Rainmaker90 Posted October 20, 2022 Share Posted October 20, 2022 2 hours ago, LeotheLion said: The two lines I like the most this week feels like traps: Tennessee -2 vs Indy KC -2.5 @ 49ers Tennessee as a favorite is usually a no go. But they are at home off a bye against a bad Indy team. That line seems like it should be 3.5 or 4. Then KC I think should be closer to a 3.5 line. Even if 49ers are full strength, Spags defense doesn't seem like it would be good for Jimmy G. Really this is a bet on Mahomes and KC not to lose 2 straight. I also like Atlanta +6...but think I may stay away from that. That line also seems like it should be 4.5. The first two are the ones that interested me the most too. I MLd KC already. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
adamq Posted October 20, 2022 Share Posted October 20, 2022 Tonight I'm in on the FD Hopkins boost.. td and 60 yards +320 And Juwan Johnson/Vannett I'm going 2U on 49ers ML.. Bosa and Trent Williams will suit up. 49ers will pound them on the ground and hold the ball for 40 minutes. DL will terrorize Patty and hold them to 17 or less I also like Cleveland +6.5 and the under Spending the next couple days at a casino in Indiana, so I'll have plenty of time to look through player props... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Broncofan Posted October 20, 2022 Share Posted October 20, 2022 (edited) 12 hours ago, N4L said: I would feel a lot better about this bet if we knew who their QB was. Considering both Dalton and Jameis are banged up, there is a chance we end up with a lot of Taysom at QB on TNF. That completely nukes Kamara in the passing game. Also - I love the alternate line bet when you have a player like Breece Hall last week that was set to smash his rushing total, or for a guy like ekeler who gets peppered with targets but I dont love it in this spot. I get the reasoning - NO has to throw to someone but the cardinals have not allowed RBs to catch many passes this year: https://www.cbssports.com/fantasy/football/stats/posvsdef/RB/ARI/teambreakdown/standard CMC was the only RB to really do much through the air against them. I love this one. Arizona has struggled against TEs for ~3 years now. Trautman is out like you say, so THIS is the one to do the alternate line for imo because it's feasible he is a massive part of the gameplan based on how other teams have had success against the cardinals. FWIW both Dalton & Jameis are off the injury report - this is Dennis Allen playing games with the QB starter naming. It's either Jameis/Dalton. This has actually helped boost Kamara's prop to +140/+300/+520 for the fear which you articulated. But given the knowledge it's a Q of which QB, not neither, I reloaded the bets, which I took with a 0.2U unit penalty, but I figured YOLO on this one. Edited October 20, 2022 by Broncofan Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Broncofan Posted October 20, 2022 Share Posted October 20, 2022 (edited) 11 hours ago, N4L said: Some props I love: Brian Robinson over 53 rush yards against GB - He is the clear RB1 there. They are coming off a long week, so there should be zero restrictions. Washington is moderately physical up front and that has given the packers problems. Heineke can operate the offense and that should lead to some sustained drives. Washington has talent on offense and I like scott turner overall. Breece hall over rush yards - line hasnt been released yet but the broncos defense is tough to throw against. Zach Wilson is still figuring out how to play in the NFL. The jets will look to run the ball and the broncos defense has surrendered some yardage on the ground. Seems like running the ball against the broncos is the best way to move the ball: I figure this is around 59/63 yards. That shouldn't be so hard for a guy who is an absolute gamebreaker with the ball in his hands https://www.cbssports.com/fantasy/football/stats/posvsdef/RB/DEN/teambreakdown/standard I will also monitor the breece rec total (not released yet) as well