mission27 Posted April 8, 2020 Share Posted April 8, 2020 (edited) For those who are curious how we are doing on the MoL timeline, I would say we are tracking about 10 days or 1-2 weeks behind Europe Below plots the MoLs of Italy, New York, and the USA overall assuming a 10 day lag... as you can see over the past week and a half we are tracking very closely to where Italy was 10 days ago: Note Italy's peak in new cases was March 26th and the US peak so far was April 4th (9 days later) which may very well end up being our highest new case number when this is all said and done, although we might hit that number or slightly higher a few times, I doubt we are going much higher than that Edited April 8, 2020 by mission27 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daboyle Posted April 8, 2020 Share Posted April 8, 2020 @mission27 @TLO any chance you can add VA to tomorrow’s MoL rankings? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
naptownskinsfan Posted April 8, 2020 Share Posted April 8, 2020 3 hours ago, MWil23 said: My sister is a night nurse (hospital) that's considering a 21 day contract helping COVID 19 patients in NY City. She's young (mid twenties), healthy, no kids, and no immuno compromised. It's a big decision for her to make, but I'm proud of her for considering it. They going to put her up in a hotel or somewhere to stay on her own? Provide food so she doesn't have to go out? It's a huge risk but if they are providing things like that, it will mitigate some of the risk that can be avoided. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mission27 Posted April 8, 2020 Share Posted April 8, 2020 12 minutes ago, naptownskinsfan said: Maryland is falling in this, and yet our Governor (who has been ahead of this since the start) is saying we have our peak in a week. I guess he is being pessimistic with what he is telling everyone to keep them indoors. The numbers don't add up to what he is saying. I think its completely consistent with what he's saying tbh Early in an outbreak cases are growing exponentially, in order to hit a 'peak' whether that be most daily new cases, most deaths, or most active cases you need to slow the spread way down Once you hit your peak that means things have already slowed way way down and cases are about to start falling Maryland has probably already peaked in the sense of daily new cases or is at the peak right now (I wouldn't focus too much on one day), given there were about as many new cases today as there were last Tuesday and a few higher days in between. You're probably a few days to a week away from peaking in terms of active cases / active hospitalization and daily deaths, like Hogan is saying. In that sense this is the most critical time for people to stay home because there are probably more cases in the community right now than there were a week ago or will be in 2-3 weeks. And even once you hit that apex, it may take weeks or a month plus before you can start opening things back up. But the first step is to slow the spread so that you can hit that apex and start seeing your numbers come down, Europe has clearly hit the apex and the US doesn't seem to be far behind. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mission27 Posted April 8, 2020 Share Posted April 8, 2020 15 minutes ago, daboyle250 said: @mission27 @TLO any chance you can add VA to tomorrow’s MoL rankings? Yep we will add them. Not surprisingly they look almost identical to the Maryland numbers: 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kingseanjohn Posted April 8, 2020 Share Posted April 8, 2020 @mission27 How about Missouri? At one point they said they were going to quit testing a larger county because they knew there was community spread. So we have to be higher than reported. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mission27 Posted April 8, 2020 Share Posted April 8, 2020 (edited) 14 minutes ago, kingseanjohn said: @mission27 How about Missouri? At one point they said they were going to quit testing a larger county because they knew there was community spread. So we have to be higher than reported. I'll add you going forward: I'm not sure if you guys have peaked in daily new cases yet but definitely slowing down, its hard to tell but your weekend numbers seem a bit sketchy MO's done about 5k tests per million people compared to 6k USA average but clearly haven't been hit quite as hard as some other parts of the country. And about 10% of your cases have come back positive compared to 19% USA average, 18% in Italy, 21% in the UK, 40% in Spain, 49% (!!!!) in France. So from that perspective I'd say your testing has probably been pretty good. If you're testing that many people who don't have it you're probably catching more of the people who do have it than most places. And of course MO's state abbreviation is the first two letters of MoL, you'd have to think that would count for something EDIT: BTW to @vikesfan89 point the other day the 49% in France is the reason their data is all over the place. Their testing is way behind other countries on a relative basis (they've tested around the same portion of their population as the UK but seem to have closer to Spain or Italy levels of their population infected) and as that improves you're going to see big spikes in their numbers even though they are probably slowing down along with the rest of Europe. Edited April 8, 2020 by mission27 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swoosh Posted April 8, 2020 Share Posted April 8, 2020 @mission should I be wearing bubble wrap from head-to-toe when I go outside? i'm from cali btw. thanks for reading. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daboyle Posted April 8, 2020 Share Posted April 8, 2020 38 minutes ago, mission27 said: Yep we will add them. Not surprisingly they look almost identical to the Maryland numbers: You know, I was always a big supporter of the MoL. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mission27 Posted April 8, 2020 Share Posted April 8, 2020 10 minutes ago, swoosh said: @mission should I be wearing bubble wrap from head-to-toe when I go outside? i'm from cali btw. thanks for reading. Cali seems to be doing fine, but @TLO is the real expert in that department Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mission27 Posted April 8, 2020 Share Posted April 8, 2020 2 minutes ago, daboyle250 said: You know, I was always a big supporter of the MoL. We appreciate all our supporters, we have the best supporters of anyone on FF frankly, including Webby 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TLO Posted April 8, 2020 Share Posted April 8, 2020 45 minutes ago, mission27 said: Cali seems to be doing fine, but @TLO is the real expert in that department I’d say nothing more than a small mask at this point. Altho overall I wouldn’t go outside tbh 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mission27 Posted April 8, 2020 Share Posted April 8, 2020 Just now, TLO said: I’d say nothing more than a small mask at this point. Altho overall I wouldn’t go outside tbh Easy to say when you stay at home staring into the mirror anyway... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikemike778 Posted April 8, 2020 Share Posted April 8, 2020 Just seen this , what are the MoL ratings ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WizeGuy Posted April 8, 2020 Share Posted April 8, 2020 6 hours ago, mission27 said: For those who are curious how we are doing on the MoL timeline, I would say we are tracking about 10 days or 1-2 weeks behind Europe Below plots the MoLs of Italy, New York, and the USA overall assuming a 10 day lag... as you can see over the past week and a half we are tracking very closely to where Italy was 10 days ago: Note Italy's peak in new cases was March 26th and the US peak so far was April 4th (9 days later) which may very well end up being our highest new case number when this is all said and done, although we might hit that number or slightly higher a few times, I doubt we are going much higher than that I wonder how much Florida is going to skew these results. As far as I know, they aren't in their peak yet, and their Governor hasn't handled the outbreak well at all. We could see little spikes as this virus hits different areas of the US. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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