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BStanRamFan

By BStanRamFan
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agarcia34

agarcia34

Posted
Posted
2 hours ago, agarcia34 said:

Derek Carr over 256.5 pass yards. 
 

KC without their best CB in a game where the Raiders should be playing catch up and throwing the ball. Weather is good as well. Risky cause his stats in KC have been awful but I like this spot for him to be able to get the passing yards 

This died in this 1st qtr

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drew39k

drew39k

Posted
Posted
2 hours ago, drew39k said:

Single game parlay question.

Saints vs jets.

Saints win

Kamara rush over 54

Kamara receive over 29

Kamara TD.

+340

I could cut the saints win part out and drop it to +260.

Thoughts?

 

Kamara only needs 10 rec yards for this to payout w/o the saints win. Still almost two quarters of football remaining. 

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11sanchez11

11sanchez11

Posted
Posted
6 hours ago, 11sanchez11 said:

My fav bets of the week are DAL -4.5 and LAC -9

Also have 49ers ML, Bucs/Bills U 54, SEA -8.5, Josh Jacobs U 58 rush, amongst other things

best week of the year for me

i think the bills/bucs under is the only straight/single bet i missed this week. 

also hit mike evans o 61, LAC -13.5 (+145), chubb u 71

parlay of KC, SEA, DAL, and LAC to win (+175)

parlay of DAL -4.5 + LAC -9.5 (+264)

hit two sgp parlays :

SEA +9.5, Lockett o 63, Russ O 237 (+465)

Kittle O 70, Jimmy O 200, 49ers -1.5 (+420)

missed a TD parlay and another SGP but that's it 

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Broncofan

Broncofan

Posted
Posted (edited)

OMG had a great day, but before the tally comes through, a few SNF plays:

A-Rod O2.5 pass TD's +170 2U -   He's going to try and cement the "I own you" narrative on CHI.  At +170, just too much value to pass up.

AJ Dillon O55.5 rush yards - I know Aaron Jones is back, but I think he gets a healthy dose. 

Darnell Mooney O3.5 catches - top target, I'll take this every day.

Allen Robinson O3.5 catches +120 1.5U - he's back, I think they'll feed him for 6-7 targets minimum

Mooney TD +350 / +3000 2+ (0.7U / 0.3U) - such good odds for their top target deep, and still gets looks.

Cole Kmet TD +650 / +9000 2+ (0.6U / 0.3U) - gotta take 1 prime time TE prop.

Amari Rodgers +1200 TD / +125000 2+ (0.4/0.2U) - with Randall Cobb out, a few more snaps for the 2nd A-Rod.  Love the A-Rod to A-Rod narrative lol.

 


This puts 8U at play, hoping to cap off an amazing Sunday....BOL!

Edited by Broncofan
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drew39k

drew39k

Posted
Posted
5 hours ago, drew39k said:

Kamara only needs 10 rec yards for this to payout w/o the saints win. Still almost two quarters of football remaining. 

Sad me... He never got those last 10 yards. Had a swing pass for 17 but he was behind the QB so it changed to a rush... Oooof.

 

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Broncofan

Broncofan

Posted
Posted
On 12/11/2021 at 12:27 AM, Broncofan said:

Damn had my post wiped out just as I was finishing, so here's my card: 

ATS/ML & RACE (0.5U for RACE's)

EARLY

LV team total over 17.5 +100 @ KC - they're a 10 pt dog, but the OU is now 49.0 and KC's team total is 29.5.   The LV team total should be 2 pts higher.   

BAL ML +150 (now +135), RACE to 20/25/EDIT SAT LATE PM - added RACE To 30 (+200 / +350 / +550) @ CLE - explained it earlier, but basically don't see Lamar Jackson throwing 4 more INT's.  Even worse, CLE is missing more guys on O, and thus can't take advantage of BAL's secondary problems.  TBH, tempted to take a 3rd RACE to 35 at +550, will consider for now (EDIT:  I took it).

LATE

DEN -10 (now -11) vs. DET - I was initially on DET +10, but so many injuries to their best O players, and they were missing their 2 top pass rushers, and now word that they've lost 2 more CB's, their starting ILB and their starting C.   Nothing but respect for DET, but this isn't a fair fight. 

