Nabbs4u Posted December 29, 2018 Share Posted December 29, 2018 4 minutes ago, Thelonebillsfan said: From the 2010 to the 2015 MLB drafts, all but 13 top-10 picks made it to the majors. Rule of thumb is unless you're just a colossal mega bust, if you're drafted that high you make the show. How long did it take? On average? 3 years? 4? Curious? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Broncofan Posted December 29, 2018 Share Posted December 29, 2018 3 problems with Kyler Murray being drafted high right now: 1. He's already signed and committed to go to MLB training camp. That's in February 2019. That also means he's either skipping the Combine altogether, or he's going to be in baseball mode while getting ready to attend the Combine (something I doubt either the NFL or the A's will be enthusiastic about). And attending the Combine would likely require the A's permission, since it overlaps with their Training Camp. The A's would be well within their rights to refuse, for the risk of injury, and protecting their investment. Missing the Combine would be sending a huge flag on his commitment to football. I don't know many teams who would be investing a major asset into someone who chose to skip the Combine for another sport. 2. He's signed as a top 10 pick, and from a team that does not keep college guys down for service time manipulation if they are ready. College high picks are already 21-22, so unlike high school or international signings, they don't spend 3-4 years in the minors - 1-2 years is the usual ETA, and 1 year is being seen more & more (with a 8-10 week extension into year 2 if a team want to play the Super-2 arbitration delay game). As @Thelonebillsfan noted, the success rate to make it to the bigs is a lock - and the timeframe for college grads is much, much shorter. 3. Keep in mind that draft rights for a NFL player only extends 1 year - so if Murray wants to try baseball out first, and keep the NFL as a side option - he can also just choose to not sign a NFL contract this year, and re-enter next year's draft - and if he goes undrafted, then he signs as a UDFA anytime after that. For those that suggest that Murray could try to play both sports - given he's already committed to the A's and signed the deal, and plans on reporting to the February training camp, a team that would be drafting him in April would have to be willing to take the chance that he will sign, return the MLB $, and then turn his back on his MLB career, versus the prospect of him committing to the A's for 2019, not sign a contract, and then the pick's completely wasted - because Murray can always just re-enter the 2020 draft if for some reason he has a huge change of heart about baseball. If you add all of the above up, it's a very stacked deck against Murray choosing football outright, right now, over baseball. Thing is, to get an early pick, he probably needs to make that type of commitment - if he chooses to see his baseball path through, the setup above is a major disincentive to do anything but take a flyer pick that's of little consequence if he sticks it out with baseball. But, there's a simple way to tell what Murray's going to do - does Murray follow through on his attendance for Training Camp in early February with the A's? If he does, well, the above obstacles make a high pick for Murray seem like fool's gold. Now, if Murray turns his back on the A's, returns the $, and announces plans to attend the Combine and skip Training Camp, all bets are off. Then we can have the discussion. But the commitment he's made to the A's and the timing of TC will take away a lot of the uncertainty well before Draft Day. Which is a good thing, it would be a shame for a team to waste a Day 2 pick on Murray (let alone a 1st round) pick if he's still leaning to baseball, given the pick only holds the rights for 1 year unsigned. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shanedorf Posted December 29, 2018 Share Posted December 29, 2018 ^ Excellent post And at some point in the NFL draft, the risk/reward equation is gonna match up and some team will risk a pick on him. I'd also suspect that some team(s) will get private re-assurances of his intentions while others will not. That potentially allows Kyler some flexibility in choosing his NFL destination. He may be interested in the NFL IF he goes to any of these 5 teams, but his NFL desires wane if he goes to other franchises. Its going to take a certain kind of coach to maximize/minimize what he brings to the table. I'd hire Flutie as the QB coach Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sp6488 Posted December 29, 2018 Share Posted December 29, 2018 16 hours ago, Nabbs4u said: How long did it take? On average? 3 years? 4? Curious? It's tough to compare between HS draftees, mid-college draftees and senior draftees. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
seminoles1 Posted December 30, 2018 Share Posted December 30, 2018 On 12/28/2018 at 9:28 PM, Thelonebillsfan said: I just don't get the NFL stuff. He's not Doug Flutie, he has a so-so arm and is fast, he's a safety in the NFL. This is the first time I've watched him...and I don't see how you can think he has a so-so arm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lancerman Posted December 30, 2018 Share Posted December 30, 2018 If you have realistic prospects to make it in baseabll, you always pick baseaball. More money, stronger union, guaranteed money, longer career, less chance of a serious injury that could effect your quality of life, low risk of getting concussion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
C0LTSFAN4L1F3 Posted December 30, 2018 Share Posted December 30, 2018 MLB: Pro's: -Make more money -no debilitating brain damage. -Overall body isn't damaged nearly as much. -Don't have to really do anything during a game. Can just chew gum/Tobacco the entire time. Being in good cardio shape is entirely optional. Cons: -Wouldn't be playing a real sport. NFL: Pros: -Would be playing a real sport -would be more famous because football is a much more popular sport.(could be a pro or a con) Cons: -Severely debilitating, life-long brain damage. -entire body being compromised, lose physical health later in life. -less money -actually has to do things, game is exhausting, requires cardiovascular endurance. Can't spend most of game chewing gum/tobacco MLB wins hands down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
riceman80 Posted December 30, 2018 Share Posted December 30, 2018 2 hours ago, seminoles1 said: This is the first time I've watched him...and I don't see how you can think he has a so-so arm. He has got a more than adequate arm. The ball explodes out of his hand and he throws a gorgeous deep ball. With Herbert out he'd be my #1 QB at this point if he declared. IMHO, if he was 6' or taller and didnt have the baseball stuff around him, he'd be a top 10 pick. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cddolphin Posted December 30, 2018 Author Share Posted December 30, 2018 15 hours ago, C0LTSFAN4L1F3 said: MLB: Pro's: -Don't have to really do anything during a game. Can just chew gum/Tobacco the entire time. Being in good cardio shape is entirely optional. Cons: -Wouldn't be playing a real sport. you ain't lyin Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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