Coronavirus (COVID-19)

[mission27]

Just now, ramssuperbowl99 said:

Which I took to mean "would fit the second set of data quite well". And on a 50/50 split it should tbh.

Epidemiological models have extremely large margin of error tho tbh

[ramssuperbowl99]

1 minute ago, mission27 said:

Epidemiological models have extremely large margin of error tho tbh

Statement still applies the context of the world "well" varies by field.

[naptownskinsfan]

2 hours ago, mistakey said:

yeah, but the disruptions in the food supply is a very real thing.  

All over the world.  The food supply is a global issue and affects more than just the borders of the country we live in.  Whether it's food banks not getting donations because we don't have the disposable income to help them, or third-world countries being left without support because of the problems inside countries that usually help them.  Lots of outreach groups are really struggling right now- food banks, homeless shelters and churches are not getting the financial or supply help that they were used to for over a decade right now, and they are helping so many more people than they were two months prior.  

[naptownskinsfan]

2 hours ago, mission27 said:

There were ventilators in New York that went unused. 

I'm not saying it was inappropriate to ramp up ventilator production and stock up.  But the fears that NYC would be Bergamo and we'd be pulling elderly people off vents because we needed them for younger people didn't really come true. 

And the CFR thing is indisputable at this point.  Every single antibody study has suggested CFR in the range MoL was saying from day 1.  It isn't our numbers, it California's numbers, New York's numbers, Germany's numbers, etc. 

Exactly.  The hospital ships were barely used.  Field hospitals ordered open by governors are closing up without ever seeing a patient.  Hospitals are now laying off employees in droves because there are no elective surgeries right now, and that's what most of them pull their money in from.  The surge hasn't happened in most places, and most likely won't.  At least we now have the excess of ventilators that can be shifted around based on need, and hospitals could immediately end elective events in case of large outbreaks to have more rooms available for Covid patients.

Meanwhile, we just shut the doors of nursing homes, letting it spread like wildfire, and it accounts for quite a few cases in most states on the east coast.  A friend of mine put the numbers together a few days ago with the data available.  If you count the prison number in Ohio, I'm pretty sure that would put Ohio over 50% too for super confined, closed facility type deaths.

[mission27]

BREAKING: Newsom to begin re-opening California on Friday, per @TLO

[mission27]

2 minutes ago, naptownskinsfan said:

Exactly.  The hospital ships were barely used.  Field hospitals ordered open by governors are closing up without ever seeing a patient.  Hospitals are now laying off employees in droves because there are no elective surgeries right now, and that's what most of them pull their money in from.  The surge hasn't happened in most places, and most likely won't.  At least we now have the excess of ventilators that can be shifted around based on need, and hospitals could immediately end elective events in case of large outbreaks to have more rooms available for Covid patients.

Meanwhile, we just shut the doors of nursing homes, letting it spread like wildfire, and it accounts for quite a few cases in most states on the east coast.  A friend of mine put the numbers together a few days ago with the data available.  If you count the prison number in Ohio, I'm pretty sure that would put Ohio over 50% too for super confined, closed facility type deaths.

Yep its messed up

We need to focus on the real issues here like nursing homes instead of a borderline religious focus on the blunt instrument approach of lockdown.  Lockdown was needed in some areas and gave us some time to triage the situation and learn, but it cant go on forever and was never meant to go on forever

If even Newsom is willing to start opening things back up, then the radicals have lost the war,

[naptownskinsfan]

21 minutes ago, ramssuperbowl99 said:

I'm asking about the context for this figure again. What assumptions did the UN make when they projected this?

This wasn't the original article but it might work to answer your questions 

https://www.wfp.org/news/covid-19-will-double-number-people-facing-food-crises-unless-swift-action-taken

Here is another 

https://news.un.org/en/story/2020/04/1062272

[ramssuperbowl99]

3 minutes ago, naptownskinsfan said:

This wasn't the original article but it might work to answer your questions 

https://www.wfp.org/news/covid-19-will-double-number-people-facing-food-crises-unless-swift-action-taken

Here is another https://news.un.org/en/story/2020/04/1062272

Here are some longer remarks:

https://www.wfp.org/news/wfp-chief-warns-hunger-pandemic-covid-19-spreads-statement-un-security-council

Quote

But we need to do so much more, and I urge this Council to lead the way. First and foremost, we need peace. As the Secretary-General recently said very clearly, a global ceasefire is essential.  

Second, we need all parties involved in conflicts to give us swift and unimpeded humanitarian access to all vulnerable communities, so they can get the assistance to them that they need, regardless of who they are or where they are. We also need in a very general sense humanitarian goods and commercial trade to continue flowing across borders, because they are the lifeline of global food systems as well as the global economy. Supply chains have to keep moving if we are going to overcome this pandemic and get food from where it is produced to where it is needed. It also means resisting the temptation to introduce export bans or import subsidies, which can lead to price hikes and almost always backfire. 

WFP is working hand in glove with governments to build and strengthen national safety nets. This is critical right now to ensure fair access to assistance and help maintain peace and prevent rising tensions among communities.  

Third, we need coordinated action to support life-saving humanitarian assistance. For example, WFP is implementing plans to pre-position three months’ worth of food and cash to serve country operations identified as priorities. We are asking donors to accelerate the (US) $1.9 billion in funding that has already been pledged, so we can build stockpiles and create these life-saving buffers, and protect the most vulnerable from the effects of supply chain disruptions, commodity shortages, economic damage and lockdowns. You understand exactly what I’m talking about.

We are also requesting a further USD350 million to set up a network of logistics hubs and transport systems to keep humanitarian supply chains moving around the world. They will also provide field hospitals and medical evacuations to the frontline humanitarian and health workers, as needed and strategically.

