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Weekly Bets Thread


BStanRamFan

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One SNF play for tonight - Collin Johnson +1300 DK (he's +1000 on FD, but with +1500 with Gronk 50% TD boost) 0.8U / +15000 2+ 0.2U DK (also with SNF 50 percent boost) @ HOU.

If you can only get +1000/+10000 2+ I'd do the half-stake play instead of my full stake.  BOL!

Edited by Broncofan
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On 9/12/2024 at 3:00 AM, JaguarCrazy2832 said:

I do like TB with the hook

Pats i can understand the thought, Seattle coming cross-country and all but man arent the Patriots going to be fat and happy after a massive upset W?

Not sure if anyone is buying the Jaguars enough to call it a trap. Its a 3-3.5 pt spread favoring the home team, i suppose Watson feels like an auto-fade though. 

Money baby. Just a shame I blew my

load with the rams… I had picked all the upsets minus the Rams. Would have made over 12k. Colts ruined a few of my parlays. Even had Saints +7 on a ton of them. 

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20 hours ago, iknowcool said:

Part of me really likes the Vikings to pull off an upset, being at home with 49ers coming off a Monday night game.  They won the game last year and held the 49ers to 17 points.  SF didn't have Deebo Samuel that day, but they did have CMC who won't be playing today.  Cousins threw for almost 400 yards against them last year and that was without Justin Jefferson.  No way Darnold pulls that off, but might be a sign that KOC has a good gameplan to attack the 49ers pass defense.

Turned out exactly how last years game went.  Vikings just know how to attack the 49ers defense through the air and whatever Brian Flores is doing on defense works very well against them.  2 years in a row has held them to 17.

I should have put more down on it but didn't want to be too risky.  But it was an upset that made a lot of sense.

Edited by iknowcool
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On 9/13/2024 at 9:29 PM, El Ramster said:

@BStanRamFandid you die? Where did you go! That money came in quick for the Rams. 

Im still here. Handicapping is a side job for me so I post alot on X and in my Discord. I pop in the forum every once in a while to talk Rams.

I publish articles for betting for free on every primetime game. Follow me on X @PropHolliday 

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Somehow had a big 4pm slate and night game and ended Sunday barely in the positive. I'll take a small win over the potential "end of my betting career" I was looking at after the early games. 

Want to send a heartfelt screw you to the cowboys, ravens, and 9ers for all separately ruining big parlays. 

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1 hour ago, JonStark said:

Somehow had a big 4pm slate and night game and ended Sunday barely in the positive. I'll take a small win over the potential "end of my betting career" I was looking at after the early games. 

Want to send a heartfelt screw you to the cowboys, ravens, and 9ers for all separately ruining big parlays. 

It's crazy, dogs win 60% ATS the last 3 years combined.....and EVERYONE was on chalk everywhere.  

The other part - when the public bets 80% on a team, books win something like 57-58% of the time on the opposite end. 

I posted the public bet trends not to say, bet against the public on every bet - but more that if your card looks like the public's on that 80% trend (and 75% I think is similar).....take a 2nd look.    I posted my IND -2.5 play on Monday, thinking it was going to get smashed - and then IND got a ton of injuries to their front 7, and GB's run game massacred them.   I felt like LAC -6.5 was still good (and man was it ever).      At least I saw the trouble coming (I mentioned it here as well).     LAR ML was just a bad read on how LAR's D and OL would hold up (neither did).

Edited by Broncofan
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For MNF, getting in early really helped - Devonta Smith O60.5 rec yds & 80+ yds +210 1U looks like an absolute bargain, with AJ Brown out, he's at O75.5 rec yds for the main line.    Bijan Robinsons rec yds has gone from O27.5 to O29.5 rec yds.  On the flip side, should have waited on PHI -6.5...oh well.    Odds on Ray-Ray Mcleod's TD prop remain unchanged at +650/+9000 2U+ on DK.

I'm adding 2 more player props....


ADDED SEP 16 - Saquon Barkley O75.5 rush yds 2U +125 (MNF DK 50% boost), 96+ rush yds +210 1U DK vs. ATL - sometimes you just gotta take the square bet.    I think PHI -6.5 is winning, that means PHI is closing out the game in the 2H.   And that's a ton of Saquon.       


ADDED SEP 16 - Drake London O57.5 rec yds 2U FD (B365 - 55.5), 76+ rec yds +200 1U DK @ PHI - NGL I'm pretty terrified here, but PIT's pass rush and their pass D is far better than PHI's, so I'm going with their top target.   Kyle Pitts would have been here, but I'm concerned that Kirk Cousins can't throw deep yet, and that's Pitts' main advantage.    
 

 

LONGSHOT TD 

ADDED SEPT 16 Charlie Woerner +2000 DK 0.4U / +25000 2+ TheScore (+20000 2+ DK) 0.1U**  & **Grant Calcaterra +1800 TheScore / +40000 2+ TheScore** (+1400 / +10000 2+ DK) - both play 12 formation as 2nd TE for PHI/ATL, 45 percent snaps.   Yolo play
 


So that's 12U on 4 players prop wise (Devonta Smith at crazy low #'s 060.5 rec yds & 80+ rec yds < before AJ Brown news came out>, Bijan O27.5 rec yds / 50+ rec yds), 1U on PHI -6.5 and half-stake on Ray-Ray Mcleod +650 / +900 TD & the 2 TE2’s above for a 14.5U total stake    BOL tonight!

 

 

 

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