Free Agent Rumors

[soulman]

15 minutes ago, beardown3231 said:

Someone named Tony Nagle on twitter said Houston is signing here on a 1 year deal

Hmmm.....gotta wonder why a 30 year old OLB/Edge as good as Houston would take a 1 year deal.  Seems odd to me and maybe untrue.

[beardown3231]

The almighty Tony Nagle deleted that tweet 

[Sugashane]

52 minutes ago, soulman said:

Yeah but we weren't a top 5 defense with them either.

I'm not opposed to Ziggy but we still gotta be developing our younger cheaper guys and that's hard to do when older vets are taking their snaps.

It is irrelevant if we were top 5 or not. We improved a lot from being the 31st or whatever with McPhee and Young playing significant reps, without Eddie Jackson, Roquan, etc. The pieces are here now, and his is a better passrusher than any DE/OLB reserve we have had in ages. 

If we have passrushers then we can get them on the field. Marilelli had his passrusher package (NASCAR or whatever he called it) that had 3 DEs and Melton on the line. I'd be fine with Mack - Hicks - Ansah - Floyd all pinning their ears back. 

Maybe Fitts and Irving will step up but I have seen nothing from them to make me think they are going to make an impact yet. If Pace has his guy in the draft he is going to be aggressive and snag then great, but if we lose Mack we have no other legit EDGE rusher. Floyd is a utility OLB, and nothing else has really showed from the young guys. Maybe they'll make the jump this year, IDK. 

That all being said, Ansah isn't worth breaking the bank for, Houston I'd go higher but I think he can get significantly more elsewhere, the only place I believed would get the discount was KC. I just don't want to leave our EDGE as is, since Floyd is on his way out if he has even a decent season IMO. 

[soulman]

8 minutes ago, Sugashane said:

I just don't want to leave our EDGE as is, since Floyd is on his way out if he has even a decent season IMO. 

I don't believe that at all.  We won't have the picks to replace him and unless he starts ringing up double digit sacks he won't be that pricey to extend if we move on him early.  Mack, Floyd, and a 3rd rusher for the rotation and we're good for now.

And I could see some slight chance of Pave inquiring about Houston but not Ziggy.  I just don't see a fit like you do.  Both Houston and McPhee played some OLB before becoming Bears.  Ziggy never has.  But.....if he came cheap I wouldn't slam the door either.  You'd have to consider it.

Personally I'd just keep working out some younger guys looking for some help now and keep drafting edge guys looking for a diamond in the rough.

[Sugashane]

14 minutes ago, soulman said:

I don't believe that at all.  We won't have the picks to replace him and unless he starts ringing up double digit sacks he won't be that pricey to extend if we move on him early.  Mack, Floyd, and a 3rd rusher for the rotation and we're good for now.

Trey Flowers just got 5 years $90 mil and he isn't a dominant passrusher, but a solid all around OLB like Floyd. 

 

Preston Smith got 4 years $52 mil and isn't better than Floyd IMO

 

Za'Darius Smith got 4 years $66 million and prior to last year he averaged like 3.5 sacks per year. 

 

Dee Ford got 5 years $87.5 million and before last year he was more down than up. 

EDGE guys get paid.. a lot. I'm not sure what his value will be but I am sure he can get overpaid in the open market. Especially of the 2020 FA class is weak at EDGE (no clue, I haven't looked). Im just not optimistic that Pace is going to overpay him when we are looking at Jackson, Tru, Whitehair, etc all looking for their big deals. 

 

 

[Heinz D.]

1 hour ago, Sugashane said:

That all being said, Ansah isn't worth breaking the bank for, Houston I'd go higher but I think he can get significantly more elsewhere, the only place I believed would get the discount was KC. 

Ansah isn't worth opening the wallet for. 

[Sugashane]

11 minutes ago, Heinz D. said:

Ansah isn't worth opening the wallet for. 

I'd throw a $7 mil offer on the table but thats pretty much my limit. He can get to the QB nut thats only when he is healthy. 4 sacks in 7 games and 12 or so prior to that. At 30 he isn't recovering faster either. 

 

Regardless I am drafting an EDGE this off-season and maybe early next one. 

[soulman]

2 hours ago, Sugashane said:

Trey Flowers just got 5 years $90 mil and he isn't a dominant passrusher, but a solid all around OLB like Floyd. 

 

Preston Smith got 4 years $52 mil and isn't better than Floyd IMO

 

Za'Darius Smith got 4 years $66 million and prior to last year he averaged like 3.5 sacks per year. 

 

Dee Ford got 5 years $87.5 million and before last year he was more down than up. 

EDGE guys get paid.. a lot. I'm not sure what his value will be but I am sure he can get overpaid in the open market. Especially of the 2020 FA class is weak at EDGE (no clue, I haven't looked). Im just not optimistic that Pace is going to overpay him when we are looking at Jackson, Tru, Whitehair, etc all looking for their big deals. 

