2019 Free Agent Discussion

[rcon14]

3 minutes ago, skibrett15 said:

I don't really see lawrence or clowney being 'on the market' but they would be my preference.

Don't see Barr as a true edge.

Don't want Frank Clark for non-football reasons.

So for me it's Fowler, then Smith, then Graham.  Would be happy with one of those 3

Jesus Christ I completely forgot the Frank Clark incident.

Why do you prefer Fowler over Smith or Graham? Fowler hasn't been productive and doesn't have the athletic profile of a good EDGE.

Fwiw, Barr is a star EDGE athletically, but there are understandable questions about him going from pre-dominantly off-ball to on-ball.

[skibrett15]

4 minutes ago, rcon14 said:

Jesus Christ I completely forgot the Frank Clark incident.

Why do you prefer Fowler over Smith or Graham? Fowler hasn't been productive and doesn't have the athletic profile of a good EDGE.

Fwiw, Barr is a star EDGE athletically, but there are understandable questions about him going from pre-dominantly off-ball to on-ball.

Graham is on the wrong side of the age curve for me for a "big" free agent decision.  Smith I could be convinced of, but he always seems like a second fiddle at best kind of guy.  Don't see development over the years.

Fowler has the best pedigree in the draft, and looked like a good player in Jax last year, then looked again like a good player on the Rams.  Unfortunately, both were in a situation where he was playing alongside some really dominant players.  I just like the trajectory of his career a bit more.  He came back strong after his injury, and has done well in somewhat limited snaps, until finally getting a full time role on the Rams, where he started racking up pressures (despite low sacks).

 

Profile wise, he's unique and would be unique of the players on the team with his speed.  Pairs well with the slow burn guys we have up the middle.

[rcon14]

Just now, skibrett15 said:

Graham is on the wrong side of the age curve for me for a "big" free agent decision.  Smith I could be convinced of, but he always seems like a second fiddle at best kind of guy.  Don't see development over the years.

Fowler has the best pedigree in the draft, and looked like a good player in Jax last year, then looked again like a good player on the Rams.  Unfortunately, both were in a situation where he was playing alongside some really dominant players.  I just like the trajectory of his career a bit more.  He came back strong after his injury, and has done well in somewhat limited snaps, until finally getting a full time role on the Rams, where he started racking up pressures (despite low sacks).

 

Profile wise, he's unique and would be unique of the players on the team with his speed.  Pairs well with the slow burn guys we have up the middle.

I wouldn't be against it necessarily, he's just not on the top of my list (behind Barr and Smith, behind Graham in a vacuum) but depending on the money, I wouldn't be against it. I have some questions about his bend or power. He's kind of just a pure speed guy, which is hard to make useful if you can't either bend the corner or drive an OT back.

[skibrett15]

I'd prefer Graham on a 2 year deal to Fowler on a 2 year deal.  I'd prefer Fowler on a 4 year deal to Graham on a 4 year deal.  I'd prefer we sign someone to a 4 year deal than a 2 year deal if you think you have a shot at a future starter.

Graham's market I'm assuming is way higher/stronger given his pedigree and success and track record of staying healthy.

 

Preston Smith is just a mediocre starter to me.  He's an adequate cog and 2nd/3rd best pass rusher.  I'm not really sure he's more valuable than Fackrell because he has no versatility to run or cover in space.  Smith is firmly in the lower group with Shane Ray/Shaq Barrett etc.

 

Barr is a really interesting and productive player, but almost the opposite of Smith - I don't think he can win 1 on 1 undisguised pass rush reps against competent OTs.  He's more of an off ball guy for me, and it's probably a mute (sic) point given the Rodgers situation.  I'd rather have Barr than any of these guys except Fowler but that's only because I think he's a really strong NFL starter, not because I think he can rush the passer (which is a huge need for GB).  So the Need/Fit just really doesn't align for me.

 

So, to me, Fowler is the highest upside player who I expect to be out there and available.  Think there's a 20-30% chance that he gets a really big contract simply from his draft pedigree.  Former top 5 picks always get loooong looks from other front offices that didn't get the chance to draft him.  If not, I expect us to be involved in his market, and possibly actually sign him.

 

[Siman08/OH]

Bring back Geronimo.

Any chance we throw money at Sam Shields?

[squire12]

@skibrett15 and @rcon14

What was that....a civil discussion without any petty name calling or attacks.  Kudos to you both for sharing and discussing your thoughts on FA prospects without dragging things into the muck.  Have a few footballs!!!!!!

[rcon14]

45 minutes ago, skibrett15 said:

I'd prefer Graham on a 2 year deal to Fowler on a 2 year deal.  I'd prefer Fowler on a 4 year deal to Graham on a 4 year deal.  I'd prefer we sign someone to a 4 year deal than a 2 year deal if you think you have a shot at a future starter.

Graham's market I'm assuming is way higher/stronger given his pedigree and success and track record of staying healthy.

 

Preston Smith is just a mediocre starter to me.  He's an adequate cog and 2nd/3rd best pass rusher.  I'm not really sure he's more valuable than Fackrell because he has no versatility to run or cover in space.  Smith is firmly in the lower group with Shane Ray/Shaq Barrett etc.

 

Barr is a really interesting and productive player, but almost the opposite of Smith - I don't think he can win 1 on 1 undisguised pass rush reps against competent OTs.  He's more of an off ball guy for me, and it's probably a mute (sic) point given the Rodgers situation.  I'd rather have Barr than any of these guys except Fowler but that's only because I think he's a really strong NFL starter, not because I think he can rush the passer (which is a huge need for GB).  So the Need/Fit just really doesn't align for me.

