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How much would Justin Tucker cost in a trade?


brownie man

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Tucker is the kind of guy where in a trade scenario, no team is going to be willing to give up what he is worth to a team that already has him. Especially if we're talking draft picks. The team trading him is going to see the potential in the draft pick at a higher value position as higher than even an elite kicker. While Baltimore won't be able to fathom giving up someone so elite and reliable for something speculative. The value is just going to seem different depending on which side you're looking at it from, and two sides would never be able to meet and agree.

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23 hours ago, SkippyX said:

The 1998 Vikings or the 1990 Bills would give you their entire drafts for him.

See, I hate this argument for K value. Missed field goals are honestly kind of just random. Having an elite K doesn't mean they won't miss an important kick. A kicker that misses 1 field goal all year may only miss the most important one, while a kicker that misses 5 may have never actually impacted a game result.  It's kind of random like that. You just have lower odds of a high impact miss.

Like, the 98 Vikings had an all-pro K. Anderson didn't miss that year in the regular season. After week 17, they wouldn't have traded Anderson for any K in NFL history. His one miss just wound up being a hugely important one. Subbing in Tucker doesn't mean that doesn't happen. It isn't like Anderson missed that field goal because he was a bad kicker. He was a great kicker. That just happened to be the one he whiffed on. Could've happened to any other great kicker as well.

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4 minutes ago, Jakuvious said:

See, I hate this argument for K value. Missed field goals are honestly kind of just random. Having an elite K doesn't mean they won't miss an important kick. A kicker that misses 1 field goal all year may only miss the most important one, while a kicker that misses 5 may have never actually impacted a game result.  It's kind of random like that. You just have lower odds of a high impact miss.

Like, the 98 Vikings had an all-pro K. Anderson didn't miss that year in the regular season. After week 17, they wouldn't have traded Anderson for any K in NFL history. His one miss just wound up being a hugely important one. Subbing in Tucker doesn't mean that doesn't happen. It isn't like Anderson missed that field goal because he was a bad kicker. He was a great kicker. That just happened to be the one he whiffed on. Could've happened to any other great kicker as well.

You should send that over to Matt Nagy.

https://www.si.com/nfl/2019/08/21/chicago-bears-kicker-competition-obsession-cody-parkey-miss-matt-nagy-eddy-pineiro

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  • 3 weeks later...
On 8/20/2019 at 3:35 PM, Danger said:

No, because you can always find a serviceable kicker. And the difference between a serviceable kicker and a good one is nearly negligible.

lol.

Vikings fans laugh in your face. This franchise has been plagued by kickers forever. I'd kill to have a serviceable kicker for a long period. 

 

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45 minutes ago, Daniel said:

Just gonna point out that the kicker the Titans picked up off waivers a week ago was 5 of 5 on extra points, and 2 of 2 for field goals today, including a 53 yarder.

Please continue to argue that trading an early pick for a kicker makes sense though.

We'll revisit this when you miss the playoffs because your kicker missed a FG to send you to the playoffs. 

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Justin Tucker is very good. But kickers really vary from year to year. For example, Aldrick Rosas had a very good 2018, was it that much worse than Tucker’s 2018? How much would you give up for him?

What about Greg Zuerlein in 2017? How was he in 2018?  A good kicker is worth maybe a fourth rounder. Never a first. 

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51 minutes ago, Daniel said:

Just gonna point out that the kicker the Titans picked up off waivers a week ago was 5 of 5 on extra points, and 2 of 2 for field goals today, including a 53 yarder.

Please continue to argue that trading an early pick for a kicker makes sense though.

Jets lost a game because of the kicker they picked up on waivers... so that cancels out right?

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1 minute ago, nextsuperstar1 said:

Justin Tucker is very good. But kickers really vary from year to year. For example, Aldrick Rosas had a very good 2018, was it that much worse than Tucker’s 2018? How much would you give up for him?

What about Greg Zuerlein in 2017? How was he in 2018?  A good kicker is worth maybe a fourth rounder. Never a first. 

The reason Tucker is valuable is that he’s had many seasons in a row that are comparable to his 2018. 

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On 8/22/2019 at 3:48 PM, Jakuvious said:

See, I hate this argument for K value. Missed field goals are honestly kind of just random. Having an elite K doesn't mean they won't miss an important kick. A kicker that misses 1 field goal all year may only miss the most important one, while a kicker that misses 5 may have never actually impacted a game result.  It's kind of random like that. You just have lower odds of a high impact miss.

Like, the 98 Vikings had an all-pro K. Anderson didn't miss that year in the regular season. After week 17, they wouldn't have traded Anderson for any K in NFL history. His one miss just wound up being a hugely important one. Subbing in Tucker doesn't mean that doesn't happen. It isn't like Anderson missed that field goal because he was a bad kicker. He was a great kicker. That just happened to be the one he whiffed on. Could've happened to any other great kicker as well.

This argument is literally no different for any other position. You can point out one game sample sizes for any position to try and argue their worth. You have to look at the long term.

As far as Tucker goes, he is a known product whose FG% essentially never changes. He will most likely end up the GOAT kicker when he is retired. I understand being risk averse because less established kickers can have wildly different seasons from to the next but Tucker doesn't. Tucker is absolutely worth a 1st.

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15 minutes ago, nextsuperstar1 said:

Three years. He’s had three great years. 

 

UH... no. Tucker has been great EVERY SINGLE YEAR. All 7.

In his two worst percentage seasons COMBINED, he missed ONE kick under 50 yards. Even when his percentage is lower, it's because the Ravens threw him out in crazy long "why not?" situations at the end of halves.

EDIT: Check the splits, bro: https://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/T/TuckJu00.htm

The only under 40 kick he's missed since 2013 was because the San Francisco turf broke.

Edited by wackywabbit
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