skibrett15 Posted December 14, 2018 Author Share Posted December 14, 2018 I would say a great but unique example of what Rodgers/This Offense do for a receiver is Jimmy Graham's 2018. Nothing about his individual play could be characterized as "great play" or "exciting" or "dominating". And yet his numbers improved (outside of TDs, which is really a matter of opportunity) ACROSS THE BOARD in what would otherwise be considered a BAD SEASON for the player. So. The first guy to come into GB from outside the organization and play with Rodgers saw a jump in Y/T and Y/G, despite having what looks like a really bad year on the field. So i ask you, is the reverse true? If MVS or Adams were to go to Seattle or New England or other good-great offenses with great QBs, would their numbers drop? Would their perception as players significantly decline? Is Adams a top 10 receiver outside of GB? The point of this thread was to consider a couple things, one of which was whether or not there is enough talent at the WR/TE/RB position to allow the offense to succeed up to Rodgers' potential. I think there's probably just enough at RB if Jones is healthy. I think TE could use a kendricks/Lewis replacement. And I think this team lacks a #2 WR. Right now it has a bunch of #3/#4 guys platooning to take on that role, but the production would be much greater if they had a real #2. Personnel wise, the protection is fine, the OL is fine! We have a top 5 rushing offense. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MrBobGray Posted December 14, 2018 Share Posted December 14, 2018 Saying the team lacks a #2 is strange to me. Allison will likely be back cheap, and was showing nice ability outside. His route running is actually pretty sharp and he has a massive catch radius. EQ honestly looks like a future star to me. He should have had significantly more targets this season, and honestly Aaron missed him several times on plays that should have been catches. He's only 21 and he's now dealing with the elbow, but I see a guy there that with a bit more time could be something special. And then you do have the young guys in MVS and Moore where it's too soon to say exactly what they'll be. MVS has a lot to work on but by all accounts is a grinder who wants to be great, and Moore is incredibly talented but equally raw. Any of those four guys could make the jump to being a legitimate starter, and if you have four bites at the apple you really don't need a bunch more; use that money/picks elsewhere with less in the oven. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skibrett15 Posted December 14, 2018 Author Share Posted December 14, 2018 11 minutes ago, MrBobGray said: Saying the team lacks a #2 is strange to me. Allison will likely be back cheap, and was showing nice ability outside. His route running is actually pretty sharp and he has a massive catch radius. EQ honestly looks like a future star to me. He should have had significantly more targets this season, and honestly Aaron missed him several times on plays that should have been catches. He's only 21 and he's now dealing with the elbow, but I see a guy there that with a bit more time could be something special. And then you do have the young guys in MVS and Moore where it's too soon to say exactly what they'll be. MVS has a lot to work on but by all accounts is a grinder who wants to be great, and Moore is incredibly talented but equally raw. Any of those four guys could make the jump to being a legitimate starter, and if you have four bites at the apple you really don't need a bunch more; use that money/picks elsewhere with less in the oven. I think on paper this makes total sense. My thinking takes me here though: Allison is barely roster worthy and only playable because he has rodgers Agree that ESB looks like the best guy going forward. He's my future #3, but he has looked and played like a rookie so it's still very early to tell. Most late round WRs don't work out. MVS has a lot of issues with Rodgers and precision, and that really limits his upside playing with Aaron. Moore is a nothing. Probably won't ever work out with this team, but you never know. Liked him in the draft for sure. Everything after that was downhill but it was a very crowded room. i'm just not sure that any of these guys are really worthy of chat outside of GB. If you had a chance to trade any player/pick from the 2018 draft, would any of these guys go much higher than their drafted slot? Clearly they aren't total busts, but there's maybe a round or two of upside at most here for the rookies. And I'm gonna attribute that upside to simply opportunity which usually isn't there for rookies, as well as playing with Rodgers - he just makes them look better than they are. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vegas492 Posted December 14, 2018 Share Posted December 14, 2018 3 hours ago, St Vince said: I was actually going off their current salaries for this year. Grahams price should come down due to age. Graham at a lesser amount and I'm interested. I think his Spotrac projection is overvalued too. But...we shall see. I've long thought that whatever I think the value is of a free agent...add 33% to it and that will be closer to the mark that they get. I would peg him for $8M/average. So, that would put him at 10.64M/average. