Weekly Bets Thread

[thebestever6]

This weekend has been so thrilling I wish they were all like this. I felt like a kid filling a pillowcase full of candy on Halloween. 

I put Trent Sherfield fd +1300 .4 .1 +11000 dk. just feeling lucky and can't get the Jaleel td props.

Edited November 13, 2023 by thebestever6

[stl4life07]

The only main NFL thing I did was a ATTD parlay with CMC, Walker, Ekeler, and Montgomery. CMC was the only one that didnt score a TD go figure lol.

Other than that I really been focusing on NBA betting which has been alot profitable to me so far.

[BobbyPhil1781]

16 hours ago, Broncofan said:

 

 

 

Well Week 10 SUN slate will go down as an all-timer - and if you had B365 / US FD and you took the TNF Tommy Tremble catch ladder and the SUN 5-6-7-8 (I didn't call the 8 TBF) with Trey McBride, you're probably up 15U+ more with the usual 2U/1U/0.5U (+0.5U for 3rd alt line if called on) ladder. 

And to think that Ty Chandler's 2nd TD gets called back, Tanner Hudson has a TD prevented by DPI, and Lawrence Cager ("only" at +1000 this week lol) chooses to score this week (same with Dynami Brown, but he was only at +500 range, both seemed about right...lol damn).    Chandler & Hudson ALONE would be a 25U swing.

Still, it was a legendary SUN, given that there wasn't a longshot parley or a 2-TD monster, this was just alt-line after alt-line hitting, 9-3 for player props but 7 of the 9 props hit ALL 3 (or in Mcbride's case, all 4) lines.....and Howell was only a 2U play.  So that's how you literally get a 50U+ profit off player props alone, and a +50.2U profit for Sunday (and +48.2U for Week 10 so far)!  What a day!

WEEK 10 SUN RECAP

ATS/ML - 3-2, +1.1U

PLAYER PROPS - 9-3, +50.0U

LONGSHOT TD - -0.9U

NET - +50.2U (!!!!)

 

WEEK 10 to MNF

ATS/ML: 19-22-2, -1.1U (WK 10 to MNF - 3-2, +1.1U )

PLAYER PROPS: 84-741, +104.9U  (WK 10 to MNF - 12-4, +50.5U)

LONGSHOT TD: 17-141 - -23.4U  (WK 10 to MNF - 2-12, -2.5U; Wk1 R-Shaheed +600, D-Parham +800 & R-Johnson +900; Wk2 - I-Hodgins +500 & B-Johnson +950 / +7500 2+; Wk3 - R-Bell +2000 & R-Chosen +2100; Wk4: N-Gray +700; Wk8 - D-Ogletree +950 & Parham +400; Wk9 - D-Johnson +300 & J-Johnson +440 & N-Brown +600; Wk10 - T-Chandler +900 & J-Reed +600)

TOTAL - +80.4U (Wk1 - +3.0U; Wk2: +14.3U; Wk3: -0.8U, Wk4: -5.4U; Wk5 : +15.5U; Wk 6 -22.1U (OUCH); WK 7 - +12.3U; Wk 8 - +14.3U; Wk9 - +2.6U; Wk10 to MNF - +48.2U; 646U stake so far)

Really wish I had laddered a lot of stuff you said. Played some straights as you and others noted some good plays and they all hit. Was a good Sunday for me as well but could've been way better. 

Thanks for all your writeups! They're extremely useful

[N4L]

16 hours ago, Broncofan said:

NEW ADDED SUN PM Jaleel Mclaughlin +400 / +3500 0.8U / 0.2U TheScore - this one is crazy, because he's no better than +250 and close to +200 on some books.   Sorry if this only for Canuck bettors who have this, but gotta take the plunge. 

I am with you lockstep with the javonte and kincaid props. Three more that I would like your opinion on:

Jaleel over 16.5 rush yards / longest rush over 8.5 yards - He is pretty explosive and has supplanted Perine as the #2, no? The broncos should be pretty committed to the run game, as you say. How has jaleel done in pass pro? Any chance he supplants perine as the 2m back? I kinda like perine over 13.5 rec yards but I dont love it.

Shakir over 35.5 yards - he is playing a lot of snaps and is very efficient. Makes plays downfield. Allen trusts him. How are the broncos at defending the slot and the middle of the field? 

