Mahomes vs Wilson

[Jakuvious]

4 hours ago, Bearerofnews said:

Did you see who the 4 or 5 qbs are with the lowest agg%. They are Devlin, Flacco, Carr and Mahomes. I dont think any of them are great reading defenses.  In Mahomes case, watch all 22. Youll be shocked how many wide open options he has on a majority of his throws. You wont find another qb ever who has that many wide open targets on that many downs. Hey more power to him, he is taking advantage of what the scheme is creating and maximizing it. But lets not act like every qb in the league; starters to 3rd string cant make throws to wide open targets.

What seperates qbs, the truly elite are ones who can and have to make tight window throws.. because not every qb can make those consistently. No one will ever change my mind of that. If Mahomes was producing like he was, while making actual difficult throws... rival or not, id be slurping him up like everyone else.

The next 3 lowest agg% after those 4 are Kirk Cousins, Jared Goff, and Drew Brees.

The closest QBs in agg% to Russel Wilson are Mason Rudolph, Sam Darnold, and Mitchell Trubisky (just below Wilson), and Baker Mayfield, Eli Manning, and David Blough (just above Wilson.)

You've long established you're going to live and die on this hill, but the correlation is never there that you're trying to argue. You constantly act like all the elite QBs have high agg% and only terrible QBs + Mahomes have low agg%, when in reality they're all pretty spread out. Of the best QBs in the league last year, Tannehill and Wilson were top 10 in agg%, Mahomes, Brees, and Cousins were bottom 10 in agg%, while Rodgers, Brady, Jackson, and Watson were somewhere in between. You also had some of the worst QBs in each tier. Hodges and Flacco were bottom 10, Blough and Eli were top 10, Kyle Allen and Mitchell Trubisky somewhere in the middle. There's a pretty even spread. It's a stat that clearly doesn't correlate to quality of play. You pretending that there is doesn't make it right. The only reason this is the stat you choose is because it's the only one in existence that Mahomes is lower half in.

[Jakuvious]

I also, for the record, disagree with the classification of agg% as a measurement of frequency of tight window throws. Agg% is a measurement of throws in which the defender was within 1 yard of the receiver at the time of the pass. In many cases, a pass can fit that qualification without being a tight window throw (imagine a RB screen, for instance, in close quarters), and many cases where a pass can fail that qualification but be a tight window throw (it describes it as the defender being within a yard of the receiver, NOT within a yard of the ball, so something like a TE running a post or a deep in behind a LB in zone coverage may be a tight window where you have to fit the ball over or around the LB, but if the LB is an inch from the ball but 3 yards shallow of the TE, it isn't a tight window throw per agg%.)

Defensive scheme also plays a factor. You're far more likely to have to attempt a throw where a defender is close in man coverage than you are in zone coverage. Difference between throwing to a receiver who has a step and throwing to the open spot in the zone. And no one runs man against us, except back when Mahomes was limping and Hill was inactive.

[JAF-N72EX]

8 minutes ago, Jakuvious said:

I also, for the record, disagree with the classification of agg% as a measurement of frequency of tight window throws. Agg% is a measurement of throws in which the defender was within 1 yard of the receiver at the time of the pass. In many cases, a pass can fit that qualification without being a tight window throw (imagine a RB screen, for instance, in close quarters), and many cases where a pass can fail that qualification but be a tight window throw (it describes it as the defender being within a yard of the receiver, NOT within a yard of the ball, so something like a TE running a post or a deep in behind a LB in zone coverage may be a tight window where you have to fit the ball over or around the LB, but if the LB is an inch from the ball but 3 yards shallow of the TE, it isn't a tight window throw per agg%.)

Defensive scheme also plays a factor. You're far more likely to have to attempt a throw where a defender is close in man coverage than you are in zone coverage. Difference between throwing to a receiver who has a step and throwing to the open spot in the zone. And no one runs man against us, except back when Mahomes was limping and Hill was inactive.

I put the agg% to the test last year by going through every pass using all-22 and matching it to what they considered as 1 yard or less and found a lot of plays that I disagreed with.

And,. I know all-22 has it's flaws in this argument too so I took it into consideration by creating a separate "undetermined" log for plays that I deemed as a grey area.

Edited February 14, 2020 by JustAnotherFan

[Bearerofnews]

8 hours ago, Jakuvious said:

The next 3 lowest agg% after those 4 are Kirk Cousins, Jared Goff, and Drew Brees.

