ramssuperbowl99 Posted November 16, 2020 Share Posted November 16, 2020 2 minutes ago, vikesfan89 said: They really should give it to a bunch of college students who go partying every weekend This made me laugh because normal clinical trials with volunteers are roughly 95% retired people and college kids because that's who responds to those ads. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vikesfan89 Posted November 16, 2020 Share Posted November 16, 2020 2 minutes ago, ramssuperbowl99 said: This made me laugh because normal clinical trials with volunteers are roughly 95% retired people and college kids because that's who responds to those ads. So then it should be pretty accurate. Are they required to get tested though? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pwny Posted November 16, 2020 Share Posted November 16, 2020 5 minutes ago, vikesfan89 said: They really should give it to a bunch of college students who go partying every weekend It would likely increase the number from 5/15,000. But the reduction percentage of 5 out of every expected 90 will stay the same, and so would the reduction in severity. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vikesfan89 Posted November 16, 2020 Share Posted November 16, 2020 1 minute ago, pwny said: It would likely increase the number from 5/15,000. But the reduction percentage of 5 out of every expected 90 will stay the same, and so would the reduction in severity. Oic Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ramssuperbowl99 Posted November 16, 2020 Share Posted November 16, 2020 7 minutes ago, vikesfan89 said: So then it should be pretty accurate. Are they required to get tested though? No I mean it was just funny that you said "we should develop these drugs on college kids" because that's what we do with all of the other drugs anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vikesfan89 Posted November 16, 2020 Share Posted November 16, 2020 4 minutes ago, ramssuperbowl99 said: No I mean it was just funny that you said "we should develop these drugs on college kids" because that's what we do with all of the other drugs anyway. I'm glad that you are able to laugh at my expense Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ramssuperbowl99 Posted November 16, 2020 Share Posted November 16, 2020 2 minutes ago, vikesfan89 said: I'm glad that you are able to laugh at my expense Sorry if you got that impression, I was laughing with you not at you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pwny Posted November 16, 2020 Share Posted November 16, 2020 2 hours ago, ramssuperbowl99 said: For herd immunity general stuff, this is fairly math-heavy but is interesting to me: https://academic.oup.com/cid/article/52/7/911/299077 So we were originally expecting 70% inoculation of a 70% effective drug to get this under control, right? Assuming that’s correct, what would a 94.5% efficacy drop us towards needing? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ramssuperbowl99 Posted November 16, 2020 Share Posted November 16, 2020 3 minutes ago, pwny said: So we were originally expecting 70% inoculation of a 70% effective drug to get this under control, right? Assuming that’s correct, what would a 94.5% efficacy drop us towards needing? We needed 66-75% total immunity to have this under control at a base level. That'd correspond to 70-80% compliance. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shanedorf Posted November 16, 2020 Share Posted November 16, 2020 7 minutes ago, ramssuperbowl99 said: We needed 66-75% total immunity to have this under control at a base level. That'd correspond to 70-80% compliance. Two things happening - vaccines being approved and readied for distribution while simultaneously thousands/millions are getting infected every day. That means the supply is growing and the demand is declining. I'd think/hope we'd move toward herd immunity faster than the compliance-only numbers might suggest 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vikesfan89 Posted November 16, 2020 Share Posted November 16, 2020 17 minutes ago, ramssuperbowl99 said: Sorry if you got that impression, I was laughing with you not at you. I generally just assume people are laughing at me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeT14 Posted November 16, 2020 Share Posted November 16, 2020 3 hours ago, BobbyPhil1781 said: Don't think anyone really knows this just yet. Rumors are front line then elderly IIRC. Don't take my word on this though Makes sense to me. I can wait longer if it means they go first. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ramssuperbowl99 Posted November 16, 2020 Share Posted November 16, 2020 8 minutes ago, Shanedorf said: Two things happening - vaccines being approved and readied for distribution while simultaneously thousands/millions are getting infected every day. That means the supply is growing and the demand is declining. I'd think/hope we'd move toward herd immunity faster than the compliance-only numbers might suggest Yes, if the real fraction of the population infected already is at 10 or 20%, then those people would count as immunized (even though we'd dose a bunch of them regardless). This gets complicated quickly if we get under the hood. We have people who are already immune, we aren't vaccinating the population randomly, etc. etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TXsteeler Posted November 16, 2020 Share Posted November 16, 2020 Man the numbers are getting so bad here in Texas, my school district’s self imposed metrics for when school is safe in person are all in the danger zone and no word on going back to virtual. I’m worried news of a vaccine on the horizon (but months away) mixed with holiday breaks will keep them from making any decisions until after the new year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MWil23 Posted November 16, 2020 Share Posted November 16, 2020 Prediction for DeWine's address here in Ohio on Wednesday: *Mandatory virtual education for K-12 for the remainder of 2020 *No in person dining/drinking for bars and restaurants...outside (November/December in OH, LOL) and carry out only *Gyms/Fitness centers will stay OPEN *MAYBE a mandatory 10PM-6AM curfew *No idea on a statement of non college and/or professional athletics Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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