[thebestever6]

Triple like this i thought about buyiny betting  pros for $120 a year but @Broncofan is my betting pro lol.

[thebestever6]

double post

Edited November 13, 2023 by thebestever6

[Soggust]

Mentioned this in the MVP thread, but CJ Stroud MVP odds at +2000 seems way off to me. I felt like he should be one of the frontrunners around +300, but was expecting +500ish due to rookie + needing wins.

He is the MVP today imo.

They got ARI, JAX, DEN, NYJ, TEN, CLE, TEN, IND. Sans CLE/NYJ that schedule looks pretty nice for him to continue to play well.

[Broncofan]

1 hour ago, N4L said:

I am with you lockstep with the javonte and kincaid props. Three more that I would like your opinion on:

Jaleel over 16.5 rush yards / longest rush over 8.5 yards - He is pretty explosive and has supplanted Perine as the #2, no? The broncos should be pretty committed to the run game, as you say. How has jaleel done in pass pro? Any chance he supplants perine as the 2m back? I kinda like perine over 13.5 rec yards but I dont love it.

Shakir over 35.5 yards - he is playing a lot of snaps and is very efficient. Makes plays downfield. Allen trusts him. How are the broncos at defending the slot and the middle of the field? 

Ja’Quan McMillan is a major upgrade at slot CB.  He’s got legit skills.  It’s why I avoided Shakir.    
 

I like the Jaleel props it was on my next tier.    At 12U though you gotta draw a line somewhere lol.   

Edited November 13, 2023 by Broncofan

[Broncofan]

1 hour ago, Soggust said:

Mentioned this in the MVP thread, but CJ Stroud MVP odds at +2000 seems way off to me. I felt like he should be one of the frontrunners around +300, but was expecting +500ish due to rookie + needing wins.

He is the MVP today imo.

They got ARI, JAX, DEN, NYJ, TEN, CLE, TEN, IND. Sans CLE/NYJ that schedule looks pretty nice for him to continue to play well.

Crazy part was that he was 200-1 before the TAM game and 125-1 before yesterday’s game.   Yes I have shares at 125-1 lol.  

[JaguarCrazy2832]

Biggest play was Steelers ML with U45.5 for +130…..man that was so freaking sweaty

[Broncofan]

I can't recommend either play with your own $, but I got 2 free bet credits (1 each from FD) so I'm going to donate them on +1800 Lucas Krull (PS TE activated today, Trautman absolutely sucks as a pass catching TE) on DK & then FB Michael Burton on FD because it's +3200 (LOL).  

[Broncofan]

23 hours ago, Broncofan said:

So you know my MNF ATS/ML play, and 2 of my 3 player props, but I found value in 2 TD props - not surprisingly, it's on the DEN side, as the BUF side is mega juiced.   If I believe DEN is easily beating the O19.5 team total, I'm implying 3 TD's, so I found 2 books which are of line with others:

WEEK 10 MNF

ATS/ML

DEN O19.5 - I've covered this before, BUF is actually a bottom 5 D by DVOA since Matt Milano & Daquon Jones and Tre'davious White all went on IR.    I also think the BUF pass O presents a diverse attack that DEN's resurgent D has not had even close to the same level of opposition depth to account for.   So I don't really want to hit the spread, or the over/under, but simply go after a total I think DEN will easily beat, barring a complete prime time meltdown by Russell Wilson.

PLAYER PROPS

Javonte Williams O54.5 rush yds 2U (now 55.5), 80+ rush yds +260 1U DK  - covered this before, he's gone 80+ rush yds last 2 games, and BUF's definitely vulnerable.

Dalton Kincaid O51.5 rec yds (now 52.5) 2U, 80+ rec yds +300 1U (and if you have B365 or US FD - take 6-7-8 catch ladder) DK - DEN's resurgent D is still super vulnerable to the TE, and Josh Allen uses Kincaid as his security blanket.  If I had the catch ladder I’d definitely go there (oh well).  
 

NEW ADDED SUN PM Jerry Jeudy O51.5 rec yds, 80+ rec yds +300 1U DK - The main # is still too low, and while I expect DEN to run at least 30x, Jeudy's abilty to get open should get him to 4-5/65-70 IMO, so both main line and 1st alt line are in play.

