NFL DRAFT RUMOR THREAD

[Dr LBC]

 

[goldfishwars]

The Chiefs got hosed.

[CWood21]

12 hours ago, N4L said:

I cant help but LOL everytime I see a packers fan say this, knowing that Ted Thompson isnt their GM anymore.

I mean, they probably wont trade up considering they have two FRPs and its a pretty deep draft, but acting like they would never because their former GM never did just makes me laugh.

In fact, Id argue that Gute deliberately went out of his way last year to do something that Thompson never did, which was spend money on a FA... the only problem was he did it for a washed up Jimmy Graham (who was never all that talented anyways imo just happened to be tall and able to catch and played in the perfect offense with the most accurate QB of all time in Brees)

Teams who feel like they should be competing for SBs might try and go get a guy they like. I dont anticipate them trading up with their initial first round pick, but I could absolutely see a scenario where they move up from #30 a few spots after there is a run on a certain position, especially considering that a lot of people think this draft is deep in the middle rounds and are therefore more willing to move back initially for 'less than market value' that still nets them a nice mid round pick. 

Its just funny as hell and now one of the things I'm rooting to see on Thursday (a packers trade up).

Wait, Ted Thompson isn't the Packers' GM anymore?  You don't say.  The fact is that Brian Gutekunst comes from the TT tree.  While Gute hasn't more of a willingness to be active in FA, that doesn't mean he's going to completely abandon his principles that he learned from TT and by extension Ron Wolf.  A trade up to 7 would require a 3rd and 4th round pick using the Rich Hill trade value chart.  But the problem is Devin White substantially better than Devin Bush?  No, so there's really not anyone worth trading up when you can move up later for Bush.  Is there a better player available?  

Either way, I'm pretty sure Gute has pretty much already said he doesn't like trading up as a matter of principle.  You limited your flexibility if you move up.  Look at the Seahawks last year, they lacked a second and third round pick, which meant if they picked at their original first round selection they were going nearly 100 picks without making a selection.

Besides, this mock is way too trade happy.  Bengals don't trade up.  Packers don't usually trade up from their original selection.

[CWood21]

2 hours ago, goldfishwars said:

I remember Packers fans saying Green Bay would never draft a sub 6ft corner as it's not Ron Wolf way and yet Jaire Alexander became the first pick of the Gutekunst era. Could it be that this fabled philosophy stuff is a little overblown? Especially as you admit, Thompson was his own man from a FA perspective. 

Jaire Alexander missed the treshold by like like a half an inch.  If you don't see the difference between that and trading up for a non-premium position.  He's still from the TT tree.

[N4L]

5 minutes ago, CWood21 said:

Wait, Ted Thompson isn't the Packers' GM anymore?  You don't say.  The fact is that Brian Gutekunst comes from the TT tree.  While Gute hasn't more of a willingness to be active in FA, that doesn't mean he's going to completely abandon his principles that he learned from TT and by extension Ron Wolf.  A trade up to 7 would require a 3rd and 4th round pick using the Rich Hill trade value chart.  But the problem is Devin White substantially better than Devin Bush?  No, so there's really not anyone worth trading up when you can move up later for Bush.  Is there a better player available?  

Either way, I'm pretty sure Gute has pretty much already said he doesn't like trading up as a matter of principle.  You limited your flexibility if you move up.  Look at the Seahawks last year, they lacked a second and third round pick, which meant if they picked at their original first round selection they were going nearly 100 picks without making a selection.

Besides, this mock is way too trade happy.  Bengals don't trade up.  Packers don't usually trade up from their original selection.

I have no problem with your reasoning, but Gute doesn't have a track record to lean on right now. I think everything is on the table. 

as for the bolded, part of my post stated that because this draft is deeper in the middle rounds, teams are going to be more willing to trade back for less than 'market compensation'. Everyone these days wants to trade down and get more picks. everyone. As such, trade ups are going to be cheaper than they were in the past. 

[brushmyhair]

1 hour ago, SBLIII said:

lol he lost all credibility he thought he had with the Bosa news.

Think he meant to say Frank Clark 

[KingOfNewYork]

10 minutes ago, CWood21 said:

Jaire Alexander missed the treshold by like like a half an inch.  If you don't see the difference between that and trading up for a non-premium position.  He's still from the TT tree.

