BobbyPhil1781 Posted June 10, 2020 Share Posted June 10, 2020 (edited) 2 minutes ago, MWil23 said: Reminder though, the entire premise of my second statement was "If we don't see a major spike in the next 10-14 days". I get that but I'm saying the spike in case is inevitable but I'll be looking for if there's a spike in hospital admissions due to the severity of the infection if the virus is just as strong as it initially was when introduced to our society. If we see a spike in cases but not admissions, I agree w/ you that we should start to go w/ our daily lives. If we see a spike in cases AND admissions, I'm not sure I agree just yet but I do feel we're much closer than prior especially w/ the evidence to support getting infected multiple times is rather low. Edited June 10, 2020 by JTagg7754 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mission27 Posted June 10, 2020 Share Posted June 10, 2020 47 minutes ago, WizeGuy said: Am I crazy for thinking Arizona should shutdown bars and casinos until they get their numbers under control? Or at the very least make masks a requirement for employees? I'm having a debate with someone on a hockey forum (One of you found my alter ego!) who tells me this is all part of the plan. That the state assumed surges like this would happen, and they have a surge plan in place to withstand the outbreak. I'm just a bit confused that the plan is to prepare for a surge, but completely ignore the spread. I mean- the positive case% has been increasing for the past 2-3 weeks. Perhaps I'm being to pessimistic, but with severe symptoms taking 8-12 days to progress- it may be wise to forecast and react to the spread rather than just embracing it. Its insane. 1500 cases a day in a state with 7 million people is a problem. That's about where Belgium peaked, Belgium has 11 million people and most per capita deaths in the world. There are basic common sense precautions that can hold off a surge without lockdown. Its working in a lot of places around the globe. Why some places in the US refuse to follow these is beyond me. But its strange that Arizona in particular is getting hit so hard while many other places following a similar playbook continue to see low case counts. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mission27 Posted June 10, 2020 Share Posted June 10, 2020 Just now, JTagg7754 said: I get that but I'm saying the spike in case is inevitable but I'll be looking for if there's a spike in hospital admissions due to the severity. If we see a spike in cases but not admissions, I agree w/ you that we should start to go w/ our daily lives. If we see a spike in cases AND admissions, I'm not sure I agree just yet but I do feel we're much closer than prior especially w/ the evidence to support getting infected multiple times is rather low. I dont think its inevitable on a large scale. Look at Italy, Spain, France, UK, etc. Europe is opening up and not seeing a spike for the most part. There are many factors at play, we need to hope that between weather, masks, banning large events and so on we can prevent a surge. Obviously in a country of 330 million people across 50 states + there are going to be better and worse areas 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BobbyPhil1781 Posted June 10, 2020 Share Posted June 10, 2020 (edited) 4 minutes ago, mission27 said: I dont think its inevitable on a large scale. Look at Italy, Spain, France, UK, etc. Europe is opening up and not seeing a spike for the most part. There are many factors at play, we need to hope that between weather, masks, banning large events and so on we can prevent a surge. Obviously in a country of 330 million people across 50 states + there are going to be better and worse areas I only think the spike is inevitable b/c of people not social distancing, not wearing masks, exerting a lot of physical energy, while yelling and screaming in MASSIVE crowds. I'm not concerned w/ opening up b/c that can be controlled. I'm concerned w/ people rioting and protesting b/c that cannot be controlled. It's up to the individuals and we've seen their lack of ability to properly follow basic safety guidelines. That is where my concern lies. Edited June 10, 2020 by JTagg7754 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WizeGuy Posted June 10, 2020 Share Posted June 10, 2020 10 minutes ago, mission27 said: Its insane. 1500 cases a day in a state with 7 million people is a problem. That's about where Belgium peaked, Belgium has 11 million people and most per capita deaths in the world. There are basic common sense precautions that can hold off a surge without lockdown. Its working in a lot of places around the globe. Why some places in the US refuse to follow these is beyond me. But its strange that Arizona in particular is getting hit so hard while many other places following a similar playbook continue to see low case counts. I haven't been following other states very closely, so this is just a wild guess, but AZ really said **** it and opened up bars, casinos, etc...with no mask requirements on May 14th. The numbers have slowly been rising, but have picked up steam the last week or two, so it seems it takes about a month for **** to snowball out of control. Have other states reopened later? Do they have a similar laissez-faire approach in policy with masks and opening of casinos and bars? It's extremely hot in Arizona, so I'm assuming a lot of the spread is occurring indoors due to these lack of rules. