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2018-2019 Offseason Thread (Season Concludes)


gopherwrestler

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13 hours ago, since72 said:

Actually, for his top 8 YPG this season, the team is 3-4-1 and with his bottom 8 YPG the record is 5-2.   Sure, he laid an egg against Chicago last weekend and was horrible against New England.  But against playoff teams - Chicago (first game), Philly, New Orleans, and LAR, is also where he's putting up above average stats.

Chicago L 132
Detroit W 164
New England L 201
Seattle L 208
Miami W 215
Arizona W 233
New York Jets W 241
San Francisco W 244
Detroit W 253
Chicago L 262
Buffalo L 296
Philadelphia W 301
Green Bay W 342
New Orleans L 359
Los Angeles L 422
Green Bay T 425

Does anyone else notice that Cousins YPG went down every game after the 425 against GB?  To me, that's a very telling statistic...for those who care about statistics.

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16 hours ago, Vikes_Bolts1228 said:

Stopped reading at "PFF"

I don't get where the idea comes from that Cousins is appreciably better than Dalton. Coming into the season he was right about at Dalton's level. Nothing happened throughout the season to change that. If you don't buy into PFF grades maybe you'll like Football Outsiders better.

FO has Cousins at a DVOA of 2.7% ranked as the 19th QB. That is just a little behind 17th ranked Andy Dalton who was at 5.2%.  

If you don't know what DVOA is, here is the explanation from their site: "This number represents value, per play, over an average quarterback in the same game situations." That passes the eyeball test. Without stats I would have thought that Cousins was maybe just a hair above the mean too. I am maybe a little surprised to see him a hair below median. That is right about Andy Dalton level.

It doesn't make sense to me how someone could objectively come the conclusion that Cousins is appreciably better than Andy Dalton. Cousins could be exactly the line of demarcation for the Dalton Line this year.

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Cousins has a couple of nice seasons in terms of QBR/DVOA in 2015 and 2016, so maybe he is capable of more. It just seemed like this year he didn't have another gear.  If we were playing a tougher opponent, playing a more important game, or if it was just crunch time he didn't seem to ever step up outside of that first Packers game.

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1 hour ago, Cearbhall said:

I don't get where the idea comes from that Cousins is appreciably better than Dalton. Coming into the season he was right about at Dalton's level. Nothing happened throughout the season to change that. If you don't buy into PFF grades maybe you'll like Football Outsiders better.

FO has Cousins at a DVOA of 2.7% ranked as the 19th QB. That is just a little behind 17th ranked Andy Dalton who was at 5.2%.  

If you don't know what DVOA is, here is the explanation from their site: "This number represents value, per play, over an average quarterback in the same game situations." That passes the eyeball test. Without stats I would have thought that Cousins was maybe just a hair above the mean too. I am maybe a little surprised to see him a hair below median. That is right about Andy Dalton level.

It doesn't make sense to me how someone could objectively come the conclusion that Cousins is appreciably better than Andy Dalton. Cousins could be exactly the line of demarcation for the Dalton Line this year.

Objectively, yes, they were on the similar level this year according to DVOA (not so much when it's converted into yardage, which is the DYAR). But, historically, they are not.  Here's how they ranked in DVOA in previous years:

2017 - Cousins 18th, Dalton 24th

2016 - Cousins 5th, Dalton 12th

2015 - Cousins 6th, Dalton 2nd

2014 - Cousins 15th, Dalton 25th

Other than 2015, Cousins has been appreciably better than Dalton.  

I won't argue about the Dalton line comparison though, because a solid argument can be made to justify that Cousins is more of that standard now than Dalton is, because Dalton has so far fallen from what he was just a couple of years ago, that he isn't a competent starting QB any longer.  Cousins is, arguably, somewhere in that 10-15 range among starting QBs, which is where Dalton was just a few short years ago. 

  

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For those, like me, anxious over the Hue Jackson would be debacle... PA, on his radio show, just said that he has it on "good authority" that Hue Jackson is not a candidate for the Vikings offensive coordinator job.

Most of the time I can't PA and his schtick... but I appreciate him alleviating my anxiety, because he is pretty plugged in to the team.

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3 hours ago, Virginia Viking said:

Does anyone else notice that Cousins YPG went down every game after the 425 against GB?  To me, that's a very telling statistic...for those who care about statistics.