EDIT LATE SAT PM - SF -1.5 @ CIN - CIN's OL starters are back, but so is Deebo Samuel.   While he may just be a decoy, having him back allows the run game and other pass game weapons to play better matchups.   This is needed with CIN's D - they throttle O's that focus on just 1-2 guys.   CIN's OL is still a problem vs. SF's pass rush, and Joe Mixon being dinged up really takes away the potential problems with SF's LB corps being down key guys.   I won't take RACE's since SF is a favorite.


TOTAL - 5.5U

 

PLAYER PROPS / LONGSHOT TD

EARLY

Dak Prescott O2.5 pass TD's +180 - this isn't a 50-50 prop, but the payout is calling this close to a 35 percent play.  I see it as more around 45 percent, so have to take a shot, esp with WFT's pass funnel D and him having all 3 top WR's back.

Trevor Lawrence O1.5 pass TD's +210 -  I put this as no better than 40 percent to hit, even against the TEN pass D.   But the payout is for a 30 percent play.   

Taysom Hill O56.5 rush yards 2U - NYJ has the worst run D by DVOA.   Kamara & Hill should feast in the run game.  I expect Kamara to get 15 rushes, and 6+ catches, but I also expect Hill to get 12+ runs himself, and he should blow through that rush total to a tune of 70+ yards. 

Marquise Brown O4.5 catches +110 - with Watkins and Bateman back, and BAL manufacturing touches for Brown with bubble screens.   I’ll go here instead of the yard totals facing another pass funnel D.  

Ceedee Lamb O5.5 catches +110 2U - Lamb only has failed to hit 6+ catches / 80+ yards when he's been hurt, or when Cedrick Wilson has to play a lot of slot WR snaps.   With Gallup & Cooper back, Lamb is set to play a TON of slot..again.   WFT's pass funnel D only makes this easier to take 2U. 

Austin Hooper O3.5 catches +150 4U - Njoku & Bryant are out.   The TE gets a ton of work.  Tempted to hit this for 4U TBH (it’s already +130)

Laquon Treadwell O32.5 rec yards - This is the one that makes me nervous because it's Laquon Treadwell (LOL).   But he's the main target vs. a pass funnel D / friendly script game.   Gotta take a stab here at that yardage 

Laquon Treadwell +650 TD / +7000 2+ (0.8U/0.3U) - if he burns me with a dropped TD, he burns me.  He's so likely to get at least 2+ targets in the RZ as top receiver though 

EDIT ADDED LATE SAT PM - Denzel Mims +700 TD / +8000 2+ (0.4U/0.1U) - this is all about 

LATE

Josh Allen O2.5 pass TD's +170 - TAM's missing 2 of their top safeties, and while they get their top 3 CB's back, they're still most vulnerable here.    Gotta take a shot at those odds

Cole Beasley O4.5 catches +100 - yes I got burned on MNF as NE stuck to man coverage.   TAM has the 2nd highest use of zone coverage on passing downs.  

Gabriel Davis TD +600 / +7000 2+ (0.6U / 0.3U) - with a pass funnel D, going to the WR matchup in the RZ that BUF looks for at least 2x a game 

EDIT ADDED LATE SAT PM - Saquon Barkley O56.5 rush yards - LAC's run D is improving, but that's a total that's way too low, even with NYG's meh OL.   

EDIT ADDED LATE SAT PM - Josh Palmer +350 / +3000 (0.6U/0.3U) - Mike Williams will get all the attention, and NYG's D is top 10 vs. #1 outside WR's, but #24 against the #2 WR, and #4 vs. RB's so I'm going with longshot other targets, specifically with Palmer, who gets almost 14 percent target share per snap when he's on the field (as opposed to just over 8 for Jared Guyton).    This also leads me to...

EDIT ADDED LATE SAT PM - Donald Parham +400 / +3500 (0.4U / 0.2U) - I'm disappointed we aren't getting +500 or better, but the bookies have wised up that he's still a part of their RZ plans.    Still, with Ekeler accounted for and no Keenan Allen, and the G-men very good at taking away the boundary #1 WR, that's going to have me take 2 shots on LAC TD's.

Sadly, Justin Herbert's prop still remains at O1.5 TD's, and it's -160, so no value there. 

TOTAL - 19U so far

 

PENDING PROPS (NOT OUT YET)

Justin Herbert TD props if Mike Williams plays - with Keenan Allen out, and NYG's pass D being decent, this will likely be close to even at O1.5 or major plus money at O2.5.  I'll take a stab on either as long as Williams plays. UPDATE SAT PM - O1.5 at -160.  Ugh, pass.  

Josh Palmer catch/yard props (if O3.5/O39.5 yards or less), TD props - the guy who will get more snaps if Allen is out, as long as the props aren't massively inflated, I'll go here.  So I really hope Mike Williams does play. - UPDATE SAT PM: STILL PENDING - would easily add yards/catches if it was O2.5 at plus money, or O34.5 yards or less.

Donald Parham TD props if +500 or better - same idea if Williams plays, Jared Cook still gets a ton of snaps, but Parham still gets RZ looks.   - ADDED SAT PM AT +400

Javonte Wiliams rush yard props O59.5 or better - hoping MG3 will play, and keep the rush totals down.  If MG3 plays, the props stay low, but I think MG3 isn't taking 50+ percent of the snaps and rushes like we saw before.   There's also the blowout potential for being really run heavy, so I'm crossing my fingers MG3 plays, and keept the totals low enough to really hammer. - ADDED SAT PM AT O67.5 rush yards, so only 1U play.

 

I'll also place a 0.5U parley on BAL ML / Taysom O56.5 rush yards / Hooper O3.5 recs / Treadwell O32.5 rec yards / Lamb O5.5 catches / Beasley O4.5 catches props for +7000 (so if all the early game props hit, I can hedge Beasley U4.5 catches too). 

 

So that puts me at 25U in play (and could add 1-2U more if Josh Palmer catch/yardage props come out later tomorrow, depending on how the early slate is going).   BOL!

 

2021 - WEEK 1 - WEEK 14 TNF:

ATS 38-39; 9-15 with RACE to 15/20/25/30 (underdogs only), net +21.9U profit (taking dog ML & RACE's really pays off even with barely going over 50 percent ATS).

Player props - 130-126, +22.3U profit (thank you 8U on D'Ernst Johnson Week 7 TNF vs. DEN at +money, 4U J-Taylor on Week 7 SNF @ SF, 4U Damien Harris on Week 11 TNF @ ATL, and now Ceedee Lamb Week 13 TNF @ NO 8.4U to win 9.4U)

TD - 17-52, but playing all longshot TD props, with Corey Davis +3300 2-TD hitting Week 1 & now Pat Friermuth +2500 2-TD Week 10,  and Lil'jordan Humphrey +1400 2U Week 13, makes this a +50.0U profit so far 

Net balance:  +94.2U

(Week 1 - +43.8U     Week 2 - -1.6U.    Week 3 - -1.3U     Week 4 - +12.2U   Week 5 - +9.0U  Week 6 - +8.2U   Week 7 - +15.7U  Week 8 - -18.6U <ouch>  Week 9 - +13.8U Week 10 - -4.6U Week 11 - +5.9U Week 12 - -20.5U <ugh>, Week 13 TNF - +33.1U, Week 14 - -1.0U )

 

19 hours ago, Broncofan said:

 

 

So the Javonte Williams props are out, and they're kinda in-between what I was hoping to see - O67.5 rushing yards.    MG3 is almost certainly going to play, but I'm of the mind Williams will get at least 12-15 rushes, and probably 3-4 receptions - and that's if it's a 65-35 split in Williams' favor.   I also think DEN is likely going to win going away.   So this is an easy play to back.

I've also added Saquon Barkley O56.5 rush yards - while the NYG OL has struggled to find him holes, it's still the LAC rush D.   CIN played without 2 starters last week, which contributed to Joe Mixon's misery.  At this low of a #, it may only take 1 big chunk play in 10+ tries, to get to this number. 

I did find TD props for Josh Palmer +350 / +3000 2+ (0.6U / 0.3U) .   Sadly, Donald Parham's TD props are set at +400/+3500, so I only took a 0.4U/0.2U bite there, given the value gain isn't as much as I hoped.  Finally, with the news that NYJ is missing both Corey Davis & Elijah Moore, I'll take a shot on Denzel Mims at +700 / +8000 2+ at 0.4U/0.1U, so those are 2U added to the longshot TD props.

