Jump to content

Weekly Bets Thread

BStanRamFan

By BStanRamFan
in NFL General

 Share

Recommended Posts

Broncofan

Broncofan

Posted
Posted

FWIW the reason why Otton player props aren't out - Cameron Brate's status is Q.    If he's out, I suspect we'll see last minute additions.   

If Brate's active, sadly I have to take Otton off my DFS play.   I'll still play the +425 because if Brate's inactive, those drop to +200 or less.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Trojan

Trojan

Posted
Posted

Have one terrible DK contest, I don't know why I keep doing them when I'm so bad at it.... but...

QB: Jacoby Brissett
RB: Saquon Barkley
RB: Alvin Kamara
WR: Amari Cooper
WR: Jalen Waddle
WR: Mack Hollins
TE: Harrison Bryant
FLEX: Marquez Valdez-Scantling
DST: Saints

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Malfatron

Malfatron

Posted
Posted (edited)
3 minutes ago, Trojan said:

Have one terrible DK contest, I don't know why I keep doing them when I'm so bad at it.... but...

QB: Jacoby Brissett
RB: Saquon Barkley
RB: Alvin Kamara
WR: Amari Cooper
WR: Jalen Waddle
WR: Mack Hollins
TE: Harrison Bryant
FLEX: Marquez Valdez-Scantling
DST: Saints

Do you have a 100 team league?

Edited by Malfatron
Link to comment
Share on other sites
Trojan

Trojan

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, Malfatron said:

Do you have a 100 team league?

I just enter the $20 big prize contest that happens every week where first gets a million. I think there are like 200,000 entries, you get a budget of 50,000 points to spend and each player takes a certain number of points so bad players like Mack Hollins and MVS are a bit over 4,000 where a Saquon or Kamara is usually like 7,000.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Broncofan

Broncofan

Posted
Posted (edited)
On 11/11/2022 at 12:18 PM, Broncofan said:

Otton is +425 / +4500 2+ on DK.  Took 0.8U / 0.2U.  

 

Some early player props / longshot TD's adding to the ATS/ML card (which I'm updating from my Tuesday post):

 

ATS / ML & RACE - UPDATED FROM TUESDAY

MIN +7.5 @ BUF, NOW +3.5 - Back on Tuesday, I thought Allen plays - but if it looks like he won't, and the  line dropped to +3.5 already.  I'm already OK with keeping it at 7.5 pts for the Vikes , and giving some all-important protection against the 7-pt loss.  

DEN +3 @ TEN, NOW +2.5 - to be clear, I can't back a DEN win here.   But with both Malik Willis likely to start, TEN playing on a short week, having had their D on the field for 87 plays (!!!), and DEN having been on a bye - I envision a 19-17 type game.   So give me the 3 pts, worst-case I get a push.   Follows the "back TEN as a dog, pass/fade as a fave" principle.  I won't lie, I wasn't even close to interested b4 MNF, but the OT circumstances, and the fact Ryan Tannehill is almost certainly missing this game - well, now I'm interested.   But I'm not going to back a ML play, here I'll just take the points.

SEA ML @ TAM +130 / RACE to 20/25 (not released) - I know, it's SEA travelling east.   That's legit.  But honestly, with SEA's D being so much improved, and TAM's OL in shambles, and their D lacking great pass rushers, IMO this should be a pick 'em even at Tampa.    So I have to take the + money and a RACE to 20/25 is fine here.

JAX +10.0 @ KC -120, now +9.5 - the big risk is we get bad Trevor showing up.   But if we don't, the JAX run game and their improved D gives a decent chance to stay close.   I don't think they win, but at 10 pts, it's an easy play.   The fact JAX can generate edge pressure, and the run game with Etienne can eat clock, it's why I'm willing to take the points.

SNF

LAC +7 @ SF - I totally get it, SF's D is great, and CMC adds a new feature to the O that few D's can match - and LAC's run D takes a TERRIBLE hit with Austin Johnson out for the year.   This is simply a reflection that I won't back the Chargers to win, but I have no faith in backing any JimmyG led O to such a wide gap, especially when you have an elite talent QB on the other side.   Give me the points. 

MNF

PHI -10.0 vs. WAS, now -11.0 - on the other hand, give me the Iggles D and what they can do to the Commies O, and same on the other side of the ball.    This might be the last game we see Taylor Heinecke play as starter (the MIN game was miraged by a miracle ball to Samuel with the refs' help, and the IND by Frank Reich turtling in the last 10 mins of game to let a 9 pt lead slip away).   

6U at play - and yes, there's a free SGP for 0.4U which puts the above at +5600.

 

PLAYER PROPS

UK

No TAM props yet - and why I haven't played **Cade Otton props.  Won't lie, I'm very tempted on Walker rush props, even with Vita Vea there, but with the cold streak the last Sunday / MNF / TNF Week 10 slate, going to be a little smarter.   

Will take **Tyler Lockett O60.5 rec yds 2U & 90+ rec yds +310 FD  - agree with @NYRaider's reasoning.