because ekeler feasted in that department last week. Over the last three games, the broncos have given up 6,8,14 receptions to RBs. It makes sense - considering how good their secondary is, teams have started to look to throw to their RBs. Breece and michael carter are more than capable there. should be 2 or 2.5 for Breece. Ken walker over rush yards against LAC - Not released yet. This might be slightly inflated but I expect him to get 100 yards this week. His line will probably be in the mid 60s. This is one to play the alternate line. He is a stud and is not competing for touches with anyone else. Should break a big run at somepoint. Dude is a LOAD I will be teasing the jets up to 8, along with the under 45 in that game. Jets corners are terrific, sauce is a gamechanger for that defense, and the broncos passing offense has not gotten into a rhythm yet. Feels like a grind it out game where neither offense does much but both teams are trying very hard to run the ball. Two very strong defenses in the altitude against QBs who have really struggled. I just do not trust DEN to score enough to cover 8 points. They have been an abysmal RZ offense. I like the over 41 in the KC/SF game as a teaser leg. Jimmy Garoppolo is honestly playing the best football he has played in years, if not his whole career. He had some absolutely perfect deep balls dropped last week. Couldnt have asked for better throws. I think the niners will attack this KC secondary. The niners signed former chief Charvarious Ward this offseason, so you would think Kyle would have some insight into how they do things there. Trent williams might be back which would certainly help tremendously, but even if he isnt, the OL has played very well as a group. You would think Kyle would be more aggressive this week knowing that no lead is safe and that he will need to score 25+ points to win. The niners defense is a bit banged up right now. Not sure who plays. Likely going Breece Hall & Kenneth Walker rush yd over & alt line too, likely both in DFS as well. Strong calls. The other obvious rush yds spot has to be Josh Jacobs at home vs. HOU, but I expect it to be juiced up. Edited October 20, 2022 by Broncofan 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N4L Posted October 21, 2022 Share Posted October 21, 2022 I am completely shoving on Juwan tonight. I am extremely heavy on the over in his rec and yards, including alternate props and I am even parlaying them. Played over 4.5 catches for +1100 last night (!!!). Its at like +450 right now. I have the over 2.5 for very heavy, and the over 3.5 as well for +380 or something. I also have over 3.5 catches parlayed with the over 38 yards for +450. LETS EAT 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N4L Posted October 21, 2022 Share Posted October 21, 2022 3 hours ago, N4L said: Played over 4.5 catches for +1100 last night (!!!) He caught his 5th ball and the niners traded for CMC in the exact same moment !!!!!!!!!!!! 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmittyBacall Posted October 21, 2022 Share Posted October 21, 2022 What a night! @Broncofan Sleep well tonight, king! 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmittyBacall Posted October 21, 2022 Share Posted October 21, 2022 13 hours ago, SmittyBacall said: Any chance D-Hop just comes out of the gate and gets peppered with 14 targets? Went with my gut and decided to throw 1U on Hopkins 10 reception milestone +1450. Bang! 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