Excellencies, two years ago the Security Council took a landmark step when it recognized, and condemned, the devastating human toll of conflict paid in poverty and hunger. Resolution 2417 also highlighted the need for early warning systems, and today I am here to raise that alarm.  

There are no famines yet. But I must warn you that if we don’t prepare and act now – to secure access, avoid funding shortfalls and disruptions to trade - we could be facing multiple famines of biblical proportions within a short few months.  

The actions we take will determine our success, or failure, in building sustainable food systems as the basis of stable and peaceful societies. The truth is, we do not have time on our side, so let’s act wisely – and let’s act fast. I do believe that with our expertise and partnerships, we can bring together the teams and the programs necessary to make certain the COVID-19 pandemic does not become a humanitarian and food crisis catastrophe.  So Mr. President, thank you, thank you very much.

 

Interesting that the prospect of re-opening wasn't brought up as an action item here. While they don't show their data, their proposed response to this issue means I think we can infer that was a "nothing is done, absolute worst case scenario" projection. Which is still a very troubling number. 

 

We're 6 weeks into this and the food supply chain seems to be the only thing that absolutely needs to be back to normal ASAP so far. 

[mistakey]

1 hour ago, mission27 said:

They are purposefully releasing overly pessimistic projections that show a huge spike in cases so that when the spike doesn't materialize they can say how great of a job they did

Its counter programming to all the blow back over the last few weeks about going over 60k cases

bookmarking this guy

[theJ]

47 minutes ago, naptownskinsfan said:

Exactly.  The hospital ships were barely used.  Field hospitals ordered open by governors are closing up without ever seeing a patient.  Hospitals are now laying off employees in droves because there are no elective surgeries right now, and that's what most of them pull their money in from.  The surge hasn't happened in most places, and most likely won't.  At least we now have the excess of ventilators that can be shifted around based on need, and hospitals could immediately end elective events in case of large outbreaks to have more rooms available for Covid patients.

Meanwhile, we just shut the doors of nursing homes, letting it spread like wildfire, and it accounts for quite a few cases in most states on the east coast.  A friend of mine put the numbers together a few days ago with the data available.  If you count the prison number in Ohio, I'm pretty sure that would put Ohio over 50% too for super confined, closed facility type deaths.

Ah that's interesting.

That's good supporting data that the lockdown needs to be modified to better target where the real dangers are.

 

[theJ]

1 hour ago, N4L said:

The people who are saying "we need to reopen asap" need to explicitly state the number of dead bodies they are comfortable with. Is 50k the acceptable number? 100K? 500k? What is the level that lawmakers should deep 'acceptable'?? 

I know it sounds like an overreaction on my part when you say it like that, but taking anything other than this position is unrealistic. This is what the 'lets reopen immediately' crowd is missing. There will be hundreds of thousands of more deaths in the US over the next 4-5 months if we do not continue down the only method we currently have to stop the spread, a nearly full lockdown, strict social distancing, and preventative measures (masks, handwashing etc). 

I understand that it is not black and white, there are certain groups of people that should be able to take measured risks if they adhere to the guidelines, certain business types that are not necessarily 'essential' that could 'open up' and be 'fine' but the problem is that the people who are calling for 'opening up' don't seem to want to adhere to these guidelines, which is extremely ignorant 

There's no black and white answer here.  Because for every life you save on the front end by keeping the lock down, you could be sacrificing another on the back end due to the disruption to the food chain.  There's a tipping point at some point, with the right balance of who goes back to work when, but it's impossible to define.  So lawmakers are just trying to make their best guess with the data they have.

Those you see stating they want to see things re-opened immediately are those who lives have been severely impacted by this, and want to get back to "normal".  Their reaction is understandable, and quite frankly predictable.  We should all be trying to find a way to placate that, and not dismiss it.  Because they're not going to go away, and more are going to join those ranks every day.  Yelling at them to stop isn't going to solve the problem.

[Xenos]

1 hour ago, mission27 said:

BREAKING: Newsom to begin re-opening California on Friday, per @TLO

Phase II only. Though some counties may have the ability to slow or accelerate the process.

[Xenos]

1 hour ago, mission27 said:

Yep its messed up

We need to focus on the real issues here like nursing homes instead of a borderline religious focus on the blunt instrument approach of lockdown.  Lockdown was needed in some areas and gave us some time to triage the situation and learn, but it cant go on forever and was never meant to go on forever

If even Newsom is willing to start opening things back up, then the radicals have lost the war,

Still not sure why you give Newsom so much grief considering your projection was always sometimes in mid May.

[Shanedorf]

1 hour ago, naptownskinsfan said:

I posted this late last week, but the UN is projecting an additional 150 million people around the world will be at starvation hunger levels by the end of the year due to Covid-19

yeah, that was a sobering number.
Did they say anything about the number of people facing starvation is during non-covid times ?
They say "an additional 150 M" but I can't remember the typical amount
The US has an incredible network of food supply, other countries aren't in nearly as good of shape and hunger is a part of daily life in some places.

On the other side of the coin, most other countries aren't as centralized and factory-ish on their food processing. Corporate America wiped out many of the regional processors in order to have 1 or 2 immense plants - and maybe that isn't the strategy going forward. It might be more expensive, but it may offer greater flexibility. Right now if one plant gets salmonella, its a major disruption whereas if there were several smaller plants, we can absorb one going on shutdown.
They could literally cycle open and closed for each of many plants, whereas with only a few - that's a bigger challenge.
I hope we learn some valuable lessons on this one, but I kinda doubt it.

[mission27]

12 minutes ago, Xenos said:

Still not sure why you give Newsom so much grief considering your projection was always sometimes in mid May.

Its the stuff he chooses to focus on and the fact that his re-opening phases don't make a ton of sense (e.g. we need to re-open hair salons if we want people to go back to work, period)