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beardown3231

Bears @ Dolphins, 10/14/18, 12 CT, GAME THREAD

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5 hours ago, dll2000 said:

Bear brothers do a nice show each week where they talk to a local podcaster about their team.  

Get good insight in those shows. 

Dolphins D is young fast and talented particularly the secondary.  They are loving Minkah.  Secondary can take the ball away. 

They have no faith in their offense. Local fans are at point where they are sick of the Tannehill show like Bears fans were sick of Cutler show.  People don't want a middling QB year after year.  If Bears can make things rough early some boo birds are likely to start in and Dolphins will collapse like a house of cards,   That would be ideal. 

Basically if Tunsil, who is in concussion protocol, plays they can field an okay Oline. If he is out, it is atrocious because of a cascading effect of moving guys around and inserting a guy who really can't play.  It was local guys opinion that if Tunsil is out Dolphins have no chance and that makes sense.

Sadly for Bears it looks like they are rushing him through protocol as he practiced on Wed.  I think he plays because he has to. Their season is on the line in their minds and perhaps their jobs and without him they are f'd by all accounts. I dont have faith the team doctor doesn't do everything he can conscious or subconscious to pass him on that that baseline test. Independent doctor gets team doctor reports to review and clear or not as I understand it.  There is no independent examination to make your own determination off your own exam outside a playoff game. 

IMO you should probably be out at least a week if you had a concussion since real danger isnt nearly as much from concussion as subsequent blows too soon after the concussion.  The healing process in brain hasn't completed so its more vulnerable.  But whatever.  It is what it is. 

WRs are burners and speed can score in a hurry if you arent careful.  They are high on Drake and Gore. Fans feel Drake isnt being used properly. 

Even with Tunsil our D is better than their O.  Bears offense has to beat their defense. They should get more opportunities to do so.  Eventually that D will gas. Bears just have to avoid 3 and outs and turnovers until second half and they should have advantage then.  That is conservative way to victory and one Fox would take. I don't see Nagy taking that route. He wants to try to score points.  To his credit Fox would almost for sure win this game. Nagy want his O to grow, but that involves risking the win. I am fine with it. 

While I think O will still have some bumps is year, I think they are more talented than they get credit for at this point. Just a matter of experience. If Bears can score early and force them to play from behind and abandon the run they are really screwed because Tannehill isnt leading a big comeback only passing the ball behind that Oline.

On paper Bears should win this game even away.  Anything can happen though. Speed kills and Dolphins have it. They are at home and it will probably be hot. Refs could make weird roughing calls.  They can get a pick 6. Etc.  It will take some unusual happenings IMO for Dolphins to win this  game.  

Overall I would be surprised if Bears didn't win this game by at least 8. They have the more talented team. If you let them believe they can win in first half it could be closer and anyone can win a close game at home. Even awful Bears teams of recent years did that on occasion in those circumstances,  

 

 

Seriously bro I love your insight, cheers!

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RT @kfishbain: Fun facts!

The Bears lead the NFL in time of possession (33:03) and the Dolphins rank 30th (26:40).

 

Miami’s struggles on third down (30.9% conversion rate, 29th in the league) have led to that.

 

Chicago is 7th in third-down defense (33.3%).

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2 hours ago, beardown3231 said:

RT @kfishbain: Fun facts!

The Bears lead the NFL in time of possession (33:03) and the Dolphins rank 30th (26:40).

 

Miami’s struggles on third down (30.9% conversion rate, 29th in the league) have led to that.

 

Chicago is 7th in third-down defense (33.3%).

That is with us facing Rodgers and Wilson and while playing the prevent to run time off vs TB. Pretty damn solid.

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I watched Miami v Cin early this morning. 

They like to show blitz near every play and back out or not.  This has been a prob for MT.  Hopefully they practice against that this week.  They are big on penetration and getting upfield.  But in doing so they leave large running lanes.  They rely on speed of secondary and LBs to cover for reckless front.  Secondary is very fast. Windows will not be big unless they get confused in coverage.  Cohen is the match up advantage again. But they know it too.  Look for some adjustment from them. Hopefully Nagy has a plan B if he needs it.  I think you can straight old fashioned just run the ball down their throat. They are built to play spread passing teams. Not sure if Nagy will do that. 

With how aggressive their D coordinator is dont be surprised at some big Mia defensive plays.  They will get some sacks and prob an Int.  Overall though Bears should be aboe to move the ball if they keep their head in the game. 

Gore is banger inside and they want Drake on edges and in passing game.  Drake is fast, but I dont think he likes to be hit.  Gore likes to hit.  Prob why he is a fan favorite. His prob will be interior of Mia Oline vs Bears interior   Adv Bears.  Bears shoudl put a guy on Drake though and not do the NFL thing of let him catch it in flat and rally up as needed. He will make you pay and move the chains. 

Tannehill has weak arm.  Bears will get real shots at balls in this game. They need to catch them.  

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29 minutes ago, dll2000 said:

I watched Miami v Cin early this morning. 