The closest QBs in agg% to Russel Wilson are Mason Rudolph, Sam Darnold, and Mitchell Trubisky (just below Wilson), and Baker Mayfield, Eli Manning, and David Blough (just above Wilson.)

You've long established you're going to live and die on this hill, but the correlation is never there that you're trying to argue. You constantly act like all the elite QBs have high agg% and only terrible QBs + Mahomes have low agg%, when in reality they're all pretty spread out. Of the best QBs in the league last year, Tannehill and Wilson were top 10 in agg%, Mahomes, Brees, and Cousins were bottom 10 in agg%, while Rodgers, Brady, Jackson, and Watson were somewhere in between. You also had some of the worst QBs in each tier. Hodges and Flacco were bottom 10, Blough and Eli were top 10, Kyle Allen and Mitchell Trubisky somewhere in the middle. There's a pretty even spread. It's a stat that clearly doesn't correlate to quality of play. You pretending that there is doesn't make it right. The only reason this is the stat you choose is because it's the only one in existence that Mahomes is lower half in.

You are missing the point. Qbs with high agg% SHOULD NOT HAVE EFFICIENT numbers, because they are throwing more frequently into tight windows, so that is going to effect their efficiency numbers. So it's a direct correlation that these "bad" qbs are "bad" because they are asked to make more low percentage and difficult passes. So when qbs have great efficient numbers with high agg% it is alot more impressive than qbs who have efficient numbers with low agg%. 

It's like rbs who face 8 man fronts at a higher pop vs rbs who dont. It absolutely has a direct correlation to the stats. 100% to say otherwise is utterly insane, honestly. 

[Kip Smithers]

15 hours ago, Bearerofnews said:

Did you see who the 4 or 5 qbs are with the lowest agg%. They are Devlin, Flacco, Carr and Mahomes. I dont think any of them are great reading defenses.  In Mahomes case, watch all 22. Youll be shocked how many wide open options he has on a majority of his throws. You wont find another qb ever who has that many wide open targets on that many downs. Hey more power to him, he is taking advantage of what the scheme is creating and maximizing it. But lets not act like every qb in the league; starters to 3rd string cant make throws to wide open targets.

What seperates qbs, the truly elite are ones who can and have to make tight window throws.. because not every qb can make those consistently. No one will ever change my mind of that. If Mahomes was producing like he was, while making actual difficult throws... rival or not, id be slurping him up like everyone else.

And did you see the two highest are? Point is that the stat can be determined by a lot of these things. 
 

The fact that he isn’t throwing into as many tight windows as say RW is not a knock on him at all. It doesn’t make Russell better. It can be explained by a number of things. If Mahomes is deemed to be a huge beneficiary and somewhat a product of scheme and players around im then im sure this would’ve been illustrated and demonstrated by people who actually break down film for living. Not all open receivers are created the same. 
 

please provide examples to back up your claim 

[Kip Smithers]

2 hours ago, Bearerofnews said:

You are missing the point. Qbs with high agg% SHOULD NOT HAVE EFFICIENT numbers, because they are throwing more frequently into tight windows, so that is going to effect their efficiency numbers. So it's a direct correlation that these "bad" qbs are "bad" because they are asked to make more low percentage and difficult passes. So when qbs have great efficient numbers with high agg% it is alot more impressive than qbs who have efficient numbers with low agg%. 

It's like rbs who face 8 man fronts at a higher pop vs rbs who dont. It absolutely has a direct correlation to the stats. 100% to say otherwise is utterly insane, honestly. 

Not necessarily. It really depends how this aggressiveness is defined and is interpreted Correlation does not equal causation. Otherwise if I was to go by correlation then RW aggressiveness% should’ve dipped this year given how he had better weapons this year than last. Better weapons should lead to easier completions right? 
 

 

[AFlaccoSeagulls]

On 2/14/2020 at 11:10 AM, Kip Smithers said:

Not necessarily. It really depends how this aggressiveness is defined and is interpreted Correlation does not equal causation. Otherwise if I was to go by correlation then RW aggressiveness% should’ve dipped this year given how he had better weapons this year than last. Better weapons should lead to easier completions right? 

Yeah but if you have good weapons then you're overrated because you have good weapons.

[Malik]

On 2/16/2020 at 2:21 AM, AFlaccoSeagulls said:

Yeah but if you have good weapons then you're overrated because you have good weapons.