 

EARLY

**Jerry Jeudy O4.5 catches +120 DK / O50.5 rec yds DK, 70+ rec yds +200 & 100+ +600 0.5U alt lines FD - TEN's stout run D (#1 run D by DVOA), and their weaker secondary play (especially in the slot), are why Jeudy makes a great play.  Yes, there's risk with Bad Russ or Hackopalypse game-calling, but the reality is with KJ Hamler out, Jeudy & Kendall Hinton are likely playing in the slot a ton (no props except TD on Hinton, sadly).

Greg Dulcich O39.5 rec yds (only 1U play) - TEN's S Byard is why I won't try and chase the 3.5U play (along with my cold streak).   The only alt line on B365 I'd consider if I had it would be the 5+ catch prop at +260 - because I don't see a lot of extra yards after the catch)

**Amari Cooper O63.5 rec yds 2U, 90+ +240 & 125 +800 0.5U FD - no Njoku, and the one cover CB the Phins have in Xavien Howard, is banged up and playing poorly - and Cooper has had success vs. him when he was in DAL.   

**Cole Kmet O2.5 catches +120, O22.5 rec yds, 40+ yards +300 & 60+ +750 FD 0.5U - besides SEA, DET is another D that's terrible vs. the TE.  Nothing wrong with Kmet's O24.5 rec yds props.

*Darrell Mooney O41.5 rec yds 2U, 70+ yards +320 - I know, he got 42 last week.  But this is DET's pass D, which is far worse than MIA's.   I also do believe DET will try and limit Fields' run game, but you open the pass coverage if you do that.   B365 bettors may want to consider the 5+ catch +220 and 6+ catch +580 alt line instead.

*Juju Smith-Schuster O5.5 catches +110 - with teams concentrating on trying to limit Travis Kelce, and playing deep coverage, Juju is the new safety blanket.   Happy to take a shot here. 

 

With a free 0.4U Score (get it refunded if I lose) parley bet - I'm going to play Lockett O60.5 / Jeudy O52.5 /  Kmet O22.5 / Mooney O43.5 (up now) / Cooper O63.5 rec yds / Juju O5.5 catches parley for +4500 as well.   So that's 18.5U at play.

 

LONGSHOT TD PLAYS

UK

Cade Otton +425 / +4500 2+  DK (0.8U / 0.2U) - FWIW, this isn't just overrreaction to last week - SEA's pass D is definitely a RB/TE funnel, both in catches/yards but also RZ work.   

Will Dissly +500 FD 0.5U - the overlooked guy in the RZ. 

 

EARLY

Kendall Hinton +1700 TD / +15000 2+ DK (0.9U/0.1U x2 - cashed out for 1.2U profit on 2nd play) - covered b4.   Hamler news is NOT official yet, so there's still time for all you DK bettors.

Tyrie Cleveland +2200 DK 0.5U, Montrell Washington +1200 0.5U  (now also down to +700 and +400 post Hamler news)- took this as insurance just in case. 

Juwan Johnson +400 / +4000 DK (0.8U/0.2U) - has to be unchanged because of concerns with Adam Trautman.  FWIW if Jameis Winston was announced as started, I'd consider a 2U play - Jameis / Juwan connection is even better, given Winston's willingness to go downfield on seam routes.

Justin Watson +700 FD / +7000 2+ (0.9U/0.1U) - the big body WR that benefits most in the RZ from the Hardman absence.

Jody Fortson +1500 / +15000 2+ DK (0.9U/0.1U) - how quickly ppl forget.  Easy play at those odds. 

 

LATE

Alec Pierce +650 / +7000 2+ TD's FD 0.9U/0.1U - with Mo Alie-Cox and Jelani Woods out, this makes Pierce the only big body WR in play besides Michael Pittman, who IMO is going to draw the most attention.    Gotta take a shot at those odds.

Kylen Granson +350 FD 0.5U - the only TE left standing.   Again would be 1U if we got word Matt Ryan is starting.

So that's 6.5U in TD plays for Sunday

____________________________________

 

* - playing them main and alt lines or using them in DFS

** - playing them alt lines AND playing in DFS

Well injuries really suck.....lost 3 guys due to injury, and worse, really early too (worst part is that Jeudy was likely open and probably gets 60%+ of the main prop on that play alone...on the very first play of game; sigh).

ATS/ML - 2-2-1 including UK game with SEA ML, literally breaks even.  

PLAYER PROPS - 2-4, Cole Kmet and Darnell Mooney pay off nicely (Kmet in a massive way, +9.2U with 2U on the catch, rec main props, and 1U on 40+ and 0.5U on +750), but losing the 3 3.5U plays on Jeudy (damn you injuries), Amari Cooper (just a bad call) and Lockett on UK game, and then Juju (who looked solid for 6+ catches, but alas) & Dulcich (4 targets in a game with no Jeudy/Hamler???? OMG Hackett....) for 1 each - that's -2.3U lost today.  

