Jump to content

College Football and NFL Draft Discussion


candyman93

Recommended Posts

2 hours ago, big poppa pump said:

Tyler Johnson from Minny as your 24th best WR is a total miscarriage of justice.  That kid is going in the top 3 rounds.

He's not a "Pro-Bowl Upside, High Quality Immediate Starter."

He's not a "High Quality Developmental Starter."

He is a "Quality Developmental Starter."

Good player. Smooth, but I just don't see he or Brandon Aiyuk as highly as the rest of the draftnik community, and I ranked the WRs independently  of other lists.

I was surprised to see him ranked so highly.

I think it's arguable that he could be moved up to 19 or so, but him being where he's ranked speaks to how special this class is.

Who rank-19 and above is he better than?

I can't see who.... Ball don't lie.

19 hours ago, Mind Character said:

Pro-bowl Upside, High Quality Immediate Starters: 1.) CeeDee Lamb, WR Oklahoma, 2.) Jerry Jeudy, WR Alabama, 3.) Michael Pittman Jr., WR USC, 4.) DeVonta Smith, WR Alabama, 5.) Henry Ruggs, WR Alabama, 6.) Jalen Reagor, WR TCU, 7.) Justin Jefferson, WR LSU, 8.) Bryan Edwards, WR South Carolina , 9.) Tee Higgins, WR Clemson, 10.) Denzel Mims, WR Baylor, 11.) Laviska Shenault Jr., WR Colorado, 12.) Jauan Jennings, WR Tennessee,

High Quality Developmental Starters: 13.) Donovan Peoples-Jones, WR Michigan, 14.) KJ Hamer, WR Penn State, 15.) Quintez Cephus, WR Wisonsin, 16.) Joe Reed, WR Virginia, 17.) Kendrick Rogers, WR TAMU, 18.) Gabriel Davis, WR UCF, 19.) Isaiah Wright, WR Temple, 20.) Tylan Wallace, WR Oklahoma State, 21.) Lynn Bowden Jr., WR Kentucky,

Quality Developmental Starters: 22.) Brandon Aiyuk, WR Arizona State, 23.) Antonio Gibson, WR Memphis, 24.) Tyler Johnson, WR Minnesota 25.) Collin Johnson, WR Texas, 26.) John Hightower, WR Boise State 27.) James Proche, WR SMU, 28.) Sage Surratt, WR Wake Forest, 29.) Tyler Vaughns, WR USC, 30.) Trishton Jackson, WR Syracuse

 

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

5 minutes ago, candyman93 said:

So many good WRs. 
 

Collin Johnson is a late round guy I want.

I'd be all for it. His length/size is something that could make for interesting Red Zone situations and he could develop into a solid outside WR. He had a great year last year and this year just didn't click for him or anyone else on the team for that matter.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I was really hoping we wouldn’t need a WR, but I think given the strength of the class, it wouldn’t be the worst idea to grab one.

Plus, OBJ isn’t a bad dude or anything, but he’s a distraction.  When he’s at his peak, he’s worth every bit of it, but he wasn’t this past season.

Having a young talented dude in place to potentially replace him if he keeps up with the nonsense and mediocre production isn’t the worst option.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

3 hours ago, BleedTheClock said:

I've read and seen just the opposite. If Kmet could block, he'd be my sure-fire 2nd round pick.

I guess I should’ve been more clear. I feel he’s a good help blocker. Yes, he can get shedded alone. But with the right coaching I think he can be very good. To me, he has the potential to be as good as Rudolph. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, Mind Character said:

He's not a "Pro-Bowl Upside, High Quality Immediate Starter."

He's not a "High Quality Developmental Starter."

He is a "Quality Developmental Starter."

Good player. Smooth, but I just don't see he or Brandon Aiyuk as highly as the rest of the draftnik community, and I ranked the WRs independently  of other lists.

I was surprised to see him ranked so highly.

I think it's arguable that he could be moved up to 19 or so, but him being where he's ranked speaks to how special this class is.

Who rank-19 and above is he better than?

I can't see who.... Ball don't lie.