They like to show blitz near every play and back out or not.  This has been a prob for MT.  Hopefully they practice against that this week.  They are big on penetration and getting upfield.  But in doing so they leave large running lanes.  They rely on speed of secondary and LBs to cover for reckless front.  Secondary is very fast. Windows will not be big unless they get confused in coverage.  Cohen is the match up advantage again. But they know it too.  Look for some adjustment from them. Hopefully Nagy has a plan B if he needs it.  I think you can straight old fashioned just run the ball down their throat. They are built to play spread passing teams. Not sure if Nagy will do that. 

With how aggressive their D coordinator is dont be surprised at some big Mia defensive plays.  They will get some sacks and prob an Int.  Overall though Bears should be aboe to move the ball if they keep their head in the game. 

Gore is banger inside and they want Drake on edges and in passing game.  Drake is fast, but I dont think he likes to be hit.  Gore likes to hit.  Prob why he is a fan favorite. His prob will be interior of Mia Oline vs Bears interior   Adv Bears.  Bears shoudl put a guy on Drake though and not do the NFL thing of let him catch it in flat and rally up as needed. He will make you pay and move the chains. 

Tannehill has weak arm.  Bears will get real shots at balls in this game. They need to catch them.  

I think this will be a shining game for Roquan Smith, particularly in coverage on Drake and at times blitzing depending upon who is in the backfield (I see him having more success against Drake than Gore for the reasons you mentioned). I anticipate Miami working the short/controlled passing game with some screens sprinkled in. They'll take their timely shots, likely in a max protect, just to keep the defense and safeties honest.

I hope Fangio plays some games (twists, stunts) up front to free up Floyd and RRH. I like Hicks one-on-one a bunch in this game, and I don't foresee Mack being singled up very often.

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2 minutes ago, G08 said:

I think this will be a shining game for Roquan Smith, particularly in coverage on Drake and at times blitzing depending upon who is in the backfield (I see him having more success against Drake than Gore for the reasons you mentioned). I anticipate Miami working the short/controlled passing game with some screens sprinkled in. They'll take their timely shots, likely in a max protect, just to keep the defense and safeties honest.

I hope Fangio plays some games (twists, stunts) up front to free up Floyd and RRH. I like Hicks one-on-one a bunch in this game, and I don't foresee Mack being singled up very often.

Not that it even matters xD

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1 hour ago, beardown3231 said:

Not that it even matters xD

Seriously, nothing matters for that guy. He has gotten sacks on triple teams.

I def see Mitch struggling a bit in this game because of the blitzing and the high level DB play from Miami. This might be a Jordan Howard game, but I feel like Nagy doesn't think that way and will be throwing it aggressively. 

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All of the above!

 

This is the game to use the versatility of our running backs and lean on the ground game. Use Mitch to keep them honest, hopefully we strike early on our script, mix in deep and quick pass to move the ball and score, then let the defense and running game keep control of this one.

Concerns would be if the Miami secondary makes Mitch mess up, and they get points off a turnover early. Frankly if we can get ahead, the backs and defense should make this a boring game.

 

 

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The more think about it, there more I think that Nagy is going to buck conventional wisdom and instead have Mitch air it out. Run it to death would make sense given the scenario, but I think maybe he takes that as a challenge and decides to show some confidence in his system and QB and instead goes balls to the wall and calls an aggressive passing game

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The extra practice is going to be big. Means they can script more plays with more practice reps.

We know what Mitch does with the plays he really knows. 

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14 hours ago, dll2000 said:

I watched Miami v Cin early this morning. 

They like to show blitz near every play and back out or not.  This has been a prob for MT.  Hopefully they practice against that this week.  They are big on penetration and getting upfield.  But in doing so they leave large running lanes.  They rely on speed of secondary and LBs to cover for reckless front.  Secondary is very fast. Windows will not be big unless they get confused in coverage.  Cohen is the match up advantage again. But they know it too.  Look for some adjustment from them. Hopefully Nagy has a plan B if he needs it.  I think you can straight old fashioned just run the ball down their throat. They are built to play spread passing teams. Not sure if Nagy will do that. 

With how aggressive their D coordinator is dont be surprised at some big Mia defensive plays.  They will get some sacks and prob an Int.  Overall though Bears should be aboe to move the ball if they keep their head in the game. 

Gore is banger inside and they want Drake on edges and in passing game.  Drake is fast, but I dont think he likes to be hit.  Gore likes to hit.  Prob why he is a fan favorite. His prob will be interior of Mia Oline vs Bears interior   Adv Bears.  Bears shoudl put a guy on Drake though and not do the NFL thing of let him catch it in flat and rally up as needed. He will make you pay and move the chains. 

Tannehill has weak arm.  Bears will get real shots at balls in this game. They need to catch them.  

Accurate breakdown with the exception of the bolded, where I'll strongly disagree. Tannehill throws ropes and can make all the deep outs, long balls, and bullet passes necessary. That's not where he struggles.

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20 hours ago, beardown3231 said:

Tunsil is playing on Sunday

No surprise.  If he doesnt play they have no chance and their season and the entire staffs jobs will be in jeopardy.  A lot of incentive to pass him.   

No surprise Prince pushed himself back too as back ups played well. 

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