Weekly Bets Thread

[Broncofan]

8 hours ago, adamq said:

For TNF I like Gesicki to score at +370 on FD.. even with his reduced role those odds are too good to pass up IMO. May even sprinkle a little on 2 TDs at +3000. 

The TE is such a good play vs. CIN at both Smythe / Gesicki’s number.  

[Broncofan]

The one boosted TD prop I’ll bite on would be if Tyreek Hill gets to +200 or better assuming Tua plays.  It’s right now at +130 to +140.      Tua & Hill have made no secret of targeting Eli Apple.   Won’t go crazy but it’s going to be the most fun prop to watch for given last years history between Tyreek & Apple.   

[JonStark]

37 minutes ago, MikeT14 said:

DK has the Up 7 promo tonight for Dolphins/Bengals. Def going Dolphins ML for it hoping it hits. 

I don't see the Dolphins winning the game, but I think I'm taking this too. All it takes is for them to get the ball first and use their scripted drive to go down the field once. 

[MikeT14]

4 minutes ago, JonStark said:

I don't see the Dolphins winning the game, but I think I'm taking this too. All it takes is for them to get the ball first and use their scripted drive to go down the field once. 

Bingo. Worth the risk. (Although I do think the Dolphins can win too)

[Broncofan]

48 minutes ago, MikeT14 said:

Bingo. Worth the risk. (Although I do think the Dolphins can win too)

I’m on this side I have them winning.   But it’s not by any means a lock.  At +170 the value is already there. At 7-pt autowin no brainer play 

[Broncofan]

Fwiw Tua is announced as likely to play. If you like the Fins IMO  the line is only going to move to them from now on. 
 

 

Edited September 29, 2022 by Broncofan

[Hunter2_1]

How does Kupp go against the 9ers?

Looking at a good bet for <54.5 Yards and 0 TD for him vs 9ers MNF

[LeotheLion]

56 minutes ago, Hunter2_1 said:

How does Kupp go against the 9ers?

Looking at a good bet for <54.5 Yards and 0 TD for him vs 9ers MNF

Usually pretty well. Especially if the 49ers defensive line eats. Stafford under duress tends to lock into Kupp and force him the ball. I wouldn't expect a monster day from him but he'll get his. On the same thought, I wouldn't think Allen Robinson gets going this week.

[Hunter2_1]

1 minute ago, LeotheLion said:

Usually pretty well. Especially if the 49ers defensive line eats. Stafford under duress tends to lock into Kupp and force him the ball. I wouldn't expect a monster day from him but he'll get his. On the same thought, I wouldn't think Allen Robinson gets going this week.

ergh, so he'll probably do well then. I wont take that bet.

[LeotheLion]

27 minutes ago, Hunter2_1 said:

ergh, so he'll probably do well then. I wont take that bet.

I think defensively the 49ers will play a game similar to the Bills week 1. Don't blitz and let the front 4 dominate. In that scenario, I think Kupp is going to get a lot of looks because Stafford will go to his security blanket.

[bucksavage1]

There’s a big public vs sharps split on tonight’s game.

Sharp bettors on the Bengals -4 and Public backing Dolphins +4 and even ML

 

[bucksavage1]

On 9/27/2022 at 8:34 AM, Broncofan said:

Coming back to this - the week 3 0-2 ATS covering in Week 3 ran perfect again in 2022.     There were 2 games with 0-2 teams, so naturally only 1 can win and 1 can lose - but the other 4 teams covered.   6-2 (and the 2-2 was guaranteed with NO-CAR and LV-TEN).   85-64 heading into 2023.

LAR (very easy)

IND (pretty easy, although KC made a ton of mistakes to let it happen)

DEN (not easy)

CIN (very easy)

It doesn't mean I'll auto-back the 0-2 team, but I'll likely do as I did this year - and just pass on the matchup if I do like the team that's not 0-2.   I can't explain it other than Vegas' algorithm clearly works in finding a line crowds overreact to.   

Of note - it doesn't apply to 0-3 teams, for week 4.   Weird, but it's happened too often to ignore it.

Interesting stats

[Broncofan]

22 minutes ago, bucksavage1 said:

There’s a big public vs sharps split on tonight’s game.

Sharp bettors on the Bengals -4 and Public backing Dolphins +4 and even ML

 

I know Action Network is reporting this, but they're an outlier.   Most books are reporting a much closer split, witness MGM (which is a good marker) & DK (another good marker):

 

ML bets are almost almost ways tilted to the dog nowadays, because if you're betting ML, a lot fewer ppl take the -value ML plays.   There is a tilt in ML plays, but it's not reflected in ATS betting.