I mean Patrick Mahomes did get injured so he is definitely overrated

[AFlaccoSeagulls]

14 hours ago, Malik said:

I mean Patrick Mahomes did get injured so he is definitely overrated

And Russell Wilson might get injured so he's also overrated. But who is more overrated?

[TOUCAN]

It's a damn shame this poll is the ratio that it is, a real damn shame.

I am not a Seahawks fan, but even I can see Russ' WR play is inconsistent and at times even destitute. His best weapon is Tyler Lockett, not going to blow anyone out of the water with that revelation. Dissly was a decent piece and then got hurt. But moreso than anything working against Russ? He has the genius that is Brian Schottenheimer working against him it feels like.

Meanwhile in KC, Patrick Mahomes was gifted a head coach who made Kevin Kolb at one point seem like a viable starting option for Arizona, a top 2 TE, a top 10 WR (but like the number one deep threat), and a pretty dang good offensive line.

[TOUCAN]

And let me be clear, that's not an indictment, I think Mahomes is great, but my god it was the literal perfect storm of talent surrounding him.

[Archimedes]

3 hours ago, JoshstraDaymus said:

It's a damn shame this poll is the ratio that it is, a real damn shame.

I am not a Seahawks fan, but even I can see Russ' WR play is inconsistent and at times even destitute. His best weapon is Tyler Lockett, not going to blow anyone out of the water with that revelation. Dissly was a decent piece and then got hurt. But moreso than anything working against Russ? He has the genius that is Brian Schottenheimer working against him it feels like.

Meanwhile in KC, Patrick Mahomes was gifted a head coach who made Kevin Kolb at one point seem like a viable starting option for Arizona, a top 2 TE, a top 10 WR (but like the number one deep threat), and a pretty dang good offensive line.

The ratio in this poll is actually giving Wilson the massive benefit of the doubt. Mahomes has an MVP, a SB MVP, and an 1st team all pro selection, none of which Russ has. Mahomes also holds a statistical advantage in a lot of key relevant metrics over Russ (QBR, ANY/A, and DVOA) not to mention he almost certainly has more arm talent.

Now, I’m not saying it’s an insult to compare Mahomes to RW, because it certainly isn’t. That said, would you assume you could just swap Sean Payton with Belichick on the Saints and Brees would have 6 SBs like Brady?

[TOUCAN]

50 minutes ago, Archimedes said:

The ratio in this poll is actually giving Wilson the massive benefit of the doubt. Mahomes has an MVP, a SB MVP, and an 1st team all pro selection, none of which Russ has. Mahomes also holds a statistical advantage in a lot of key relevant metrics over Russ (QBR, ANY/A, and DVOA) not to mention he almost certainly has more arm talent.

Now, I’m not saying it’s an insult to compare Mahomes to RW, because it certainly isn’t. That said, would you assume you could just swap Sean Payton with Belichick on the Saints and Brees would have 6 SBs like Brady?

If you want my complete and utter honesty on that second front, I would tell you I think the results would be similar if the systems were switched.

[MagicMT]

6 hours ago, JoshstraDaymus said:

It's a damn shame this poll is the ratio that it is, a real damn shame.

I am not a Seahawks fan, but even I can see Russ' WR play is inconsistent and at times even destitute. His best weapon is Tyler Lockett, not going to blow anyone out of the water with that revelation. Dissly was a decent piece and then got hurt. But moreso than anything working against Russ? He has the genius that is Brian Schottenheimer working against him it feels like.

Meanwhile in KC, Patrick Mahomes was gifted a head coach who made Kevin Kolb at one point seem like a viable starting option for Arizona, a top 2 TE, a top 10 WR (but like the number one deep threat), and a pretty dang good offensive line.

I think a bottom 5-10 O-line almost every year of his career is the thing that limits Wilson the most. That and his tendency to take more sacks than necessary. 
And Honestly Schottenheimer hasn't been bad the last 2 years, surprisingly. Maybe a bit too conservative sometimes but certainly not awful.
Comparing anyone to Andy Reid is a bit unfair, as he is one of the best offensive mind to ever coach in the NFL. 
Also, Wilson had D. Baldwin (pretty good WR) for the length of his career, minus last year. 
I feel like you undersell Mahomes a little bit and oversell Wilson just a tad bit (Seahawks fan here). 
For me Mahomes is the best QB in the NFL and Wilson is second (going into next 3-4 years). 

[Kirill]

Patrick Lavon Mahomes II. Next question.