 

Walters has him as 10th best

Drafttek 6th

CBS 10th

Draft Network 12th

 

6ft 2 205...not blazing, but fast enough...and smooth

Link to comment
Share on other sites

17 hours ago, big poppa pump said:

Walters has him as 10th best

Drafttek 6th

CBS 10th

Draft Network 12th

 

6ft 2 205...not blazing, but fast enough...and smooth

I wouldn't trust that most of those places have watched this year's games and updated their evaluations man.  Most of those places are really cool places to get a list of names, but detailed evaluations that incorporate this last season's 3rd year and 4th year athletes are still far out from being posted.

Draft Network consists of various draftniks of which when you go to Tyler Johnson's specific profile, the last update was on 7/26/19 for 3 out of 5 of their primary analyst. The vast majority of their other analyst only have a Wide Receiver rank list that goes to a top 10 or 15 and almost all include the big names that we all thought would be on the list before the seasons started (like Tyler Johnson).

CBS lags so far behind and their evaluations cannot be trusted until Matt Miller and Dane Brugler make their big push to really watch and rank players around early March. They have really hard and difficult jobs of trying to paint and illustrate strengths of the entire draft crop at this time so admittedly they make it known that they don't start digging in detail until much later in the process. They had Orlando Brown Jr as a top 10 pick at OT for the longest of times.

Draft Tek has Trey Adams over Josh Jones, Mekhi Becton, Prince Tega Wanogho, Terrance Steele, Isaiah Wilson. They have a wide variety of other puzzling rankings that suggest that they aren't close to doing an up to date full evaluative coverage of the wide receivers.

Walterfootball has Tristan Wirfs going 26th and Austin Jackson top 12. It is a nice place to get names but over the years I know for a fact that their rankings take giant swings as we get into late February and early March when they start taking into account other people's opinions that actually watch prospects in detail or they themselves start to watch things. All you need to know about their WR rankings is that they have Denzel Mims 42nd (42nd!!!),Bryan Edwards 18th, Jauan Jennings 25th, and  people like Stephen Guidry of all people 17th. Madness. They aren't doing full coverage on the Wide-Receivers yet man, there's just no way.

-----

I'm telling you man... by the time we get to April and most of those websites start to really vet the Juniors, then when they calibrate their rankings to PFF and the big wig draftnik rankings, I have no doubt that Tyler Johnson will be much further down. There's a lot of Wide Receivers to work through. I trust my evaluation. As I said, who 17th and above on my list is Tyler Johnson better than film-wise? If you set out to answer that yourself I have no doubt that you would find that a lot of those sites rankings are off on a lot of guys.

For a comprehensive database on Senior prospects, list of namescheck out draftscout.com. Then, on your own you can rank the Junior prospects. Tyler Johnson is their 12th rated senior Wide-receiver.

Lastly, 2 players on my list have returned to school leaving Tyler Johnson to be the 22nd WR on my list, but I think it's arguable that he could be as high as 17th. When April rolls around I'm will to bet that Johnson will bet that unanimously Tyler Johnson will be as low as the 15th or 17th rated Wide-Receiver at least in the minds of draftniks that actually update themselves with all the tape from this year.

If either of us remember (which we probably won't or won't care), we can bring it up later to see how people's evaluations change on Johnson. I'm willing to bet mine will stay consistent and others' will be less and less high on him.

Edited by Mind Character
Link to comment
Share on other sites

On 1/16/2020 at 6:26 PM, candyman93 said:

I’m hopping off the AJ Epenesa pick at 10 bandwagon. The best decision for this team is Tristan Wirfs.

 

I’m all in on Wirfs at 10 and somehow drafting Isiah Swann from Dartmouth later on.

With Stefanski hired, there is no better merger between team positional needs, prospect ability, and prospect familiarity of scheme than Tristan Wirfs.

Kirk Ferentz is one of the 3 main originators innovators of the zone run-pass scheme along with Alex Gibbs and then Mike Shanahan.

I've made the point ad nauseam that Wirfs is a Guard but that was simply because most schemes don't utilize their Tackles to his ability strengths. However, in the zone run-pass scheme and what it requires of it's Tackles Wirfs' abilities will shine bright if selected in that role.