 

 

Not saying he won't get paid but you're using 3 guys who just signed as FA in the open market.  I'm suggesting Floyd won't reach FA.

I'm also not gonna get into what he might get other than we know what his 5th year option will run and it's typically a good starting point for estimating what the AAV of a contract might be.  But ringing up numbers like that don't tell the whole story because few see all of that money anyway.

But we both know those are player bragging numbers and agent commission numbers whereas the most important number to any player is the GTD $$ and to the team the initial cap costs and contract structure so the team has a back door with an acceptable amount of dead cap vs salary or true cap.

There's always gonna be a chance we don't commit to any player but provided Floyd continues to remain healthy and play as he did in the second half of 2018 I believe Pace will have extended him before that 5th year option even kicks in because he'll be one of our best defensive players.

Getting away from specific deals we also estimate the cap will increase by about $12 mil to $200 mil in 2020 and then with luck a new CBA will be in force in 2021 that should also assure a significant increase in the cap and possibly other rules changes that may make cap management easier as the rookie pool/slotting and vet minimums did in the 2011 CBA.   We could easily see a 2021 cap in the $220-$225 mil range when the bigger money for Floyd, Jackson, and Mitch hit.  IMHO Whitehair will get an extension this summer much like Goldman did last summer since this is his contract year.

[soulman]

In this draft and in 2020 Pace will be looking at drafting players he hopes can take the place of aging and more expensive vets so we can also count on some of those larger cap hits disappearing and being replaced by lesser cap hits from guys still on their rookie deals.  On and on that cycle goes and I'll be the first to admit it's difficult to forecast accurately for us as fan but I can also guarantee that it's not as difficult or Pace and Joey Laine.

Anyway, I'm not gonna worry about because I don't get paid to do it.  They do and they aren't cutting me in on their deals.  LOL

What will be will be but so far Pace's pattern has been to focus on keeping his own top players via extensions before they become FAs whenever possible and in the one instance where a former top pick did reach FA he matched the deal.  I believe him when he says he would have liked to have kept Amos and Callahan as well but they reached FA and priced themselves above what he was willing to pay and he saw other options.

Conversely by moving ahead prior to FA with Massie he got him locked up and saved himself a bundle over what others paid.

So I see this as a key moving forward.  Lock up guys you know you want to keep at positions that are most difficult to replace before they hit the open market.  Don't lowball them but don't overpay unless it's to match an offer you can live with which in that case is at least theoretically not overpaying since the market set their price.  So far Pace and Laine have proven to be astute cap managers so I'll keep riding with them until the they're not.

[Heinz D.]

12 hours ago, Sugashane said:

I'd throw a $7 mil offer on the table but thats pretty much my limit. He can get to the QB nut thats only when he is healthy. 4 sacks in 7 games and 12 or so prior to that. At 30 he isn't recovering faster either. 

I'd rather re-sign Lynch for less than that, or roll the dice on a rookie. Ansah has been inconsistent and unreliable his entire career. 

10 hours ago, soulman said:

Getting away from specific deals we also estimate the cap will increase by about $12 mil to $200 mil in 2020 and then with luck a new CBA will be in force in 2021 that should also assure a significant increase in the cap and possibly other rules changes that may make cap management easier as the rookie pool/slotting and vet minimums did in the 2011 CBA.   We could easily see a 2021 cap in the $220-$225 mil range when the bigger money for Floyd, Jackson, and Mitch hit.  IMHO Whitehair will get an extension this summer much like Goldman did last summer since this is his contract year.

I think you're going to end up being right about all of that, and I'm willing to bet that Pace is seeing the future just as you are. A much bigger cap, and a friendlier, more reasonable structure due to a new CBA. It would be nice if the league could simply admit that they want to pay good quarterbacks top dollar, and not (essentially) penalize teams for having them. 

9 hours ago, soulman said:

Anyway, I'm not gonna worry about because I don't get paid to do it.  They do and they aren't cutting me in on their deals.  LOL

Awww...you're no fun! 

[soulman]

53 minutes ago, Heinz D. said:

I'd rather re-sign Lynch for less than that, or roll the dice on a rookie. Ansah has been inconsistent and unreliable his entire career. 

I think you're going to end up being right about all of that, and I'm willing to bet that Pace is seeing the future just as you are. A much bigger cap, and a friendlier, more reasonable structure due to a new CBA. It would be nice if the league could simply admit that they want to pay good quarterbacks top dollar, and not (essentially) penalize teams for having them. 

Awww...you're no fun! 

I wouldn't mind bringing Lynch back.  Injuries issues are more of a concern with him than his performance.  Overall he played well.  One other I mentioned whose proven to be a good overall rotation guy is Shaquil Barrett and Windy suggested Cassius Marsh another high motor guy who can rush as well.