Finally, I've added SF -1.5 with the news that Deebo Samuel is returning.   Even though they're missing their RB's, and even if he's a decoy - it allows SF to use all of their weapons against CIN, which is needed (can't just be 1-2 guys, CIN is very good at shutting that down).   With SF the favorite, can't really back RACE plays, there's no real value.   

This adds 5U to the Sunday card, which has been updated in the OP.  I'd still like to consider getting Josh Palmer catch/yardage props, but none are out (oh well).  BOL!

 

 

4 hours ago, Broncofan said:

Just added Justin Herbert O1.5 pass TD's at +100 live in-game after 0 TD's at the 1Q break.

 

3 hours ago, Broncofan said:

Even after his TD, Josh Palmer O35.5 at 21 yards - I just bet 4U here too.

 

What a Sunday for Player Props & a nice longshot TD day.....let's recap:

ATS/ML & RACE - the BAL failed comeback would have been sweet, a FG would have won me the +7000 parley along with the +150 1U ML bet, and the +350 RACE to 25.   Man, sooooo close, and with Lamar out and the worst start possible.   Oh well.    Went 2-2 ATS/ML with LV O17.5 losing, but DEN -10 and SF -1.5 winning,  with RACE 0-1, that's a -1.5U loss.   Still, with so many favorites covering, the best thing I did was not get heavily involved. 

PLAYER PROPS - the only props I whiffed on were 3/4 QB pass TD props and it was frankly unlucky to lose on Josh Allen and Dak Prescott, both had so many chances (while Justin Herbert hit easily live O1.5 after none at the 1Q break - and hit his 3+ I predicted).    Trevor Lawrence was a bad miss.   But every other prop hit - including all the multi-unit high-to-extreme confidence plays, and they all hit early in the 3Q or earlier (Live-in game Josh Palmer 4U O35.5 rec yards even though he was at 21 yards at the 1Q break, Austin Hooper O3.5 4U +150, Ceedee Lamb O5.5 2U +110,  Taysom Hill O55.5 2U was the only one that hit super late), as well as the single-unit props Marquise Brown O4.5 catches +110, Laquon Treadwell O32.5 rec yards, Cole Beasley O4.5 catches +100, Javonte Williams O67.5 rush yards, Saquon Barkley O55.5 rush yards - so with a 10-3 record and all 4 multi-unit props hitting, including 2 4U plays - that's a whopping 16.3U profit off a 19U risk - awesome!

LONGSHOT TD PROPS - 2-3 (Treadwell, Mims & Parham missed, only Parham got an EZ look) - with 4U risked, but since they were at +350 (Josh Palmer) and +650 (Gabriel Davis 2nd week in a row), both at 0.6U, makes for a nice 3.2U profit.  

Sunday ends up being amazing - 18.0U profit, and 17.0U for the week - and now >110U profit for the year.   Let's keep it going! 

2021 - WEEK 1 - WEEK 14 not including SNF/MNF:

ATS 40-41; 9-16 with RACE to 15/20/25/30 (underdogs only), net +20.4U profit (taking dog ML & RACE's really pays off even though I'm only at around 50-50, because I'm going dog-heavy ML & RACE's, not just ATS). 

Player props - 140-129, +39.5U profit (thank you 8U on D'Ernst Johnson Week 7 TNF vs. DEN at +money, 4U J-Taylor on Week 7 SNF @ SF, 4U Damien Harris on Week 11 TNF @ ATL, and now Ceedee Lamb Week 13 TNF @ NO 8.4U to win 9.4U)

TD - 19-55, but playing all longshot TD props, with Corey Davis +3300 2-TD hitting Week 1 & now Pat Friermuth +2500 2-TD Week 10,  and Lil'jordan Humphrey +1400 2U Week 13, makes this a +53.2U profit so far 

Net balance:  +113.1U

(Week 1 - +43.8U     Week 2 - -1.6U.    Week 3 - -1.3U     Week 4 - +12.2U   Week 5 - +9.0U  Week 6 - +8.2U   Week 7 - +15.7U  Week 8 - -18.6U <ouch>  Week 9 - +13.8U Week 10 - -4.6U Week 11 - +5.9U Week 12 - -20.5U <ugh>, Week 13 TNF - +33.1U, Week 14 - +17.0U )

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