Interestingly, the most important positions on a zone run-pass team are Center then Guard then Tackle. The center has the widest reach and stretch block area and their decisions effect the Guards and Tackles tremendously. I wonder if JC is the longterm solution a Stefanski would like. No matter what when the dust settles on evaluating prospects, the Browns are likely to have Wirfs rated as a top 5 prospect.

At the combine Wirfs, Wills, and Thomas are going to test off the charts. What are we willing to give up to make sure we get one of them? Ultimately that's going to be the question the Browns have to answer as the trio won't likely make it to us imo. I think a 3rd would feel costly, but it might be what we need to do.

Edited by Mind Character
  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

You bring up interesting points and it pains me to agree with you.

That said if you draft the next Joe Thomas and your team only wins 5 games you have to ask yourself if it is worth drafting a tackle when you could win more games by drafting a wr like Jeudy.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 hours ago, MistaBohmbastic said:

How crazy would it be if the big 3 OT go before 10 and the Mekhi Becton is the Browns'  pick? Cus I'm starting to believe this is becoming a more and more realistic scenario that could be solidified come combine time.

... man oh man....

... I see this scenario (the big 3 off the board) as literally the most likely scenario that I know is going to happen, but I dread what the Browns decision will be...

Ultimately, what it comes down to is could we afford to take a developmental starter at a need position with huge upside and serious deficiencies like Becton at 10 OVER ready-made Stars at their positions like CeeDee Lamb, WR Oklahoma and Jerry Jeudy, WR Alabama ? Or Becton over lesser but still highly talented players like Isaiah Simmons, LB/Box-Hybrid Clemson, AJ Epenesa, DE Iowa, or Derrick Brown, NT Auburn?

To me, it would be far wiser to trade down from 10 (maybe more than once even) and take a gamble on 1 of the 2nd-tier group of Tackles like Isaiah Wilson, RT Georgia, Prince Tega-Wanogho, LT Auburn, Jack Driscoll, RT Auburn, and Josh Jones, RT Houston later in the 1st round.

Honestly, Becton is getting a ton of love currently all over the place. Daniel Jeremiah called him a top 10 guy on Rich Eisen's show although Jeremiah admits he hasn't gotten close to working through most of the players yet.

The Tackle everyone has forgotten about because he was injured/missed a lot of games and his teammate Andrew Thomas gets all the attention is Isaiah Wilson, RT Georgia. He's every bit the mountain of the man and power player that Becton is except he has better feet, better technique, is a better lateral mover, better agility, and the superior player. He does have his deficiencies of course. If we MUST take a Tackle at 10, Isaiah Wilson is the guy to gamble on not Mekhi Becton.

In terms of the prioritization of what we should do if we're in such a dilemma where the big 3 are all off the board It would be: 1.) Select CeeDee Lamb, 2.) AJ Epenesa, 3.) Trade Down for next tier of Tackles/Wide Receivers and accrue multiple draft capital assets, 4.) Isaiah Simmons, 5.) Isaiah Wilson, 6.) Derrick Brown, 7.) Jerry Jeudy, 8.) Mekhi Becton

Becton is the ultimate BOOM or BUST pick.... a mountain... insane power makes college players look like high schoolers... vice grip size of lunch box hands .. bad technique... bad blocking instincts .... coordinated but slow mover with slow and sloppy feet ... plays high and doesn't use leverage ... destroyer of worlds in the running game... destroyer of worlds when he plays sound and with controlled aggression... on the ground too much... has serious horizontal movement scheme limitations.. not a lot of snaps against top competition or rushers... when he does go against them the deficiencies get exposed ... etc...

.. Watching Becton is so similar to the feeling of watch the behemoth mountain power player Ereck Flowers coming out of Miami. Becton has more natural balance and body control, but almost in every other category their play traits manifest on film the same.... I remember then getting fooled into the size, power, highlight reel blocks, and domination against lesser athletes but being exposed against better defensive ends...

I see top 10 projection of skills development, but nowhere close to a player likely to maximize those skills or worth our 10th pick ... picking Becton would in my opinion show a lack of value-maximization understanding by our GM and a forcing of a pick for a need instead of best player available. As such Becton at 10 would be thoroughly disappointing. He could boom though.

Edited by Mind Character
  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

×
×
  • Create New...