As you can see from the ATS money, the big bets are still aligned on the Bengals there.

For another book, DK is reporting the # bets and the total $ are almost similar - so the sharp money isn't that different than the public, at least for the moment.

https://dknation.draftkings.com/2022/9/29/23327008/dolphins-vs-bengals-picks-nfl-week-4-thursday-night-football-prediction-odds-moneyline-bets

DK is reporting a massive MIA ML edge - but keep in mind DK offers a 7-pt auto-win - lead by 7, your bet is marked as a win (I have it, @MikeT14 credit here).   So it's not a surprise DK would have a massive ML bet edge to MIA. 

There's no doubt public $ is on MIA - but the sharp $ at many different books are aligning with the public, with a couple of outliers. .  This looks like a time where Vegas will be firmly in CIN's corner, both against the public and the sharps.

 

 

 

Edited September 29, 2022 by Broncofan

[Broncofan]

BTW, I'm surprised it hasn't been raised - but a LOT of social media attention will point to 3-0 ATS and real-life teams failing to cover ATS, or win in their 4th week.  It's less than 40 percent.  Something like 27-40-1.   Seems like a strong reason to fade MIA, right?  Well, WAIT & HOLD ON...

 

Here's where statistics can be incredibly misleading - in all but 4 games, the 3-0 team was the favourite.   In other words, bettors and the line were overreacting to a team's success as a favorite in Week 4.    But tonight, MIA is coming in as a 4-pt dog.   Given we've literally only had 4 games in the last 20 years, it makes the sample size insufficient to draw ANY conclusions.

With FOUR games as the baseline of 3-0 ATS/3-0 real life win teams coming as the dog on week 4 - any precedent implied here is meaningless.    If MIA was coming in -4, the stat cited above should give you pause - but not as a 4 point dog.   This is a great example of misapplication of stats.   This is not apples to apples tonight. 

BOL!

Edited September 29, 2022 by Broncofan

[bucksavage1]

32 minutes ago, Broncofan said:

I know Action Network is reporting this, but they're an outlier.   Most books are reporting a much closer split, witness MGM (which is a good marker) & DK (another good marker):

 

ML bets are almost almost ways tilted to the dog nowadays, because if you're betting ML, a lot fewer ppl take the -value ML plays.   There is a tilt in ML plays, but it's not reflected in ATS betting.

As you can see from the ATS money, the big bets are still aligned on the Bengals there.

For another book, DK is reporting the # bets and the total $ are almost similar - so the sharp money isn't that different than the public, at least for the moment.

https://dknation.draftkings.com/2022/9/29/23327008/dolphins-vs-bengals-picks-nfl-week-4-thursday-night-football-prediction-odds-moneyline-bets

DK is reporting a massive MIA ML edge - but keep in mind DK offers a 7-pt auto-win - lead by 7, your bet is marked as a win (I have it, @MikeT14 credit here).   So it's not a surprise DK would have a massive ML bet edge to MIA. 

There's no doubt public $ is on MIA - but the sharp $ at many different books are aligning with the public, with a couple of outliers. .  This looks like a time where Vegas will be firmly in CIN's corner, both against the public and the sharps.

 

 

 

Good notes. The books definitely want a CIN to cover

 

26 minutes ago, Broncofan said:

BTW, I'm surprised it hasn't been raised - but a LOT of social media attention will point to 3-0 ATS and real-life teams failing to cover ATS, or win in their 4th week.  It's less than 40 percent.  Something like 27-40-1.   Seems like a strong reason to fade MIA, right?

 

Here's where statistics can be incredibly misleading - in all but 4 games, the 3-0 team was the favourite.   In other words, bettors and the line was overreacting to a team's success.    But tonight, MIA is coming in as a 4-pt dog.   Given we've literally only had 4 games in the last 20 years, it makes the sample size insufficient to draw ANY conclusions.

With FOUR games as the baseline of 3-0 ATS/3-0 real life win teams coming as the dog on week 4 - any precedent implied here is meaningless.    If MIA was coming in -4, the stat cited above should give you pause - but not as a 4 point dog.   This is a great example of misapplication of stats.   This is not apples to apples tonight. 

BOL!

I personally would back Miami tonight but in a teaser taking them over the up to +9.5. Pair them with Denver at +8.5.

Raiders haven’t beat a team by more than 10 since October 21. Eagles and Broncos