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vegas492 Posted December 14, 2018 Share Posted December 14, 2018 24 minutes ago, skibrett15 said: I think on paper this makes total sense. My thinking takes me here though: Allison is barely roster worthy and only playable because he has rodgers Agree that ESB looks like the best guy going forward. He's my future #3, but he has looked and played like a rookie so it's still very early to tell. Most late round WRs don't work out. MVS has a lot of issues with Rodgers and precision, and that really limits his upside playing with Aaron. Moore is a nothing. Probably won't ever work out with this team, but you never know. Liked him in the draft for sure. Everything after that was downhill but it was a very crowded room. i'm just not sure that any of these guys are really worthy of chat outside of GB. If you had a chance to trade any player/pick from the 2018 draft, would any of these guys go much higher than their drafted slot? Clearly they aren't total busts, but there's maybe a round or two of upside at most here for the rookies. And I'm gonna attribute that upside to simply opportunity which usually isn't there for rookies, as well as playing with Rodgers - he just makes them look better than they are. Couple things that I think... I think you are undervaluing Allison. This coming from me, who said here last offseason that he would get rid of Allison quickly as the team should be able to do better on the outside than him. And? I was wrong. Allison has value above being "barely roster worthy". I've come a long way on him. But...that is just me. ESB... of the 3 drafted kids, he had the highest "score" on his scouting profile. https://www.nfl.com/prospects/equanimeous-st. brown?id=32462018-0002-5602-03f6-dbdbfff5cbea Couple tidbits on ESB...St. Brown's combination of size and speed will be coveted by offenses looking for a prospect who can create throwing windows down the field with his ability to separate as the route progresses. St. Brown's competitive nature needs to improve as does his play strength to elude early pressure from physical cornerbacks. He has never been a volume target and has just three 100-yard games in his career. At this stage, St. Brown is more of a threat than a weapon and his ceiling may be an average starter or WR3. Effortless glider Needs to play with more consistent urgency Moore wise...he shows quickness. And he got open in pre-season. Just dropped the ball. He has that short area quickness similar to Adams. Like Adams, I think he needs time and patience. Just food for thought. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wgbeethree Posted December 14, 2018 Share Posted December 14, 2018 3 hours ago, Scoremore said: Yes that is exactly correct. Draft BPA and fill in remaining holes through FA. ????? Free agency starts well before the draft though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cadmus Posted December 14, 2018 Share Posted December 14, 2018 4 minutes ago, wgbeethree said: ????? Free agency starts well before the draft though. All the good FAs wait to be signed until after the draft though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CWood21 Posted December 14, 2018 Share Posted December 14, 2018 On 12/13/2018 at 10:29 AM, craig said: I get this logic, and waffle on it. And CWood often notes that TE's and receivers aren't often good as rookies anyway. So yeah, one side of me says yes, got to give them all a couple of years to figure out if they're going to end up being good. The other side, though, says that *if* the premise is that it takes two year, then *if* we realize that MVS and ESB and Moore aren't going to end up becoming good #2's, or even asset #3 type guys.... then it means we're waiting for 2020 to try again. Which using CWood's premise would mean that if MVS/ESB/Moore don't click this year, then we're waiting till 2021 at the soonest to have draft help at receiver. So part of me says I'm not sure I want to risk going Adams + mediocre for the next three years, like we've experienced this year and last. So part of me thinks it could be really good to invest a 2nd round pick on a worthy receiver. WRs have a little bit more production their rookie year, moreso than TEs. But it's not a ton of production by any means. And I'm not saying we should ignore the position all together. I just think the idea of investing anything worthwhile in the position when we've seen enough from MVS and ESB to be a waste of resources. Throwing another mid-round pick on a tall, athletic WR is fine, but the notion of spending a Day 2 pick on another WR seems unwise. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CWood21 Posted December 14, 2018 Share Posted December 14, 2018 5 hours ago, vegas492 said: Interesting. Just for giggles....Let's try this... Spotrac puts GB at about $40M to spend. Let's roll with that number. GB always rolls money, right? Let's set aside $7M. $34M to spend. Graham...Spotrac puts him at 5 years, $79M. Average salary at 15.8M. Because of contract structure, let's put him at first year comp around $11M. 19M left. Barrett...Spotrac puts him at 4 years, $30M. 7.4M average salary. Let's adjust that down a little for structure. Say 6M in year one. 13M left. Richardson. Spotrac doesn't have a projection on him. He's making $8M now. Less or more for next year? Let's say, 7M cap hit year one. 6M left. I don't see getting those three and still having $20M to go after someone like Thomas or Collins. True, GB could release guys to gain more money. Tramon Williams for one. Perhaps Perry. Save a little and move on from Crosby or re-structure. Debatable whether or not Graham would be worth it. Perhaps you can forgo him for someone else, or give that money to Earl Thomas. Agree that GB could land 3 nice free agents. ..and perhaps find a way to bring back Clay at an appropriate number to be a situational guy as a rusher and insurance at ILB in case of emergency. Agree that it will be an exciting off-season. We're rolling over ~$5M this year based on what we're sitting at right now, so I'd use that number. Graham at ~$16M seems reasonable, but I'm not sure you're getting him with a Y1 cap hit of $11M. You're probably looking at least $12M in Year 1. If you're backloading that kind of deal, you're asking for the player to decline it. Let's say $12.5M give or take. Signing Shaquil Barrett and Brandon Graham seems a bit redundant. Sheldon Richardson probably is going to be able to parlay his season into a long-term deal, so you're probably pushing $12M+. You can take the money you were spending on Barrett and put it towards a safety. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CWood21 Posted December 14, 2018 Share Posted December 14, 2018 5 hours ago, SSG said: Over the last 19 drafts (not including this year's) the GB has drafted exactly 1 serviceable WR with a pick that was beyond pick 80. One out of 18 WRs that were selected with a 4th round or later pick (Donald Driver) in the past 20 years. Meanwhile, picks before 80 is drastically different. We've drafted 8 such WRs and all but 1 (Terrance Murphy who was lost to a career ending injury his rookie season) turned into serviceable WR. If we moved that criteria back to first thru third rounders, we'd have 2 that didn't work out at WR, Monty being the second guy. In year's past we weren't "burning picks" when using that quality investment on a WR. I remember wanting to throw my remote through my TV the year Jordy Nelson was drafted because we were already loaded at WR (DD, #85 and a sophomore James Jones)...... Well it turns out Ted Thompson was a lot smarter than this dumb solider. I'd much rather use an early pick on a DaVante Adams, Jordy Nelson, Randall Cobb, James Jones, Gregg Jennings caliber of player then sit around and wait and see if the uber athletic Jeff Janis, DeANgelpo Yancey, Trevor Davis or Malachi Dupre develop into something serviceable. What we have has been good enough to get our offense to 5 wins this year. It's been good enough to have 4 entire halves of football with 3 points or less. It's been good enough to have 8 halves of football with 7 points or less. Our offense has been terrible this year in large part because the talent we have at pass catcher sucks. It's not a Adams/Jennings/Nelson vs. nothing discussion that you're trying to make it out to be. It's a Adams/Jennings/Nelson vs. Chris Jones (or insert whatever player you take in that round). In terms of value, I'd rather invest heavily on another position than WR. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CWood21 Posted December 14, 2018 Share Posted December 14, 2018 4 hours ago, Scoremore said: Yes that is exactly correct. Draft BPA and fill in remaining holes through FA. Except FA happens before the draft... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
coachbuns Posted December 14, 2018 Share Posted December 14, 2018 6 hours ago, vegas492 said: Interesting. Just for giggles....Let's try this... Spotrac puts GB at about $40M to spend. Let's roll with that number. GB always rolls money, right? Let's set aside $7M. $34M to spend. Graham...Spotrac puts him at 5 years, $79M. Average salary at 15.8M. Because of contract structure, let's put him at first year comp around $11M. 19M left. Barrett...Spotrac puts him at 4 years, $30M. 7.4M average salary. Let's adjust that down a little for structure. Say 6M in year one. 13M left. Richardson. Spotrac doesn't have a projection on him. He's making $8M now. Less or more for next year? Let's say, 7M cap hit year one. 6M left. I don't see getting those three and still having $20M to go after someone like Thomas or Collins. True, GB could release guys to gain more money. Tramon Williams for one. Perhaps Perry. Save a little and move on from Crosby or re-structure. Debatable whether or not Graham would be worth it. Perhaps you can forgo him for someone else, or give that money to Earl Thomas. Agree that GB could land 3 nice free agents. ..and perhaps find a way to bring back Clay at an appropriate number to be a situational guy as a rusher and insurance at ILB in case of emergency. Agree that it will be an exciting off-season. Don't forget the $12 million increase the cap limit will go up next year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scoremore Posted December 14, 2018 Share Posted December 14, 2018 (edited) 30 minutes ago, CWood21 said: Except FA happens before the draft... Good point however FA's are available well after. Also trades cuts etc. Edited December 14, 2018 by Scoremore Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlexGreen#20 Posted December 14, 2018 Share Posted December 14, 2018 2 hours ago, skibrett15 said: I would say a great but unique example of what Rodgers/This Offense do for a receiver is Jimmy Graham's 2018. Nothing about his individual play could be characterized as "great play" or "exciting" or "dominating". And yet his numbers improved (outside of TDs, which is really a matter of opportunity) ACROSS THE BOARD in what would otherwise be considered a BAD SEASON for the player. So. The first guy to come into GB from outside the organization and play with Rodgers saw a jump in Y/T and Y/G, despite having what looks like a really bad year on the field. So i ask you, is the reverse true? If MVS or Adams were to go to Seattle or New England or other good-great offenses with great QBs, would their numbers drop? Would their perception as players significantly decline? Is Adams a top 10 receiver outside of GB? The point of this thread was to consider a couple things, one of which was whether or not there is enough talent at the WR/TE/RB position to allow the offense to succeed up to Rodgers' potential. I think there's probably just enough at RB if Jones is healthy. I think TE could use a kendricks/Lewis replacement. And I think this team lacks a #2 WR. Right now it has a bunch of #3/#4 guys platooning to take on that role, but the production would be much greater if they had a real #2. Personnel wise, the protection is fine, the OL is fine! We have a top 5 rushing offense. I think you need to take into account that the Seahawks passing offense is like one step above dysfunctional. May be less us being good and more them being tragic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skibrett15 Posted December 14, 2018 Author Share Posted December 14, 2018 2 minutes ago, AlexGreen#20 said: I think you need to take into account that the Seahawks passing offense is like one step above dysfunctional. May be less us being good and more them being tragic. They are like the 10th-15th passing offense though? Decidedly above average How much better is Mike Evans on this team than Adams currently is? Or AJ Green? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts