helped KC out huge.  

     I also had a bad feeling re the Jets game.  I stopped watching at about the 20 minute game point as I went with my wife to my parents for our Thanksgiving dinner.  My son was stunned I was going to stop watching the game (as my parents do not have NFL ticket).  I told him perhaps it was my negativity affecting the team as it appears I have no confidence in them at all.  So I left and watched the Lions defeat the Packers as my son fed me texts about what was going on with my beloved broncos.    

     Perhaps we have to admit that we have become the Seahawks 2.0.  You have a great team for a couple of years and then win it but maintaining that  calibre team can't be done in today's NFL.  As key pieces are let go and the team starts to falter remaining players question the moves done by management and anger rises and spreads like a cancer self destructing the team.  Bottom line the Seahawks had to do a major overhaul and I don't think we are far behind.  

     It's like this team has cancer and a lot of it.  And maybe not so much anger any more (as both the offence and defense now suck)  but rather just hopelessness and lack of confidence (meaning lack of faith in our coaching too).  Speaking of which, I am really starting to question the Bolles pick.  He was a beast in college as he was a man playing amongst boys.  Clearly the 25 year old draftee is proving to be out of his element in the big leagues.  His stupid penalties are too deflating for this pathetic offence.    Like the first one where the throw was to Lindsay.  On that play Bolles is asked to hold up the defender for what - half a second and he can't even do that.

     Alas, we have some great young pieces but some of the vets from our Superbowl team may have to go to get away from "glory days thinking" as those days have sadly come and gone!  Hopefully we get them back quick............  

     

I don't see us having to blow it up. I'm a believer that this is a solid roster.

 

It's no coincidence this team played fairly well at home in prime time monday, but gets blown out on the road time and time again. Look up the stats this team is brutal on the road. Most of that is on coaching/ culture. 

The only reason I liked the Keenum pick up wasn't because he was gonna set the world on fire. I even thought last year was fluky for him. All that being said you needed a qb that was gonna get this team excited.  A guy  that players bought in they can win with. Everything I've read in in training camp players have bought in. You also didn't want to pigeon hole yourself in going qb top 5. Elway and company wanted Darnold, and I think maybe Mayfield. 

The problem is the inept coaching and preparation going from VJ to joe woods is too much to overcome going back to last season this team is undisciplined and ill prepared, they also pack it in during games.

 

Bottom line, Case Keenum was always a better leader version of Matt Flynn. I think Elway wanted best case scenario vj to pan out this year and this team contends for the playoffs.  That's not in the cards. But why we may get rid of over paid vets. This teams gonna be in prime position for another beautiful draft.