Baltimore trades TE Hayden Hurst to Atlanta

[diamondbull424]

4 hours ago, sp6488 said:

And if it's not there, then maybe they don't draft one. And even if that's true at a macro sense, there's still the possibility that an individual player could represent a value at the time he's picked.

Agreed. I haven’t scouted ALL the TEs from this class, most of which I did weren’t my favorites, but based off of projected rounds and such I was impressed with Josiah Deguara when I looked at his film. Had some Dennis Pitta to his game. What’s more TEs are always filled with guys that seem to develop once they get to the league, clearly no one thought Kelce would be as good as he was as he went in like the 5th round. While I don’t think this is a great class, there are good TE values that can be had in the 4th round especially at that position.

[diamondbull424]

So yeah I still can’t believe we were able to get 2nd round value for Hurst. Replacing Hurst with a legit impact starter I feel is going to be able to take this team to another level.

Edited March 18, 2020 by diamondbull424

[scar988]

On 3/16/2020 at 5:22 PM, drd23 said:

I know a lot of you loved Hurst, but I never warmed to him (probably due to a combination of hating where we drafted him and the fact that he couldn't produce at a 1st round pick level (even if that wasn't entirely his fault)).

I think we got a great haul for him, and can like 80% of his 3rd TE role with a cheap vet or later round draft pick. 

Also means that we won't have to deal with any animosity he might have developed over being outshone by a later round pick from his same draft class

I think it was a bad team-scheme fit for Hurst, if I'm being honest here. And he still produced really well for his TE3 role. I think the Falcons will love him. Better blocker than Hooper and has a more dynamic potential downfield than Hooper did. Hopefully on the 100 targets he'll see, he can produce similar results to the 80 catches, 1,000 yards, 7 TDs we were expecting from Hooper this coming season.

[Danand]

40 minutes ago, scar988 said:

I think it was a bad team-scheme fit for Hurst, if I'm being honest here. And he still produced really well for his TE3 role. I think the Falcons will love him. Better blocker than Hooper and has a more dynamic potential downfield than Hooper did. Hopefully on the 100 targets he'll see, he can produce similar results to the 80 catches, 1,000 yards, 7 TDs we were expecting from Hooper this coming season.

He played 41% of offensive snaps for us, which was basically the same as Mark Andrews, but Hurst saw significant less targets. In several cases he was open though, and he was open before Andrews or other receivers got open. So either the play was never designed to go to Hurst, he wasn't one of the primary reads or Lamar simply trusted Andrews more.

It is most likely a combination of the three, but Hurst could have had a larger role and made a bigger impact and as the primary target in Atlanta, I think he will provide good value.

I also don't think the trade is as bad for Atlanta as some make it out to be, and it should not be compared to the Hopkins trade.

 

[sp6488]

4 minutes ago, Danand said:

He played 41% of offensive snaps for us, which was basically the same as Mark Andrews, but Hurst saw significant less targets. In several cases he was open though, and he was open before Andrews or other receivers got open. So either the play was never designed to go to Hurst, he wasn't one of the primary reads or Lamar simply trusted Andrews more.

It is most likely a combination of the three, but Hurst could have had a larger role and made a bigger impact and as the primary target in Atlanta, I think he will provide good value.

I also don't think the trade is as bad for Atlanta as some make it out to be, and it should not be compared to the Hopkins trade.

 

Exactly. It's similar to claiming every draft pick a team made was bad value because the Pats got Tom Brady in the 6th round. Extreme outliers (in this case an example of poor value) shouldn't be the measuring stick against which all other things are compared.

[SalvadorsDeli]

7 minutes ago, Danand said:

He played 41% of offensive snaps for us, which was basically the same as Mark Andrews, but Hurst saw significant less targets. In several cases he was open though, and he was open before Andrews or other receivers got open. So either the play was never designed to go to Hurst, he wasn't one of the primary reads or Lamar simply trusted Andrews more.

It is most likely a combination of the three, but Hurst could have had a larger role and made a bigger impact and as the primary target in Atlanta, I think he will provide good value.

I also don't think the trade is as bad for Atlanta as some make it out to be, and it should not be compared to the Hopkins trade.