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WizeGuy Posted June 10, 2020 Share Posted June 10, 2020 10 minutes ago, JTagg7754 said: I only think the spike is inevitable b/c of people not social distancing, not wearing masks, exerting a lot of physical energy, while yelling and screaming in MASSIVE crowds. I'm not concerned w/ opening up b/c that can be controlled. I'm concerned w/ people rioting and protesting b/c that cannot be controlled. It's up to the individuals and we've seen their lack of ability to properly follow basic safety guidelines. That is where my concern lies. You're probably going to see spikes where the protesters didn't wear masks. To be honest, it's been nearly two weeks since the protests have started, and I haven't seen many spikes in positive% or hospitalizations in many areas, which tells me a majority of the protesters (who are more liberal, and probably stricter on mask wearing) are wearing their masks. Of course, we're not out of the woods yet. We'll know a lot more in the coming week, but still- so far, so good. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MWil23 Posted June 10, 2020 Share Posted June 10, 2020 2 minutes ago, WizeGuy said: You're probably going to see spikes where the protesters didn't wear masks. To be honest, it's been nearly two weeks since the protests have started, and I haven't seen many spikes in positive% or hospitalizations in many areas, which tells me a majority of the protesters (who are more liberal, and probably stricter on mask wearing) are wearing their masks. That, or, here's a thought: We've reached herd immunity/this isn't as serious as it was billed to be, as testing now shows positive cases in the U.S. dating back to early December of 2019. I can assure you that in Dayton and Columbus, a good many of the tens of thousands involved in the protests are NOT wearing masks and are not practicing social distancing. Source: Every livestream available Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BobbyPhil1781 Posted June 10, 2020 Share Posted June 10, 2020 6 minutes ago, WizeGuy said: You're probably going to see spikes where the protesters didn't wear masks. To be honest, it's been nearly two weeks since the protests have started, and I haven't seen many spikes in positive% or hospitalizations in many areas, which tells me a majority of the protesters (who are more liberal, and probably stricter on mask wearing) are wearing their masks. Of course, we're not out of the woods yet. We'll know a lot more in the coming week, but still- so far, so good. IIRC, it takes generally 6 days to start showing symptoms. After exhibiting symptoms, another week+ to start showing hospital grade symptoms so we're looking at roughly 2 weeks from the start of showing symptoms to requiring hospitalization. Protests began... 9 days ago? I am probably wrong there but regardless, we have the same line of thinking that the coming week will be very telling. Feel like I've said that too damn much these days..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BobbyPhil1781 Posted June 10, 2020 Share Posted June 10, 2020 5 minutes ago, MWil23 said: That, or, here's a thought: We've reached herd immunity/this isn't as serious as it was billed to be, as testing now shows positive cases in the U.S. dating back to early December of 2019. I can assure you that in Dayton and Columbus, a good many of the tens of thousands involved in the protests are NOT wearing masks and are not practicing social distancing. Source: Every livestream available I want you to be right for so many reasons and I really hope you are. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MWil23 Posted June 10, 2020 Share Posted June 10, 2020 Just now, JTagg7754 said: I want you to be right for so many reasons and I really hope you are. For the record, I'm 100% far from an expert and could very well be wrong, but my observations above are accurate and I think that the data over the next 10-14 days will be extremely telling and a very reliable indicator, especially when the aforementioned above coincide with other things that have started gradually opening (restaurants, movies, gyms, etc.). If there's not a spike, I'm not listening to a single "expert" on any of this that goes to the contrary, because the results will speak for themselves on what this is/isn't at this point and time. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LETSGOBROWNIES Posted June 10, 2020 Share Posted June 10, 2020 42 minutes ago, mission27 said: Why some places in the US refuse to follow these is beyond me. I mean, we all know why. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BobbyPhil1781 Posted June 10, 2020 Share Posted June 10, 2020 10 minutes ago, MWil23 said: For the record, I'm 100% far from an expert and could very well be wrong, but my observations above are accurate and I think that the data over the next 10-14 days will be extremely telling and a very reliable indicator, especially when the aforementioned above coincide with other things that have started gradually opening (restaurants, movies, gyms, etc.). If there's not a spike, I'm not listening to a single "expert" on any of this that goes to the contrary, because the results will speak for themselves on what this is/isn't at this point and time. Due to our mutual fandom, let's hope universities follow your line of thinking as well assuming that proves to be true. So is this the last time we get to say "the next two weeks will tell us a lot"? lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WizeGuy Posted June 10, 2020 Share Posted June 10, 2020 (edited) 24 minutes ago, MWil23 said: That, or, here's a thought: We've reached herd immunity/this isn't as serious as it was billed to be, as testing now shows positive cases in the U.S. dating back to early December of 2019. I can assure you that in Dayton and Columbus, a good many of the tens of thousands involved in the protests are NOT wearing masks and are not practicing social distancing. Source: Every livestream available The US as a whole will not reach herd immunity all at once. It's going to be an area by area basis. So while NYC may be feeling the effects of herd immunity since they got absolutely creamed, the midwest may have a ways to go. Just take a look at Arizona, Houston, etc... If anything caused a small positive % it's likely the virus was slowed down due to every state locking-down even when the virus wasnt prevalent in certain areas yet, and it may take time to become relevant again. Now that states are opening up you may see some areas go through a tough time until either A)the virus mutates B) some herd immunity is reached or c) policies are enforced to counter the surge. Of course- people wearing masks, the vulnerable isolating more, seasonality, better testing, more public awareness, and people not congregating inside as much may continue to slow the spread anyways. It's tough to say what the factors may be, but i believe a smart reopening plan that monitors the numbers is the best policy. All we know for sure is once this virus reaches an area with low immunity, then it has the ability to spread like wildfire. Early studies suggest it may burn itself out after doing that. One can hope... Edited June 10, 2020 by WizeGuy 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MWil23 Posted June 10, 2020 Share Posted June 10, 2020 4 minutes ago, JTagg7754 said: Due to our mutual fandom, let's hope universities follow your line of thinking as well assuming that proves to be true. So is this the last time we get to say "the next two weeks will tell us a lot"? lol I know that a lot of universities here in state are offering things like online only alternatives for those who are afraid for their safety/don't feel safe in class. I've seen others that are doing things like canceling fall break, canceling some other days off, and then having "no return to school after Thanksgiving" breaks, thus ending the semester early during an anticipated second wave and a potentially nasty flu season. 5 minutes ago, WizeGuy said: The US as a whole will not reach herd immunity all at once. It's going to be an area by area basis. So while NYC may be feeling the effects of herd immunity since they got absolutely creamed, the midwest may have a ways to go. Just take a look at Arizona, Houston, etc... If anything caused a small positive % it's likely the virus was slowed down due to every state locking-down even when the virus wasnt prevalent in certain areas yet, and it may take time to become relevant again. Now that states are opening up you may see some areas go through a tough time until either A)the virus mutates B) some herd immunity is reached or c) policies are enforced to counter the surge. Of course- people wearing masks, the vulnerable isolating more, seasonality, better testing, more public awareness, and people not congregating inside as much may continue to slow the spread anyways. It's tough to say what the factors may be, but i believe a smart reopening plan that monitors the numbers is the best policy. All we know for sure is once this virus reaches an area with low immunity, then it's going to spread like wildfire. Early studies suggest it may burn itself out after doing that. One can hope... What I'm saying is merely this: Insinuating that if there's not a spike within the next 10-14 days is due to liberal areas involved in protests wearing masks, that's inherently untrue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vikesfan89 Posted June 10, 2020 Share Posted June 10, 2020 The protests were mostly outside which will help but even if they were wearing masks, they weren't exactly social distancing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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