I don't get this post. Are you saying you expect Cousins to throw for 425+ a game? Of course his YPG went down after a 425 yard performance...

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10 minutes ago, RpMc said:

For those, like me, anxious over the Hue Jackson would be debacle... PA, on his radio show, just said that he has it on "good authority" that Hue Jackson is not a candidate for the Vikings offensive coordinator job.

Most of the time I can't PA and his schtick... but I appreciate him alleviating my anxiety, because he is pretty plugged in to the team.

Absolutely, I would believe Zimmer would try to bring him into here as some sort of an assistant tho. That part would not shock me one bit.

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5 minutes ago, VikeManDan said:

I don't get this post. Are you saying you expect Cousins to throw for 425+ a game? Of course his YPG went down after a 425 yard performance...

True, you can't expect to improve on 425 yards, but if you look at his game totals, they kind of decline pretty consistently throughout the season.  The last 5 games were definitely below average, right when they were pushing for the playoffs.  He didn't deliver in crunch time.

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11 hours ago, byuvike88 said:

What do yall think we could get for him realistically? I was listening to one of Andy Carlson's youtube videos and he was making a good point about the Raiders having 3 picks, or possibly Osemele. He also mentioned Paul Gunther being a Zimmer disciple and how much Gruden loves the double a gap look. 

Not to meantion Mike Mayock though Barr was the best thing since sliced bread during the draft process. I wouldn’t be shocked one bit to look at a tag and trade. My only thought would be..... why would they give up Mack..... to gain Barr..... for maybe just a little salary cap room. 

9 hours ago, Vikes_Bolts1228 said:

It was just about $15 million in 2018 so maybe $15.25?

$16.325M I believe is the tag number estimate for LB’s I believe

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17 minutes ago, VikeManDan said:

I don't get this post. Are you saying you expect Cousins to throw for 425+ a game? Of course his YPG went down after a 425 yard performance...

I just think it's interesting that it went down each successive game.  I expect ups and downs throughout a season, but if you were to graph his YPG, it would be a line sloping down the entire season.

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3 minutes ago, since72 said:

True, you can't expect to improve on 425 yards, but if you look at his game totals, they kind of decline pretty consistently throughout the season.  The last 5 games were definitely below average, right when they were pushing for the playoffs.  He didn't deliver in crunch time.

I don't disagree with the bolded one bit. The fact is that every team, every year can go back and point to a few specific plays that would've changed the season.

1. Make one kick against the Packers? We're in the playoffs. 
*Packers fans could use this game in their favor as well

2. Show up against the Bills? We're in the playoffs.

3. Don't throw a pick 6 against the Saints, who knows?
*Add on the uncharacteristic fumble of Thielen in this game as well.

4. Don't throw a pick 6 against the Bears at Soldier, who knows?

5. Refs make the correct call on Bobby Wagner in Seattle? Who knows?

6. JDF sticks to the run against the Patriots, who knows?

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2 minutes ago, Virginia Viking said:

I just think it's interesting that it went down each successive game.  I expect ups and downs throughout a season, but if you were to graph his YPG, it would be a line sloping down the entire season.

Gotcha, that makes more sense.

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53 minutes ago, RpMc said:

For those, like me, anxious over the Hue Jackson would be debacle... PA, on his radio show, just said that he has it on "good authority" that Hue Jackson is not a candidate for the Vikings offensive coordinator job.

Most of the time I can't PA and his schtick... but I appreciate him alleviating my anxiety, because he is pretty plugged in to the team.

Considering the original source (La Canfora), I just laughed and sat back to watch Vikings fans panic. For those that don’t know, La Canfora has a reputation of trying to connect dots and guess, which he then passes off as “league sources”. 

But when Goessling came out and added a little more credibility to the rumor, my anxiety level went up. 

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Zimmer: “Quite honestly, the death of Tony Sparano really kind of threw things into a little bit of a downward spiral, only because the fact that this guy was type-A personality. He was very innovative in the running game, had a strong voice in that room and had a strong voice with me. Yes, I do feel like we lost a little bit of our identity. We are going to get that back.”

https://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2019/01/04/mike-zimmer-we-lost-some-of-our-identity-when-tony-sparano-died/

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