 

I feel like when people bring this up the most obvious answer for this is never included here, even as a contributing factor, which is just also that Andrews did a better job getting open. 

[scar988]

12 minutes ago, Danand said:

He played 41% of offensive snaps for us, which was basically the same as Mark Andrews, but Hurst saw significant less targets. In several cases he was open though, and he was open before Andrews or other receivers got open. So either the play was never designed to go to Hurst, he wasn't one of the primary reads or Lamar simply trusted Andrews more.

It is most likely a combination of the three, but Hurst could have had a larger role and made a bigger impact and as the primary target in Atlanta, I think he will provide good value.

I also don't think the trade is as bad for Atlanta as some make it out to be, and it should not be compared to the Hopkins trade.

 

I watched a lot of Hurst. He's open on almost every play right when he should be for the first and second read. I don't know what else he needs to do. Ryan loves throwing to TEs and I think Hurst should have a much better season this year as a TE1.

[sp6488]

6 minutes ago, scar988 said:

I watched a lot of Hurst. He's open on almost every play right when he should be for the first and second read. I don't know what else he needs to do. Ryan loves throwing to TEs and I think Hurst should have a much better season this year as a TE1.

Yea, I think he may be the huge fantasy sleeper that's no longer a sleeper by the time teams are drafting. 

[Ray Reed]

1 hour ago, diamondbull424 said:

So yeah I still can’t believe we were able to get 2nd round value for Hurst. Replacing Hurst with a legit impact starter I feel is going to be able to take this team to another level.

My thing is- 

Unless we use that 2nd rounder to help us move up in the first, how confident are you in that pick getting us a “legit impact starter?”

There have been so many years in the past where we just pencil in whoever our 2nd round pick was that year as a legit player and like 90% of the time it doesn’t work out.

[SalvadorsDeli]

Just now, Ray Reed said:

My thing is- 

Unless we use that 2nd rounder to help us move up in the first, how confident are you in that pick getting us a “legit impact starter?”

There have been so many years in the past where we just pencil in whoever our 2nd round pick was that year as a legit player and like 90% of the time it doesn’t work out.

Counterpoint: EDC has literally never gotten to use a 2nd round draft pick before. Obviously we don't have a strong history in that regard but that was a.) under a different GM (even though EDC was involved) and b.) the whole 2nd round voodoo probably just comes down to being a weird coincidence to begin with, considering we're a good drafting team overall historically. 

[Ray Reed]

14 minutes ago, BaltimoreTerp said:

Counterpoint: EDC has literally never gotten to use a 2nd round draft pick before. Obviously we don't have a strong history in that regard but that was a.) under a different GM (even though EDC was involved) and b.) the whole 2nd round voodoo probably just comes down to being a weird coincidence to begin with, considering we're a good drafting team overall historically. 

No doubt.

Though to be fair Eric’s “2nd rounders” (the guys he traded down/up to get on the 2nd day - maybe i should refer to these two as his “day 2ers” instead) last year were Jaylon and Miles and i think most of us thought that at least Jaylon would be a bit more productive throughout the season. 

I’ll definitely be super excited with whoever we pick in the 2nd round. I’ll definitely amp myself up on them making a big impact on this team.

But in the back of my mind it’s going to be a situation where - for my own health - i can’t blindly pencil them in as a great pick/legit impact player after having done the same with the Arthur Browns/Tyus Bowsers/Correas/Maxx Williams’ recently...and even going back further to the Dan Codys/Kindles/Adam Terrys/Dwan Edwards of the world - and i think that’s what a lot of fans are prematurely doing with that pick we got for Hayden.

100% worth the value we got. But I can’t in good faith just assume that pick’s going to turn into a key component for this team at one of our big areas of need (IOL/EDGE/LB)

Edited March 18, 2020 by Ray Reed

[sp6488]

1 hour ago, BaltimoreTerp said:

Counterpoint: EDC has literally never gotten to use a 2nd round draft pick before. Obviously we don't have a strong history in that regard but that was a.) under a different GM (even though EDC was involved) and b.) the whole 2nd round voodoo probably just comes down to being a weird coincidence to begin with, considering we're a good drafting team overall historically. 