That's 9U in player props=

LONGSHOT TD

NEW ADDED SUN PM Jerry Jeudy +300 / +3500 2+ 0.8U / 0.2U FD - I was truly surprised to see a +300 for him, as I had his odds around +180. No other book is giving him better than +230, so I have to take the shot.

NEW ADDED SUN PM Jaleel Mclaughlin +400 / +3500 0.8U / 0.2U TheScore - this one is crazy, because he's no better than +250 and close to +200 on some books.   Sorry if this only for Canuck bettors who have this, but gotta take the plunge. 

 

So that's 2U in TD props, and 12U total for MNF.   It's a scary number, but I feel good taking the top volume runner on the team likely to run, the top yardage/target guy there and BUF's #2 target guy behind Diggs, and where DEN is weakest.   Plus, this game has an implied total of 5, if not 6 TD's, so lots of O expected (and I concur).    

Let's finish a fantastic Week10 strong, BOL!

 

 

WEEK 10 to MNF

ATS/ML: 19-22-2, -1.1U (WK 10 to MNF - 3-2, +1.1U )

PLAYER PROPS: 84-74, +104.9U  (WK 10 to MNF - 12-4, +50.5U)

LONGSHOT TD: 17-141 - -23.4U  (WK 10 to MNF - 2-12, -2.5U; Wk1 R-Shaheed +600, D-Parham +800 & R-Johnson +900; Wk2 - I-Hodgins +500 & B-Johnson +950 / +7500 2+; Wk3 - R-Bell +2000 & R-Chosen +2100; Wk4: N-Gray +700; Wk8 - D-Ogletree +950 & Parham +400; Wk9 - D-Johnson +300 & J-Johnson +440 & N-Brown +600; Wk10 - T-Chandler +900 & J-Reed +600)

TOTAL - +80.4U (Wk1 - +3.0U; Wk2: +14.3U; Wk3: -0.8U, Wk4: -5.4U; Wk5 : +15.5U; Wk 6 -22.1U (OUCH); WK 7 - +12.3U; Wk 8 - +14.3U; Wk9 - +2.6U; Wk10 to MNF - +48.2U; 646U stake so far)

Well, bounces went the wrong way - Kincaid had 5 catches after 3Q....and nothing (plus a bad drop on his part), and stuck on 51 yards, while Jeudy was wide open on the last key play for 30+ yards and probably a walk in TD if it's not underthrown.   Javonte Williams gets stuck at 79 yards 1 short of the +260 alt line.  So that's 11.6U in swings (and a 3.2U swing if Jeudy gets the TD). Still, that's the game, so while Javonte main line and DEN O19.5 hits, it's a -6U night (ATS/ML +1U, PLAYER PROPS 1-2, -5U, and TD 0-2 for -2U). 

Downer ending, but still an amazing Week 10, can't complain with a +42.2U profit.   On to Week 11! 

WEEK 10 to MNF

ATS/ML: 20-22-2, -0.1U (WK - 4-2, +2.1U )

PLAYER PROPS: 85-76, +99.9U  (WK 10 - 13-6, +44.6U)

LONGSHOT TD: 17-141 - -25.4U  (WK 10 to MNF - 2-14, -4.5U; Wk1 R-Shaheed +600, D-Parham +800 & R-Johnson +900; Wk2 - I-Hodgins +500 & B-Johnson +950 / +7500 2+; Wk3 - R-Bell +2000 & R-Chosen +2100; Wk4: N-Gray +700; Wk8 - D-Ogletree +950 & Parham +400; Wk9 - D-Johnson +300 & J-Johnson +440 & N-Brown +600; Wk10 - T-Chandler +900 & J-Reed +600)

TOTAL - +74.4U (Wk1 - +3.0U; Wk2: +14.3U; Wk3: -0.8U, Wk4: -5.4U; Wk5 : +15.5U; Wk 6 -22.1U (OUCH); WK 7 - +12.3U; Wk 8 - +14.3U; Wk9 - +2.6U; Wk10 to MNF - +42.2U; 656U stake so far)

[Broncofan]

No rest for the weary, TD props are out on all books except for FD, so a couple to take right away:

WEEK 11 TNF

ATS/ML

NEW ADDED WED PM - CIN +160 - close matchup that we now have Marlon Humphrey & Ronnie Stanley out, while CIN somehow gets Trey Hendrickson at full go.  That's a swing that has me taking the +160 side in what I see as a pick 'em.

