Geezy Posted March 12, 2020 Share Posted March 12, 2020 Higgins not participating was a big red flag for me, seems like he’s hiding something. Always liked him as a prospect. Ran the slow 40 in the past and has claimed he’s a 4.4 guy, why not prove it? So, if I had to pick one of the top guys I’d say Higgins or Shenault. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OG_C2X Posted March 12, 2020 Share Posted March 12, 2020 1 hour ago, BayRaider said: Agreed. CeeDee out of the Top 3 has the highest bust rate, not that I think he’ll bust. But I do think he’s more of a Upper Tier WR2 than a WR1. And that’s not a knock on CeeDee, there is only 11-12 WR1’s at any given time. As for 2nd-3rd Round WRs I think Shenault has the highest bust rate chance followed by Reagor. Shenault, to me, is not the playmaker some claim him to be. A lot of people in the draft section agree with that as well. I don’t see breakaway speed, and his elusiveness is really exaggerated (opinion). Reagor to me is a little stiff. I don’t see him as a good route runner. I don’t see much fluidity at all. Reagor at the next level to me is a Parris Campbell gadget type and a return specialist. I am not going to address anything but the bolded. Just my opinion. I may not be the majority. But I tend to think the public (other people on FF) are dumb. I made a killing (enough to open a bar, a restaurant and we are opening a resort in BelIze in June) betting sports. The base of my strategy was betting against the public, because the public is dumb. So when you use line like "a lot of people on this public forum agree with me" it does nothing but reinforce that you're wrong. Just my opinion. Take it or leave it. Just wanted to put that out there for you. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OG_C2X Posted March 12, 2020 Share Posted March 12, 2020 4 hours ago, BayRaider said: I have no issue admitting when I fully agree with you, despite the recent personal jabs at me for no reason. I fully agree Hurts is a Taysom Hill gadget guy. Would be interesting to see what Gruden can do with him. He’d also be a solid backup, which we have none currently. I’m one of the biggest advocates of Backup QB position on FF as a whole. It’s a very important position. I was not happy when we signed Mike Glennon last year. Not sure where I made personal jabs at you. But I didn't intend on offending you or jabbing at you. Sorry it came off as such 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BayRaider Posted March 12, 2020 Share Posted March 12, 2020 (edited) 2 minutes ago, OG_C2X said: I am not going to address anything but the bolded. Just my opinion. I may not be the majority. But I tend to think the public (other people on FF) are dumb. I made a killing (enough to open a bar, a restaurant and we are opening a resort in BelIze in June) betting sports. The base of my strategy was betting against the public, because the public is dumb. So when you use line like "a lot of people on this public forum agree with me" it does nothing but reinforce that you're wrong. Just my opinion. Take it or leave it. Just wanted to put that out there for you. I’ll comment solely on the betting part. Yes, you should usually fade the public. But make sure you fade the money. Not the amount of people. For example, 68% of people were on the Chiefs in the Super Bowl. However, 58% of the MONEY was on the 49ers. Always fade the “money”. Vegas will get it. Edited March 12, 2020 by BayRaider Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OG_C2X Posted March 12, 2020 Share Posted March 12, 2020 Just now, BayRaider said: I’ll comment solely on the betting on the part. Yes, you should usually fade the public. But make sure you fade the money. Not the amount of people. For example, 68% of people were on the Chiefs in the Super Bowl. However, 58% of the MONEY was on the 49ers. Always fade the “money”. Vegas will get it. As someone who made a career betting the NFL. I don't buy the whole "Vegas influences the outcomes in the NFL" narrative. I have seen plenty of "surefire locks" that are based on that theory and they bust so hard. I firmly believe betting against the public works, not because vegas influences the outcomes, but because that the public is dumb. Working for the Raiders and being on this forum simultaneously made me really realize how out of touch NFL fans are with the way the NFL actually functions and how off base the media is. I remember vic cotto reporting things as bonafide facts and then going to work the next day and nothing of the sort was true. Then thinking how does this guy have any credibility. It happened repeatedly. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Darbsk Posted March 12, 2020 Share Posted March 12, 2020 10 hours ago, agarcia34 said: Conversate?? Are they just making up words that sound silly?!?!? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Darbsk Posted March 12, 2020 Share Posted March 12, 2020 8 hours ago, big_palooka said: What WRs are going to bust? It's easy to get excited with this class, but we've see so many first round busts at WR. If you had to guess... So many good prospects but probably a few will bust due to situation, injuries etc. I can see Ruggs being taken high and not living up to his draft stock, maybe not outright busting. Shenault I can see excelling in the right setting but completely flopping in the wrong offence. I like him but he scares me. Reagor I'm not really a fan of, can see him busting due to lack of focus and potentially CBs playing him physical and not giving him a free release. Wary if he's a straight line athlete. Higgins has some question marks too though i think he'll be a solid receiver moving forward. Id say he's a mid risk of busting. I cant see Lamb or Jeudy busting at all. I think they work in pretty much every scheme and im not aware of a lack of effort, major character concerns etc. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Darbsk Posted March 12, 2020 Share Posted March 12, 2020 8 hours ago, BayRaider said: Also what do you guys think of Ross Blacklock? The 3T out of TCU. At 19 might be a little rich but maybe a slight trade down. Even at 19, I still think he’s in play. Some of you think he’s raw which is fair. He reminds me of Chris Jones. The first step and bullrush are other-worldly. He’s such a great fit for the scheme. I encourage you guys to check him out. I like Blacklock but 1st round is way too rich for me. I dont really see him in the Chris Jones mould as his qualities that struck me were his power, great punch and leverage he used to keep linemen off his chest. I thought he was immensely powerful with long levers and good hands. Blacklock I feel is more of a quick, disruptive type, almost like our own Maurice Hurst in that he wins with first step, burst and quickness rather than powering past IOL but can easily get washed out. I'm concerned as just like Hurst he seems to go missing and Im not sure if that's conditioning or a hot and cold motor. I like him but wouldn't look at him before the second round, he needs work on his leverage, technique and counters and Im not sure his ceiling is that high. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Raider Posted March 12, 2020 Share Posted March 12, 2020 I said a while back that I am a huge fan of Hurts and think he has a shot to be Dak 2.0. He's a guy I think makes a ton of sense for the Raiders. He has all the boxes checked when it comes to intangibles. He's a great leader, ton of experience in big games, loved by his teammates, and legitimately wants the best for his team regardless. He also has the athletic traits to put him on the higher end of NFL starters. His mechanics need work, but I think he's improved greatly every season he's played in that area alone. I am higher on him than most, but I would legitimately consider him in the late first or second round, his stock isn't that high so if we could come away with him in the 3rd even better. But he's a guy I think has legitimate franchise QB ability. An I'm aware that will be an unpopular opinion, but he's definitely worth the gamble in the 3rd in my eyes. I would certainly take him over Eason and Love (even more when you consider the value of all their current draft stock). I have seen far too many big, athletic, strong armed guys that lack the intangibles fail at the NFL level. I just haven't seen significant improvement year to year with either of those guys like I have with Hurts, I thought his play this past season showed real accuracy on his part. As it stands right now I'm pulling for an Oklahoma type of draft. Lamb is my preferred pick at 12 if he's available, there's a few guys I'd like at 19 but Murray is at or close to the top of that list, and Hurts is another guy I would absolutely take a chance on in the second or later. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chali21 Posted March 12, 2020 Share Posted March 12, 2020 Every year there’s a QB that goes higher than they should into the first, I think that Hurts has a chance to do that. It wouldn’t surprise me the Raiders took him at 19 tbh. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Raider Posted March 12, 2020 Share Posted March 12, 2020 In terms of which first round WR prospects I think have the highest bust rate I think Ruggs is at the top of my list. I've seen too many shorter, thin burners bust to have that much confidence in him. Especially when a lot of those guys had better production and lesser talent around them in college. I wouldn't take him in the first personally. He'll find at least some success as a Ted Ginn type of deep threat that makes a handful of big plays each year, but I don't see as much potential to be the consistent, reliable, go to guy you should be expecting in the first round. Shenault is another with a high bust percentage, partly medical, partly because I don't see a defined route tree. He could end up being a guy you have to scheme open consistently, and that isn't worthy of a first round pick IMO. I like Higgins a lot more than most, but him not participating at all does give me some pause. I don't think you have to be an elite athlete to be a top WR in the NFL, but there is a reasonable line you have to be able to reach athletically, particularly to be a legit #1 WR. I worry he feared he would time well below that. I'd still have him in play for 19 because I see the traits to be a top tier WR, but I like him a little less for not participating at all. Lamb is the safest IMO, Jeudy second in terms of my confidence of them living uo to their draft stock as first round WR selections. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oakdb36 Posted March 12, 2020 Share Posted March 12, 2020 Higgins 4.43 unofficial at Clemson's pro day. That's probably a 4.5 at the combine but that's fast enough. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Raider Posted March 12, 2020 Share Posted March 12, 2020 37 minutes ago, oakdb36 said: Higgins 4.43 unofficial at Clemson's pro day. That's probably a 4.5 at the combine but that's fast enough. That more than answers that question. He's not a guy that wins with blazing speed but if he would have ran a 4.6 or something I'd have to reevaluate what I saw on tape. With that time he's squarely back in the conversation at 19, and in most classes would be the cream of the crop IMO. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCOUGHMAN Posted March 12, 2020 Share Posted March 12, 2020 46 minutes ago, oakdb36 said: Higgins 4.43 unofficial at Clemson's pro day. That's probably a 4.5 at the combine but that's fast enough. Check Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Darbsk Posted March 12, 2020 Share Posted March 12, 2020 1 hour ago, oakdb36 said: Higgins 4.43 unofficial at Clemson's pro day. That's probably a 4.5 at the combine but that's fast enough. That will dispel a few rumours and answer a few pertinent questions at least. A little surprised he got into the 4.4s but good for him. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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