adamq Posted October 21, 2022 Share Posted October 21, 2022 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Broncofan Posted October 21, 2022 Share Posted October 21, 2022 (edited) On 10/19/2022 at 10:06 AM, Broncofan said: Because Robbie Anderson hasn’t been added and Hollywood Brown / Chris Olave status isn’t confirmed there are only 2 player props are out, but some books have released TD props. So I’ll add at least 1 more player prop but to leverage the early odds I’m playing: PLAYER PROPS Alvin Kamara o4.5 catches +140, 6+ catches +300 & 7 catches +560 0.5U - I don’t have quite as much confidence because on TNF you can see more split work - but traveling to ARI and losing so many players to injury I lean to NO being behind. In that case or if NO gets the ball at the end of the 1H, this hits easily. Olave is the only WR returning and Trautman is out, so it still favors Kamara as the 2nd best weapon they have. If you’re nervous then main prop alone works. I would love to see Juwan Johnson props esp if Jameis returns, and I’m definitely taking Rondale Moore props if Nuk Hopkins is thought to be the main guy. But nothing else it out yet. Unlike last week I’m avoiding Ertz props both with NO being much better vs TE’s than Seattle and the complete uncertainty with Nuk Hopkins’ return. LONGSHOT TD PROPS Juwan Johnson +500 / +6000 2+ (FANDUEL - 0.9U / 0.1U) - Adam Trautman is out so this is totally worth it as he’s the main TE now. Doesn’t mean it’s the only crazy odds prop to consider but the main one worth 1U. Nick Vannett +2000 (FD) 0.5U - he’s been inactive but becomes the 2nd TE in 12 formation. Not nearly so likely as Johnson to score but you have to take a +2000 shot if you like TE. JP Holtz +2000 (FD) 0.5U - H-back but also could be TE2. At 20-1 same idea but only 0.5U each to get both in. On 10/19/2022 at 10:04 PM, Broncofan said: Adding 2 player props: -Rondale Moore o46.5 Rec yds 2U & 75+ Rec yds +330 - think he’s at worst the #3 guy now - but the Saints are very good vs. the TE, so I think he’s the #2 behind Nuk Hopkins this week. -Juwan Johnson o2.5 catches +110, 4+ catches +330 0.5U - with Trautman out and no MT / Landry have take this shot. That makes it 8U in player props and 2U in TD props so at 10U total that’s enough for now. BOL! 8 hours ago, Broncofan said: FWIW both Dalton & Jameis are off the injury report - this is Dennis Allen playing games with the QB starter naming. It's either Jameis/Dalton. This has actually helped boost Kamara's prop to +140/+300/+520 for the fear which you articulated. But given the knowledge it's a Q of which QB, not neither, I reloaded the bets, which I took with a 0.2U unit penalty, but I figured YOLO on this one. Well, it looked for the LONGEST time like all 3 player props were dead, at -8U, but that's why game script matters. Called that NO would lose (didn't think it would be like THAT however, lol) - and it got scary when Dennis Allen pulled Kamara out down 17. But in the end, they did enough to get him back in there, and Johnson & Kamara hit ALL the props. EVERY ONE. And frankly, Rondale Moore was bad luck after getting 33 yards on the first drive lol. But NO ONE is complaining, not after the huge hits. PLAYER PROPS Kamara 7 catches - O4.5 2U +140, 6+ +320 & 7+ 520 0.5U - +8.6U profit Juwan Johnson 5 catches - O2.5 2U +110, 4+ +330 0.5U - I'm subtracting the 0.25U payout I reloaded Kamara out, so it's a 3.6U profit here (and @N4L convinced me to grow a pair and go 3.5U with adding another 0.5U to 4+ catches +330 and 0.5U 5+ +1100 - but I'm not going to count it - but you know what, my B365 account doesn't care, because that's another 7.1U there!) Rondale Moore -2U 10.1U profit TD PROPS Juwan Johnson +500 & +6000 give me a massive 11U profit, even with the missed 1U with the half-bets. I also took the Shaheed +2200 bet as it literally was the only +2000 NO longshot I didn't take (but again, I didn't announce it...but those 11U still go into the bank account) So yeah, my real profit is closer to 40U, but I'm banking on my published picks a very nice 21.1U today. WHAT A NIGHT. SEASON TALLY up to Week 7 TNF ATS / ML & RACE 16-18-1 ATS, 9-11 ML/RACE (Week 1 JAX, Week 2 TNF LAC pick-6, Week 3 DET late game management - all snakebitten, but in reality nowhere close to the 40+ percent I need to make ML/RACE's profitable). BALANCE -3.9U PLAYER PROPS 53-46 +61.7U (27-18 in 2U+ plays, with big +payouts <+300, +400, +500> on several alt lines) LONGSHOT TD PROPS 12-39 (win Isiah McKenzie +350 & +450 2 bets