TD PROPS - 1-6, with Juwan Johnson paying out at +400 again (3rd time!), and then the 1.2U profit from the Hinton cashout (no Vigil prop was offered, dammit would have taken it lol), with the 6.5U stake, that's -1.3U lost today.  

__________________

A 2-4 player prop night and 1-6 TD night should mean a bigger loss - but it does show the benefit of the alt lines - Kmet's alt lines huge payoffs cover my bad luck with injuries and just plain bad call with Amari Cooper.   Still, it would be great to get on the roll again, but with such a bad by-the-numbers result, the 2 super-longshot TD's and Juwan Johnson keep me afloat for MNF.

WEEK 10 TNF

                                                                                                                                                                   .                    
ATS/ ML & RACE

24-20-1 ATS, 9-14 ML/RACE, BALANCE +0.6U. (-1.0U Week 10 TNF).                                                                                                   .                      
PLAYER PROPS

68-71  BALANCE  +46.2U (-9.3U Week 10 SNF) - Now 31-28 in 2U+ plays, Week 5 - Kamara / Goedert / D-Henry rec yds / C-Samuel &  Week 6 Breece Halll / Kamara / Andrews / Ertz & MNF Ekeler & Week 7 Kamara/Juwan-Johnson on TNF and Njoku / K-Walker III / J-Jacobs / Waddle / Fields & Week 8 Kamara/Dulcich all paid off big on alt lines plus 2U main plays & Week 10 Kmet huge payoff)


LONGSHOT TD PROPS

19-60, BALANCE +100.7U (+13.2U Week 10 SNF - win Isiah McKenzie +350 & +450 2 bets Week 1 TNF, Josh Palmer +300 Week 2 TNF, Stefon Diggs +300 boosted 3U play, Chubb boosted +200 TNF play, and Njoku +500 TNF Week 3, Latavius Murray +1000 & Josh Reynolds +500 1U & Jody Fortson +900 1U & SF DST +1000 0.4U, Week 5 Velus Jones +1800 0.5U, Durham Smythe +700 1U & Trautman +800 1U, Week 6 Jake Ferguson +1200 Week 7 TNF Juwan Johnson +500 / +6000 2+; Week 8 TNF Isiah Likely +700 Week 9 Shane Zylstra <LOL> +2000 & James Mitchell +700 & Juwan Johnson +400 MNF;  Week 10 TNF Laviska Shenault +1100 & Khadarel Hodge +2200 & Juwan Johnson <again!> +400).    
 

TOTAL:  +157.5U (Week 1 - +9.4U, Week 2 - -10.0U <ugh>, Week 3 - +8.8U, Week 4 - +27.9U, Week 5 - +44.9U Week 6 - +14.9U Week 7 - +59.1U Week 8 - -2.3U <meh> Week 9 - -8.1U <ugh>. Week 10 SNF - +2.9U)

Edited by Broncofan
Link to comment
Share on other sites
Broncofan

Broncofan

Posted
Posted (edited)

As for MNF, I already have PHI -10 from early on this week, but I have 1 player prop at 2U and 2 mega-longshot TD props that just have to take a 0.5U shot on, given how the week's been going....

ATS/ML - PHI -10

PLAYER PROPS - Antonio Gibson O3.5 catches +110 2U - if you're a B365 guy, think hard about 5 & 6+ catch props - because Gibson's still the guy, and PHI averages giving up 8+ targets a game there.   TBH if my player props weren't on such a cold streak, I'd consider this a 4U play, but we know how that's gone of late (LOL).

Devonta Smith O53.5 Rec yds 2U ,70+ +200 - WAS has 3 factors that help this prop - first they’re tough vs the run game but soft vs the pass.  Next they are tough vs TE being the top fantasy D vs TE by DVOA.    So Goedert gets fewer looks.  Lastly they are a zone D - and Devonta crushes zone D.  

Really, the other props to attack are AJB props, especially with the Goedert fade - but the potential for a blowout has me tempering my plays here.   If I believe PHI wins by 10+, then the catchup script for WAS RB (and no McKissic) makes Gibson the play, and I’ll play D-Smith too  

 

TD PROPS - Well, I'm going with the backup TE play, and going with John Bates +1600 (either DK or FD) and Armani Rodgers +3100 (FD) for 0.5U each.   Logan Thomas is not separating anymore, so the other TE's are seeing the work.   Cole Turner has been inactive even when he cleared concussion protocol, and interesting twist - Armani Rodgers is a converted QB - so the idea of RPO / jet sweep plays are there (he's actually run one jet sweep for 20+ yards).   Obv more likely neither hits, but I've seen far worse odds for guys in similar situations (Fortson, Shane Zylstra lol <Brock Wright did hit this week albeit for "only" +400, too).

Looking to end Week 10 on a high note!

 

Edited by Broncofan
Adding Devonta Smith
  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

×
 Share
Go to topic listing


×
×
  • Create New...