Just because he's from the tree doesn't mean he's a root. 

He could be a branch and fall off and do his own thing or a leaf that flies away and just does whatever. 

[CWood21]

1 minute ago, N4L said:

I have no problem with your reasoning, but Gute doesn't have a track record to lean on right now. I think everything is on the table. 

as for the bolded, part of my post stated that because this draft is deeper in the middle rounds, teams are going to be more willing to trade back for less than 'market compensation'. Everyone these days wants to trade down and get more picks. everyone. As such, trade ups are going to be cheaper than they were in the past. 

I mean, in theory any team could bunk their history and do something out of the norm.  It's bad for business to trade up as a standard.  Does having an extra FRP make that more possible?  Sure.  But it's far more likely that 30 is the pick that's going to  be moved rather than 12.  Odds are the difference between 7 and 12 likely doesn't see two different tiers of players available, so you don't trade up when a tier is still flush with talent.  Is Devin White a more valuable player than say Brian Burns?  For the Packers, probably not.  So we've traded a pair of picks (say our 3rd and 4th round pick) to move up to get someone who has similar value at 12.  It'd be one thing if the Packers took Devin White at 12 should he fall, but I think you can put the odds of a trade up for an ILB at slightly above 0%.

Your last point is why I think you're more likely to see the Packers move up from 30 than it is for them to move up from 12.  In fact, it wouldn't surprise me if they made a small trade back from 12 (say with Washington at 15) for their 3rd round pick, and then use a combination of their "extra" picks to move up from 30.  If they walked away with a pairing of Brian Burns and Andre Dillard with their first two picks, that'd be a home run.

[CWood21]

1 minute ago, KingOfTheDot said:

Just because he's from the tree doesn't mean he's a root. 

He could be a branch and fall off and do his own thing or a leaf that flies away and just does whatever. 

There's a HUGE difference between a minor variation and going completely against the grain.  I'll go ahead and admit I'm wrong, but the biggest kind of move up from 12 that Gute might make is 2-3 spots tops.  And that's because recouping a 4th round pick is a LOT easier to recoup than a 2nd or 3rd.

[KingOfNewYork]

54 minutes ago, 49erurtaza said:

 

So the Jets are on the clock and the two guys worth trading up for are gone.

QWill, Oliver or Allen.

I think we go Oliver. Great prospect, limitless potential and best fit among the three.

[Nastradamus]

2 hours ago, CAS22 said:

Texans won't be trading up.  Too many holes right now with 5 OT options in the first round.  

That may be the worst roster in the league. Definitely no trade ups. 

[Nastradamus]

10 minutes ago, KingOfTheDot said:

So the Jets are on the clock and the two guys worth trading up for are gone.

QWill, Oliver or Allen.

I think we go Oliver. Great prospect, limitless potential and best fit among the three.

They're all good picks tbh. 

[Nastradamus]

I have no idea what the Chiefs are doing. Seahawks just set themselves up to build around the Russ contract. 

[PossibleCabbage]

9 minutes ago, CWood21 said:

There's a HUGE difference between a minor variation and going completely against the grain.  I'll go ahead and admit I'm wrong, but the biggest kind of move up from 12 that Gute might make is 2-3 spots tops.  And that's because recouping a 4th round pick is a LOT easier to recoup than a 2nd or 3rd.

I think that picking just outside the top 10 is kind of the value spot if you're not in position to snag one of the really elite players at the top, since the first year option for top 10 picks is calculated differently than for 11-32.  For top 10 guys it's the average of the top 10 salaries at your position, and for 11-32 it's the average of #3 and #25; so depending on position that's potentially a whole lot of money. 

So you're happy with who will be there at 12, you stick and pick.  If you move up from there, you have to be extra certain.

[jrry32]

30 minutes ago, goldfishwars said:

The Chiefs got hosed.

I don't get them trading Ford for a second and then doing this. Clark is better, but that much better? I'm happy, though. He gave Big Whit some problems. The ironic part of this is the Chiefs just acquired another woman-beater.

38 minutes ago, The LBC said:

Damnit!  I really didn't want the Seahawks being in the market for a new EDGE because they're actually a team the would go DGAF mode and take Polite in the 1st.

They're SPARQ crazy.