To your point, the whole second round thing is largely a recent phenomenon*. I wouldn't be shocked if there was at least a little something to it. Namely that the team may be taking home run swings in that round recently (as a matter of strategy) with high ceiling/low floor guys and the probabilities simply not playing out in their favor recently.

Past notable Ravens second round successes:

Jamie Sharper, Kim Herring, Gary Baxter, Anthony Weaver, Dwan Edwards, Chris Chester, Ray Rice, Paul Kruger, Torrey Sith, Courtney Upshaw, Kelechi Osemele; I'd also put Timmy Jernigan just outside the definition of "successful"

Most notably, though, we haven't had a 2nd rounder in the last two drafts because we used them to move to pick #32 in 2018 to draft the unanimous MVP, which is quite a valuable use of those two picks IMO.

Edited March 18, 2020 by sp6488

[sp6488]

1 hour ago, Ray Reed said:

No doubt.

Though to be fair Eric’s “2nd rounders” (the guys he traded down/up to get on the 2nd day - maybe i should refer to these two as his “day 2ers” instead) last year were Jaylon and Miles and i think most of us thought that at least Jaylon would be a bit more productive throughout the season. 

I’ll definitely be super excited with whoever we pick in the 2nd round. I’ll definitely amp myself up on them making a big impact on this team.

But in the back of my mind it’s going to be a situation where - for my own health - i can’t blindly pencil them in as a great pick/legit impact player after having done the same with the Arthur Browns/Tyus Bowsers/Correas/Maxx Williams’ recently...and even going back further to the Dan Codys/Kindles/Adam Terrys/Dwan Edwards of the world - and i think that’s what a lot of fans are prematurely doing with that pick we got for Hayden.

100% worth the value we got. But I can’t in good faith just assume that pick’s going to turn into a key component for this team at one of our big areas of need (IOL/EDGE/LB)

One quibble, Dwan Edwards was a decent player.

Sometimes I think we overstate the hit probability of draft picks in general. This is probably a symptom of (1) the Ravens generally drafting well historically, creating elevated expectations generally and (2) it's not as noticeable when other teams' players fail to make expected impact (thus we miss valuable perspective).

Using Dwan Edwards as an example... Based on profootballreference's AV measure*, there were only 7 players (out of 31) in the 2004 2nd round with greater career AV than Edwards. Admittedly, a fair amount of that was accumulated post-Ravens, but even counting just AV accumulated with drafting team, he's #16 of 31 (thus 15 ahead of him). So, by this quick measure, his tenure with the drafting team was exactly at the median for a 2004 2nd round pick and his total career was in the top quartile. If we take a step back, I think that counts as at least holding serve on the round in terms of evaluating the FO's performance.

*AV is obviously not a perfect measure by any stretch, but useful for this exercise - further, gap-filling DE/DT are probably among the most underrated by this measure, so if it's wrong it's likely in a direction that helps the case here.

Edited March 18, 2020 by sp6488

[wackywabbit]

19 minutes ago, sp6488 said:

Past notable Ravens second round successes:

Jamie Sharper, Kim Herring, Gary Baxter, Anthony Weaver, Dwan Edwards, Chris Chester, Ray Rice, Paul Kruger, Torrey Sith, Courtney Upshaw, Kelechi Osemele; I'd also put Timmy Jernigan just outside the definition of "successful"

I'd call Jernigan a pretty good value for his draft slot. 3 years of rotational to starter impact play and then returning a pick one round lower than orginal draft slot.

Also will repeat that our last 2 second round picks directly turned into an MVP quarterback, so that has skyrocket the value we've gotten from having a 2nd round pick.

[sp6488]

4 minutes ago, wackywabbit said:

I'd call Jernigan a pretty good value for his draft slot. 3 years of rotational to starter impact play and then returning a pick one round lower than orginal draft slot.

Also will repeat that our last 2 second round picks directly turned into an MVP quarterback, so that has skyrocket the value we've gotten from having a 2nd round pick.

I agree. I was trying to err on the side of conservative judgement/evaluation criteria to make the case that even if you define success somewhat narrowly, there's been a lot of good (even great) picks in the round by the FO (of which EDC has been a part for a very long time).