One thing seems certain to me and that is signing more OLB help is higher on his list than what to do about Howard and it's also a good draft for OLBs so if he's not able to improve that spot as much as he likes in FA he may prioritize it over RB, SS, or CB in the draft.  He knows he needs more than just Irving and Fitts.

The NFLPA will be pushing for a larger piece of the revenue pie than the 47% to 48.5% range they've been in since 2011.  That alone could add $10-$20 mil to the base cap along with the usual 5%-6% increase in the base amount so that's another $10-$12 mil.  If we subtract some of the deals of aging vets with high cap numbers who aren't likely to be with us in 2021 we should be fine and have plenty of room to absorb new deals for Floyd, Jackson, and Trubisky and still add other FAs.

But to do it Pace needs to keep drafting well especially in rounds 2-5 where most of his core guys will come from.

[malagabears]

12 hours ago, soulman said:

Not saying he won't get paid but you're using 3 guys who just signed as FA in the open market.  I'm suggesting Floyd won't reach FA.

I'm also not gonna get into what he might get other than we know what his 5th year option will run and it's typically a good starting point for estimating what the AAV of a contract might be.  But ringing up numbers like that don't tell the whole story because few see all of that money anyway.

But we both know those are player bragging numbers and agent commission numbers whereas the most important number to any player is the GTD $$ and to the team the initial cap costs and contract structure so the team has a back door with an acceptable amount of dead cap vs salary or true cap.

There's always gonna be a chance we don't commit to any player but provided Floyd continues to remain healthy and play as he did in the second half of 2018 I believe Pace will have extended him before that 5th year option even kicks in because he'll be one of our best defensive players.

Getting away from specific deals we also estimate the cap will increase by about $12 mil to $200 mil in 2020 and then with luck a new CBA will be in force in 2021 that should also assure a significant increase in the cap and possibly other rules changes that may make cap management easier as the rookie pool/slotting and vet minimums did in the 2011 CBA.   We could easily see a 2021 cap in the $220-$225 mil range when the bigger money for Floyd, Jackson, and Mitch hit.  IMHO Whitehair will get an extension this summer much like Goldman did last summer since this is his contract year.

The reason I don't see us getting Houston is twofold:

1. He probably thinks he has more than enough in the tank to be a very good to possibly dominant edge rusher to start on most playoff teams needing that final piece. If he insists on starting which I think is the case what are we going to do bump Floyd to a rotational role, methinks not.

2. Based on point 1 I think Houston is looking for at least 13-15M AAV minimum on a 3 year deal.

[soulman]

25 minutes ago, malagabears said:

The reason I don't see us getting Houston is twofold:

1. He probably thinks he has more than enough in the tank to be a very good to possibly dominant edge rusher to start on most playoff teams needing that final piece. If he insists on starting which I think is the case what are we going to do bump Floyd to a rotational role, methinks not.

2. Based on point 1 I think Houston is looking for at least 13-15M AAV minimum on a 3 year deal.

Unless he's simply not getting offers in that range on a multi-year deal I don't know why he would even consider a one year deal and we don't have much else to offer other than that or maybe two at most.  We can't pay 3 OLBs top tier money and I don't see Houston ever replacing Floyd.

What we have to offer is another deal similar to the one we gave Lynch.  One year, maybe $3-$5 mil tops or maybe a little cheaper deal for 2 yrs at $3-$3.5 mil each with some guarantees.  Definitely the territory for second tier guy looking for work who could do well playing in a top ten defense.

[beardown3231]

2 hours ago, soulman said:

I wouldn't mind bringing Lynch back.  Injuries issues are more of a concern with him than his performance.  Overall he played well.  One other I mentioned whose proven to be a good overall rotation guy is Shaquil Barrett and Windy suggested Cassius Marsh another high motor guy who can rush as well.

One thing seems certain to me and that is signing more OLB help is higher on his list than what to do about Howard and it's also a good draft for OLBs so if he's not able to improve that spot as much as he likes in FA he may prioritize it over RB, SS, or CB in the draft.  He knows he needs more than just Irving and Fitts.

The NFLPA will be pushing for a larger piece of the revenue pie than the 47% to 48.5% range they've been in since 2011.  That alone could add $10-$20 mil to the base cap along with the usual 5%-6% increase in the base amount so that's another $10-$12 mil.  If we subtract some of the deals of aging vets with high cap numbers who aren't likely to be with us in 2021 we should be fine and have plenty of room to absorb new deals for Floyd, Jackson, and Trubisky and still add other FAs.

But to do it Pace needs to keep drafting well especially in rounds 2-5 where most of his core guys will come from.

Barrett signed with the Bucs

[Madmike90]

Vinny Curry is still out there too...not a great option but could be solid as a 3.