Falconof Shadows Posted April 30, 2021 Share Posted April 30, 2021 16 minutes ago, swoosh said: Would not be to happy with that pick Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CWood21 Posted April 30, 2021 Share Posted April 30, 2021 3 hours ago, Gmen said: Can we for the love of all things good stop talking about the Giants "fleecing" the Bears? It's only a fleece if you're confident they're handing over a top 10 pick. And even then it's questionable until we get a better idea of how the 2022 draft shakes out. The difference between the 11th and 20th pick in the draft is roughly the 50th pick. Guess who picks 51st? Da Bears. So the Bears could have offered their 51st pick and had one more pick in the the top 150 picks. Or they could keep their SRP, and use their FRP next year as trade bait. It was a "fair" trade as far as I'm concerned. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SBLIII Posted April 30, 2021 Share Posted April 30, 2021 16 minutes ago, Falconof Shadows said: Would not be to happy with that pick why is Barmore still not picked? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Falconof Shadows Posted April 30, 2021 Share Posted April 30, 2021 2 minutes ago, SBLIII said: why is Barmore still not picked? He a a 1tech who is bad at run defense. Heck he wasn't even a starter at Bama Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
.Buzz Posted April 30, 2021 Share Posted April 30, 2021 10 minutes ago, SBLIII said: why is Barmore still not picked? There's a lot of concerns around his coachability/off field. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gmen Posted April 30, 2021 Share Posted April 30, 2021 (edited) 21 minutes ago, CWood21 said: Can we for the love of all things good stop talking about the Giants "fleecing" the Bears? It's only a fleece if you're confident they're handing over a top 10 pick. And even then it's questionable until we get a better idea of how the 2022 draft shakes out. The difference between the 11th and 20th pick in the draft is roughly the 50th pick. Guess who picks 51st? Da Bears. So the Bears could have offered their 51st pick and had one more pick in the the top 150 picks. Or they could keep their SRP, and use their FRP next year as trade bait. It was a "fair" trade as far as I'm concerned. We can't! And if I had to bet $1,000 O/U on the Bears picking at 16, I'd take the under. Edited April 30, 2021 by Gmen Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CWood21 Posted April 30, 2021 Share Posted April 30, 2021 1 minute ago, Gmen said: We can't! Except you have to discount future picks because you can't use them right now. It's no different than the time value of money. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gmen Posted April 30, 2021 Share Posted April 30, 2021 Just now, CWood21 said: Except you have to discount future picks because you can't use them right now. It's no different than the time value of money. This is accounted for in the calculation The third most lopsided trade up for a QB since 2002, using four different draft pick value charts. Lee is a Bears fan, FWIW. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CWood21 Posted April 30, 2021 Share Posted April 30, 2021 20 minutes ago, Gmen said: This is accounted for in the calculation The third most lopsided trade up for a QB since 2002, using four different draft pick value charts. Lee is a Bears fan, FWIW. Whatever chart Lee is using, I'm not seeing where he's got his numbers from. I'm going to ignore the 4th round pick for simplicity's sake. And I'm going to use 6 different outcomes (pick #1, pick #16, pick #32, pick #33, pick #48, and pick #64) since there's no consistency on how much you devalue future picks. FWIW, I'm using this link for the TVC. https://www.drafttek.com/NFL-Trade-Value-Chart.asp #1: Giants - 1250 points | Bears - 3874.2 points (Bears surplus value of #2 overall pick) #16: Giants - 1250 points | Bears - 1874.2 points (Bears surplus value of #30 overall pick) #32: Giants - 1250 points | Bears - 1464.2 points (Bears surplus value of #75 overall pick) #33: Giants - 1250 points | Bears - 1454.2 points (Bears surplus value of #77 overall pick) #48: Giants - 1250 points | Bears - 1294.2 points (Bears surplus value of #128 overall pick) #64: Giants - 1250 points | Bears - 1144.2 points (Giants surplus value of #99 overall pick) So the Giants likely do walk away with surplus value on this deal. How much depends on how much you devalue future picks? EDIT: Correct me if I'm wrong, but this is valuing that future FRP and 4th round pick as a late FRP. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gmen Posted April 30, 2021 Share Posted April 30, 2021 1 minute ago, CWood21 said: Whatever chart Lee is using, I'm not seeing where he's got his numbers from. I'm going to ignore the 4th round pick for simplicity's sake. And I'm going to use 6 different outcomes (pick #1, pick #16, pick #32, pick #33, pick #48, and pick #64) since there's no consistency on how much you devalue future picks. FWIW, I'm using this link for the TVC. https://www.drafttek.com/NFL-Trade-Value-Chart.asp #1: Giants - 1250 points | Bears - 3874.2 points (Bears surplus value of #2 overall pick) #16: Giants - 1250 points | Bears - 1874.2 points (Bears surplus value of #30 overall pick) #32: Giants - 1250 points | Bears - 1464.2 points (Bears surplus value of #75 overall pick) #33: Giants - 1250 points | Bears - 1454.2 points (Bears surplus value of #77 overall pick) #48: Giants - 1250 points | Bears - 1294.2 points (Bears surplus value of #128 overall pick) #64: Giants - 1250 points | Bears - 1144.2 points (Giants surplus value of #99 overall pick) So the Giants likely do walk away with surplus value on this deal. How much depends on how much you devalue future picks? 🤷♂️ I don't know man. I posted links from three respected analytics nerds (I use that term with endearment) that seem blown away by the value the Giants got in that trade. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jetjuice Posted April 30, 2021 Share Posted April 30, 2021 44 minutes ago, CWood21 said: Except you have to discount future picks because you can't use them right now. It's no different than the time value of money. As an MBA candidate, I love this. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CWood21 Posted April 30, 2021 Share Posted April 30, 2021 10 minutes ago, Gmen said: 🤷♂️ I don't know man. I posted links from three respected analytics nerds (I use that term with endearment) that seem blown away by the value the Giants got in that trade. I'm merely pointing out that because a reputable source puts together a fancy chart doesn't mean the numbers aren't manipulated. Assuming my math is correct, during the 49ers/Dolphins trade the future picks are valued as the 20th/21st pick in the 2021 NFL Daft. By my math, the future picks in the Bears/Giants trade have the 52nd/53rd value. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gmen Posted April 30, 2021 Share Posted April 30, 2021 11 minutes ago, CWood21 said: I'm merely pointing out that because a reputable source puts together a fancy chart doesn't mean the numbers aren't manipulated. Assuming my math is correct, during the 49ers/Dolphins trade the future picks are valued as the 20th/21st pick in the 2021 NFL Daft. By my math, the future picks in the Bears/Giants trade have the 52nd/53rd value. No offense man, but I trust their math over yours on account of all three do analytics for a living. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CWood21 Posted April 30, 2021 Share Posted April 30, 2021 19 minutes ago, Gmen said: No offense man, but I trust their math over yours on account of all three do analytics for a living. And you're more than welcome to take that stance. But don't be surprised when others disagree with you. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
.Buzz Posted April 30, 2021 Share Posted April 30, 2021 Moving a future 1st for a 9 pick jump in the top half of the 1st for a QB seems like a normal rate to me personally. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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