PLAYER PROPS

Mark Andrews O51.5 rec yds (now 52.5) 2U, 80+ rec yds +280 1U & 100+ rec yds +650 0.5U FD (B365 / US FD bettors - O4.5 catches +110 <2U for me>, & 6-7 catch ladder) - I've targeted CIN's TE pass D before - and Dalton Kincaid went absolutely nuts.   Nothing different here.   Andrews "only" went 5-45 last time vs. CIN, but in the past 4 games vs. CIN he's had 8 targets minimum, and 10+ targets in 3/4 games.    If Ronnie Stanley doesn't play, it doesn't actually limit Andrews, as he doesn't stay in to block, but it emphasizes the short-intermediate pass game more, and that's Andrews.  

NEW ADDED WED PM - Ja'Marr Chase O78.5 rec yds 2U, 110+ rec yds +260 1U DK - with no Humphrey, this is one of the few times I'm willing to take the square play.  The Week 2 game was heavily influenced by Burrow being unable to throw deep or move, with no Humphrey, this is the Chase smash spot. 

LONGSHOT TD

Isaiah Likely +1200 FD (+1100 TheScore) 0.4U / +25000 2+ SportsInteraction (+8000 elsehwhere)  - he's +700 & +800 on DK & Bodog, so can't resist going with those odds on TheScore.   CIN is so bad against TE, and 2 weeks ago against SEA, the BAL O targeted him for 4/42.   Because his snap share was sub-10 percent last week (although CLE has the #1 TE D - why I passed on Trey McBride 2 weeks ago), I can only go with half-stake play.  He's +1100 on TheScore, while he's "only" +700 / +800 on Bodog/DK, so I think the 2-TD prop will be better on TheScore (he's +10000 on both DK/Bodog).

Andre Iosivas +900 / +11000 2+ 0.4U / 0.1U DK - he's still the 4th WR even with Tee Higgins likely out, but unlike this week, BAL is stingy vs. the TE, so I don't count as much 12 formation near the EZ, I think we'll see more Iosivas work like he got vs. ARI and then the single score vs. SF.    Still, as he's not getting regular snaps, the half-stake play is the smarter call.   He's +500 on Bodog and not even listed on TheScore, so I like the value that's already there. EDIT WED PM - RULED OUT, VOID.

ADDED TUES PM - Nelson Agholor +750 / ?? 2+ 0.4U/0.1U TheScore - everywhere else he's +450 to +500, and I think that's right.   NGL it kills me to take a half-stake play on a guy with his hands, but he still get a 40 percent snap count, and CIN is vulnerable to shot plays, which is where they like to use him.   Worth the half-stake play and praying he doesn't drop a gift TD this week lol.

 

NEW ADDED THU PM - Charlie Jones +1500 DK / +20000 2+ 0.4U / 0.1U DK - I'm looking at Charlie Jones now, as he's their clear 4th WR with Iosivas & Tee Higgins out...provided they activate him off IR.  He also returns punts.   But if they don't activate him, then I'll go with Stanley Morgan, as the last body left.  It's probably a donation if it's Morgan, but I just would like to have a small piece of the CIN WR room, given the BAL pass D really changes with no Marlon Humphrey.  Given his IR status clarifies by 4 PM, I'd wait to see what happens and what other books offer; if Jones is inactive, then I'll take Stanley Morgan.   EDIT THU PM:   Jones activated, and DK lists him at a whopping +1500 / +20000 2+ so I'll take the 0.4U / 0.1U play.

 

   So that's 11U on the line for TNF (and if you have B365/US FD, I'd take the 5-6-7 catch ladder for Mark Andrews), and once final injury reports are out, I'll likely have 1 ATS/ML play & at least 1 more player prop.  BOL!

 

Edited November 16, 2023 by Broncofan

[NYRaider]

Took the Ravens, Bills, and Bengals ML and it was absolutely brutal. 

[MikeT14]

Lines this week are tough.