theJ Posted March 24, 2020 Share Posted March 24, 2020 7 minutes ago, mistakey said: yeah it is. whats 10% of 100? whats 10% of 1000? same rate increase.its what happens when you funnel all flights from other countries into JFK its also what happens when NYC tests more than any other state and actually more per capita than S. Korea. They're just finding their cases. By my calculator, NYC has cases at a rate of 40x of Toledo. Maybe that's testing. But i imagine it's more to do with what you said in the bold. Not saying that areas not affected at the moment shouldn't respond. But the response so far has been for everyone to hoard everything, and not share resources where they're needed the most. That's driven by panic, and people in leadership and in the medical community should be giving more measured, and calm advice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mistakey Posted March 24, 2020 Share Posted March 24, 2020 2 minutes ago, theJ said: Time will tell on that one. On one side, it's protecting people from getting sick. On the other side, it's hurting people who live paycheck to paycheck and won't be able to pay bills next week. Best case scenario on the latter is that it only hurts us economically. Worst case scenario is that this drags on for months or a year, and there are literally riots that also kill people. None of this is good, and we can't act like there aren't major downsides to shutting down the economy. The fact is that we'll never know the right answer, because we'll never be able to trace cause/effect well enough. Everyone is just doing the best they can. this is coming to ohio. this is coming to the rest of the united states, regardless of whether or not you think it will. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ragnar Danneskjold Posted March 24, 2020 Share Posted March 24, 2020 3 minutes ago, mistakey said: yeah it is. whats 10% of 100? whats 10% of 1000? same rate increase. its what happens when you funnel all flights from other countries into JFK its also what happens when NYC tests more than any other state and actually more per capita than S. Korea. They're just finding their cases. There have been some papers looking at the spread in China. Wuhan was early in its exposure, and had a very high mortality rate. The mortality rate in outlying areas was much less. The difference appeared to be roughly 12% in Wuhan, and 1% in the outlying areas. The conclusion of the study suggested that the higher mortality rate was due to breakdown of the health system in Wuhan, where the outlying areas did not face the same surge level due to collective action occurring at an earlier time in the local outbreak. In theory, distribution of medical equipment could be a big issue in this country. It is hard to say for sure, because the current low level areas taking collective action will still need supplies, so it is hard to say that they have surplus while New York doesn't have enough. It is an interesting idea though, to create a mobile supply of ventilators that can move regionally if the surges occur at different times in different regions. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mistakey Posted March 24, 2020 Share Posted March 24, 2020 Just now, theJ said: By my calculator, NYC has cases at a rate of 40x of Toledo. Maybe that's testing. But i imagine it's more to do with what you said in the bold. Not saying that areas not affected at the moment shouldn't respond. But the response so far has been for everyone to hoard everything, and not share resources where they're needed the most. That's driven by panic, and people in leadership and in the medical community should be giving more measured, and calm advice. maybe the fact that the doctors are freaking the f out should tell you something. . . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
theJ Posted March 24, 2020 Share Posted March 24, 2020 Just now, mistakey said: maybe the fact that the doctors are freaking the f out should tell you something. . . Yes, i get it, it's bad. But adding additional panic to the public isn't helping. It's just making people hoard resources when they don't need them. Food, medical equipment, etc. There's enough if we share, but a severe lack if we all panic and hoard. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
theJ Posted March 24, 2020 Share Posted March 24, 2020 3 minutes ago, mistakey said: this is coming to ohio. this is coming to the rest of the united states, regardless of whether or not you think it will. But not today. It's coming later. So those unaffected should be trying to help (as well as prepare). Not just hoard. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mistakey Posted March 24, 2020 Share Posted March 24, 2020 Just now, theJ said: But not today. It's coming later. So those unaffected should be trying to help (as well as prepare). Not just hoard. yep. what do you wanna do? have the medical people lie? not enough people are taking their warning seriously even when they are saying the truth. its not their fault that there is a lack of leadership. they literally just tell the truth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mistakey Posted March 24, 2020 Share Posted March 24, 2020 6 minutes ago, Ragnar Danneskjold said: There have been some papers looking at the spread in China. Wuhan was early in its exposure, and had a very high mortality rate. The mortality rate in outlying areas was much less. The difference appeared to be roughly 12% in Wuhan, and 1% in the outlying areas. The conclusion of the study suggested that the higher mortality rate was due to breakdown of the health system in Wuhan, where the outlying areas did not face the same surge level due to collective action occurring at an earlier time in the local outbreak. In theory, distribution of medical equipment could be a big issue in this country. It is hard to say for sure, because the current low level areas taking collective action will still need supplies, so it is hard to say that they have surplus while New York doesn't have enough. It is an interesting idea though, to create a mobile supply of ventilators that can move regionally if the surges occur at different times in different regions. you know that china doesnt count a case if they do not show symptoms, even if htey have a positive test? that tells u all u need to know about their numbers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dtait93 Posted March 24, 2020 Share Posted March 24, 2020 1 minute ago, mistakey said: you know that china doesnt count a case if they do not show symptoms, even if htey have a positive test? that tells u all u need to know about their numbers. Not surprising considering it’s China... but do you have a source for that? I’d like to read it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mistakey Posted March 24, 2020 Share Posted March 24, 2020 Just now, dtait93 said: Not surprising considering it’s China... but do you have a source for that? I’d like to read it let me see if i can find it again 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mistakey Posted March 24, 2020 Share Posted March 24, 2020 1 minute ago, dtait93 said: Not surprising considering it’s China... but do you have a source for that? I’d like to read it https://www.nytimes.com/2020/02/12/world/asia/china-coronavirus-cases.html 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ragnar Danneskjold Posted March 24, 2020 Share Posted March 24, 2020 Just now, mistakey said: you know that china doesnt count a case if they do not show symptoms, even if htey have a positive test? that tells u all u need to know about their numbers. But this is a irrelevant to the point. There is pretty good data on the treated cases and the size of the surge in the affected areas. The asymptomatic cases don't affect the numbers in the study. I find it humerus that professional epidemiologists publishing peer reviewed data get passed off so quickly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mistakey Posted March 24, 2020 Share Posted March 24, 2020 (edited) 2 minutes ago, Ragnar Danneskjold said: But this is a irrelevant to the point. There is pretty good data on the treated cases and the size of the surge in the affected areas. The asymptomatic cases don't affect the numbers in the study. I find it humerus that professional epidemiologists publishing peer reviewed data get passed off so quickly. its not irrelevant. why would you trust anything coming out of china right now? regardless, nys is the state taking this the most seriously, and they're competing with other states for ventilators, beds and PPE, and tbh, theyre getting them. why do you have any hope that rural hospitals in the heartland of america will have any left by the time it gets there? someone hasn't enacted hte federal defense production act to make ventilators yet. that being said this is good news for the rest of hte country: Edited March 24, 2020 by mistakey Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ragnar Danneskjold Posted March 24, 2020 Share Posted March 24, 2020 16 minutes ago, mistakey said: its not irrelevant. why would you trust anything coming out of china right now? regardless, nys is the state taking this the most seriously, and they're competing with other states for ventilators, beds and PPE, and tbh, theyre getting them. why do you have any hope that rural hospitals in the heartland of america will have any left by the time it gets there? someone hasn't enacted hte federal defense production act to make ventilators yet. that being said this is good news for the rest of hte country: https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/eid/article/26/6/20-0233_article I have hope because for many areas of the country, social distancing has been implemented much earlier in the process. I think if you go back to my original post, it is very similar to the tweet you post from Cuomo, so I am not sure what your argument is. We have good data that institution of social distancing early in the outbreak can modify the surge levels, which is why I have hope that many areas of the country, with proper intervention, can successfully avoid disaster. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ramssuperbowl99 Posted March 24, 2020 Share Posted March 24, 2020 42 minutes ago, mistakey said: this is coming to ohio. this is coming to the rest of the united states, regardless of whether or not you think it will. 14-21 day peak seems like good news, all things considered. It means we should be able to focus on saving lives now without having the economy completely fall off the rails. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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