Week 1 TNF, Josh Palmer +300 Week 2 TNF, Stefon Diggs +300 3U play, David Njoku +500 Week 3 TNF, and 3.2U cashout profit on Week 3 Zamir White/Tony Jones prop massive odds drop; and Week 4 Lat Murray +1000 / Josh Reynolds +500 / Jody Fortson +1000, Week 5 Velus Jones +1800, Durham Smythe +700 & Adam Trautman +800 0.5U, Week 6 Jake Ferguson +1200, Week 7 TNF Juwan Johnson +500 & +6000 2+). +50.9U TOTAL: +108.7U (Week 1 - +7.4U. Week 2 - -10.0U <ugh> Week 3 - +8.9U, Week 4 - +23.2U, Week 5 - +41.9U, Week 6 - +16.2U. Week 7 TNF - +21.1U) 2020 - +226U, 18% ROI. 2021: +251U, 27% ROI 2022: Edited October 21, 2022 by Broncofan 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Broncofan Posted October 21, 2022 Share Posted October 21, 2022 (edited) Ok some early player props I got before the CMC trade and after TNF (Kittle / Deebo props likely will not be available again until CMC status known): PLAYER PROPS EARLY Ceedee Lamb O71.5 Rec Yds 2U, 100+ Rec yds +300, 125+ Rec yds +700 0.5U - Yes Jeff Okudah is a good CB now. But Ceedee gets an insane 30+ percent target share and they move him all around plus have heavy slot usage. I cited a stat last year that Ceedee goes 7/80 almost every time DAL uses him heavily in the slot. That continues now and Dak’s back. Worth the 3.5U play vs DET D. LATE Deebo Samuel O57.5 Rec Yds 2U, 75+ Rec yds +200 - KC shootout and pass funnel D. If CMC plays there’s greater risk here but no CMC or decoy CMC and wow smash spot. George Kittle O46.5 Rec Yds 2U, 75+ Rec Yds +360 - see above but even more magnified risk if CMC plays. Josh Jacobs O80.5 rush yds, 100+ rush yds +200, 125+ rush yds +580 0.5U +500 - home game, 7-pt faves and bad run D. LV has found something with the 6-OL run game. With Waller hurting and no Renfrow likely expect another heavy lean on Jacobs here. A little scarier going 3.5U at those target numbers but trusting my process here where winning gamescript leans on the run. Kenneth Walker O68.5 rush yds, 100+ rush yds +350, 125+ rush yds +850 0.5U - similar to other games facing the LAC D - hammer the RB esp at those totals. Because SEA is expected to lose the numbers are lower - but Walker can get 60+ in 1 play so have to take a shot here. SNF Jaylen Waddle O57.5 Rec yds 2U, 75+ Rec yds +200, 100+ Rec yds +600 0.5U - Tua’s back and the PIT secondary can’t cover quick twitch guys so well, so another 3.5U worthy play. Really still interested in Breece Hall & now Isiah Likely props if Mark Andrews is out. LONGSHOT TD PLAYS B365 props only for now hoping to get nicer lines on FD as in prior weeks… EARLY Jared Goff +1600 - Sneak / scramble play at those odds. Jeff Smith +1600 / +12500 2+ (0.9U/0.1U) - with Eli Moore not playing, everyone is on Denzel Mims - but they forget Smith was the original backup to Moore's spot. Now, Smith plays ST's, but I remember Smith vultured important RZ looks, so have to take a shot Isiah Likely +550 / +8000 2+ 1.2U / 0.3U - Mark Andrews missed practice 2x now . If I wait to hear he’s out this drops below +200 / +2000. YOLO lol. LATE Tre Mckitty +1000 / +12500 2+ (0.9U / 0.1U) - Donald Parham likely out as he’s back in concussion protocol. Mckitty now the TE2. Will look for 0.5U on the 3rd TE on FD if it’s +1600 or better too. Edited October 21, 2022 by Broncofan 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Broncofan Posted October 21, 2022 Share Posted October 21, 2022 A couple of ATS/ML plays I'm willing to take: ATS/ML & RACE LATE SF ML +120, RACE to 20/25 - I know, I know, the KC-off-loss narrative. But this SF D is legit, and I'm NOT counting on CMC - but the run game, and Kittle/Deebo pass game are exactly what gives KC fits. LV -7 vs. HOU - there's a TON of $ coming in on HOU - and I do not get this at all. Davis Mills is regressing hard, and the HOU D is helpless against the run game - which the LV O has found with their 6-OL formation. With no Renfrow and a hurting Waller, I expect LV to pound HOU into submission here. I get there's some risk here with Carr ****ting the bed (leading to TO's), but really that's about it. MORE PLAYER PROPS Aaron Rodgers O228.5 pass yards - I know, I know, the GB O has been awful. And they should run it more. But this is NOT the D where you do that. I expect A-Rod to go 250/2+ here, TBH. Easy call. Having said that, I do not feel confident enough to put in a 3.5U play - esp as the payouts aren't that great for pass yd alt lines (you have to hit 250+ for +165, and 300+ for +600 - too far for my blood). David Njoku O36.5 rec yds 2U, 50+ rec yards +200, 75+ rec yards +600 0.5U - BAL's D has improved with Marlon Humphrey returning, but they're 21st in DVOA vs. the TE. Given how much Brissett leans on him, I'm good to take the 3.5U plunge on those #'s. As the SF plays are gone, I took the free 0.5U parley at A-Rod O228.5 pass yds / Njoku O36.5 rec yds / Lamb O71.5 rec yds / Jacobs O80.5 rush yds / Walker-III O68.5 rush yds / Waddle O58.5 rec yds at +4800 (and again can hedge with SNF). MORE LONGSHOT TD PLAYS Jeff Smith +1600 / +12500 0.9U/0.1U (already down to +650) - with Elijah Moore out, ppl point to Denzel Mims, but Jeff Smith is actually ahead of him (maybe it's ST work, but Smith did get TD's and RZ looks ahead of Mims even when Mims was in the rotation last year and 2 years ago). Worth the shot - and B365 realizes this, and has already dropped it to +650 (not so much now). They also dropped Mckitty to +500 realizing Parham is likely out. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmittyBacall Posted October 21, 2022 Share Posted October 21, 2022 44 minutes ago, Broncofan said: A couple of ATS/ML plays I'm willing to take: ATS/ML & RACE LATE SF ML +120, RACE to 20/25 - I know, I know, the KC-off-loss narrative. But this SF D is legit, and I'm NOT counting on CMC - but the run game, and Kittle/Deebo pass game are exactly what gives KC fits. LV -7 vs. HOU - there's a TON of $ coming in on HOU - and I do not get this at all. Davis Mills is regressing hard, and the HOU D is helpless against the run game - which the LV O has found with their 6-OL formation. With no Renfrow and a hurting Waller, I expect LV to pound HOU into submission here. I get there's some risk here with Carr ****ting the bed (leading to TO's), but really that's about it. MORE PLAYER PROPS Aaron Rodgers O228.5 pass yards - I know, I know, the GB O has been awful. And they should run it more. But this is NOT the D where you do that. I expect A-Rod to go 250/2+ here, TBH. Easy call. Having said that, I do not feel confident enough to put in a 3.5U play - esp as the payouts aren't that great for pass yd alt lines (you have to hit 250+ for +165, and 300+ for +600 - too far for my blood). David Njoku O36.5 rec yds 2U, 50+ rec yards +200, 75+ rec yards +600 0.5U - BAL's D has improved with Marlon Humphrey returning, but they're 21st in DVOA vs. the TE. Given how much Brissett leans on him, I'm good to take the 3.5U plunge on those #'s. As the SF plays are gone, I took the free 0.5U parley at A-Rod O228.5 pass yds / Njoku O36.5 rec yds / Lamb O71.5 rec yds / Jacobs O80.5 rush yds / Walker-III O68.5 rush yds / Waddle O58.5 rec yds at +4800 (and again can hedge with SNF). MORE LONGSHOT TD PLAYS Jeff Smith +1600 / +12500 0.9U/0.1U (already down to +650) - with Elijah Moore out, ppl point to Denzel Mims, but Jeff Smith is actually ahead of him (maybe it's ST work, but Smith did get TD's and RZ looks ahead of Mims even when Mims was in the rotation last year and 2 years ago). Worth the shot - and B365 realizes this, and has already dropped it to +650 (not so much now). They also dropped Mckitty to +500 realizing Parham is likely out. I added Amari Cooper over 55.5 (1U) and 75+ at +220 (0.5U). Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Broncofan Posted October 21, 2022 Share Posted October 21, 2022 5 minutes ago, SmittyBacall said: I added Amari Cooper over 55.5 (1U) and 75+ at +220 (0.5U). I thought about that but Humphrey shadowing made me pause. Cooper doesn’t fare as well vs very good CB’s. Njoku path imo is a LOT easier so I went there. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N4L Posted October 21, 2022 Share Posted October 21, 2022 On 10/20/2022 at 12:37 AM, N4L said: Some props I love: Brian Robinson over 53 rush yards against GB - He is the clear RB1 there. They are coming off a long week, so there should be zero restrictions. Washington is moderately physical up front and that has given the packers problems. Heineke can operate the offense and that should lead to some sustained drives. Washington has talent on offense and I like scott turner overall. Breece hall over rush yards - line hasnt been released yet but the broncos defense is tough to throw against. Zach Wilson is still figuring out how to play in the NFL. The jets will look to run the ball and the broncos defense has surrendered some yardage on the ground. Seems like running the ball against the broncos is the best way to move the ball: I figure this is around 59/63 yards. That shouldn't be so hard for a guy who is an absolute gamebreaker with the ball in his hands https://www.cbssports.com/fantasy/football/stats/posvsdef/RB/DEN/teambreakdown/standard I will also monitor the breece rec total (not released yet) as well because ekeler feasted in that department last week. Over the last three games, the broncos have given up 6,8,14 receptions to RBs. It makes sense - considering how good their secondary is, teams have started to look to throw to their RBs. Breece and michael carter are more than capable there. should be 2 or 2.5 for Breece. Ken walker over rush yards against LAC - Not released yet. This might be slightly inflated but I expect him to get 100 yards this week. His line will probably be in the mid 60s. This is one to play the alternate line. He is a stud and is not competing for touches with anyone else. Should break a big run at somepoint. Dude is a LOAD I will be teasing the jets up to 8, along with the under 45 in that game. Jets corners are terrific, sauce is a gamechanger for that defense, and the broncos passing offense has not gotten into a rhythm yet. Feels like a grind it out game where neither offense does much but both teams are trying very hard to run the ball. Two very strong defenses in the altitude against QBs who have really struggled. I just do not trust DEN to score enough to cover 8 points. They have been an abysmal RZ offense. I like the over 41 in the KC/SF game as a teaser leg. Jimmy Garoppolo is honestly playing the best football he has played in years, if not his whole career. He had some absolutely perfect deep balls dropped last week. Couldnt have asked for better throws. I think the niners will attack this KC secondary. The niners signed former chief Charvarious Ward this offseason, so you would think Kyle would have some insight into how they do things there. Trent williams might be back which would certainly help tremendously, but even if he isnt, the OL has played very well as a group. You would think Kyle would be more aggressive this week knowing that no lead is safe and that he will need to score 25+ points to win. The niners defense is a bit banged up right now. Not sure who plays. Ken walker line is 67.5 (nailed that btw, I said mid 60s). Took the over as well as over 78, 88, 98, 108, 128 all for plus money. Adding Fournette over 64.5 rush yards. I am not in love with Tampa's offense right now. They do not look right. With that being said, given Tampa's defense, the state of the panther's offense, and the fact tampa is 12/13 point favorites, that points to a positive game script for Fournette to hit this. Every team the panthers have played have rushed for this amount from their RBs, with the exception of LAR, who do not have a viable running back. https://www.cbssports.com/fantasy/football/stats/posvsdef/RB/CAR/teambreakdown/standard I am simply betting on game script here. Overs in rushing props for a heavy favorite are typically a winning strategy. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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