 

So, to me, Fowler is the highest upside player who I expect to be out there and available.  Think there's a 20-30% chance that he gets a really big contract simply from his draft pedigree.  Former top 5 picks always get loooong looks from other front offices that didn't get the chance to draft him.  If not, I expect us to be involved in his market, and possibly actually sign him.

 

I'm way different on Preston Smith than you. He's a great athlete for an EDGE and has shown pretty solid production in a WAS defense that was legitimately four deep at EDGE all the years he was there. Here's a comparison of Smith and Fowler, athletically with Smith on the left and Fowler on the right. These are in percentiles

Mass: 66th, 63rd
Power: 80th, 47th
Speed 40: 67th, 93rd
Speed 10: 90th, 93rd
Agility: 82nd, 21st
Twitch: 60th, 47th

Smith is a better athlete than Fowler. He's produced more than Fowler in a more limited role. Fowler just got drafted higher.

Edited February 5, 2019 by rcon14
had to add percentile to the piece, I am an idiot

[rcon14]

4 minutes ago, squire12 said:

@skibrett15 and @rcon14

What was that....a civil discussion without any petty name calling or attacks.  Kudos to you both for sharing and discussing your thoughts on FA prospects without dragging things into the muck.  Have a few footballs!!!!!!

This is what I like. We can disagree and have reasons to disagree that are both completely reasonable! Anyone who thinks they're right 100% of the time or that other people are all just idiots aren't worth the time and something I'd like to see much less of in this forum.

[squire12]

1 minute ago, rcon14 said:

This is what I like. We can disagree and have reasons to disagree that are both completely reasonable! Anyone who thinks they're right 100% of the time or that other people are all just idiots aren't worth the time and something I'd like to see much less of in this forum.

Agreed.  It is why I was shocked to see multiple posts by each of you discussing things in a high grade manner.  Almost had to read it 2x for it to feel real.  

My thoughts on each is that I would like either Fowler or Smith.  Pretty close for me, with a slight lean toward Smith based on what I think would be a better fit in Pettine D.  Lot will come down to the $$ and whether either player would be willing to come to GB.

[rcon14]

15 minutes ago, Siman08/OH said:

Bring back Geronimo.

Any chance we throw money at Sam Shields?

I think the Sam Shields ship has sailed.

[Brit Pack]

For me, out of all the 'gettable' edge guys it has be Smith he had the highest successful pass rush percentage in the NFL in '17. Give him a similar contract to another former Redskin Trent Murphy and I'd be happy

[skibrett15]

3 minutes ago, rcon14 said:

Smith is a better athlete than Fowler. He's produced more than Fowler in a more limited role. Fowler just got drafted higher.

combine athlete.

Fowler has had a decidedly more limited role than Smith.  Fowler had 8 sacks and 10 qb hits in 2017 playing like 45% of snaps.  Not until he was on the rams this year did he even sniff 60% of snaps as a full time player.

Smith has played an average of 70% of snaps for the last 3 seasons and probably played too many last year at over 80%.  He's never had an issue seeing the field.

 

if you include Fowler's playoff production (not at any higher weight, just as a normal game), he is trending to be an 8 sack/year guy at like 50-60% of snaps.  That's really effective and tells me he has some significant room to grow.  He was drafted higher because he was a better player in college... to me that's a plus for looking at Free Agents, but it's also a plus to his market value.

[rcon14]

Just now, skibrett15 said:

combine athlete.

Fowler has had a decidedly more limited role than Smith.  Fowler had 8 sacks and 10 qb hits in 2017 playing like 45% of snaps.  Not until he was on the rams this year did he even sniff 60% of snaps as a full time player.

Smith has played an average of 70% of snaps for the last 3 seasons and probably played too many last year at over 80%.  He's never had an issue seeing the field.

 

if you include Fowler's playoff production (not at any higher weight, just as a normal game), he is trending to be an 8 sack/year guy at like 50-60% of snaps.  That's really effective and tells me he has some significant room to grow.  He was drafted higher because he was a better player in college... to me that's a plus for looking at Free Agents, but it's also a plus to his market value.

There is no difference between combine athlete and field athlete. You can see those traits on the field.

At the end of the day, I have Fowler and Smith in a similar tier below the clearly top-end EDGE guys, I just have Smith at the top of that tier.

[66PinG]

25 minutes ago, rcon14 said:

I'm way different on Preston Smith than you. He's a great athlete for an EDGE and has shown pretty solid production in a WAS defense that was legitimately four deep at EDGE all the years he was there. Here's a comparison of Smith and Fowler, athletically with Smith on the left and Fowler on the right.

Mass: 66th, 63rd
Power: 80th, 47th
Speed 40: 67th, 93rd
Speed 10: 90th, 93rd
Agility: 82nd, 21st
Twitch: 60th, 47th

Smith is a better athlete than Fowler. He's produced more than Fowler in a more limited role. Fowler just got drafted higher.

Based on what? Straight line speed?

Other than that, Fowler blows him outta the water in every meaningful category.

Give me Fowler, please. Dude has football speed, that's good enough for me.

[rcon14]

Just now, 66PinG said:

Based on what? Straight line speed?

Other than that, Fowler blows him outta the water in every meaningful category.

Give me Fowler, please. Dude has football speed, that's good enough for me.

Smith was on the left... Fowler was on the right. Only place Fowler won was the Speed 40 (3 percentile difference in Speed 10 is meaningless).